Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The Tenth Conference of the Parties (COP-10) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) over-ran by a day as delegates sought to reach agreement on the format of future negotiations regarding what happens after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. A compromise was eventually reached between the United States and Europe, containing a commitment to a single meeting in May 2005. The United States had opposed European plans for a series of informal meetings. "It is a give-and-take exercise and I think on balance we are very pleased with the outcome," said Harlan Watson of the United States State Department. During the closing session, India, with support from China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, called for a guarantee that developing nations would not have to accept emission cuts. But the European Union rejected the demand and the compromise agreement stood.

Throughout the meeting, developing countries argued for stronger commitments on assistance to avert the consequences of climate change. The Africa Group emphasized the urgency of adaptation and stressed the importance of operationalizing the Special Climate Change Fund. They want funding not only for research but also for the implementation of adaptation measures. Alberto Cárdenas Jiménez, Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, Mexico, argued that the lack of action on adaptation limits the economic ability of developing countries to achieve sustainable development. He said that the issue has been addressed in a fragmented manner under the climate treaty and supported an Argentinian proposal for an adaptation work programme. COP-10 was held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, December 6-18th 2004.

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A Pew Center initiative, aimed at bringing the United States into a post-Kyoto agreement with major emitters from the developing world, held its latest round of discussions alongside COP-10 in Buenos Aires. "The rejection by the United States really set off the search for better ways of doing things," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, former Executive Secretary of the climate treaty secretariat, "What seems to be taking shape is a series of feasible options that respond to different economic and political circumstances." The idea is a 'variable geometry' for emissions control post-2012 that would permit approaches to vary from one country to another.

"Kyoto is a start, but ahead lies a far greater challenge: engaging all the world’s major emitters in a long-term approach that fairly and effectively mobilizes the technology and resources needed to protect the global climate," according to Pew Center President Eileen Claussen. The approaches under consideration include methods that would link emissions targets to economic growth or focus targets on specific activities and economic sectors. National targets may represent purely financial commitments, for example, to cover the costs of emissions controls elsewhere. Gao Feng, of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, favours a "bottom-up approach" with each country determining for itself "what might be technically, economically, socially and politically acceptable." Bill Hare, from Greenpeace, was sceptical, saying that "bottom-up is a euphemism for not doing much at all beyond what would normally happen."

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A British government report on climate science in Africa concludes that, despite the vulnerability of the continent to climate variability, "there is a sense that climate is only marginally entering into development planning, and that societal resilience is not improving." The Africa Climate Report suggests a set of "options for collective action," including strengthening research capacity, the creation of a regional climate centre, a training fund for African climatologists and a research programme on climate and sustainable development.

Declan Conway of the University of East Anglia, one of the report's authors, believes that solutions to the threat posed by climate change cannot be imposed by the international community. "The answers will come from Africa," he says. Assessment of vulnerability is, he argues, a priority as a basis for "trying to improve the capacity to prepare and cope." The United Kingdom's priorities for its G8 presidency during 2005 are climate change and Africa.

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It is with a great sense of loss that we report the death of Gerald Leach. Gerry died on Friday December 10th 2004 after a long illness.
He was a towering man, with an intellect to match, fully committed to his decades of work as an energy and development analyst.
Gerry was a much-valued contributor to Tiempo, appreciated for his comments as our "bemused observer," and recently became co-editor of the quarterly bulletin. We will sorely miss his insight, knowledge and wisdom.
Our thoughts are with his dearly loved family at this time. He was a man who celebrated and lived life to the full.

Mick Kelly and Sarah Granich

The Tenth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is taking place December 6th to 17th in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Opening the meeting, Argentina's environment minister Ginés González Garcia stressed the importance of additional assistance for poor countries to avoid climate impacts. The position of the least developed countries was expressed by a Tanzanian delegate: "for our countries, climate change is more catastrophic than terrorism." Environmental groups called for "urgent action from governments" to halt the change in climate that, they said, hit hardest at the poor. Greenpeace built a model of Noah's Ark in the centre of the city to pressure governments to respond to the climate threat.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Joke Waller-Hunter felt "pretty upbeat" as the conference began. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol "will make a huge difference to the mood in which this meeting takes place," she said. Harlan Watson of the United States State Department, argued that, despite not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, "we match or exceed what any other country is doing to address the issue." The United States is focusing on plans to improve energy efficiency, with the goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18 per cent by 2012. Analysts note that this goal represents a 13 per cent rise in national carbon emissions.

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British scientists claim that "it is very likely that human influence has at least doubled the risk" of extreme weather events, such as the European heatwave of 2003. Peter Stott, of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and Dáithí Stone and Myles Allen of the University of Oxford modelled the likelihood of the 2003 heat wave taking place with and without any human influence. According to Stott, "we found that although the high temperature experienced in 2003 was not impossible in a climate unaltered by man, it is very likely that greenhouse gases have at least doubled the risk and our best estimate is that such a heatwave is now four times more likely as a result of human influence on climate."

The study may provide the basis for lawsuits as Pacific islanders blame the United States for global warming. "This is the kind of evidence that will help those seeking compensation," said Peter Roderick of Climate Justice. "One study is not going to create an entirely new area of jurisprudence," according to Steve Sawyer of Greenpeace, "but this is an important step." Others were less convinced. "Other legal questions about whether emitters should have foreseen damage, and their fault or negligence, will present formidable hurdles to claimants," commented study author Myles Allen and lawyer Richard Lord.

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The Brazilian government has released its inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, required under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. A matter of some controversy in Brazil, the report shows that the nation generated 1.03 billion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 1994, about three per cent of global emissions. This makes Brazil one the world's largest polluters.

Burning of the Amazon and other forests accounts for three-quarters of the total. "It is now clear that Brazil's quickest way to reduce its contribution to global warming is fundamentally to change the process of occupation and land use in the Amazon," responded Greenpeace. Marina Silva, Brazil's Environment Minister, said that the government would not "escape from its responsibilities" to protect the environment. "The effort by the government to fight deforestation has to be significant to hit illegal activities."

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The Philippines has been hit by a series of storms, causing flash floods, landslides and mudslips and leaving at least 1,000 people dead or missing. The sequence began during the period November 17-20th when tropical storm Muifa lingered on the east coast before passing over the country, closely followed by tropical depression Merbok. Both storms made landfall on the main island of Luzon. Suffering multiple strikes, the towns of Baler and Dingalan in Quezon Province were among the worst hit. Environment Secretary Mike Defensor claimed that, in the case of flooding in Nueva Ecija, north of Manila, "there is no doubt that illegal logging... is the cause of the flash floods. Strengthening to typhoon force, Muifa also made landfall in Vietnam, killing at least 40 people.

Following heavy rains associated with a tropical depression earlier in the week, Typhoon Nanmadol hit the north of the country on Thursday December 2nd. Gusts reached 220 km/h (138 mph). The town of Real in Quezon province was particularly hard hit, with 400 troops despatched there with relief supplies. As well as homes and crops, roads, bridges, powerlines and other infrastructure have been destroyed, seriously hampering rescue efforts. "Together as a nation, we will rise from the devastation," said President Gloria Arroyo. "We need one great heave to deliver the relief supplies, find the missing, rescue the isolated, feed the hungry and shelter the homeless."

