Tiempo Climate Newswatch

"Climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face," said Kenyan environment minister Kivutha Kibwana, president of the 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, opening the meeting. "We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of Africa," he continued. The first week of the conference saw disagreement between delegates on the deadline for agreeing a post-Kyoto accord, with targets ranging from the end of 2008, through 2009 to 2010. The fact the United States President George W Bush steps down in January 2009 may prove a critical factor.

"I think it's important to the market that an agreement is reached without delay," said Ron Levi of brokers GFI. "Frustration is justified," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "It's going slowly. The problem is that countries' interests conflict in a number of areas." Harlan Watson, United States climate negotiator, said that he did not see any change in policy as a result of the mid-term elections that saw the Republican Party lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Australia won the initial Fossil of the Day award from the Climate Action Network by comparing Australian vulnerability to climate change to that of Africa and the Pacific island nations.

A new report, Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa, finds that small, rain-fed crop and livestock subsistence farming systems in arid and semi-arid areas are the communities most vulnerable to climate change in Africa. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and large parts of Niger and Chad are particularly at risk. "While a peasant farmer may not understand climate change, he appreciates that it is increasingly becoming difficult to time the planting seasons as rainfall is unpredictable," commented Beneah Daniel Odhiambo, from Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya. "As a result, there is high crop failure resulting in famine in many parts of Africa. Prolonged seasons of drought also cause the migration of people to other areas and is a potential source of conflict between communities competing for scarce resources."

"People will experience great problems unless there is investment in adaptation options," warns Mario Herrero of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya, the institution that led the project. The report concludes that Africa must learn to adapt to the world's changing climate if lives and livelihoods are to be saved. "These findings present an immense challenge," said ILRI's Tom Owiyo. "Climate change presents a global ethical challenge as well as a development, scientific and organizational challenge in Africa."

Two new reports define management approaches that could help two vulnerable ecosystems, mangroves and coral reefs, cope with climate change and other stresses. Published by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Nature Conservancy, the reports "give a clear positive message: while we cannot stop climate change in the short term, we can help tropical marine ecosystems survive. If reef managers and politicians follow the measures proposed in these publications, we may be able to reverse the trend," says Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of IUCN's Global Marine Programme.

The proposed measures are intended to keep other disturbances and threats away, making these ecosystems healthier and thus more resilient to climate impacts. "We need to minimize human impacts such as pollution, overfishing or unsustainable coastal development. Then the coral reefs have a bigger chance of coming back after bleaching and of adapting to rising sea temperatures or more acid waters," according to Gabriel Grimsditch of IUCN. Particularly healthy and climate-change-resilient sites should be protected as these may be able to help restore degraded coral reefs and mangroves in the future. Monitoring of coral reefs before, during and after a bleaching event is needed to raise awareness amongst managers and politicians.