Tiempo Climate Newswatch

"A dramatic negotiation process in its final lap" is how Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme described the run-up to the Copenhagen climate summit. "To me, there is enough reason to have a sense of optimism right now that a deal could be made in Copenhagen that is not just a political deal, but is meaningful in terms of the scientific targets," he continued. Steiner cited the recent American proposal to cut domestic emissions by four per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2020 and China's commitment to substantial improvements in carbon intensity over that time period as good grounds for optimism.

Commonwealth leaders, meeting in Trinidad, want to see "an ambitious mitigation outcome at Copenhagen to reduce the risks of dangerous climate change without compromising the legitimate development aspirations of developing countries." They called on the developed world to address the needs of developing countries by providing new financing, support for adaptation, technology transfer, capacity building and incentives for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. "Developed countries should pay attention to the concerns and interests of developing countries," said Qin Gang, spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, after a meeting with India, Brazil, South Africa and Sudan to discuss the climate negotiations. "On the one hand, they should take concrete measures to work out a mid-term emissions reduction plan. On the other hand, they should provide financial support, technology transfer and aid... to developing countries, he continued.

The Australian Senate has rejected the government's proposed emissions trading scheme after the opposition leader, who had brokered a deal supporting the plan, was replaced. The government will re-introduce the bill, giving the opposition Liberal party a chance to "work through and deal with this legislation in the national interest," according to Julia Gillard, acting prime minister. The defeat was welcomed by the Greens party, who called the scheme "a dirty deal, an exercise in double think, and a deceit on the Australian people."

India could commit to reducing its carbon intensity by 24 per cent from 2005 levels by the year 2020, according to government sources. "The Americans are now on board after President Obama's offer. China has expressed its willingness to stick its neck out. Now, we are also willing to do our bit, China-style," said a government official in an anonymous interview with the Washington Post. "The two developments signaled to us that the global politics has moved beyond everybody sitting behind their tables and doing nothing. So, a lot of number-crunching is going on now."

Leading climate scientist James Hansen, head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in the United States, believes that the world would be better off if the Copenhagen climate negotiations collapse. "I would rather it not happen if people accept that as being the right track because it's a disaster track," he said in an interview with the Guardian. "The whole approach is so fundamentally wrong that it is better to reassess the situation."

At the root of Hansen's opposition is emissions trading. "This is analogous to the indulgences that the Catholic church sold in the middle ages," he argues. "The bishops collected lots of money and the sinners got redemption. Both parties liked that arrangement despite its absurdity. That is exactly what's happening. We've got the developed countries who want to continue more or less business as usual and then these developing countries who want money and that is what they can get through offsets [sold through the carbon markets]."