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Despite strong evidence that climate change will prove disastrous for the polar region, Arctic Council delegates meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, have missed "a chance to show leadership on climate change," according to the WorldWide Fund for Nature. The conference declaration encourages "effective measures" to cope with climate change but it makes no specific recommendations. Opposition from the United States made it impossible to reach a stronger consensus. Delegates broke into laughter when Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja announced that "it was the best possible declaration that could be adopted today."

Arctic peoples are joining up with small islanders to campaign against global warming. "We are two of the world's most vulnerable areas," commented Sheila Watt-Cloutier of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. "Linking up makes a lot of sense. We can start working together, mobilizing ourselves at various UN forums or global negotiations sessions to turn up as a team," she said. The Inuit plan to petition the Organization of American States, to brand global warming a human rights abuse by the United States.

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After sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific islands have made the least progress towards the UN's Millennium Development Goals, according to a the latest assessment by the UN Statistics Division. Of the 20 key targets, six areas show no change or else show negative progress. There has been a decline in measles immunization, an increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, a decline in forest cover, and limited access to drinking water and sanitation.

The Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the UN Development Programme have released the Pacific Islands Regional Millennium Development Goals Report, which concludes that "in some sectors, in particular, health, there is a real risk that some of the region's gains could be reversed." In January 2005, Mauritius will be the venue for the UN International Meeting to Review the Implementation of the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States.

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The first Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project has been formally registered, marking the latest phase in the implementation of this market mechanism aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The project will cut landfill emissions of methane in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Methane from rotting rubbish will be burned to generate electricity, rather than escaping to the atmosphere. Project partners are S A Paulista, EcoSecurities and the World Bank Netherlands Clean Development Facility.

Under the CDM, companies in industrialized nations or the nations themselves can undertake a clean-development project in a developing country, with the dual aims of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting sustainable development goals. The company or nation can claim 'credit' for the emissions saving and sell them on or else set them against their own emissions target. The lower cost of reducing emissions in the developing world compared to the home country makes the investment attractive.

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The beleaguered people of the Darfur region of the Sudan face drought and the loss of much of the year’s harvest. Andrew Natsios, head of the US Agency for International Development, warns that farmers who have not fled the two-year conflict "have enough production from this crop to last perhaps until March, but certainly not until the end of December 2005" when the next harvest is due. The International Committee of the Red Cross estimates that 85 per cent of the crop will be lost.

United Nations targets for food distribution will not be met this month because of the security situation. A government ban on trade across the border with Chad means that farmers cannot sell their livestock, a traditional coping strategy. The market closure is a "very dangerous thing," according to Natsios. The government-backed militia have, it is reported, been stealing livestock from the local farmers and this has aggravated the conflict with the rebel groups.

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Some coral reefs are recovering from the "bleaching" of the 1998 El Niño, despite warmer oceans and pollution, concludes the 2004 Status of the Coral Reefs of the World. "Recovery should continue provided there are no major climate shifts in the next few decades," according to the World Conservation Union (IUCN) assessment.

Natural threats, such as the crown of thorns starfish, has eased in recent years, but human pressure continues to stress the world's coral reefs. Reefs in South and Southeast Asia are most at risk. "As long as poverty, population growth and lack of alternative livelihoods keep people dependent on already depleted reef resources, the coral reefs of South Asia will continue to degrade," said Jerker Tamelander of IUCN.

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The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will come into force on February 16th 2005. The Russian Federation handed ratification papers to the United Nations last week. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan welcomed the development as a "historic step forward," ending a "long period of uncertainty." The Kyoto Protocol was drafted in 1997.

With the Protocol’s entry into force: 1) industrialized nations must meet quantitative targets for limiting their greenhouse gas emissions, reducing their combined emissions of six major gases to 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012; 2) the framework for an international carbon trading market will come into being; 3) the Clean Development Mechanism will move to full operation, encouraging investments in developing-country projects that limit emissions and are consistent with sustainable development goals; and 4) the Adaptation Fund will start preparations to assist developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change.

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The leaders of the Arctic peoples have slammed the United States for blocking international efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. "The short-term economic policy of one country should not be able to trump the entire survival of one people," said Sheila Watt-Cloutier of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. She was speaking at an international conference that launched the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

The foreign ministers of the Arctic Council countries, including the United States, meet on November 24th to discuss the implications of the Arctic Assessment. Indigenous leaders have called for a "robust" and "strong" declaration from this gathering. "To be honest I don't expect a good declaration," warned Geir Tommy Pedersen of the Saami Council. "The United States is the big bad wolf when it comes to climate policy. It is blocking efforts to flesh out political recommendations."

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Tropical birds sing in response to cues in the environment. Climate change threatens to disrupt this behaviour and hence the breeding cycle, according to recent research. Scientists from Virginia Tech and the University of Washington, Seattle, compared the behaviour of the rufous-collared sparrow at two sites on either side of the Andes mountain range, only 25km apart but experiencing very different climatic conditions. The results showed differences in the timing of breeding and related variability in the song-control systems in the two populations.

Outside of the tropics, day-length triggers singing and the start of the breeding season, with testosterone the physiological cue. "We think it's probably still testosterone that causes tropical birds to sing," according to Ignacio Moore of Virginia Tech, but that, with day-length relatively constant, "the environmental cue is different." Climate change could be the reason for observed changes in breeding and migration in birds, he continued, "if the brain is truly sensitive to environmental cues, the changes due to global warming could have "effects we haven't thought of yet."

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China has released its first official estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions. With total national emissions of 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the early 1990s, and despite reported efficiency gains later in the decade, China is the second biggest greenhouse polluter behind the United States. Taking emissions per head of population, though, China ranks much lower. "It's still relatively low per capita, but the volume is increasing rapidly," said Khalid Malik, United Nations resident coordinator in Beijing. China intends to quadruple its economic output by 2020, with inevitable rises in energy consumption. There are fears that China's national emissions may exceed those of the United States by that year.

The Chinese government is under increasing pressure to limit this growth in emissions. The government is "not ambitious enough. It can do better," says Lo Sze Ping of Greenpeace China. "China does not want its emissions volume to be higher than the United States," responds Gao Guangsheng of the National Development and Reform Commission, "but you have to look at our population. The economy must develop. China has 1.3 billion people and we have to live." The new report is a requirement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

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Large areas of China are undergoing the most serious drought in half a century, according to recent reports. Worst affected are the southern and eastern provinces. In Jiangxi Province, water supplies for over half a million people are threatened. In Guangdong Province, two million people are affected. Water levels in the major tributaries of the Pearl River are at their lowest for 50 years.

The Guangdong Provincial Committee has urged local government departments and officials to ensure water supplies for people and animals. According to Ou Guangyuan of the Provincial Committee, "anti-drought efforts have become an important and long-term task." Guangdong Province has lost 1.4 billion yuan (US$170 million) from agriculture this year. More than half a million hectares of farmland have been affected and 41,000 hectares have had no harvest as a result of the drought.

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The leaders of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic have called for action to slow climate change and for assistance in coping with climate impacts. They were responding to the recent Arctic Climate Impact Assessment study. "We realize that we will be forced to make some adaptations, as we are already seeing the effects of climate change in our communities. We need to be given the resources to deal with these challenges," said Geir Tommy Pedersen of the Saami Council.

