Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The impact of the drought in the Horn of Africa is being worsened by volatile food prices, a new report from the World Bank concludes. "While the emergency in the Horn of Africa was triggered by prolonged droughts, especially in areas struggling with conflict and internal displacement such as Somalia, food prices that are near the record high levels seen in 2008 also contributed to the situation," the World Bank said in a statement. Production of biofuels, particularly corn ethanol in the United States, is also a factor.

Food prices last month were, in general, around a third higher than a year ago, while maize prices have risen 84 per cent on average. Sorghum prices have increased fourfold in parts of Somalia as a result of poor local harvests and reduced global reserves, according to the World Bank report. The United Nations Children's Fund estimates that 12.5 million people in the Horn of Africa need urgent humanitarian support, over 2.3 million children are estimated to be malnourished and over half a million severely malnourished children are at imminent risk of death over the region.

Namibia has no option but to adapt to the changing climate, according to speakers at the Namibia Climate Change Adaptation Youth Conference, held in Windhoek in July. "The environmental consequences of climate change, both those already observed and those that are anticipated, such as [rising] sea levels, changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and drought, more intense hurricanes and storms, heat waves and degraded air quality, will both affect human health directly and indirectly," said Ephraim Nekongo, the chairperson of the Oshana Regional Youth Forum. Minister of Environment and Tourism, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah encouraged young people to take action, focusing not only on the challenges but also the opportunities presented by climate change.

With an economy directly reliant on the environment for up to 30 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), the impact of climate change on natural resources could reduce Namibia's GDP by up to six per cent over the next 20 years. African Adaptation Project Namibia was launched in 2010. The project aims to build effective leadership and institutional frameworks for better coordination and integration of climate change programmes into development policy as well as provide support to local community climate change initiatives and priority sectors such as sanitation and health. It is also assisting the government to identify financing options.

Arctic sea ice extent may temporarily increase as global warming develops, even though the long-term projection is that the ice will eventually disappear, a new modelling study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States concludes. "One of the results that surprised us all was the number of computer simulations that indicated a temporary halt to the loss of the ice," said lead author Jennifer Kay. "The computer simulations suggest that we could see a 10-year period of stable ice or even a slight increase in the extent of the ice."

"Even though the observed ice loss has accelerated over the last decade, the fate of sea ice over the next decade depends not only on human activity but also on climate variability that cannot be predicted," Kay reported, Variations in local winds, for example, could offset ice melt caused by greenhouse warming. The model results suggest that, during the late 20th century, climate variability reinforced the long-term warming trend resulting in rapid ice loss. As temperatures rise, the modelling indicated that short-term variability in sea-ice trends will increase in scale. "Over periods up to a decade, both positive and negative trends become more pronounced in a warming world," said NCAR scientist Marika Holland, a co-author of the study.