Tiempo Climate Newswatch

African commentators have welcomed the Montreal commitment to formal talks on a post-Kyoto greenhouse gas regime, which should secure the future of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). "This is a significant victory in the context of these highly contested negotiations," said Richard Worthington of the South African Climate Action Network. "While overall progress to limit global greenhouse gas emissions is still unacceptably slow, these outcomes offer the possibility of multilateral actions, within the shrinking window of opportunity, sufficient to avert a climate chaos that would give rise to hundreds of millions of environmental refugees."

There is, however, concern that Africa will be excluded from the major benefits of an expansion in CDM projects. Ken Newcombe, who pioneered carbon trading at the World Bank, says the European Union has discriminated against Africa by prohibiting investment in forestry and agriculture projects, creating "effectively a trade barrier against the poor." Lwazikazi Tyani, head of South Africa's CDM authority, reckons that the timescale of major energy projects and the fact the few African countries have national CDM certification authority yet "locks much of Africa out of the benefits of CDM."

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Further comment

• All Africa

• Youba Sokona and Djimingué Nanasta, ENDA-TM

Three environmental organizations have filed a law suit seeking protection for the polar bear under the United States Endangered Species Act. If the lawsuit is successful, the polar bear will become the first species officially recognized as at risk from climate change. "Global warming and rising temperatures in the Arctic jeopardize the polar bear's very existence. Polar bears cannot survive without sea ice." said Melanie Duchin, a Greenpeace spokesperson.

"As global warming continues, more bears are going to die. This is very predictable, it's common sense... They can't survive if their habitat disappears," said Kassie Siegel of the Center for Biological Diversity. "To ensure these bears survive, we need to reduce the pollution that is melting their habitat. The Endangered Species Act is a safety net for plants and animals facing extinction. Listing will provide important protections for this majestic animal."

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• Earth Times
• ENN

• Polar bear, Center for Biological Diversity

Climate modellers predict that global warming could melt almost all of the Arctic permafrost lying within 3.5 metres of the soil surface by the end of the century. David Lawrence of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States warns that "there's a lot of carbon stored in the soil. If the permafrost does thaw, as our model predicts, it could have a major influence on climate." The carbon will be released as thawed vegetation decomposes.

The Arctic permafrost stores about 30 per cent of global soil carbon. Lawrence reckons that "in terms of its impact on the global climate, I don't see how it can be good news, but just how bad it is is unclear. It's very difficult to see how we can halt it. We may be able to slow it down." Reducing emissions could cut the permafrost loss from a 90 per cent decline, under a high-emissions scenario, to close to 60 per cent under a low-emissions scenario. The melting permafrost would also release large amounts of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean and this could affect global ocean currents.

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• Guardian
• ENS

• Press release, NCAR
• Research article (1.3Mb download), NCAR