An information campaign is underway. "We need to tell our own people about what is in this report," said Rodion Sulyandziga of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North. "They are already facing many challenges, but we must prepare them for this challenge also. More than this, we need to tell the rest of the world about the necessity of taking action on climate change, and taking it now." The report's projections suggest the Arctic could become near ice-free in summer by the year 2100, creating substantial problems for the people who hunt in the area. The study suggests that climate change may challenge the survival of some cultures.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill confirming approval of the Kyoto Protocol on Thursday November 4th. The Protocol will come into force 90 days after Russia notifies the United Nations that it has ratified the agreement.

Yuri Safonov, environmental economist at Russia's Higher School of Economics, argues that Russia should "take advantage of its position as the main quota supplier" and set prices for carbon emission rights. Russia could sell up to two billion tonnes of carbon emissions rights by 2008, with the price increasing to "at least 20 dollars a tonne," he estimates. The Russian surplus, against a 1990 baseline, results from the closure of inefficient factories and a range of economic difficulties over the past decade. Europe is about to launch the world's largest carbon trading scheme.

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Representatives of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) met in Tanzania during the week of October 25th to discuss their joint approach to the Tenth Conference of the Parties (COP-10) to the climate treaty. "We have to come up with a common position on issues like the Kyoto Protocol, a subject that is of late at the centre of international controversy," said conference chair Richard Muyungi. The meeting also considered initiatives such as the National Adaptation Programmes of Action.

The group prepared an agreement intended to galvanize the industrialized nations into taking responsibility for their dominant contribution to the climate problem and assisting the poorer nations in converting their industries to greenhouse-friendly practices. "The problem is the international community has the technology, but is not ready to assist the South," said Muyungi in an interview with SciDev.Net. "If they decide to help us with solar technology, people would not cut trees for cooking... It is a question of willingness. Without their assistance, we say we will continue to emit as we need to develop." The resolution will be presented to COP-10 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December 2004.

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A report on Arctic climate change, released this week, concludes that human influence is now "the dominant factor" in regional trends. "The big melt has begun," said WWF climate director Jennifer Morgan. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk by 15 to 20 per cent over the past three decades and the report's projections suggest the Arctic could become near ice-free in summer by the year 2100. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment study was commissioned by the Arctic Council and represents the work of close to 300 scientists as well as elders of the region's Native American communities.

Impacts are already occurring as the ice melts, permafrost thaws, buildings are losing their foundations and infrastructure is lost. Irreplaceable habitats for species such as the polar bear and seal are disappearing. There may, though, be some positive effects as oil and gas extraction becomes easier and shipping lanes open. The report will provide a basis for new policy recommendations by Arctic governments at a meeting in Iceland later this month. It has already led to a rift between the United States and European governments.

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Jim Hansen, a leading climate researcher in the United States, has accused the Bush administration of stifling scientific evidence on global warming. "In my more than three decades in government, I have never seen anything approaching the degree to which information flow from scientists to the public has been screened and controlled as it is now," he said. Hansen is director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

Speaking at the University of Iowa, he accused the administration of only wanting to hear results that "fit their predetermined, inflexible position." Evidence that might raise concern is often dismissed as not being of interest to the public. Reports that outline the potential dangers of climate change are edited to make the problem seem less serious. "This, I believe, is a recipe for environmental disaster," he concluded.

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Britain is requesting a higher greenhouse gas emissions allowance from the European Union (EU) in the run-up to the launch of an EU carbon trading scheme on January 1st 2005. The justification is a 7.6 per cent increase in carbon output in sectors involved in the scheme since a projection was made in April that set the national baseline. Margaret Beckett, environment secretary, said the existing quota "would have had a devastating effect on industry." Britain is asking for an increase in its national allowance of close to three per cent (19.8 million tonnes of carbon).

Under the European Union's carbon trading scheme, governments will set individual targets for plants - power stations, pulp mills, cement factories, and so on - that are large emitters. Pollution permits will be assigned that can be bought and sold on the open market. It is anticipated that 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon a year will be traded to ensure these targets are met. Plants that exceed their target will be fined 40 euro a tonne of excess carbon during the initial three-year period, increasing to 100 euro a tonne thereafter.

The UK government's climb-down resulted in considerable anger and disappointment. Tony Blair and the Department of Trade and Industry "have failed to put the environment ahead of industry," accused Friends of the Earth. "This is further evidence that Tony Blair will never bite the bullet when it comes to the environment," concluded Liberal Democrat politician Norman Baker.

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Representatives of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) met in Tanzania during the week of October 25th to discuss their joint approach to the Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty in December. "We have to come up with a common position on issues like the Kyoto Protocol, a subject that is of late at the centre of international controversy," said conference chair Richard Muyungi.

The meeting will also consider initiatives such as the National Adaptation Programmes of Action, a major concern of the group. Opening the meeting, Tanzanian Minister of State for the Environment Arcado Ntagazwa urged LDCs to unite in opposition to those activities of the developed nations that were giving rise to climate change.

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The Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, has ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Ratification took place on Friday October 22nd. According to Interfax, it was supported by 334 parliamentarians, 73 were against, and two abstained. The minimum number of votes to needed pass is 226.

The Protocol now has to pass through the upper parliament and be signed by President Vladimir Putin, though this is considered a formality. The threshold for implementation will then have been exceeded and the Protocol should come into force some time early in 2005. The United States position remains the same. "We do not believe that the Kyoto Protocol is something that is realistic for the United States and we have no intention of signing or ratifying it," said State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

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"Decades of progress and development could be wiped out overnight. Climate change is undermining advances in development and preventing countries raising themselves out of poverty," warns the report, Up in Smoke, compiled by a coalition of development and environment organizations. The 17-member coalition included ActionAid, Christian Aid, Oxfam, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace. The coalition argues that climate change could render the international targets laid down in the Millennium Development Goals unachievable.

"Climate change is the mother of all ecological debts owed by the north to the south," said a spokesperson from the new economics foundation (nef), who, with the International Institute for Environment and Development, organized the study. The report calls for a global risk assessment to determine the potential cost of adaptation in poor countries and urges rich countries to provide additional funds to cover climate-related disaster relief. Andrew Simms, nef Policy Director, argued for "a global framework to stop climate change that is based on equity." "Plans for human development must be climate-proof and climate-friendly," he continued.

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A little action now to limit long-term climate change would be cheaper than doing nothing at this time and having to do much more later, according to a recent study. A carbon tax of five cents a gallon of gasoline would be the best way to start. "You can think of the tax as a low-cost insurance policy that protects against climate change," said Michael Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The analysts assumed that tax policies would be enacted from 2005 and identified the optimum strategy, balancing costs and benefits. Gross global product was used as a measure of climate impacts. "The idea is to search for the tax that provides the least cost over the whole period. If the tax is too low, you do too little in the beginning, then after 30 years you have to do a lot. On the other hand, if the tax is too high, you spend too much now, and you may have to do only a little later," explained Schlesinger. The five cents tax on a gallon of gasoline corresponds to a tax of US$10 per ton of carbon. The optimal strategy has this tax increasing to US$33 a ton over a 30-year period.

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The Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, will debate ratification of the Kyoto Protocol Friday October 22nd. Ratification is near certain as the main pro-Kremlin party has a substantial majority. Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, commented that Russian ratification would "launch an exciting new phase in the global campaign to reduce the risks of climate change.”

