Tiempo Climate Newswatch

One of the most comprehensive analyses of the global energy challenge in decades warns of "accumulating risks" to energy production, including growing constraints on carbon dioxide emissions. Conducted by the National Petroleum Council (NPC), which represents the American oil industry, the draft review calls on the government to "provide an effective, global framework for carbon management, including the establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for carbon dioxide."

The NPC assessment breaks with the dominant petroleum industry view in the United States that technological advances and fresh discoveries will make oil a reliable energy source for some time. To tackle the challenge of meeting projected energy demand, the report also recommends moderating demand growth by "increasing efficiency in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial uses," expanding and diversifying energy production, integrating energy in all other related policy areas, including trade, economic, environmental, security and foreign policy, and boosting R&D efforts. "The world will need better energy efficiency and all economic, environmentally responsible energy sources available to support and sustain future growth," the review concludes.

Small glaciers and ice caps, as they thaw, may account for as much as 60 per cent of the sea-level rise at present, according to Mark Meier of the University of Colorado-Boulder and collaborators. "We think the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) substantially under-estimated the contribution of small glaciers and ice caps, and may have over-estimated the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet," reported Meier. The new study predicts a worst-case scenario of a sea-level rise close to one metre by the year 2100, double the IPCC estimate.

There is a "widely held view that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will be the principal causes of sea-level rise," Meier said, "but we show that it is the glaciers and ice caps, not the two large ice sheets, that will be the big players in sea rise for at least the next few generations." The main contribution will come from the glaciers of Alaska, Canada, Russia and Scandinavia because of rapid changes in the way they flow, As they thin, these glaciers flow more easily towards the sea. Co-author at the University of Colorado-Boulder, Robert Anderson, argues that, "while this is a dynamic, complex process and does not seem to be a direct result of climate warming, it is likely that climate acts as a trigger to set off this dramatic response."

Several coastal cities in northeast United States, including New York, face a huge increase in flood risk by the end of the century if global warming continues, according to a new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Atlantic City, a resort in New Jersey, could be flooded every two years by the year 2100. "Global warming represents an enormous challenge, but we can meet it if we act swiftly," said UCS's Peter Frumhoff, chair of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment. "Our response to global warming in the next few years will shape the climate our children and grandchildren inherit."

David Wolfe, at Cornell University, warned that higher temperatures would limit fruit tree yields in New York State as these trees need a hard winter frost to help bud and fruit production. Maple, beech and birch trees could disappear from some parts of the state. Cities in the region could suffer through 25 days a year of temperatures above 38°Celsius if emissions are not cut, the report predicts, but the number could be cut to about a quarter of this figure if emissions are reduced considerably. UCS worked with 50 scientists and economists to produce the peer-reviewed report.