BREAKDOWN OF LA NIÑA LIKELY: NEED TO MONITOR KEY EL NIÑO INDICATORS AND OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION
Statement issued by participants at the workshop Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Southeast Asia, Hanoi, Vietnam, 23rd February 2000
The latest evidence from oceanographic and atmospheric information from across the equatorial Pacific Ocean is suggesting that the current La Niña pattern will soon wane. Ocean-atmosphere model predictions, together with our understanding of the normal course of the life cycle of La Niña, suggest that the current La Niña will fade out by about June 2000.
Some predictions suggest that there is potential for warming of the ocean in the central and eastern Pacific beyond June 2000. Such warming would indicate a shift toward an El Niño phase (that is, the opposite pattern to La Niña) developing the second half of the year 2000, though of unknown magnitude at this stage.
It should be emphasized that the forecasts that are being made by some agencies of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean this year are being produced while most indicators are still at a pre-development stage. Therefore, there still exists some time for conditions to take a different course over the next three months to May 2000.
Nevertheless, it is strongly suggested that local meteorological, climatological and other institutions, as a precautionary response to this assessment, should monitor key parameters, such as sea surface temperature and other El Niño indicators, very closely over the next three to six months in order to gauge the further potential, or otherwise, of El Niño development later this year.
It is further recommended that effective communication channels between local meteorological and climatological agencies, other relevant agencies and stakeholders in potentially-affected sectors be set up with some urgency in order to facilitate appropriate means of dissemination of warnings and other information and, if it proves necessary, more concerted action at a later date.