Despite claims to the contrary by some Russian politicians, most analysts agree that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is not likely to damage the national economy. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, industry was set back and greenhouse gas emissions dropped to 70 percent of the 1990 baseline. Russia, with a Kyoto target of stabilization at 1990 levels by 2012, can sell its excess quota to high polluters. Once Russia ratifies, the Protocol will come into force in 90 days.

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David King, Chief Scientific Adviser to the British government, has cited the accelerated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over the past two years as a clear sign that the world must take urgent action on the climate problem. "This is taking us up into relatively dangerous levels of carbon dioxide for our planet", he said during the annual Greenpeace Business Lecture.

David King, though, agrees with experts who counsel caution in interpreting the recent data. "I don't think an increase of 2 ppm for two years in a row is highly significant - there are climatic perturbations that can make this occur", said David J Hofmann of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "But", he continued, "the absence of a known climatic event does make these years unusual". Peter Cox, of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom, told the BBC that the increase was not uniform across the globe - Europe's very hot summer last year and a larger than usual number of forest fires could have killed off vegetation and increased carbon releases from the soil. CSIRO researchers in Australia reported in March that they had detected the same behaviour at Southern Hemisphere sites They reckon that human activity is, in fact, a likely source of the increase as a similar trend had not affected trace gases, such as methane, linked to wildfires.

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Researchers have found that warming of the Arctic may result in positive feedback as more carbon dioxide is released from the tundra than previously expected. Low temperatures and water saturation currently trap large amounts of carbon in the polar soils. "The rise in temperature would release more of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the air than plants are capable of taking in", said Michelle Mack, an ecologist at the University of Florida at Gainsville in the United States. This conclusion was reached on the basis of a 20-year experiment at the Arctic Long-term Ecological Research site near Toolik Lake, Alaska.

Drew Shindell and Gavin Schmidt of Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center in New York in the United States have concluded that the Antarctic is set to warm over the next 50 years, despite recent cooling. The scientists' computer model shows that the combined effect of low ozone levels and increasing greenhouse gases has been a shift in the Antarctic circulation (the Southern Annular Mode), isolating cold air in the polar interior. With ozone levels set to recover due to control of ozone-depleting chemicals, "global warming is likely to dominate future trends", says Shindell.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent the Kyoto Protocol to the State Duma for approval. Ratification is near certain as the main pro-Kremlin party has a substantial majority. The Duma will debate ratification on October 22nd. Once Russia ratifies, the Protocol will come into force in 90 days.

The decision to ratify seems to have been triggered by European Union support for Russian membership of the World Trade Organization, and visa-free travel for Russian citizens within the European Union. The United States continues to reject the Protocol, despite Russia's new commitment. Australian Prime Minister John Howard said that his nation would meet its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but would not ratify the agreement.

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Small island states warned the United Nations General Assembly in September that the threat of climate change is as urgent as the fight against terrorism. "We have demonstrated remarkable solidarity in the fight against global terrorism," said Kiribati President Anote Tong. "Can we not demonstrate the same in the fight against climate change and sea level rise?" Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines, warned that climate change, "if unchecked, could lead in this century to a global human and economic calamity."

Progress in implementing the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States will be reviewed at an international meeting in Mauritius, January 10-14th 2005. Agreement has yet to be reached on issues such as climate change, trade relations, market access, renewable energy sources and finance.

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Researchers have linked recent drought in the western United States to climate warming in a study of the past record of aridity and causal mechanisms such as regional climate change. "If warming over the tropical Pacific Ocean promotes drought over the western US, this is a potential problem for the future in a world that is increasingly subjected to global warming," said Ed Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.

The study was based on proxy climate records, such as tree-ring data, used to reconstruct a long-term record of drought and on modelling studies. The recent four-year drought in the western US "pales in comparison with some of the earlier droughts we see," concludes David Meko of the Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona.

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• Reconstructed drought data

The Russian Cabinet has approved ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, removing the final obstacle in the way of implementation of this phase of the climate treaty. "Russia's green light will allow the climate train to leave the station so we can really begin addressing the biggest threat to the planet and its people," proclaimed Klaus Toepfer, UN Environment Programme chief.

While President Putin has ordered his government to move ahead with ratification of the Protocol, there remains opposition. The Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov warned of a "difficult debate" when the issue comes before the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, before the end of the year. With a majority of Putin loyalists in the Duma, though, the house will likely follow the President's lead.

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• BBC
• Terra Daily

The United States continues to reject the Kyoto Protocol, despite Russia's new commitment to ratification. US spokesperson Richard Boucher said that the "position on the Kyoto Protocol has not changed" but noted that "it was up to other nations to independently evaluate whether ratification is in their national interest." He continued that President Bush has "reaffirmed our commitment" to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard said that his nation would meet its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but would not ratify the agreement. "The difficulty by ratifying, through ratifying under the present conditions, is that countries like China and Brazil and Indonesia would not be subject to the emissions targets we'd be subject to," he said. He feared that Australia would be disadvantaged as it would be more attractive for industry to invest in these countries and "that would take investment and also jobs out of our country."

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Californian regulators have adopted the world's tightest controls on automobile emissions to cut releases of greenhouse gases. Manufacturers will be required to limit emissions through technological advances, such as improvements in air conditioners, more efficient transmissions and reduced engine size. Terry Tamminen, environmental protection secretary, said that California should do its part to reduce emissions. "Our contribution, no matter how large or small, makes a difference."

During the first stage, from 2009 through 2012, emissions should be reduced by about 25 percent for cars and light trucks and by about 18 percent for larger trucks and sport-utility vehicles. From 2016, the regulations would require emissions to be cut by up to 34 percent for cars and light trucks and by 25 percent for larger vehicles. The automobile industry trade group, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, may challenge the new regulations in court. It is not convinced the measures are worth the cost. "We see no apparent health benefit at great cost to California consumers," said spokesperson Gloria J Bergquist.

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• New Rules Project
• Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers

President Putin has ordered his government to move ahead with ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The government recently submitted the ratification documents for ministerial approval and ratification has now been approved by the Russian Cabinet. "This is a hugely important step," commented Alexei Kokorin, head of the World Wildlife Fund in Russia.

Ratification does not have total support. The Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov considers the treaty "ineffective, unfair, and disadvantageous", according to recent reports. Economic adviser Andrei Illarionov has argued that, without the involvement of the United States, there will be no market for carbon, reducing the attractiveness of the deal to Russia. The final decision will be taken by the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. With a majority of Putin loyalists in the Duma, the house will likely follow the President's lead. European Union support of Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization is said to have ensured the decision to approve.

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It is feared that Tropical Storm Jeanne has killed over 2,000 people in Haiti. It struck over the weekend of September 18/19th. Flooding and landslides were responsible for the majority of the deaths, with the town of Gonaives hardest hit. The flooding was made worse by the extensive deforestation in the region. Valleys were unable to hold back the rainwater.

It is proving difficult to get aid and assistance into the region and disease threatens. "Trucking clean water into Gonaives is a logistical nightmare," according to Abby Maxman of CARE. Francoise Gruloos of the UN Children's Fund warned that "it's a critical situation in terms of epidemics, because of the bodies still in the streets, because people are drinking dirty water and scores are getting injuries from debris huge cuts that are getting infected." Reaching hurricane status, Jeanne moved on to strike the Bahamas and Florida the following weekend. Four hurricanes have now made landfall in Florida this season, a record not matched for over 100 years. Jeanne hit the Treasure Coast, the same area as Hurricane Frances three weeks ago.

