Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Greenhouse gas emissions from the economies in transition (EITs) of eastern and central Europe grew by 4.1 per cent over the period 2000-2004, according to the latest data compiled by the Climate Change Secretariat. "This means that industrialized countries will need to intensify their efforts to implement strong policies which reduce greenhouse gas emissions," warned executive secretary Yvo de Boer. Over the period 1990-2004, total emissions from the industrialized nations have fallen by 3.3 per cent. Much of this, though, has been due to massive declines in emissions from the EITs during the 1990s, a trend that has now been reversed.

The 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, consisting of the second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP2), in conjunction with the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP12), is taking place from November 6-17th in Nairobi, Kenya. Some delegates doubt that much progress will be made at these sessions. But "the clock is ticking," says Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme. "We are in fact in some ways with our backs against the wall if you want to have a post-2012 regime in place. We need to keep moving." While arguing that "we need to act very urgently or it's going to get very expensive," Yvo de Boer, who leads the Climate Change Secretariat, told Reuters that there is no pressure yet to set a deadline for completing a post-Kyoto agreement.

The Stern Review of climate economics, released last week, has received criticism from a number of quarters. Not surprisingly, the Australian government, which has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, rejected the report's conclusions. Arguing that an effective international agreement must include all nations, Prime Minister John Howard told coalition members of parliament not to get "mesmerized" by one report. "If everybody is in, I am prepared to lead Australia in," he said. "But I am not prepared to lead Australia into an agreement that is going to betray the interests of the working men and women of this country and destroy the natural advantage that providence gave us." The United States vigorously defended its position as the report was launched. White House spokesman Tony Snow said that President Bush "has, in fact, contrary to stereotype, been actively engaged in trying to fight climate change and will continue to do so."

Christian Aid welcomed the Stern Review but warned that its conclusions would not lead to adequate protection for millions of poor people. "Talk of economic dangers is all very well but a real danger still remains for poor people in the developing world whose futures depend on our willingness to act," commented Christian Aid's Andrew Pendleton. "If we follow the report's conclusions, we may avert economic bankruptcy but we will still be teetering on the brink of moral bankruptcy." Christian Aid is concerned that Stern dismisses a carbon dioxide equivalent stabilization level of 450 parts per million as too expensive, but, in reality, poor people are already struggling to cope with existing climate change as a result of an atmosphere polluted with 430ppm. At Stern's higher target levels, "large parts of the developing world would be exposed to a much greater risk of disaster and misery," Pendleton said.

A new report from the World Bank argues that, if left standing to provide carbon storage, forests may be worth five times as much as when felled. "The trees are worth more alive, storing carbon, than they would be worth if burned and transformed to unproductive fields," says lead author Kenneth Chomitz. "Right now, people living at the forest’s edge can’t tap that value." Tropical deforestation accounts for about a fifth of carbon emissions, with five per cent or more of these forests lost a decade. "By the middle of the century, vast tropical forests may be reduced to just shreds of what they once were," warns Chomitz.

"Global carbon finance can be a powerful incentive to stop deforestation," according to François Bourguignon at the World Bank. "Compensation for avoiding deforestation could help developing countries to improve forest governance and boost rural incomes, while helping the world at large to mitigate climate change more vigorously." Kathy Sierra, also with the World Bank, reckons that a "comprehensive framework that integrates sustainable forest management into the global strategy for mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity" is needed. The report considers approaches to limiting deforestation in different forest areas, designed to tackle problems specific to each region.