Tiempo Climate Newswatch

There are signs that expectations for the critical climate treaty talks in Copenhagen this December are being narrowed to avoid disappointment and discouragement. "There isn’t sufficient time to get the whole thing done," Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, said recently. "But I hope it will go well beyond simply a declaration of principles. The form I would like it to take is the groundwork for a ratifiable agreement next year." There is concern that forcing the pace might result in a treaty that is too weak to be effective or else so tough that it would not be ratified by some countries and could not be enforced.

It is possible that, alongside a high-level political commitment to halt and reverse the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, a new deadline for final agreement will be set for some time in 2010. A key barrier to agreement in Copenhagen is the fact that there will be no commitment to an emissions target by the United States Congress before the end of this year. Without that commitment, the United States negotiators' hands are tied. Key issues yet to be resolved include emissions targets for the industrialized nations, how developing countries will be brought into a global agreement and the longstanding matter of financial support for developing nations. Nevertheless, optimism remains. "Leaders must engage directly to break the impasse," urged Gordon Brown, British prime minister, last week. "I've said I'll go to Copenhagen, and I'm encouraging them to make the same commitment." Todd Stern, climate envoy for the United States, commented that "more progress needs to be made but we think that something can be done."

China and India have agreed to collaborate on renewable power and energy-efficiency projects. They have again rejected limits on their greenhouse gas emissions. It was confirmed that there are no differences between their negotiating positions for the forthcoming climate treaty talks in Copenhagen. "This makes the Group of 77 much stronger," said Yang Fuqian of the WWF. "They see the two big countries standing with them and their voice will be stronger." Josh Carmody at the Asian Development Bank sees the Indian-Chinese accord as a possible building block in a global deal. "If they can form a common position, that's one agreement toward a global agreement," he commented. Others see it as the basis for an alternative to the existing climate treaty process. "They’re trying to gain leverage going into Copenhagen and show the world they have other options if the global talks break down," said Olav Roenningen from Markedskraft, the Norwegian carbon-markets advisory firm.

African nations have met in Ethiopia to discuss their position at the Copenhagen talks. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian prime minister, will lead the delegation in Copenhagen and he has threatened to walk out if African needs are not met. Africa should consider not signing in Copenhagen if their needs are not met, agreed Hawa Sow from WWF. The continent "is facing a real challenge in dealing with climate change," said Gabriel Odima, president of the Africa Center for Peace and Democracy in the United States, "but threatening to walk away from the negotiations is not a wise idea."

The Arctic might become a source of carbon dioxide as climate alters, in contrast to its historic role as a sink, an international team of scientists reports. "In the short term, warming temperatures could expose more arctic carbon to decomposition," commented study leader David McGuire, from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks in the United States. "And with permafrost melting, there will be more available carbon to decompose." Moreover, thawing permafrost could release more methane into the atmosphere.

There is a need for further research as the response of the Arctic to climate change is not well understood. The authors note that global warming may produce longer growing seasons, boosting plant photosynthesis which removes carbon dioxide from the air, but this effect might be overwhelmed if dry conditions limit growth. "If the response of the arctic carbon cycle to climate change results in substantial net releases of greenhouse gases, this could compromise mitigation efforts that we have in mind for controlling the carbon cycle," McGuire concludes, arguing the regional studies are needed to resolve the contribution of the Arctic.