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• Florida, BBC
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The area covered by China's glaciers has shrunk by over five per cent since the 1960s, according to a new inventory. Yao Tandong, director of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, warns that as much as 64 per cent of China's glaciers may disappear by the end of the 2050s. While glacier melting may mean more water for the inhabitants of the neighbouring regions in the short-term, the end-result will be worsening desertification.

The collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 has speeded up the flow of glaciers into the Weddell Sea, according to studies by US scientists. "If anyone was waiting to find out whether Antarctica would respond quickly to climate warming, I think the answer is yes," said Theodore Scambos from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. The researchers have used imagery from American, Canadian and European satellites.

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• China, China Internet Information Centre
• China, Guardian Unlimited
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• Larsen B, Science Daily
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• Larsen B, NSIDC

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has called on the Group of Eight (G8) nations to adopt a common position to deal with the climate problem. "There's no doubt in my mind that the time to act is now," he said.

Tony Blair has three goals in mind for the G8:

• agreement on the basic science of climate change and the threat it poses;
• agreement on a process to speed up the science, technology and other measures needed to meet the threat; and,
• engagement with countries such as India and China on how to meet their growing energy needs sustainably and on adaptive measures.

The rich nations must "lead the way," he concluded. The next G8 summit will be held in Britain in July 2005.

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• BBC
• Terra Daily
• Text of speech

Tropical Storm Jeanne has killed over 1,100 people in Haiti. It struck over the weekend of September 18/19th. Over 1,000 people remain missing. Flooding and landslides were responsible for the majority of the deaths, with the town of Gonaives hardest hit. Disease threatens and it is proving difficult to get aid and assistance into the region. Over the previous days, seven people lost their lives in the neighbouring Dominican Republic and three in Puerto Rico as Jeanne passed over these countries.

Thirty eight people died as Hurricane Ivan struck the Gulf Coast of the United States over the previous weekend, with winds at 130 mph, then moved inland. The damage was less than expected over much of the region, but Florida's Panhandle was hard-hit. Hurricane Ivan had previously killed 70 people in the Caribbean, passing over Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before grazing Cuba.

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Climate change could reduce China's yield of rice, wheat and maize by up to 37 per cent over the next 20 to 80 years, according to a recent report sponsored by the Chinese and British governments. Cotton yields might increase by 40 per cent over the same period.

Britain's environment minister Elliot Morley concluded that "unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, climate change could seriously affect agricultural production in China." The study was conducted by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and Britain's Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was based on a set of emissions scenarios, which drove climate and agricultural models. A second collaborative phase will begin in 2005.

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• SciDevNet
• Download the summary report

Japan has been hit by a record number of typhoons this season. The numbers making landfall on the Japanese archipelago are the highest since 1951 when statistics began to be collected. Higher water temperatures around the Philippines have meant more storms have formed and warmer water near Japan has maintained their energy. Typhoon Songda struck Japan earlier in the week ending September 12th.

China is still recovering from floods and landslides resulting from violent storms the same week. The death toll in the southwest stands at 164. "There are 2,327 people who have been injured or are sick," according to He Lingyun of the Chongqing disaster relief office. "The death toll may rise further." Meanwhile, Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman isles are recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Ivan, which continues to wreak havoc in the Caribbean.

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Australia and Japan are collaborating on a near zero-emission coal-fired plant for producing electricity. The approach is based on capturing and storing carbon dioxide after what is known as oxy-fuel combustion, replacing air with pure oxygen in the generating process. The technology could be fitted to existing power stations.

"Technologies like oxy-fuel combustion and carbon capture and geological storage will be crucial for reducing emissions in coming decades, along with increased use of renewables and improved energy efficiency," according to Mark O'Neill, executive director of the Australian Coal Association. The project is backed by the Queensland state government and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, with support from the Center for Coal Utilization in Japan and the University of Newcastle and other Australian partners.

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• Yahoo (AFP)

Energy demand could double or even triple by 2050, according to a report by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The study, Facts and Trends to 2050: Energy and Climate Change, is based on the experiences of a cross-section of industry leaders. The aim of the report is to stimulate forward-thinking and action on the part of the business community.

The report advocates improved energy efficiency, diversity and technological development as means by which the developing countries can achieve the living standards of the industrialized world. In launching the report, Björn Stigson, WBCSD President, noted that "a reduction in growth is not an acceptable path to a lower carbon world. We need a decoupling of the current direct link between standards of living and energy consumption."

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• GreenBiz
• Download the WBCSD report

Mount Everest is losing height as a result of global warming, according to a recent survey. The mountain shrank by 1.3 metres in the 33 years to 1999, it was reported at an international conference in Lhasa in the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Yao Tandong, director of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, blamed consolidation of glaciers for the loss of height and warned that the change in climate is also affecting water availability at the oases of western China. It is estimated that close to 600 billion cubic metres of water have been lost since the 1950s.

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• China Internet Information Center
• Panorama, panoramas.dk
• Climate change and the Dolomites (video report), BBC

Scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, have reported a rapid warming of the waters of the Arctic Ocean this year. The sampling took place in the Fram Strait, which lies between Greenland and Spitzbergen. The warming has been accompanied by a retreat of the ice edge in this sector of the Arctic.

The West Spitzbergen Current, which carries warm water from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic, has been warming steadily since the 1990s, but this year's rise, with temperatures up to 0.6 degrees Celsius higher than in 1993, represented "an exceptionally strong signal by ocean standards". The strongest warming has been occurring in the upper 500m of the ocean, but the rise can be detected down to 2,000m.

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• Alfred Wegener Institute

Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has congratulated the world's indigenous peoples on the substantial progress they have made in "creating a policy space" in the environmental treaty processes.

She noted that "the UNFCCC process has been enriched and informed through the participation of indigenous peoples organizations". Parties to the Convention have "acknowledged the importance of the on-going participation by indigenous peoples organization..., especially though discussions on relevant agenda items, participation in workshops and informal contacts". Joke Waller-Hunter issued the statement to mark the International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples on August 9th 2004.

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• Full text of statement
• International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples
• International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples, links

A study by Stanford University researcher Mark Z Jacobson has shown that, overall, biomass burning contributes to global warming. The particles that are released cause short-term cooling, but the greenhouse gases that are generated overwhelm this effect in the long-term.

The study also demonstrated that, because of the time lags between burning and full regrowth, even "renewable" energy sources such as biofuel result in a net accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere. "The control of biomass burning, particularly during permanent deforestation, is a near-certain long-term method of slowing global warming," Jacobson concludes. The study was based on a model and on emissions data.

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• Science Daily
• Journal of Science article (pdf)

Great Lakes United, an environmental group representing citizens of the United States, Canada, First Nations and Tribes, has called on the government of Ontario to introduce new mechanisms, such as Advanced Renewable Energy Tariffs, to promote the development of wind power. Advanced Renewable Energy Tariffs guarantee a minimum price for electricity generated over a minimum term, reducing the risks of investment.

