Influencing factors Contribution to risk of migration Approximate level of predictability
Negative impacts
Population pressure High High
Land degradation High Significant
Natural climatic variability High Moderate
Human-induced climate change... Significant Moderate
and its effects on water availability Significant Moderate
Loss of agricultural land Significant Moderate
Chemical and biotic stresses Moderate Moderate
Feedback processes (see Figure 1) Low Low
Positive impacts
Increased fertilizer use High Significant
Agricultural land gain by deforestation and reserve use Significant Moderate
Management improvements, new technologies, etc Significant Moderate
Increase of irrigation Moderate Moderate
Biotechnology Moderate Low
Other factors
Socio-economic Significant Moderate
Political Moderate Low

Table 3: Rankings of the relative importance of the factors having an influence on food production, and thereby on the risk of large-scale migration, and the level of predictability of these factors.