Environmental stresses | Accuracy of prediction | |
Present limit | Ultimate limit | |
Natural climate variability | ||
Occurrence of drought, etc | Low | Moderate |
Human-induced climatic change | ||
Temperature | Significant | Significant |
Precipitation, evaporation, etc | Low | Moderate |
Monsoon dislocation, etc | Low | Moderate |
Global sea level | Moderate | Significant |
Land degradation | ||
Soil erosion, salinization, etc | Moderate | Significant |
Physical, chemical and biological processes | Significant | High |
Desertification | Significant | High |
Mismanagement of land resources | ||
Overexploitation | Moderate | Significant |
Deforestation | Moderate | High |
Loss of arable land | ||
Loss due to urbanization, industry, etc | Significant | High |
Natural disasters | ||
Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc | Very low | Low |
Table 2: Approximate levels of accuracy of predictions of environmental factors over a period of about one decade: a) that can be achieved today; and, b) the expected ultimate level.