The challenge of global environmental change
Dr. P. Mick Kelly
Climatic Research Unit and Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom. Tel: 44 1603 592 722. Fax: 44 1603 507 784. Email: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk.
Abstract of paper presented at the conference Environmental Change and Vulnerability: Lessons from Vietnam and the Indochina Region, Hanoi, Vietnam, April 4-5th 1998.
Difficult decisions may have to be made if we are ensure economic growth at the same time as protecting the environment, if we are to achieve the goal of sustainable development.
In the past, our activities could only affect the local environment. We could see the effects clearly and perhaps we would prevent the worst damage. But now we have the power to affect the environment on a global scale — to change global climate, to destroy the ozone layer, to damage fertile ecosystems and lands, and pollute the world’s seas. We have created the new threat of global environmental change. A threat that is large-scale and long-term.
The problem we must address is this — If human, technical and financial resources are limited, how can we meet important present-day needs and also protect the environment for the future? There is another problem — We do not understand global environmental change very well. It is a difficult and complex subject. We cannot predict its effects with certainty. How can we plan for the future when the future is uncertain? But if we wait until we have better predictions, it will be too late too act.
One approach to resolving these problems is to look for win-win policies and strategies. For example, policies which reduce local environmental problems in the present-day and so have immediate benefits — and at the same time reduce the long-term effect of global environmental change. We should try to reduce vulnerability to present-day environmental problems, and then we will be able to cope more effectively with long-term global environmental change.
As scientists, we have a responsibility to provide good advice to the communities that we serve. It is our role to provide a balanced and realistic assessment of the environmental threats faced by society so that rational decisions can be made and effective solutions found.
The scientists of Vietnam have already made an important contribution to many international projects on global environmental change. They have learned of new techniques and approaches and at the same time they have taught their international colleagues about the special circumstances of Vietnam and of their own understanding of the environment. This is an important two-way flow of information and understanding. It is of mutual benefit.
We hope that this conference will lead to further cooperation, between scientists in the Indochina region though the new network that we are forming, and with scientists in other countries. This is how we must fight global environmental change, as a global community of nations.