Regional adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and key concerns



Africa

Adaptive capacity of human systems in Africa is low due to lack of economic resources and technology, and vulnerability high as a result of heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, frequent droughts and floods, and poverty.

Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high confidence).

Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa (medium confidence).

Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely affect human health in Africa (medium confidence).

Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, North, and West Africa (medium confidence).

Increases in droughts, floods, and other extreme events would add to stresses on water resources, food security, human health, and infrastructures, and would constrain development in Africa (high confidence).

Significant extinctions of plant and animal species are projected and would impact rural livelihoods, tourism, and genetic resources (medium confidence).

Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and along the East-Southern African coast would be adversely impacted by sea-level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence).

Asia

Adaptive capacity of human systems is low and vulnerability is high in the developing countries of Asia; the developed countries of Asia are more able to adapt and less vulnerable.

Extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia, including floods, droughts, forest fires, and tropical cyclones (high confidence).

Decreases in agricultural productivity and aquaculture due to thermal and water stress, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, and tropical cyclones would diminish food security in many countries of arid, tropical, and temperate Asia; agriculture would expand and increase in productivity in northern areas (medium confidence).

Runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia but increase in northern Asia (medium confidence).

Human health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases and heat stress in parts of Asia (medium confidence).

Sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia; increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood risks in temperate and tropical Asia (high confidence).

Climate change would increase energy demand, decrease tourism attraction, and influence transportation in some regions of Asia (medium confidence).

Climate change would exacerbate threats to biodiversity due to land-use and land-cover change and population pressure in Asia (medium confidence).

Sea-level rise would put ecological security at risk, including mangroves and coral reefs (high confidence).

Poleward movement of the southern boundary of the permafrost zones of Asia would result in a change of thermokarst and thermal erosion with negative impacts on social infrastructure and industries (medium confidence).

Latin America

Adaptive capacity of human systems in Latin America is low, particularly with respect to extreme climate events, and vulnerability is high.

Loss and retreat of glaciers would adversely impact runoff and water supply in areas where glacier melt is an important water source (high confidence).

Floods and droughts would become more frequent with floods increasing sediment loads and degrade water quality in some areas (high confidence).

Increases in intensity of tropical cyclones would alter the risks to life, property, and ecosystems from heavy rain, flooding, storm surges, and wind damages (high confidence).

Yields of important crops are projected to decrease in many locations in Latin America, even when the effects of CO2 are taken into account; subsistence farming in some regions of Latin America could be threatened (high confidence).

The geographical distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases would expand poleward and to higher elevations, and exposures to diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and cholera will increase (medium confidence).

Coastal human settlements, productive activities, infrastructure, and mangrove ecosystems would be negatively affected by sea-level rise (medium confidence).

The rate of biodiversity loss would increase (high confidence).

Small Island States

Adaptive capacity of human systems is generally low in small island states, and vulnerability high; small island states are likely to be among the countries most seriously impacted by climate change.

The projected sea-level rise of 5 mm yr--1 for the next 100 years would cause enhanced coastal erosion, loss of land and property, dislocation of people, increased risk from storm surges, reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources, and high resource costs to respond to and adapt to these changes (high confidence).  

Islands with very limited water supplies are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the water balance (high confidence).

Coral reefs would be negatively affected by bleaching and by reduced calcification rates due to higher CO2 levels (medium confidence); mangrove, sea grass bed, and other coastal ecosystems and the associated biodiversity would be adversely affected by rising temperatures and accelerated sea-level rise (medium confidence).

Declines in coastal ecosystems would negatively impact reef fish and threaten reef fisheries, those who earn their livelihoods from reef fisheries, and those who rely on the fisheries as a significance food source (medium confidence).

Limited arable land and soil salinization makes agriculture of small island states, both for domestic food production and cash crop exports, highly vulnerable to climate change (high confidence).  

Tourism, an important source of income and foreign exchange for many islands, would face severe disruption from climate change and sea-level rise (high confidence).