Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Natural catastrophes took many fewer lives and caused much less damage on average in 2009 than in the previous decade, according to German reinsurance company Munich Re. The death toll in 2009 was around 10,000, well below the annual average of 75,000 for the past 10 years. Total economic losses, including losses not covered by insurance, dropped to 35 billion euros from 139 billion euros in 2008.

Torsten Jeworrek, a member of the Munich Re board, expressed disappointment at the outcome of the Copenhagen climate summit, noting an almost three-fold rise in weather-related natural catastrophes since 1950. "Despite the lack of severe hurricanes and other mega catastrophes, there were a large number of moderately severe natural catastrophes," commented Peter Höppe from Munich Re. "The trend towards an increase in weather-related catastrophes continues," he warned. 2009 saw 850 catastrophic weather events, above the ten-year average. "We need as soon as possible an agreement that significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions because the climate reacts slowly and what we fail to do now will have a bearing for decades to come," he said. According to Munich Re, the failure of the Copenhagen summit means that insurance costs will rise in the future.

The price of carbon has remained low in the aftermath of the Copenhagen climate summit. At around 12 euros (US$17) a tonne on the European Climate Exchange, the price of carbon may be too low for emissions trading to be effective. "You need carbon prices at 25 to 50 dollars a tonne to start sending the right market signals," comments Daphne Wysham of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington DC in the United States. The price dropped to eight euros a tonne early in 2009.

The downward trend in the price of carbon since its peak in mid-2008 has been the result of the global economic crisis and its impact on demand as well as delays in climate legislation in the United States. The design of existing emissions trading schemes has also been held responsible. Offsets, allowing emitters in rich countries to invest in clean technology or sequestration in developing countries in exchange for carbon credits, act as "a drag on price because they're the cheapest option out there" for meeting emissions targets, according to Wysham. "Overly generous initial allowances" that "expedited the political process needed to launch cap and trade" are also playing a part in holding price down, says Michael Clingan of Ascendant Consulting. The depressed price of carbon has led to renewed calls for direct taxation of carbon.

On the fifth anniversary of the Indian Ocean tsunami, experts have warned that the new early warning system must be backed by greater community involvement if it is to be effective. "The weakest link remains at the interface between the early warning system and the public, and in ensuring there's enough preparedness at the local level to react appropriately," said Bhupinder Tomar of the International Federation for the Red Cross (IFRC) in Geneva, Switzerland.

"You need to start with the people and move outwards," commented Ilan Kelman of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, Norway. Kelman recommends that the evacuation process be integrated with everyday activities. For example, "in a heavily vegetated area, people need paths to get from the coast to inland... and there's no reason why those paths should be different from an evacuation route," he observed, adding that "having a development project to create more paths and maintain them is actually useful for the communities every day, as well as every decade when there's a tsunami warning." Experts are also saying that warning messages need to be written by local communities. "We don't want to see panic, we don't want to see people taking the wrong action. So getting the words right, getting the message right and getting it delivered are key components," advised Al Panico of IFRC.