Tiempo Climate Newswatch

India is amongst the nations most vulnerable to climate change, according to a comprehensive report from the Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA). Following the launch of the report, environment minister Jairam Ramesh stressed the need to develop Indian research rather than relying on global scientific data and analysis. "This dependence on borrowed data, borrowed models, borrowed research has cost us politically," he said, noting that blindly accepting Western science's prognosis could have social and economic costs for the nation.

According to the INCCA report, India could warm by around two degrees Celsius within 20 years, with some coastal regions experiencing a greater rise in temperature. While rainfall levels may increase, particularly in the Himalayas and the northeast, there could be fewer days of rain, increasing the likelihood of both flooding and drought. The report examines potential impacts on human health, forestry, water supply and agriculture. It projects that irrigated rice is likely to gain in yields marginally as temperatures rise compared to rainfed crops as irrigated rice could benefit from the carbon dioxide fertilization effect. Maize and sorghum may have reduced yields. Coconut productivity is forecast to rise on the western coast and be reduced in the eastern coastal region. A reduction in apple production has occurred in the Himalayan region and this is likely to continue in the future. Thermal stress in livestock could lead to a reduction in milk productivity.

Development agencies can act now to help Himalayan communities prepare for the impact of glacier melt on their lives, according to a new study by American researchers. "The extremely high altitudes and sheer mass of High Asian glaciers mean they couldn't possibly melt in the next few decades," said Elizabeth Malone of the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "But climate change is still happening and we do need to prepare for it. That's especially true in this part of the world, where poverty and other concerns make its residents very vulnerable to any change," she continued.

The report identifies the challenge of lack of information, vulnerabilities related to current societal and ecosystem conditions and the need for mitigation, focusing on black carbon. Addressing these issues would be a "no regrets" approach as they concern critical needs whatever the glacial response to climate change. Programmes that integrate health, education, the environment and social organizations are needed, the report concludes. As glacier melt is part of complex, region-wide hydrological changes, effective programmes will have to be cross-sectoral and will achieve co-benefits across sectors. Extending programme timelines beyond three to five years and explicitly coordinating projects, especially across sectoral and geographic boundaries, should also be considered given the nature of climate change. "Agencies like USAID already have assets and expertise that have advanced the developing world for years," Malone commented. "This report offers a menu of options on how those assets can also be used to address the many issues that will arise from climate change."

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that food prices may rise by 10 to 20 per cent next year as a result of poor harvests and an expected rundown of global reserves. The forecasts for 2011 have had to be revised due to extreme volatility in world markets. "Rarely have markets exhibited this level of uncertainty and sudden turns in such a brief period of time," the FAO report notes. World cereal production is now forecast to contract by two per cent, rather than to expand by just over one per cent as predicted in June.

International food import bills could pass the one trillion dollar mark this year. The report warns that "prices could rise even more if production next year does not increase significantly – especially in maize, soybean and wheat. Even the price of rice, the supply of which is more adequate than other cereals, may be affected if prices of other major food crops continue climbing." Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC fears that 2011 will not be a good harvest. "The condition of winter wheat crops is not good. Neither the United States nor Russia are expecting good harvests," he said.