Tiempo Climate Newswatch

"The possibility of a new financial bubble that will be created through [the] carbon market is very big," warns Pablo Solón, Bolivia's chief climate negotiator. "There are many problems related to the carbon market that are not really under control at all," he said, noting that a tonne of carbon can be bought for around US$15 and sold for US$100. "From our point of view, to launch and to create all this business to solve [the climate] problem through this new market mechanism is not a good solution," he added.

After rapid growth during the second half of the past decade, the World Bank reports that emissions trading fell by about US$2 billion in 2010. "The global carbon market stagnated even as the global economy stabilized and began a tentative recovery in 2010," according to the authors of the World Bank report. "The year may be remembered most for the political opportunities that arose, yet were ultimately failed to materialize," they continue. Clean Development Project proposals in May 2011 were, however, at their highest for three years, according to the Risoe Centre of the United Nations Environment Programme. It is thought that project developers may be rushing to get projects fully registered before the end of the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period in 2012.

Analysis of the link between cholera outbreaks and temperature and rainfall fluctuations in Tanzania suggests that global warming could result in a substantial increase in incidence, according to researchers at the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) in Seoul. "Based on the results of this analysis we would expect a very high cholera caseload in Asia and Africa if the temperatures hit the higher end of [the range of global temperature predictions]," said Mohammad Ali from IVI.

The immediate application of the work lies in short-term forecasting. "We are getting very close to developing a reliable forecasting system that would monitor temperatures and rainfall patterns to trigger pre-emptive measures - like mobilizing public health teams or emergency vaccination efforts - to prepare for an outbreak before it arrives," said Rita Reyburn, a researcher at IVI. The study suggests that cholera cases were likely to double within four months when the average monthly minimum temperature rose by one degree Celsius.

The fragmentation of Europe's forests is increasing vulnerability to climate change, according to a United Nations report to be released mid-month. Though the overall forested area in Europe is increasing, the report concludes, fires, felling and agriculture are creating isolated patches of forest that are less able to stabilize soils and supply sufficient water to the cities, companies and communities that rely on these ecosystems.

Plans are being developed for the creation of green corridors that will reconnect forested areas. It is hoped that targets for restoring links between forest patches will be set at the forthcoming Forest Europe Ministerial Conference as part of European Forests 2020. The meeting will also see negotiations start on a legally-binding forest agreement for Europe.