Tiempo Climate Newswatch

In the aftermath of Typhoon Lekima, the Red Cross estimates that ten million people have been affected by recent storm damage and flooding in Vietnam. "We estimate that there are ten million people affected by floods in July, and ten million by the most recent floods," said Winnie Romeril, a spokeswoman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "A lot of people were displaced twice," she continued.

The flooding has been described as the worst in 45 years. More than 134,400 houses have been destroyed or damaged and more than 160,000 hectares of rice fields and other crops have been inundated. "The mountainous regions are facing killer flash floods while in the lowlands, standing water simply refuses to drain," said Joe Lowry of the International Federation.

Rachmat Witoelar, environment minister for Indonesia is confident that significant progress will be made at the climate negotiations in Bali in December. In particular, he reckons that the United States and Australia will reach a consensus on the way forward post-2012. Following talks with national representatives, he said that "it seems they don't mean any harm. They just want to have some things rearranged."

Meanwhile, Australia's environment minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has indicated that his government might ratify an amended Kyoto Protocol. "Australia is committed to a new, environmentally effective global agreement, and if it is global and effective and involves all the major emitters we would expect to sign it," he said. "Whether this new agreement is done by amending the Kyoto Protocol or by entering into a new protocol with another name remains to be seen - but that is a question of process only," he continued.

Computer modelling indicates that human activity is the likely cause of the observed rise in the amount of moisture in the air. The study, led by Kate Willett at Yale University in the United States, reveals that the starting point is an increase in evaporation as the world warms. Then, "warmer air can hold more moisture," says co-author Nathan Gillett of the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, United Kingdom, where the research was conducted.

The study made use of humidity measurements over land and ocean for the most recent thirty years. The observed trends were compared with the results of a climate model simulation that took account of both natural and human factors. The work complements recent findings by Benjamin Santer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States. "Natural variability in climate just can't explain this moisture change. The most plausible explanation is that it's due to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gases," comments Santer.