Influencing factors | Contribution to risk of migration | Approximate level of predictability |
Negative impacts | ||
Population pressure | High | High |
Land degradation | High | Significant |
Natural climatic variability | High | Moderate |
Human-induced climate change... | Significant | Moderate |
and its effects on water availability | Significant | Moderate |
Loss of agricultural land | Significant | Moderate |
Chemical and biotic stresses | Moderate | Moderate |
Feedback processes (see Figure 1) | Low | Low |
Positive impacts | ||
Increased fertilizer use | High | Significant |
Agricultural land gain by deforestation and reserve use | Significant | Moderate |
Management improvements, new technologies, etc | Significant | Moderate |
Increase of irrigation | Moderate | Moderate |
Biotechnology | Moderate | Low |
Other factors | ||
Socio-economic | Significant | Moderate |
Political | Moderate | Low |
Table 3: Rankings of the relative importance of the factors having an influence on food production, and thereby on the risk of large-scale migration, and the level of predictability of these factors.