Policy ResponsesPolicy ResponsesAlthough concerted international action to curb greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the rate of warming, the emission reductions required to halt global warming are so great that they are unlikely to be achieved in the near future. For this reason, it is crucial that consideration be given to means of adapting to the changing environment.
As climate alters and sea level rises, the response of society will crucially affect the ultimate impact on human welfare. That response may take many forms: for example, the implementation of new technology, changes in policy and practice, institutional reform or the migration of habitats, cropping patterns and peoples.
The prompt adoption of measures to ease the process of adaptation is essential if the impact of adverse consequences is to be minimized and advantage is to be taken of beneficial effects.
In some areas, where planning time scales are relatively short, environmental change may well be accommodated as it occurs. In other areas such as the protection of natural resources, irrigation, agricultural land use, coastal engineering and energy planning planning time scales are of the order of decades and anticipation of change will be crucial.
For example, the development of a national system of nature reserves may be jeopardized if migration corridors are not established or a wide range of habitats contained in each reserve. Energy projects must plan for the possibility that hydropower potential may not be realized if climate change alters rainfall patterns, evaporation rates and run-off. Coastal planning must consider the implications of sea level rise and changing erosion rates.
Planning for environmental change is, however, rendered difficult by the many uncertainties which affect estimates of the impact of global warming. It is not yet possible to plan for any specific change in the environment, although general areas of impact are clear.
In the absence of detailed predictions, ensuring flexibility and improving resilience represent effective means of easing adaptation. Ensuring flexibility will increase options in the face of climate change and sea level rise. Improving resilience - the degree to which natural and human systems can cope with environmental stress - will reduce impacts whatever their nature may be.
The suitability of different adaptive strategies will vary from region to region, depending on the nature of the impact, resource availability and the prevailing social and economic conditions. Experience indicates that a local approach to planning for change is likely to be the most effective. This implies the active awareness of involvement of local scientists, engineers, planners and communities. Education and community participation will be critical factors in ensuring an effective response.
Areas in which adaptive responses to global warming should be considered.
Adaptation is often a traumatic process triggered by disaster rather than a gradual process of adjustment. As it is likely that there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme events as global warming develops, it is important that immediate consideration be given to the effectiveness of current strategies for disaster relief.
A variety of adaptive responses have been recommended. Some are likely to prove costly whilst others can be achieved with a very modest investment. The pragmatism of the Vietnamese people in adapting to past difficulties with limited resources should prove of great value in the identification of appropriate adaptive responses.
Many of the measures that could be taken to ease adaptation to the changing environment are consistent with the principles of sustainable development... "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
Measures such as these would be of immediate benefit, reducing vulnerability to present-day social, economic or environmental threats whatever the ultimate impact of global warming. They represent a sensible first step in a precautionary response to adapting to climate change.
Source
Karas, J. H. W., and Kelly, P. M. (1989) The Heat Trap. Friends of the Earth, London
"Policy Responses: Implications for Vietnam"
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