Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The latest round of the climate negotiations, held in Bonn, Germany, ended in deadlock with the United States warning that it was unlikely to take part in discussions at the end of this year on a global agreement to cut carbon emissions. "I think there's a lot going on," said Harlan Watson, the United States chief negotiator, "but I certainly wouldn't want to raise expectations, however, that there's going to be some sort of a new negotiation under the framework convention itself."

Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, put a positive gloss on the meeting. "We have come closer to broadening negotiations on a post-2012 regime by resolving some of the outstanding issues and clarifying which building blocks of a future agreement need to be put in place," he said. Hans Verolme of WWF was not so sanguine: "Two weeks of business-as-usual talks leave us wondering what it will take for governments to respond to the alarm bells." Meanwhile, the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development failed to reach agreement at its latest negotiating session after disagreement on the nature and scope of the sustainable development agenda. The future of the Kyoto Protocol proved a major stumbling block, with the United States, Canada and Australia opposing legally-binding emissions reductions.

The worst effects of global warming can be averted through investment in clean energy as long as the move away from fossil fuels starts in the next five years, according to a new report from WWF. Solar, wind and other environment-friendly energy sources could meet the world's growing energy needs while keeping the global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius. If action is not taken over the next five years, "dangerously unsustainable options may be forced upon us or we will face more severe interventions which will have significant impacts on the global economy," the report warns.

The report identifies six key approaches: improving energy efficiency; stopping forest loss; accelerating the development of low-emissions technologies; developing flexible fuels; replacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon gas; and equipping fossil-fuel plants with carbon capture and storage technology. Nuclear expansion is not considered a viable response because of concerns about plant safety, waste disposal and the possible proliferation of nuclear technology. The study shows that "there are more than sufficient benign technologies available, without embarking further on nuclear power with its many associated risks." Nuclear investment would divert resources away from more promising and cost-effective solutions, such as renewable technologies. The report also excludes the use of certain forms of biomass development, such as large-scale energy crops on newly-converted forest land, and unsustainable hydro projects.

Christian Aid warns that countries world-wide will face the greatest forced migration ever over the next four decades because of the impact of global warming. People may also be displaced as biofuel demand drives the development of grain-producing plantations in poor countries. "We believe that forced migration is now the most urgent threat facing poor people in the developing world," said John Davison, author of the Christian Aid report.

The report predicts that, between now and the year 2050, a total of one billion people will be displaced from their homes. The projection includes 645 million people who will migrate because of development projects and 250 million because of events linked to global warming such as floods, droughts and famine. Christian Aid is calling for the establishment of a US$100 billion a year fund to help vulnerable countries adapt to sea level rise and climate change. "The alternative, as this report seeks to highlight," warns Christian Aid, "is a desperate situation that could destabilize whole regions - plunging them further into poverty and conflict."