Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Current energy policies are not sustainable and a vast transformation of energy use is needed to avert the worst consequences of climate change, according to the latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA). "Continuing on today’s energy path, without any change in government policy, would mean rapidly increasing dependence on fossil fuels, with alarming consequences for climate change and energy security," the report concludes. Without a new global agreement on climate change, carbon emissions could rise by 40 per cent by the year 2030 with China responsible for more than half that growth.

There are, however, grounds for optimism. "There are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security – and these are within reach," said Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director. As a result of the global financial crisis, projected global demand is lower than in last year's report. Reduced economic activity is expected to result in a fall of global carbon emissions by three per cent this year and governments have introduced new energy-savings programmes. Assessing what is required to keep atmospheric carbon-equivalent concentrations to 450 parts per million by volume, the report concludes that, compared to the reference scenario, a cumulative incremental investment of US$10.5 trillion is needed in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency by the year 2030. This cost, though, is largely offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits. "The challenge for climate negotiators is to agree on instruments that will give the right incentives to ensure that the necessary investments are made and on mechanisms to finance those investments in non-OECD countries," Tanaka observed.

President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives has called on vulnerable countries to form a carbon neutral bloc. "If vulnerable, developing countries make a commitment to carbon neutrality, those opposed to change have nowhere left to hide," he said. "If those with the least start doing the most, what excuse can the rich have for continuing inaction?" Nasheed was addressing the V11 group at the Climate Vulnerable Forum. The Forum was hosted by the Maldives and attended by Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam, Kiribati, Barbados, Bhutan, Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania.

In the event, the conference participants stopped somewhat short of a commitment to carbon neutrality, declaring a determination to "show moral leadership on climate change through actions as well as words, by acting now to commence greening our economies as our contribution towards achieving carbon neutrality." The V11 group called on the developed countries to provide "public money amounting to at least 1.5 per cent of their gross domestic product, in addition to innovative sources of finance, annually by 2015 to assist developing countries make their transition to a climate resilient low-carbon economy." This grant-based finance must be predictable, sustainable, transparent, new and additional, on top of existing commitments to deliver 0.7 per cent of gross national income as overseas development assistance.

Areas of ocean exposed by melting ice are soaking up more carbon dioxide from the air, as much as 3.5 million tonnes of carbon a year, according to a new study from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). "Although this is a small amount of carbon compared to global emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere it is nevertheless an important discovery. It shows nature's ability to thrive in the face of adversity," commented Lloyd Peck from BAS. Over the past 50 years, melting ice has opened up at least 24,000 km₂ of new open water, which has been colonized by carbon-absorbing phytoplankton.

Arid soils may lose nitrogen in gas form as climate warms, warn researchers from Cornell University in the United States. "This is a way that nitrogen is lost from an ecosystem that people have never accounted for before," says Jed Sparks from Cornell. "It allows us to finally understand the dynamics of nitrogen in arid systems." Small patches of soil in the Mojave Desert were covered with sealed containers to measure gases escaping from the soil under different temperature conditions "At 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, we found rapid increases in gases coming out of the soil," reports Cornell's Carmody McCalley With arid lands also affected directly by climate change, "we're on a trajectory where plant life in arid ecosystems could cease to do well," she warns.