"Germany now has over twice the wind generating capacity as the US and Spain operates as much wind generating capacity as the entire North American continent since they launched Advanced Renewable Energy Tariffs in the early 1990's," said Paul Gipe of Ontario, Sustainable Energy Association (OSEA). "Whether farmers, co-operatives, or First Nations, Advanced Renewable Energy Tariffs allow the connection of renewable power generators with the grid and provide a long-term contract with a fixed-price to the generators," OSEA said in its testimony at public hearings on changes in Ontario's electricity act in response to last year's blackout. OSEA's proposal could result in the installation of 8,000 megawatts of new wind-generating capacity in the power-short province within five years.

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• ENN

Parts of Indonesia are still blanketed by smoke from forest fires and there are warnings that the situation could worsen over coming weeks due to lack of rain during the dry season. According to the Indonesian environment department, illegal land clearing is not being controlled by the local authorities. "Our office cannot do anything but warn local administrations that it is their responsibility to seriously tackle the problem," said Sudariyono, deputy environment minister.

Illegal logging has also been held responsible for the burning. Indonesian Environment Minister Nabiel Makarim has urged Malaysia to help his country halt the smuggling of illegal timber. Relationships between the countries of maritime Southeast Asia have been stressed by the annual occurrence of haze due to Indonesian forest fires. Six ASEAN member states have signed the ASEAN Transboundary Haze Agreement, but Indonesia has not yet ratified the treaty.

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• Terra Daily

A new study of climate change impacts on California warns of an increase in heat-related deaths and water supply at risk as global warming develops. "If we do not take action now to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the consequences for California after about 2050 will become significantly more harmful than if we do take action now," warns Michael Hanemann of the California Climate Change Center at the University of California, Berkeley. Sceptic Marlo Lewis, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, called the study "another piece of climate alarmism. It's layers of assumptions, and it's all designed to paint a very frightening picture."

"The study reveals a big difference in consequences for California's future climate depending on the amount of emissions of heat-trapping gases," according to lead author Katharine Hayhoe of ATMOS Research and Consulting. "We looked at two different future scenarios for California, one heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and one more dependent on investment in alternative technologies. The differences were dramatic." Under the most optimistic projection, periods of extreme heat would quadruple in Los Angeles by the end of the century, killing two to three times more people than in heat waves today. The most pessimistic model projects five to seven times as many heat-related deaths.

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• ENN
• BBC
• Union of Concerned Scientists

An analysis by Princeton University scientists, published in the journal Science, has shown that existing technologies could stop the escalation in the global warming problem for some 50 years. "It certainly explodes the idea that we need to do research for a long time before getting started," concluded Stephen Pacala, one of the study's authors.

Fifteen technologies were identified that are ready for large-scale use and the potential for each to limit greenhouse gas emissions was assessed. The technologies studied ranged from the renewables through nuclear power to energy conservation techniques. The research is part of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative, a Princeton University programme supported by BP and Ford.

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• Princeton University

Australia and China have agreed to a bilateral programme on climate change. "Closer engagement with China is a positive development and one that reflects' the government's active programme of bilateral climate action partnerships," said Foreign Minister Alexander Downer.

Six new projects will be undertaken, including measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from farms using satellite imagery, national- and project-level carbon accounting and the development of a national climate strategy for China. A major workshop will be held in Beijing in September 2004. The meeting will bring together Australian and Chinese industry, research and other non-government bodies.

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• news.com.au
• Memorandum of Understanding

Hurricane Charley scythed through the Caribbean mid-August, strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico after passing over Cuba where 200,000 were moved out of the storm's path. The storm then hit the coast of Florida on Friday August 13th at Punta Gorda, with winds reaching 145 mph and a sea water surge of 13 to 15 feet. Over one million people were evacuated. Latest reports put the death toll at 19.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a normal to above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with only a ten per cent chance of below-normal numbers. As Hurricane Charley approached Florida, Typhoon Rananim struck the Chinese coast Thursday August 12th at Wenling City in Zhejiang province, killing over 100 people.

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The Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is warning that El Niño could develop by late 2004. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode."

The forecasts issued by the various research groups are mixed, with about half predicting the development of El Niño warming and the remainder predicting near-neutral conditions through to the end of the year. "It's way too early to even begin talking about a possible El Niño," reckons Bill Patzert, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory involved in monitoring the Pacific Ocean from space.

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Construction of the latest Habitat for Humanity near-zero-energy house in Lenoir City, Tennessee, USA, has been completed. The project is contributing to the US Department of Energy's goal of leading new home owners and builders toward high energy-efficiency houses that use, amongst other things, solar panels to generate their own electricity.

"The effort must be all-inclusive, so we're not limiting our approach to space heating, cooling, water heating, lighting and major appliances," said Jeff Christian of the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory. "We're also looking at a number of other advanced technologies and we are integrating sensors so the homeowners can monitor their energy usage and savings." The houses feature airtight envelope construction, advanced structural insulated panel systems, insulated precast concrete walls, adaptive mechanical ventilation, cool roof and wall coatings with infrared reflective pigments and solar integrated raised metal seam roofs.

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• Science Daily
• Oak Ridge News
• Structural Insulated Panel Association

The death toll continues to rise in South Asia as the monsoon claims more lives across the region. More than 1,000 people have been killed in India. In Bangladesh, over 600 have lost their lives.

Heavy rain has broken the dry spell in northern and western India, causing some relief in these farming areas. It had been feared that continued drought would affect the economy. "Let us hope the worst is behind us," said Ashok Lahiri, the government's chief economic adviser. In Bangladesh, though, "tens of millions... face grave food insecurity, waterborne disease, a badly mangled infrastructure, and extremely poor prospects for the next rice crop," according to Douglas Casson Coutts, UN resident coordinator.

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The Japanese Environment Ministry is to establish a market next year so companies can trade greenhouse gas emissions. The market will support Japan's efforts to meet its obligations under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

Participating companies will set their own targets for cutting emissions and performance will be assessed by an independent body. Subsidies will be available for investment in equipment, though these will be reclaimed if targets are not met. The Protocol requires Japan to cut emissions by 6 per cent.

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• Japan Times

Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research have reconstructed solar activity over the past 1000 years. Studying links with climate over the most recent 150 years, they conclude that the sun's contribution to global warming has been limited over the past 20-30 years. During the previous 120 years, though, the Sun may have played a greater role in shaping global climate.

The topic of solar effects on climate has proved a controversial issue in recent years, with greenhouse sceptics arguing that variability in the sun could account for much, if not all, of the observed global warming trend. John Daly, who died earlier this year, was a strong advocate of the solar hypothesis and his website continues to advance the solar cause.

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• Science Daily
• Space Daily
• Geosciences Memory Online

South Asia has been hit by the worst floods in 15 years. Torrential rains have inundated parts of India, Bangladesh and Nepal. In Bangladesh, over 500 people have been killed and more than 25 million affected. The death toll over South Asia as a whole has reached 1,500.

The severe flooding in Bangladesh resulted from heavy rains over the eastern side of the subcontinent, draining into the rivers that flow through the Ganges Delta. The capital city of Bangladesh, Dhaka, has been particularly hard-hit, with over one million people stranded in low-lying areas. The total cost of the flooding in Bangladesh has been put at US$7 billion. Heavy rains have also affected China and Japan.

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Scientists have warned that estimates of the amount of greenhouse gases released through forest destruction in the Amazon may have been seriously underestimated. Previous work failed to take full account of the contribution of rotting vegetation, for example, in areas flooded by hydroelectric schemes.

