Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The Australian Defence Force is concerned that "environmental stress, caused by both climate change and a range of other factors, will act as a threat multiplier in fragile states around the world, increasing the chances of state failure." As a result, there may be a greater need for military involvement in stabilization, reconstruction and disaster relief.

The report concludes that it is unlikely that climate change will increase the risk of major conflict. The one exception is the "remote possibility" of conflict in the event that disputes over commercial resources in an ice-free Arctic are not resolved peacefully. The assessment was completed in December 2007, but has only just been made public under freedom of information laws.

A modification of conventional emissions trading schemes has been proposed by economist Brian Murray, at Duke University in the United States, and his collaborators. "It may well to turn out to be the kind of proposal that the new White House and the new Congress wind up converging on," commented Robert N Stavins at Harvard University.

To control the cost of emissions reduction, under the proposed hybrid cap-and-trade scheme, the government would hold back a proportion of carbon permits in order to enforce a ceiling price. By selling them at a predetermined price, Stavins said, "they will keep the price of allowances in the market from ever going above that level, thereby eliminating the upside cost uncertainty that has been of great concern to private industry."

Ethanol use causes the most damage to climate, land and wildlife in a recent study of large-scale energy solutions to global warming, air pollution and energy security. Eleven different energy sources were compared powering new-technology vehicles run on batteries, hydrogen fuel cells or ethanol. Wind power as a source of electricity for battery vehicles performed best, coming first in seven categories, "including the most important - mortality and climate damage reduction," said author Mark Jacobson from Stanford University in the United States.

Ethanol, derived from corn and cellulose, proved the least favourable option. "The biofuel options provide no certain benefit and result in significant negative impacts," Jacobson concludes in his report. This finding has, however, been criticized. For example, Magdi Tawfik Abdel Hamid at the National Research Centre in Cairo reckons that "including biofuel in the list of the worst energy options is not scientifically justified. Producing biofuel using seaweed in developing countries could be considered as a cheap, environmentally-friendly source for energy that doesn't endanger food security."