Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Growing seasons throughout Africa will be "hotter than any year in historical experience," according to a study by American researchers. "When we looked at where temperatures are headed, we found that for the majority of Africa's farmers, global warming will rapidly change conditions beyond the range of what occurs anywhere in their country," said Marshall Burke from Stanford University. Senegal, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Sierra Leone were found to be particularly at risk.

"This is not a situation like the failure of the banking system where we can move in after the fact and provide something akin to a bailout," said co-author Cary Fowler of the Global Crop Diversity Trust. "If we wait until it's too hot to grow maize in Chad and Mali, then it will be too late to avoid a disaster that could easily destabilize an entire region and beyond." Nations could anticipate future needs by stockpiling seeds from their neighbours. By mid-century, for example, local varieties of maize grown in Lesotho may no longer be viable as temperatures rise. Varieties from hotter climes, such as grown in Mali today, could be set aside and stockpiled to meet Lesotho's future needs.

Climate change has already had "visible impacts" in the United States and water resources, agriculture, health and coastal areas are particularly vulnerable, according to the latest assessment from the Global Change Research Program. "This report provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now and it's happening in our own backyards and it affects the kind of things people care about," said Jane Lubchenco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to the report, climate change will interact with many other social and environmental stresses, such as pollution, population growth, overuse of resources and urbanization, to create greater impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. Finally, the assessment concludes that future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today. "It tells us why remedial action is needed sooner rather than later," commented White House science adviser John Holdren.

The British government has published its latest assessment of potential climate impacts on the United Kingdom, UK Climate Projections 2009. The report concludes that, in the absence of global action to cut emissions, warmer and wetter winters, hotter and drier summers, increased risk of coastal erosion and more severe weather can be expected. Julia Slingo from the Met Office described the results as the world’s most comprehensive regional climate projections. "For the first time," she said, "businesses and other organizations have the tools to help them make risk-based decisions to adapt to the challenges of our changing climate."

Publication of the report marked the first step towards a five point plan to tackle climate change, the Department of Energy and Climate Change reported. The five points are protecting the public from immediate risk, preparing for the future, limiting the severity of future climate change through a new international climate agreement, building a low carbon United Kingdom and supporting individuals, communities and businesses to play their part. The government's blueprint for a new global climate deal will be published later this month and, in July, a new national strategy for climate and energy intended to meet domestic carbon reduction targets will be released.