Environmental stresses Accuracy of prediction
Present limit Ultimate limit
Natural climate variability
Occurrence of drought, etc Low Moderate
Human-induced climatic change
Temperature Significant Significant
Precipitation, evaporation, etc Low Moderate
Monsoon dislocation, etc Low Moderate
Global sea level Moderate Significant
Land degradation
Soil erosion, salinization, etc Moderate Significant
Physical, chemical and biological processes Significant High
Desertification Significant High
Mismanagement of land resources
Overexploitation Moderate Significant
Deforestation Moderate High
Loss of arable land
Loss due to urbanization, industry, etc Significant High
Natural disasters
Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc Very low Low

Table 2: Approximate levels of accuracy of predictions of environmental factors over a period of about one decade: a) that can be achieved today; and, b) the expected ultimate level.