According to Philip Fearnside, of Brazil's National Institute of Amazon Research, around 400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent were released during 2003. This would place Brazil in the world's top five greenhouse contributors. Others disagree. Carlos Nobre, of the National Institute of Space Research, referring to Fearnside's estimate as "unbelievable," puts the figure at 250 million tonnes. The significance of this debate is that the final figure will affect Brazil's position in the carbon trading market and its potential to benefit from CDM schemes.

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• ENN

A recent letter in the British medical journal The Lancet has challenged simplistic views of the link between climate change and the incidence of malaria, calling for greater accuracy in the projections. "Temperature is only one of many, many factors in malaria, and in many cases it's totally irrelevant," according to Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris, speaking to CNN. "Many climate scientists don't know anything about the complexities of malaria," he continued.

Alistair Woodward, of the University of Auckland in New Zealand, responded that future risks had to be mapped out with imperfect models, but governments couldn't afford to wait till the science was certain before acting. "In terms of malaria and many other (mosquito-borne) diseases... a changed climate will stress health care systems in some parts of the world," he said. 150,000 people die as a result of malaria each year. The disease kills a child every 30 seconds in Africa and accounts for 40 per cent of health budgets in some countries.

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• Letter to The Lancet
• CNN
• World Health Organization

South Asia has been hit by the worst floods in 15 years. Torrential rains have inundated parts of India, Bangladesh and Nepal, with over 300 people killed and more than eight million homeless.

Speaking to Reuters, SR Islam, flood control officer in Guwahati, India, reported that "most of the rivers are overflowing and fast changing course, submerging large areas of human population." The capital city of Bangladesh, Dhaka, has been hard-hit, with over one million people stranded in low-lying areas. Heavy rains have also affected China and Japan.

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• Straits Times

Junior British Foreign Office Minister, Bill Rammell, has overruled a high court decision that the islanders of Diego Garcia have a right to return to the homes from which they were evicted 30 years ago to make way for a US air and naval base. One reason Rammell cites is the risk of flooding due to global warming that, he reckons, will render the islands uninhabitable in decades to come.

Alan Vincatassin, leader of British Indian Ocean Territory Islanders' Movement, responded: "It is totally horrendous and unacceptable. I am very angry. This law is the most barbarous I have seen in the name of the Queen. It is because the US wants to have these islands empty they [the Foreign Office] have removed the right of abode." The strategic importance of Diego Garcia has increased in recent years as it provides a secure base for the launch of attacks in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

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• Guardian Unlimited

"African Americans are the most vulnerable and also suffer the most from the effects of climate change," said Michel Gelobter, Executive Director of Redefining Progress. The research firm, Redefining Progress, has just completed a study of the impact of climate change on the African American community for the Center for Policy Analysis and Research, the policy arm of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation (CBCF).

"We are long past the point where global warming is considered a myth. We are seeing its effects all around us, especially in my hometown of New Orleans, Louisiana, which is expected to experience an increased incidence of flooding that could potentially destabilize its economy and endanger its populace." said Rep. William Jefferson (D-LA) Chair of the CBCF. The report finds stark differences in those who benefit from climate change and those who bear the burden. CBCF President Weldon J. Rougeau said, "the impact of climate change on the health of our communities is devastating in as many ways as you can count it."

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• ENN
• Full report

South Asia has been hit by the worst floods in 15 years. Torrential rains have inundated parts of India, Bangladesh and Nepal, with over 300 people killed and more than eight million homeless.

Speaking to Reuters, SR Islam, flood control officer in Guwahati, India, reported that "most of the rivers are overflowing and fast changing course, submerging large areas of human population." The capital city of Bangladesh, Dhaka, has been hard-hit, with over one million people stranded in low-lying areas. Heavy rains have also affected China and Japan.

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• BBC
• BBC
• Straits Times

A new study has shown that rice crops are seriously at risk from climate change. An average daily increase of one degree Celsius produces a 10 per cent drop in yield, outweighing any benefits from increased carbon dioxide in the air.

Data from thirteen years of field trials at the International Rice Research Institute Farm in the Philippines has shown that the decline in yield is related to higher night-time temperatures. Commenting on the results, Professor Tim Setter, from Cornell University, noted that higher temperatures at night "could consume carbohydrates in a nonproductive way, and by reducing the reserves of carbohydrates, particularly at time of flowering and early grain filling, would decrease the number of kernels that would be set."

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A study of the formation of high-altitude clouds, cirrus, generated by thunderstorms has revealed they have a key role to play in influencing global warming rates. "We've got some amazing results that no one anticipated," said Anthony Del Genio from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The results of the study, which was based on aircraft observations, satellite data and ground stations, show that, when newly formed, the thick cirrus clouds reflected much more sunlight back to space than had been expected. In contrast, as they thin and disperse, these clouds act like a blanket, trapping heat close to the Earth's surface. The study showed that, here too, the effect was much stronger than previously thought to be the case. Both mechanisms could affect rates of global warming, with the net effect dependent on just how cloud cover responds to the changing climate. Further experiments are needed to see how representative these findings are of cirrus world-wide.

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• Christian Science Monitor
• Wikipedia

"It's one thing to say that underground is a great place to store carbon dioxide, but it's another thing to be able to prove it as we have done," says Ben Rostron from the University of Alberta. The $28 million International Energy Agency Weyburn CO₂ Monitoring and Storage Project is safely burying the gas and reducing emissions to the atmosphere.

The gas is being stored in a partially-depleted oil reservoir in Saskatchewan. It is compressed in the United States, transferred by pipeline to the Weyburn field in Saskatchewan and then injected into the reservoir. More than 1.9 billion cubic metres have been buried to date. There is considerable international interest in whether or not carbon sequestration can play a significant part in limiting the rise in atmospheric concentrations.

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• Science Daily
• The Weyburn Monitoring Project

Climate can change rapidly in response to centuries of environmental abuse, according to Macquarie University researchers studying the effects of land clearance.

Modelling the effects of land clearance in Australia since European settlement began, the team found that the results reflected rainfall changes observed over recent decades. "It scared the hell out of us," said Andy Pitman. With forest clearance, moist winds from the Indian Ocean are no longer being slowed down. This reduces turbulence and rainfall. "Without the tree cover, the water in the atmosphere flows across the landscape and is deposited elsewhere. Our results suggest, and observations indicate, that it's falling farther inland."

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• Sydney Morning Herald

The Twentieth Session of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Bonn, Germany, 16-25th June 2004. Lengthy discussions on good practice guidance for land use, land use change and forestry ended with some commentators suggesting that the result may encourage Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

At an in-session workshop on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, southern speakers stressed the need to take account of local knowledge in facilitating adaptation. Anthony Nyong of the University of Jos, Nigeria, said that local stakeholders’ views must be considered if successful adaptation measures are to be developed. Ahsan Ahmed, of the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad Centre for Water and Environment emphasized the importance of field-level discussions on indigenous solutions.

More information

• Linkages - daily reports
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin - Adaptation Workshop
• Theme sites

Climate warming means erosion and flooding for Native Alaskan villages. "As the calming hand of the ice on the Arctic Ocean grows more fragile, so does our coastline," warns Barrow Mayor Edith Vorderstrasse during a Senate hearing in Anchorage, Alaska.

Air temperatures in Alaska have risen by one degree Celsius a decade in recent times, many times higher than the global warming rate, as a result of the high sensitivity of polar latitudes. "Whether it's natural or global climate change, our state is having an impact greater than any other part of the United States," says Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens. Arguing that the villagers of Point Hope, who may be forced to re-locate, could not be blamed for living in what is now a vulnerable location, he noted that the village has "been there since before the birth of Christ. You can't quite say the decision to locate their village, when it was made, was right or wrong."

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• CNN
• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

In the United States, carbon dioxide emissions related to energy use rose by close to one per cent during 2003. Energy-related emissions account for 82 per cent of the United States total.

The rise was largely due to cold weather and the increase in fuel used for domestic heating, according to the Department of Energy. Industries have also switched from natural gas to coal and petroleum, which release more carbon per unit of energy generated, due to price rises. House building and an improving economy have also contributed.

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• ENN
• Energy Information Administration

The Twentieth Session of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Bonn, Germany, 16-25th June 2004. Lengthy discussions on good practice guidance for land use, land use change and forestry ended with some commentators suggesting that the result may encourage Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

At an in-session workshop on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, southern speakers stressed the need to take account of local knowledge in facilitating adaptation. Anthony Nyong of the University of Jos, Nigeria, said that local stakeholders’ views must be considered if successful adaptation measures are to be developed. Ahsan Ahmed, of the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad Centre for Water and Environment emphasized the importance of field-level discussions on indigenous solutions.

More information

• Linkages - daily reports
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin - Adaptation Workshop
• Theme sites

The Twentieth Session of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Bonn, Germany, 16-25th June 2004. Lengthy discussions on good practice guidance for land use, land use change and forestry ended with some commentators suggesting that the result may encourage Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

At an in-session workshop on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, southern speakers stressed the need to take account of local knowledge in facilitating adaptation. Anthony Nyong of the University of Jos, Nigeria, said that local stakeholders’ views must be considered if successful adaptation measures are to be developed. Ahsan Ahmed, of the Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad Centre for Water and Environment emphasized the importance of field-level discussions on indigenous solutions.

More information

• Linkages - daily reports
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin - Adaptation Workshop
• Theme sites

Malaysia has complained that Indonesian forest fires threaten its tourist industry, demanding that the Indonesian government crack down on fires started for land clearance.

Smoke generated by hundreds of fires on Sumatra has grounded local flights and is affecting cities in nearby Malaysia where schools may be closed because of the health risk. "During the dry season, local farmers usually clear land using the slash and burn method. It's a tradition and it is hard to stop. We can only hope for rain," said Transtoto Handadhari for the Ministry of Forestry. Current conditions are the worst since the region-wide haze of 1997/98.

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• ENN
• Straits Times Interactive
• BBC

Rapid urbanization is increasing southeastern China's warming rate at a much faster rate than other regions, according to a new report. "These results are further evidence of the human impact on climate," said Liming Zhou, researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

The mean temperature over southeastern China has risen by 0.05 degrees Celsius a decade since 1979, with nighttime low temperatures rising at a greater rate than daytime highs. "Human-induced changes in land use... may have changed climate as much as greenhouse gases over some particular regions of the land," says Liming Zhou. To improve accuracy, the study blended conventional station observations with model-based data, satellite records and census information.

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• Science Daily
• Wikipedia

Experts at the United Nations University (UNU) warn that the number of people vulnerable to floods could rise to two billion by 2050.

The projected doubling in the number of people at risk is due to climate change, rising sea levels and deforestation. "Greater global capacity to monitor and forecast extreme events" is needed to adapt to the changing threat, says Janos Bogardi, head of a new UNU institute in Bonn, Germany. It is estimated that, worldwide, floods presently affect over 520 million people each year, resulting in 25,000 deaths.

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• Science Daily
• Aquamedia

Standards for certifying land-use projects that reduce global warming, conserve the environment and alleviate poverty are being put forward by the Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance for peer review and comment.

The Alliance plans to help organizations identify multiple-benefit carbon dioxide reduction projects. "Integrated projects are the most immediate and realistic solutions to combat biodiversity loss, reduce poverty, and fight climate change," claims John-O Niles, project manager. The standards will work in developing, developed or emerging economies and can be used for projects with private or public investment. They can also be used for land management projects without a climate change dimension.

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• ENN
• Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance
• UNFCCC

One third of the planet is at risk from desertification, according to the United Nations. "It's a creeping catastrophe," says Michel Smitall, UN spokesman.

The tenth anniversary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification has been marked by an acceleration in the rate of desertification. 3,436 square kilometres turned into desert each year during the second half of the 1990s compared to 2,100 square kilometres a years during the 1980s. The risks are "substantial and clear," according to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Around 135 million people could be displaced. The most vulnerable areas are on the fringes of deserts where people already struggle to make a living.

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• Sydney Morning Herald
• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

Namibia has reported the threat of absolute water scarcity by 2020 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

As global warming develops, "the additional stress on the water sector could be severe" and "the impact on... human development in Namibia would be extreme," according to the latest report to the UNFCCC launched recently by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism. The productivity of agriculture and marine fisheries and household food security would all suffer.

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• allAfrica
• First National Communication (2002)

A new satellite, Aura, will study ozone and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. "This is going to be relevant to every man and woman on the street," claimed Richard Holloway of the UK's Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.

The satellite's instruments will study conditions on the boundary between the Earth's lower atmosphere, where the weather occurs, and the upper atmosphere, home to the ozone layer that protects life below from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Monitoring the atmosphere is critical to understanding the mechanisms that underlie the climate problem.

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• New Scientist
• NASA

Dramatic warming 55 million years ago has been linked to a massive release of methane from hydrothermal vents beneath the Nordic Seas.

According to Professor Born Jamtveit of the University of Oslo, the release was "enormous. It corresponds to the amount of gas in the petroleum resources in the whole Earth today." Other scientists are sceptical, claiming that the release would not have been sufficient to trigger a five degrees Celsius warming that lasted 100,000 years.

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• BBC
• NASA

Haiti and the Dominican Republic have been hard hit by flooding, with over 1700 feared dead. The impact has been aggravated by deforestation.

Flash floods destroyed homes and washed away roads in towns and villages across Haiti and the Dominican Republic. "We believe there are more than a total of 48,000 people affected in the two countries," said Elisabeth Byrs, a Geneva-based spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The UN's World Food Programme is flying 8,000 tonnes of aid into the region as part of a massive relief effort.

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• BBC
• BBC

• ABC News
• Newsday

"There is dramatic climate change happening in the Arctic right now... about two to three times the pace of the whole globe," said Robert Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).

As a result of the warming, Inuit hunters are reported to be falling more frequently through the thinning ice, buildings on permafrost are being destabilized and ecological habitats are being disrupted. There may be benefits, though, as a sea route from the Pacific to the Atlantic open up and Russia gains easier access to oil and gas. The new ACIA report combines input from scientists, indigenous peoples and eight Arctic rim nations.

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• CNN
• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Nepal can act as a model country for the use of alternative energy to mitigate global climate change, according to a recent report.

Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emissions are less than 0.01 percent of the global total but it has great potential for clean energy. For example, a promising alternative to fossil-fuel based vehicles is electric vehicles. Nepal is ideal for promotion of electric vehicles because they use hydropower, a local and clean resource, instead of imported fossil fuel, and the driving conditions are appropriate.

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• Earth Times