Tiempo Climate Newswatch

In the absence of emissions control, Earth's climate could take 100,000 years or longer to recover from global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, according to a position statement from the Geological Society of London. "In the light of the evidence presented, it is reasonable to conclude that emitting further large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over time is likely to be unwise, uncomfortable though that fact may be," the statement ends.

Scientists in Canada have modelled the effects of stopping greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2010 and in 2100 on the climate of the current millennium. While many of the consequences of anthropogenic emissions are reversible, "there are some parts of the climate that have a lot of inertia and it will take many centuries before they start to reverse," commented researcher Shawn Marshall of the University of Calgary. Long-term warming of the Antarctic as the water masses and currents of the ocean slowly respond is predicted, as is desertification in parts of North Africa. In some regions, large differences in the projections occur between the two scenarios. "You sometimes hear that defeatist argument that it's too late and there are a lot of changes that are going to happen, so just worry about adaptation," Marshall said. "But I think you do see a big divergence in potential futures depending on if there are some reductions in emissions."

Better access to relevant climate data is essential if financial institutions are to manage risks and advise clients effectively, concludes a report backed by the United Nations. "To date the key role that financial institutions and other private sector decision-makers can play in increasing the climate resilience of economies and societies has been neglected at best," said Paul Clements-Hunt, head of the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI).

"Financial institutions are experts in identifying, quantifying and pricing risks. This expertise can be of great value to society at large when faced with the sheer uncertainty linked with changing climate patterns and the significant risks of resulting impacts", observed Mark Fulton from Deutsche Bank, co-chair of UNEP FI's Climate Change Working Group. "This study confirms that what private sector institutions need in order to become real 'adaptation catalysts' is objective and reliable information." Continued research towards more reliable climate modelling and forecasting is needed, according to the study, as well as enhanced translation of scientific knowledge and existing information into user-friendly information. Intensive collaboration between users and suppliers, public and private actors, scientists and decision makers will be necessary.

Climate change may have intensified the monsoon rains responsible for record floods in the state of Queensland, Australia, report Australian scientists. "I think people will end up concluding that at least some of the intensity of the monsoon in Queensland can be attributed to climate change," said Matthew England of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. "The waters off Australia are the warmest ever measured and those waters provide moisture to the atmosphere for the Queensland and northern Australia monsoon."

Global warming may also be strengthening the impact of El Niño and La Niña conditions. "We've always had El Niños and we've had natural variability but the background which is now operating is different," commented David Jones of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. With more moisture in the atmosphere of a warmer world and stronger weather patterns, "El Niño droughts would be expected to be exacerbated and also La Niña floods because rainfall would be exacerbated," he said, cautioning it would be some years before the effect of climate change on these phenomena might become clear. The current La Niña is the strongest for some decades. It began abruptly in mid-2010 and has been responsible for drought across parts of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay as well as heavy rains in Australia and a stronger South Asian monsoon.