Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Returning greenhouse gas emissions to today's level by the year 2030 will cost more then US$200 billion annually, according to a new assessment from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat. Scientists have warned that emissions must peak during the second decade of this century if catastrophic consequences are to be avoided.

"The study shows us that a conscious effort to shift from traditional investment to more climate-friendly alternatives will require governments to adopt new policies and change the way they use their funds. The required shift in future investment and financial flows needs a combination of actions by the intergovernmental process under the UNFCCC and national governments," said Yvo de Boer, UNFCCC executive secretary. The estimated investment flows to developing countries in 2030 stand at 46 per cent of global needs, though the consequent emission reductions would amount to 68 per cent of the global total.

Zheng Guoguang, head of China's State Meteorological Administration, has predicted that global warming means that China may need an extra ten million hectares of farmland by 2030. By that time, the nation's population is expected to peak at 1.5 billion people, a rise of 0.2 billion from today, and this alone will require an extra 100 million tons of food.

"Global warming may cause the grain harvest to fall by five to ten per cent, that is by 30-50 million tons, by 2030," Zheng said. "Warmer weather will shorten the growth period of some grains and their seeds won't have enough time to ripen," he continued. Warmer winters could mean more crop-damaging insects survive the cold season, requiring costly pest control. The challenge will be to find additional cropland as cities expand and deserts spread. China became a net importer of food in 2004.

Japan and India have agreed to cooperate on environmental protection and energy security. Recognizing the "urgent need to address the issues of global warming and climate change", they will work towards a new flexible, fair and effective framework in which all nations can participate and collaborate on greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

During discussions, Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, asked his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh, to work with the international community to reduce global warming and sought India's support for Japan's Cool Earth 50 vision to halve greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. Singh responded that India will give "serious consideration" to post-Kyoto Protocol efforts to reduce emissions, though national efforts must not compromise economic progress. He said that social and economic growth and reducing poverty were as important as environmental issues for his country. While welcoming the Cool Earth 50 initiative, Abe had reservations about the 2050 goal.