Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The seven smallest islands in the Pacific Islands Forum have called for a 45 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by the year 2020, endorsing the position of the Alliance of Small Island States. The nations are worried about the "serious and growing threat posed by climate change to the economic, social, cultural and environmental well-being and security" of their populations. "As you drive along the roads along the coast, you will see coconut trees in the water - that's an indication of the sea level rise," said Tuvalu's prime minister Edward Natapei.

Civil society representatives from the most vulnerable countries (MVC), meeting in Bangladesh, have also called on the industrialized nations to reduce their emissions by 45 per cent by 2020. The Dhaka Declaration on climate change cites the need for at least US$150 billion a year funding from developed nations to avert environmental disasters in the most vulnerable countries. It asks parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to recognize the most vulnerable countries as a collective voice in the climate negotiations. "Only by working together can we ensure the climate deal meets the needs of the one billion people around the world who are least responsible for the climate crisis but who are being hit first and worst by its effects," said Ziaul Hoque Mukta from Oxfam.

China wants the industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent from 1990 levels by the year 2020. "We have all along believed that due to the historical responsibility of the developed nations, they must continue to take the lead with large reductions beyond 2012," said Yu Qingtai, lead climate negotiator. He called on the rich countries to produce concrete plans to finance technology transfers to assist developing nations limit emissions. Yu is "optimistic" that a deal can be struck regarding China's position within any future climate regime. "No one wants more than us to see the peak of China's emissions," he said. "This will not only be in the interests of the Chinese people but for the whole world."

At least one per cent of global GDP (gross domestic product) should be set aside by the rich nations to help developing nations conduct research on climate change, improve flood control, protect their coastlines, create seed banks and take other steps to cope with the severe storms and droughts, argue South Africa government officials. In return, developing nations promise action on climate change but "we do not believe we should have to put together any comprehensive plans until the finances start to flow," said Joanne Yawitch at the South African Department of Environmental Affairs. Rich countries should understand that it is in their interest to provide assistance, according to Hugh Cole of Oxfam. "In a globalized world, you can't have one continent, for example, Africa, getting hammered by climate change without it affecting the rest of the world," he said.

A team of European and American researchers has provided independent evidence that the sea-level rise predictions provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are in the right ballpark. Comparing temperature trends and sea-level fluctuations over the past 22,000 years, the team concludes that a warming of 6.4 degrees Celsius would lead to a sea-level rise of 82cm by the end of the 21st century, compared to the IPCC estimate of 76cm.

The IPCC estimates have been challenged by some analysts who claim that the contribution of glacial meltwater could generate a much larger rise in sea level, perhaps as much as a couple of metres over a 50 year period. "The fact that [our] number is smaller than other numbers does not mean that this is not potentially a massive and very important sea level rise," said team leader Mark Siddall, who is based at Bristol University in the United Kingdom. "Fifty centimetres of rise would be very, very dangerous for Bangladesh, it would be very dangerous for all low-lying areas. And not only that, the 50 centimetres is the global mean. Locally, it could be as high as a metre, perhaps even higher, because water is pushed into different places by the effect of gravity."