Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Ten thousand American scientists have signed a statement protesting political interference in the scientific process. Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists, the statement has the backing of 52 Nobel Laureates. "It's very difficult to make good public policy without good science, and it's even harder to make good public policy with bad science," said Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security. "In the last several years, we've seen an increase in both the misuse of science and I would say an increase of bad science in a number of very important issues; for example, in global climate change, international peace and security, and water resources."

The Union of Concerned Scientists has compiled an 'A to Z' guide that documents recent allegations of censorship and political interference in federal science. In the area of climate change, the guide cites a case uncovered in 2003 when the Bush administration tried to make a series of changes to a draft report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA report stated that human activity is contributing significantly to climate change. According to an internal EPA memo, White House officials demanded so many qualifying words such as "potentially" and "may" that the result would have been to insert "uncertainty... where there is essentially none."

"It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone intensity will occur if the climate continues to warm" is the consensus view of an international group of 125 experts. The group also described an "increase in precipitation associated with [tropical cyclone] systems" in a warmer climate as a "robust result" of recent research. Meeting in Costa Rica in November 2006 at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the group underlined the complexities that affect long-term prediction of cyclone characteristics and called for more research on the link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity as many important issues remain unresolved. Nevertheless, the closing words of the workshop statement observe that "despite the diversity of research opinions on this issue it is agreed that if there has been a recent increase in tropical cyclone activity that is largely anthropogenic in origin, then humanity is faced with a substantial and unanticipated threat."

The scientists stress that "no individual events in [recent] years can be attributed directly to the recent warming of the global oceans." They conclude that the continuous increase in economic damage and disruption caused by tropical cyclones in recent decades is largely the result of increasing coastal populations, increasing insured values in coastal areas and, possibly, rising sensitivity of modern societies to infrastructure disruption. The workshop statement warns that "for developing countries large loss of human life will continue as the increasing coastal populations are a result of population growth and social factors that are not easily countered."

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is launching an initiative, ClimDev Africa, aimed at providing vital climate information for development needs in Africa. The ten-year programme, which will be African-led, will cost about US$200 million. "African countries and people are subject to severe drought, flooding, food shortages and disease. And, most of these natural disasters are related to climate. Africa is also lagging [behind] the rest of the world in terms of development," says GCOS official William Westermeyer. The aim of the initiative is to improve climate monitoring and risk management.

The strategy will be to provide the climate information needed to manage more effectively crises, such as severe drought and flooding, linked to climate change. "With regard to health, malaria is a very big thing. And, it turns out with better climate information, particularly knowing about things like the onset of a new El Niño for example, you can predict where malaria outbreaks are likely to occur several months in advance. With better information, that can help you prepare those areas to avoid the worst impacts," Westermeyer observes. GCOS is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization.