Tiempo Climate Newswatch

In his statement at the opening of the high-level segment of the Copenhagen climate summit, Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, noted that compassion is what makes nations great. Unfortunately, much of the summit was notable more for expressions of naked self-interest and posturing than concern for the planet and its people. Rifts between the industrialized nations and the developing nations, and also within the G77 group of developing nations, brought the negotiations to a halt on a number of occasions, with disputes over who should commit to emissions constraints and whether the Kyoto Protocol has a future or not as well as anger over draft negotiating texts. Outside the conference centre, demonstrators met with determined opposition from the Danish police. As the high-level meeting of government leaders drew to a close, the Copenhagen Accord emerged, drafted by a five-nation group consisting of the United States and the BASIC countries of Brazil, South Africa, India and China. With a number of countries objecting that the Accord had not been reached by "due process" and lacked specific targets, the summit adopted a decision that merely took note of the agreement.

The Accord, which is not legally binding, commits signatories to "enhance long-term cooperative action," recognizing that "deep cuts in emissions are required according to science." It acknowledges the scientific view that the global temperature rise should be limited to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. There is provision for review in 2015, including "consideration of strengthening the long-term goal referencing various matters presented by the science, including in relation to temperature rises of 1.5 degrees Celsius." The Accord commits industrialized signatories to submit emissions targets for the year 2020, which will be appended to the agreement. International verification of emissions reduction will take place in these countries. Mitigation actions will be undertaken by developing nations and reported on, with some international checks though national sovereignty will be respected. In the case of the least developed countries and small island developing states, mitigation actions will be voluntary. The Accord commits the developed world to finding new and additional resources to support developing nations in the areas of mitigation, reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, adaptation, technology development and transfer and capacity building. The funding commitment is in line with an earlier proposal by the African nations: approaching US$30 billion over the period 2010-2012, rising to a target of US$100 billion in 2020. A significant portion of the funding will flow through the newly-established Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. The Accord itself contains no commitment to develop a legally-binding treaty by the end of 2010, though a proposal attached to the document does suggest this goal. A decision on the future of the Kyoto Protocol was deferred.

Barack Obama, United States president, described the Copenhagen Accord as an "unprecedented breakthrough" covering, as it does, action by both developed and developing nations. "We have come a long way, but we have much further to go," he said. Waiting to reach a full, binding agreement could have resulted in "such frustration and cynicism that rather than taking one step forward, we ended up taking two steps back," he continued. Venezuelan delegate Claudia Salerno Caldera, however, saw the deal as a "coup d'etat against the authority of the United Nations. "What we have after two years of negotiation is a half-baked text of unclear substance," said Kim Carstensen from WWF’s Global Climate Initiative. Oxfam International described the deal as a triumph of spin over substance. "This agreement barely papers over the huge differences between countries which have plagued these talks for two years," said Jeremy Hobbs, executive director of Oxfam International. The European Union had been sidelined during the drafting of the Accord, accepting the outcome on the basis that some agreement was better than none. German chancellor Angela Merkel said that she had "mixed feelings" about the Accord, which she regarded as only a first step. United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon acknowledged that the Copenhagen Accord was "not everything we had hoped for" but said that it was an "essential beginning. He stressed that a legally-binding agreement must be in place during 2010.

Japan has made the largest commitment of any industrialized nation in support for developing nations in their efforts to limit climate change and its impacts with a pledge of US$19.5 billion. "Japan as a country takes very seriously its responsibility in the international community," said environment minister Sakihito Ozawa.

The African group of nations, with backing from the European Union, advanced a financing plan at the Copenhagen climate summit, starting with US$30 billion over a three-year start-up period, rising to US$50 billion a year by 2015 and US$100 billion by the end of that decade. The proposal was incorporated, in broad outline, in the Copenhagen Accord, thereby securing the support of the Africa group of nations for the agreement. Announcing the plan, Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi suggested that 40 per cent of the start-up funds should go to Africa. Over the long-term, at least half the funding should be directed towards adaptation in vulnerable nations and poor countries and regions. "I know my proposal will disappoint those Africans who, from the point of view of justice, have asked for full compensation of the damage done to our development prospects. Because we have more to lose than others, we have to be prepared to be flexible," he said.

Good progress was made at the Copenhagen climate summit in developing the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) programme. The United States made a conditional pledge of one billion dollars towards initial financing over the period to 2012. "Protecting the world's forests is not a luxury. It's a necessity," said United States agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack. "This substantial commitment is reflective of our recognition that international public finance must play a role in developing countries' efforts to slow, halt and reverse deforestation," he continued. "This is what's needed to break the log jam of the REDD negotiations here in Copenhagen and spark the additional funding needed to address the global challenge of deforestation," commented Andrew Deutz from The Nature Conservancy.

New Zealand launched the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases in Copenhagen. The Alliance involves 20 or more countries in a multi-year programme aimed at reducing emissions from livestock, cropping and rice production. "Fourteen per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions are from agriculture, but for New Zealand and parts of the developing world, that figure is much higher," said Tim Groser, New Zealand's associate climate change issues minister. "There is an urgent need to develop technologies and practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration in agriculture while enhancing food security," he added. The United States Department of Agriculture will expand research on climate change mitigation in this sector by US$90 million over the next four years. "No single nation has all of the resources needed to tackle agricultural greenhouse gas emissions while at the same time enhancing food production and food security," observed agriculture secretary Vilsack. "We will not only pool our talents and existing resources but draw new resources, and even new scientists, to better understand climate change in an agricultural context and in so doing tackle one of the most important international issues of our time."

"Copenhagen can and must be a turning point in the world’s efforts to prevent runaway climate change," charged United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon as the Copenhagen climate summit got underway. "Our target, our goal, is to have a legally binding treaty... as soon as possible in 2010," he said. "But before that, we must have a strong political agreement in Copenhagen... The more ambitious, the stronger agreement we have in Copenhagen, the easier, the quicker the process we will have to a legally binding treaty in 2010," he continued. "This is our commitment." As the summit opened, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, prime minister of Denmark, observed that climate change knows no borders. "It does not discriminate, it affects us all," he said. "And we are here today because we are all committed to take action. That is our common point of departure - the magnitude of the challenge before us is to translate this political will into a strong political approach."

According to Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, it is likely that negotiators will work towards two agreements: first, a second period under the Kyoto Protocol and, second, a new treaty under the convention that could be ratified later by all nations including the United States. "What I’m also hoping is that decisions that come out of this meeting will make immediate action possible," he said. "The decision would say a financial mechanism is hereby established, a technology framework is hereby created, an adaptation programme is hereby approved." The United Kingdom, Australia, Mexico and Norway have proposed a set of guiding principles for "green funds," which they hope will break the deadlock over support for developing country action on emissions mitigation and adaptation.

During the first week of the Copenhagen climate summit, Tuvalu and other smaller developing nations made waves by proposing discussions on a legally-binding amendment to the Kyoto Protocol that would, for the first time, set emissions targets for major developing nations such as China and India. "We know the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol is not complete and we want to create an impulse for a stronger commitment," said Taukiei Kitara from Tuvalu's delegation. The move was opposed by the larger developing nations and disagreement over whether to proceed through open contact group or informal private discussions proved difficult to resolve.

A leaked negotiating text developed by the Danish government has angered developing nations. The anger is, in part, directed at what is perceived as a secretive and exclusive process, but there is also serious concern that the current draft makes no mention of extension of the Kyoto Protocol, a goal that developing nations regard as an essential commitment on the part of the industrialized world. Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, speaking for the Group of 77 developing nations, described the draft as a "serious violation that threatens the success of the Copenhagen negotiating process." The Danish government was quick to respond that the text was not a "secret Danish draft" for a new climate change agreement. "In this kind of process, many different working papers are circulated amongst many different parties with their hands on the process," a statement from the Danish Ministry of Energy and Climate said. "These papers are the basis for informal consultations that contribute with input used for testing various positions." A proposed accord drafted by China, India, South Africa and Brazil has also been leaked. The accord would commit industrialized nations to "multiply by eight" their commitment under the existing Kyoto Protocol for a second, seven-year period to 2020. The commitment, a reduction in emissions of around 40 per cent below 1990 levels, must be made "mainly through domestic measures."

The first decade of the present century is "by far" the warmest since instrumental climate records began in the 19th century, according to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2009 is set to become the fifth warmest year on record. "We've seen above average temperatures in most continents, and only in North America were there conditions that were cooler than average," reported WMO secretary-general Michel Jarraud. "We are in a warming trend - we have no doubt about it," he continued.

Asked whether the recent theft of data, computer programs and emails from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, Jarraud responded that the temperature estimates came from three independent sources and they all showed the same result. Vicky Pope from the United Kingdom Met Office said that the figures "highlight that the world continues to see global temperatures rise, most of which is due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere." The evidence "clearly shows that the argument that global warming has stopped is flawed," she concluded.

"A dramatic negotiation process in its final lap" is how Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme described the run-up to the Copenhagen climate summit. "To me, there is enough reason to have a sense of optimism right now that a deal could be made in Copenhagen that is not just a political deal, but is meaningful in terms of the scientific targets," he continued. Steiner cited the recent American proposal to cut domestic emissions by four per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2020 and China's commitment to substantial improvements in carbon intensity over that time period as good grounds for optimism.

Commonwealth leaders, meeting in Trinidad, want to see "an ambitious mitigation outcome at Copenhagen to reduce the risks of dangerous climate change without compromising the legitimate development aspirations of developing countries." They called on the developed world to address the needs of developing countries by providing new financing, support for adaptation, technology transfer, capacity building and incentives for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. "Developed countries should pay attention to the concerns and interests of developing countries," said Qin Gang, spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, after a meeting with India, Brazil, South Africa and Sudan to discuss the climate negotiations. "On the one hand, they should take concrete measures to work out a mid-term emissions reduction plan. On the other hand, they should provide financial support, technology transfer and aid... to developing countries, he continued.

The Australian Senate has rejected the government's proposed emissions trading scheme after the opposition leader, who had brokered a deal supporting the plan, was replaced. The government will re-introduce the bill, giving the opposition Liberal party a chance to "work through and deal with this legislation in the national interest," according to Julia Gillard, acting prime minister. The defeat was welcomed by the Greens party, who called the scheme "a dirty deal, an exercise in double think, and a deceit on the Australian people."

India could commit to reducing its carbon intensity by 24 per cent from 2005 levels by the year 2020, according to government sources. "The Americans are now on board after President Obama's offer. China has expressed its willingness to stick its neck out. Now, we are also willing to do our bit, China-style," said a government official in an anonymous interview with the Washington Post. "The two developments signaled to us that the global politics has moved beyond everybody sitting behind their tables and doing nothing. So, a lot of number-crunching is going on now."

Leading climate scientist James Hansen, head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in the United States, believes that the world would be better off if the Copenhagen climate negotiations collapse. "I would rather it not happen if people accept that as being the right track because it's a disaster track," he said in an interview with the Guardian. "The whole approach is so fundamentally wrong that it is better to reassess the situation."

At the root of Hansen's opposition is emissions trading. "This is analogous to the indulgences that the Catholic church sold in the middle ages," he argues. "The bishops collected lots of money and the sinners got redemption. Both parties liked that arrangement despite its absurdity. That is exactly what's happening. We've got the developed countries who want to continue more or less business as usual and then these developing countries who want money and that is what they can get through offsets [sold through the carbon markets]."

United States president Barack Obama is to attend the imminent Copenhagen climate summit. He will table a commitment to reduce national emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by the year 2020. This target has, however, yet to receive approval from the United States Congress and would, according to the White House, be "in the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies." There was disappointment that Obama's visit will be on the second day of the meeting rather than towards the end when the negotiations will be most intense. "The Copenhagen climate summit is not about a photo opportunity," said Kyle Ash from Greenpeace USA. "It's about getting a global agreement to stop climate chaos. President Obama needs to be there at the same time as all the other world leaders."

China, for its part, has announced that it will cut carbon intensity, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of production, by 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by the year 2020. Unofficial calculations suggest that the reduction would result in a cut in greenhouse gas emissions to about 13 per cent below a "business as usual" projection. Frank Jotzo of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University in Canberra commented that the reduction is a "little less than what China was expected to announce." He considers, however, that the commitment is "broadly compatible with other countries' proposed level of effort, like the United States' 17 per cent reduction target, taking into account China's development status." According to Fatih Birol at the International Energy Agency, China's goal would mean that it alone would be responsible for more than a quarter of the global reduction needed to limit planetary warming to two degrees Celsius. He welcomed the announcements from the United States and China as "extremely important and positive."

Cutting greenhouse pollution could save millions of lives by reducing preventable deaths such as heart and lung diseases, according to a series of studies published in medical journal The Lancet. "Relying on fossil fuels leads to unhealthy lifestyles, increasing our chances for getting sick and in some cases takes years from our lives," reports United States Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. "As greenhouse gas emissions go down, so do deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. This is not a small effect."

The researchers considered the immediate health benefits of taking action to curb greenhouse pollution by, for example, eliminating charcoal-burning cooking stoves or switching to low-polluting cars. For Delhi, India, the results suggest that greater use of low-polluting cars could save nearly 1,700 lost years of life for every million residents. If people drove less and walked or biked more, the extra saved years would rise to 12,500 years because of reduced levels of heart disease. "Here are ways you can attack major health problems at the same time as dealing with climate change," said Paul Wilkinson of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The 2030 Water Resources Group, a consortium established to create an integrated fact base on reducing water scarcity, has predicted that water needs in India could double by the year 2030. Rising agricultural demand is the main factor. Some of the most highly-populated river basins - the Ganga, the Krishna and the Indus - face the largest absolute deficiencies. The Group recommends investment in irrigation efficiency and rainwater management that could reduce the projected gap between demand and "accessible, reliable, environmentally sustainable" supply by 80 per cent.

The Group studied four representative countries and areas - China, India, South Africa and Sao Paulo state in Brazil - together accounting for 40 per cent of the world's population and 42 per cent of projected 2030 water demand. "There is no single water crisis," the Group's report concludes. "Different countries, even in the same region, face very different problems, and generalizations are of little help." Nevertheless, in any region, "many of the most cost-effective measures identified, especially those that increase efficiency and productivity of water use, can pay back their initial capital investment in three years or less."

Global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 29 per cent over the nine years to 2008, reports the Global Carbon Project, an international team of scientists, in the latest assessment of the global carbon budget. "The current growth in carbon dioxide emissions is closely linked to growth in Gross Domestic Product," commented contributor Mike Raupach of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia. "Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion have increased 41 per cent above 1990 levels [the baseline for the Kyoto Protocol] with emissions continuing to track close to the worst-case scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," he continued. "There will be a small downturn in emissions because of the global financial crisis, but emissions growth will resume when the economy recovers unless the global effort to reduce emissions is accelerated."

The latest estimate of the global carbon budget shows that emissions from land-use change have remained almost constant since 2000. They now account for a much smaller proportion of total anthropogenic emissions, dropping from 20 per cent in 2000 to 12 per cent in 2008. The budget also indicates that natural carbon sinks have not been able to keep pace with rising carbon dioxide levels. "On average only 45 per cent of each year’s emissions remain in the atmosphere," said Global Carbon Project member Shobhakar Dhakal from the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. "The remaining 55 per cent is absorbed by land and ocean sinks. However, the carbon dioxide sinks have not kept pace with rapidly increasing emissions, as the fraction of emissions remaining in the atmosphere has increased over the past 50 years. This is of concern as it indicates the vulnerability of the sinks to increasing emissions and climate change, making natural sinks less efficient ‘cleaners’ of human carbon pollution."

Barack Obama, United States president, wants the Copenhagen climate talks in December to result in a global accord that has an immediate practical impact. Speaking after meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao, he said that "our aim there is... not a partial accord or a political declaration, but rather an accord that covers all the issues in the negotiations and one that has immediate operational effect." "We agreed that each of us would take significant mitigation actions and stand behind these commitments," he continued. "As the two largest consumers and producers of energy, there can be no solution to this challenge without the efforts of both China and the United States."

In Copenhagen, ministers from 42 countries met to discuss proposals to resolve deadlocks hampering progress towards agreement at the forthcoming climate change talks. Denmark has proposed that funds to help developing nations should be pledged for immediate release at the time of the December talks even if a legally-binding global agreement has to be delayed to 2010. Russia is prepared to increase its greenhouse gas emissions target from a 15 per cent reduction below 1990 levels to 20 to 25 per cent, according to the European Union (EU). "With the Copenhagen conference starting in just over two weeks, we have made very important progress today and I very much welcome the signal from President Medvedev today of their proposed emissions reduction target of 20 to 25 per cent," said José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, after a EU-Russia summit. The new target brings Russia into line with the EU commitment.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has called on policy makers to heed the role of women - who make up the majority of the poor - in combating climate change. The international community’s fight against climate change would be more successful, State of World Population 2009 concludes, if policies, programmes and treaties consider the needs, rights and potential of women. "Poor women in poor countries are among the hardest hit by climate change, even though they contributed the least to it," said UNFPA head Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "With the possibility of a climate catastrophe on the horizon, we cannot afford to relegate the world's 3.4 billion women and girls to the role of victim," she added. "Wouldn't it make more sense to have 3.4 billion agents for change?"

"There can be no food security without climate security," warned United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon as he opened the United Nations World Summit on Food Security in Rome. The conference ended, though, with no measurable targets nor specific deadlines for aid, leaving only, in Oxfam's words, "crumbs" for commitments. Expressing his regret, summit host Jacques Diouf, head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said that "we must move from words to actions. Let us do it for a more prosperous, more just, more equitable and more peaceful world. But above all, let us do it quickly because the poor and the hungry cannot wait." As Diouf noted, the summit did commit to renewed efforts to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving hunger by 2015 as well as improved international coordination through broadened participation by the public and private sector, international funding for agriculture in developing countries and new investments in agricultural production there.

Current energy policies are not sustainable and a vast transformation of energy use is needed to avert the worst consequences of climate change, according to the latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA). "Continuing on today’s energy path, without any change in government policy, would mean rapidly increasing dependence on fossil fuels, with alarming consequences for climate change and energy security," the report concludes. Without a new global agreement on climate change, carbon emissions could rise by 40 per cent by the year 2030 with China responsible for more than half that growth.

There are, however, grounds for optimism. "There are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security – and these are within reach," said Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director. As a result of the global financial crisis, projected global demand is lower than in last year's report. Reduced economic activity is expected to result in a fall of global carbon emissions by three per cent this year and governments have introduced new energy-savings programmes. Assessing what is required to keep atmospheric carbon-equivalent concentrations to 450 parts per million by volume, the report concludes that, compared to the reference scenario, a cumulative incremental investment of US$10.5 trillion is needed in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency by the year 2030. This cost, though, is largely offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits. "The challenge for climate negotiators is to agree on instruments that will give the right incentives to ensure that the necessary investments are made and on mechanisms to finance those investments in non-OECD countries," Tanaka observed.

President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives has called on vulnerable countries to form a carbon neutral bloc. "If vulnerable, developing countries make a commitment to carbon neutrality, those opposed to change have nowhere left to hide," he said. "If those with the least start doing the most, what excuse can the rich have for continuing inaction?" Nasheed was addressing the V11 group at the Climate Vulnerable Forum. The Forum was hosted by the Maldives and attended by Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam, Kiribati, Barbados, Bhutan, Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania.

In the event, the conference participants stopped somewhat short of a commitment to carbon neutrality, declaring a determination to "show moral leadership on climate change through actions as well as words, by acting now to commence greening our economies as our contribution towards achieving carbon neutrality." The V11 group called on the developed countries to provide "public money amounting to at least 1.5 per cent of their gross domestic product, in addition to innovative sources of finance, annually by 2015 to assist developing countries make their transition to a climate resilient low-carbon economy." This grant-based finance must be predictable, sustainable, transparent, new and additional, on top of existing commitments to deliver 0.7 per cent of gross national income as overseas development assistance.

Areas of ocean exposed by melting ice are soaking up more carbon dioxide from the air, as much as 3.5 million tonnes of carbon a year, according to a new study from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). "Although this is a small amount of carbon compared to global emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere it is nevertheless an important discovery. It shows nature's ability to thrive in the face of adversity," commented Lloyd Peck from BAS. Over the past 50 years, melting ice has opened up at least 24,000 km₂ of new open water, which has been colonized by carbon-absorbing phytoplankton.

Arid soils may lose nitrogen in gas form as climate warms, warn researchers from Cornell University in the United States. "This is a way that nitrogen is lost from an ecosystem that people have never accounted for before," says Jed Sparks from Cornell. "It allows us to finally understand the dynamics of nitrogen in arid systems." Small patches of soil in the Mojave Desert were covered with sealed containers to measure gases escaping from the soil under different temperature conditions "At 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, we found rapid increases in gases coming out of the soil," reports Cornell's Carmody McCalley With arid lands also affected directly by climate change, "we're on a trajectory where plant life in arid ecosystems could cease to do well," she warns.

African nations focused the agenda of the Barcelona Climate Change Talks on ambitious emissions cuts for the industrialized nations by walking out of the meeting. They ended the boycott after one day when extra time was devoted to emissions targets. "The position we have taken is in no way intended to block the progress, but to ensure we have ambitious numbers," said Pa Ousman Jarju from the Gambian delegation. "Their move leaves Africa in a much stronger position. So far Africa has not been recognized in the talks at all," said Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development, based in London. "It's really good that the Africans have finally been able to stand up together," commented Fiona Musana of Greenpeace Africa. "That sends a strong signal."

The Barcelona meeting was the final negotiating session before the crucial United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December. Progress was made towards a legally-binding agreement, particularly in the areas of adaptation, technology cooperation, reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries and mechanisms to disburse funds for developing countries. There was no resolution, however, regarding the issue of emission targets for developed countries nor any commitment on the amount of financial support for developing countries. "Without these two pieces of the puzzle in place, we will not have a deal in Copenhagen," said Yvo de Boer from the climate treaty secretariat, "So leadership at the highest level is required to unlock the pieces," he continued.

China has again opposed the view that developing nations should take on emissions control commitments at the Copenhagen climate talks. Ma Zhaoxu from the Foreign Ministry repeated that the developed nations have "the historical responsibility on climate change" and should "take the lead in the reduction of emissions" and help developing countries with capital and technology and capacity building. Ma was responding to comments made by United States climate envoy Todd Stern when he appeared before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington DC.

"No country holds the fate of the Earth in its hands more than China," Stern told the committee. Emerging giants like China, India and Brazil should pull their weight, he said. While the new climate regime could include exemptions for developing countries in order to protect economic growth, he said, "what we do not agree with... is that we should commit to implement what we promise to do, while major developing countries make no commitment at all." Stern recognized that developing nations are addressing the climate problem. "Paradoxically, while the negotiations are in a difficult state, it's also true that we are at a moment in history when more countries, including China, Brazil and South Africa, are taking stronger actions or are poised to take stronger actions than ever before to combat climate change."

Peatland loss in Southeast Asia is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new report commissioned by Wetlands International. In this region, peat emissions are equivalent to 70 per cent of all fossil fuel emissions. Major sources are deforestation and fire and conversion to palm oil and pulpwood plantations explained study coordinator Hans Joosten of Greifswald University in Germany. Organic carbon built up over thousands of years is exposed to the air, decomposes and turns into carbon dioxide.

These emissions have yet to be addressed effectively in the climate treaty process, according to Susanna Tol of Wetlands International. Reporting is only voluntary at present. "We call for mandatory accounting of emissions from peatlands," she said. Last year, the palm oil boom in Indonesia resulted in emissions from peat rising to one and a half times those from burning fossil fuels. Rosediana Suharto of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission argues that controls are in place to preserve peatlands with high carbon storage. "We have not been wantonly cutting down forests the way the green groups accuse us of doing." Since 1990, global peatland emissions have risen more than 20 per cent.

Four benchmarks for success during the Copenhagen climate negotiations in December have been laid out by Ban Ki-moon, United Nations secretary-general. First, all countries, whether developed or developing, must do all they can to cut emissions from all sources. Second, "a successful deal must strengthen the world’s ability to cope with an already changing climate," he said, stressing that "support for adaptation is not only an ethical imperative; it is a smart investment in a more stable, secure world." Third, funding must be provided to enable poorer nations to move to a low-carbon economy. Finally, there must be an equitable global governance structure. "All countries must have a voice in how resources are deployed and managed. That is how trust will be built."

While Yvo de Boer, the head of the climate treaty secretariat, is cautioning that it is "physically impossible to finalize all the details of a treaty in Copenhagen," nations can and must agree on the political essentials there. de Boer defines the essentials as emissions cuts by the industrialized nations, efforts to be made by developing nations, climate aid and governance. "After Copenhagen we will need a technical process to work out all the details," he continued. A follow-up meeting in early 2010 has been proposed. There are concerns that any further delay will take too much pressure off the negotiations, particularly with regard to the unresolved position of the United States.

Meeting to discuss their position at the at the climate treaty negotiations in Copenhagen in December, African negotiators have declared that they will not accept a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, nor will they accept the merging of the Protocol into a new pact. They are calling for the Kyoto Protocol to be extended to cover a second and further commitment periods.

The African negotiators want see a separate legal instrument stemming from the Bali Action Plan: "a fair, inclusive, effective and equitable new agreement... that will benefit the climate and vulnerable countries and that will be undertaken in the context of poverty eradication, sustainable development and the need for gender equity." Compensation is sought from the industrialized nations, who are held responsible for the climate problem, in the form of new, sustained and scaled-up finance required for adaptation and risk management. Speaking recently at a Nigerian government inter-ministerial conference in Abuja, Peter Tarfa from the Federal Ministry of the Environment said that "developing countries are seeking between US$200 billion and US$400 billion [a year] as compensation."

European Union leaders met in Brussels last week to discuss climate assistance for developing nations. The Union is deeply divided over the matter. The Polish finance minister Jacek Rostowski, for example, regards it as "totally unacceptable that the poor countries of Europe should help the rich countries of Europe to help the poor countries of the world." Germany, heading the largest group, would like to see what commitment to action emerges from China and the United States before reaching a decision. The United Kingdom is prepared to pledge funds right away.

The European Commission has proposed a commitment of between two and 15 billion euros a year."We need to find a solution on financing, the internal burden-sharing," said Cecilia Malmström, Swedish European affairs minister. "We need to send a strong signal to the international negotiations," she continued. In the event, the European Union leaders proposed that the industrialized world as a whole should give developing nations up to 50 billion euros annually by the year 2020, with five to seven billion euros a year from 2010 to 2012 as "fast-start" finance, but failed, once again, to reach agreement on the contribution that the European Union will make.

There are signs that expectations for the critical climate treaty talks in Copenhagen this December are being narrowed to avoid disappointment and discouragement. "There isn’t sufficient time to get the whole thing done," Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, said recently. "But I hope it will go well beyond simply a declaration of principles. The form I would like it to take is the groundwork for a ratifiable agreement next year." There is concern that forcing the pace might result in a treaty that is too weak to be effective or else so tough that it would not be ratified by some countries and could not be enforced.

It is possible that, alongside a high-level political commitment to halt and reverse the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, a new deadline for final agreement will be set for some time in 2010. A key barrier to agreement in Copenhagen is the fact that there will be no commitment to an emissions target by the United States Congress before the end of this year. Without that commitment, the United States negotiators' hands are tied. Key issues yet to be resolved include emissions targets for the industrialized nations, how developing countries will be brought into a global agreement and the longstanding matter of financial support for developing nations. Nevertheless, optimism remains. "Leaders must engage directly to break the impasse," urged Gordon Brown, British prime minister, last week. "I've said I'll go to Copenhagen, and I'm encouraging them to make the same commitment." Todd Stern, climate envoy for the United States, commented that "more progress needs to be made but we think that something can be done."

China and India have agreed to collaborate on renewable power and energy-efficiency projects. They have again rejected limits on their greenhouse gas emissions. It was confirmed that there are no differences between their negotiating positions for the forthcoming climate treaty talks in Copenhagen. "This makes the Group of 77 much stronger," said Yang Fuqian of the WWF. "They see the two big countries standing with them and their voice will be stronger." Josh Carmody at the Asian Development Bank sees the Indian-Chinese accord as a possible building block in a global deal. "If they can form a common position, that's one agreement toward a global agreement," he commented. Others see it as the basis for an alternative to the existing climate treaty process. "They’re trying to gain leverage going into Copenhagen and show the world they have other options if the global talks break down," said Olav Roenningen from Markedskraft, the Norwegian carbon-markets advisory firm.

African nations have met in Ethiopia to discuss their position at the Copenhagen talks. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian prime minister, will lead the delegation in Copenhagen and he has threatened to walk out if African needs are not met. Africa should consider not signing in Copenhagen if their needs are not met, agreed Hawa Sow from WWF. The continent "is facing a real challenge in dealing with climate change," said Gabriel Odima, president of the Africa Center for Peace and Democracy in the United States, "but threatening to walk away from the negotiations is not a wise idea."

The Arctic might become a source of carbon dioxide as climate alters, in contrast to its historic role as a sink, an international team of scientists reports. "In the short term, warming temperatures could expose more arctic carbon to decomposition," commented study leader David McGuire, from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks in the United States. "And with permafrost melting, there will be more available carbon to decompose." Moreover, thawing permafrost could release more methane into the atmosphere.

There is a need for further research as the response of the Arctic to climate change is not well understood. The authors note that global warming may produce longer growing seasons, boosting plant photosynthesis which removes carbon dioxide from the air, but this effect might be overwhelmed if dry conditions limit growth. "If the response of the arctic carbon cycle to climate change results in substantial net releases of greenhouse gases, this could compromise mitigation efforts that we have in mind for controlling the carbon cycle," McGuire concludes, arguing the regional studies are needed to resolve the contribution of the Arctic.

The Brazilian government is considering capping its greenhouse gas emissions at 2005 levels. "We can reach 2020 with levels similar to those of 2005, even with [economic] growth of four per cent annually," said environment minister Carlos Minc. Brazil has recently extended its deforestation target from a 70 per cent reduction in the rate by 2017 to an 80 per cent reduction by 2010. "Brazil is one of the world's largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters. It's time it adopted targets in line with its size and responsibility," said João Talocchi from Greenpeace.

India plans to include the use of natural resources in economic growth accounts by the year 2015, reports environment minister Jairam Ramesh. "I'm sure that in the next two years, more and more economists will focus their time and energies upon social investment accounting or green accounting... so that GDP really becomes not gross domestic product but green domestic product," he said. Alongside increased use of renewable energy and more efficient use of energy, the move is seen as evidence of India's commitment to the international fight against climate change. The United States Congress is considering the imposition of tariffs on goods from countries that do not have emissions targets in order to protect local industries.

The number of hungry people in the world is likely to top one billion this year as a result of the food and economic crises, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). "World leaders have reacted forcefully to the financial and economic crisis and succeeded in mobilizing billions of dollars in a short time period. The same strong action is needed now to combat hunger and poverty," said Jacques Diouf, FAO director-general. "At a time when there are more hungry people in the world than ever before, there is less food aid than we have seen in living memory. We know what is needed to meet urgent hunger needs - we just need the resources and the international commitment to do the job," commented Josette Sheeran, WFP executive director.

The State of Food Insecurity identifies three factors that are making the current financial crisis particularly devastating for poor households in developing countries. First, the crisis is affecting large parts of the world simultaneously, reducing the scope for traditional coping mechanisms such as currency devaluation, borrowing or increased use of official development assistance or migrant remittances. Second, the food crisis has already strained coping strategies so poor families risk falling deeper into destitution and the hunger-poverty trap. Finally, developing countries have become more integrated, both financially and commercially, into the world economy, making them more vulnerable to changes in international markets.

"We already know that marine ecosystems are multi-trillion dollar assets linked to sectors such as tourism, coastal defense, fisheries and water purification services – now it is emerging that they are natural allies against climate change," said Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Blue Carbon, a new report from UNEP, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, estimates that halting losses and catalyzing the recovery of marine ecosystems might contribute to offsetting up to seven per cent of current fossil-fuel emissions and at a fraction of the costs of technologies to capture and store carbon at power stations.

Carbon emissions, equal to half the annual emissions of the global transport sector, are being captured and stored by marine ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes and seagrasses, which represent a "blue carbon sink". "An ecosystem approach to the management of ocean and coastal ecosystems cannot only enhance their natural carbon sink capacity, but also offers a way to safeguard and strengthen food and livelihood security for fisheries-dependent communities," observed Ichiro Nomura of FAO. The report recommends the establishment of a Blue Carbon fund for the maintenance and rehabilitation of key marine ecosystems.

The chief executive officer of Air New Zealand, Rob Fyfe, has lambasted the international community for wasting time debating regulatory frameworks. "These policy discussions and the hand-wringing over agreeing emission reduction targets are interminable and they are distracting us from the far more important focus of taking action. This is simply a travesty," he said. "Whether under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, ICAO [International Civil Aviation Organization] or elsewhere, it's the same procrastination; multiple conferences of many thousands; turgid presentations and inequitable albeit politically acceptable backroom deals determining the shape of unwieldy global agreements at a glacial pace," he continued.

Fyfe was speaking at the Greener Skies conference in Hong Kong. He called on the aviation industry to "operate in the most responsible manner – flying 'fit for mission' equipment, with high load factors, investing in continuous operational improvements and putting our collective efforts towards developing and embracing leading edge technologies that make a difference." In a keynote address, Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific Airways and chair of the International Air Transport Association Board of Governors, called for international aviation emissions to be addressed under a comprehensive global sectoral approach under a future climate regime. "There must be a recognition that international aviation, as a global industry, is best tackled at a global level by a single global sectoral agreement, encompassing all air transport operators," he said. "After all, how can the emissions from an international flight be assigned to one country for measurement, quota and reduction purposes? Which country? The origin? The destination? Those which are overflown?"

Members of the G77 group of developing nations walked out of the Bangkok Climate Change Talks in protest at moves to replace the Kyoto Protocol with a completely new agreement in the post-2012 climate regime. "Do we keep totally separate regimes for the two constituencies, or do we start building what the United States calls a continuum that includes both - that's the big question," said Claire Parker, consultant to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The G77 is extremely concerned that developed countries who are party to the Kyoto Protocol might not agree to new targets for the second commitment period of the Protocol, Alf Wills, spokesman for South Africa, told Reuters. "The G77 rejects the notion and proposal to collapse or 'cut and paste the good parts of the Kyoto Protocol' (one wonders what the bad parts are) into a new single legal instrument under the Convention," he said.

The European Union is concerned that the Kyoto framework does not permit the inclusion of developing nations in a single global agreement. "We can all continue to argue in favour of maintaining Kyoto. We think that's not enough. We need to have a wider participation. We're not convinced we will get this into the Kyoto Protocol as we know it," stated European Commission delegate Karl Falkenberg. "If the United States joined with other countries in the developed world without other major economies [such as India and China], we don't solve the problem," said United States negotiator Jonathan Pershing. The United States came in for criticism over its failure to commit to a tough emissions target for the year 2020. "I think that they are in an uncomfortable position since they cannot put on the table any figures unless the Congress process is clearer," commented Fernando Tudela from Mexico. "They are increasingly identified as a stumbling block for the negotiations and it's up to them to dispel this perception and to show the real leadership we're expecting from them," he continued. The heated debate notwithstanding, Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, remained optimistic. "This is the first time over the past two years that we have seen this kind of constructive focus on how we are actually going to make this thing work," he said.

The global economic crisis provides the world with a "unique window of opportunity" to adopt a path that will limit the rise in global temperature to less than two degrees Celsius, says Faith Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA is predicting that energy-related carbon emissions will fall by three per cent in 2009 compared to 2008, the steepest drop in 40 years. The forecast is from the latest World Energy Outlook, a excerpt from which has been released early as a contribution to December's critical climate treaty negotiations in Copenhagen.

The ETA report argues that the economic downturn could put the global energy system on a trajectory that would stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide-equivalent and limit the increase in global temperature to around two degrees Celsius. To achieve this end, the use of fossil fuels must peak before 2020, with energy-related carbon emissions not more than six per cent higher than they were in 2007. "The message is simple and stark," said IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka. "If the world continues on the basis of today's energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change will be severe. Energy is at the heart of the problem – and so must form the core of the solution."

The Ad Hoc Working Groups on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol and on Long-term Cooperative Action are currently meeting in Bangkok. The meeting will take forward the five necessary elements of a Copenhagen agreement as defined by the recent United Nations Summit on Climate Change. The five elements concern action to help the vulnerable adapt, emissions targets for industrialized nations, supported, nationally-appropriate mitigation actions for developing nations, scaled-up financial and technological resources for the developing world, and an equitable governance structure to manage and deploy that support.

It is hoped that significant progress can be made in resolving issues related to adaptation action, REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and land degradation in developing countries), technology, capacity building and institutional arrangement for finance. Delegates face a considerable task, though, in refining the current negotiating texts. "It is an absolute mess," said Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat. "The translators came to me to say they are unable to translate it [from English] because the text doesn't make any sense." This is the penultimate meeting in the run-up to the critical conference in Copenhagen in December.

Typhoon Ketsana tracked across Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos mid week, having brought the worst flooding in four decades to Manila in the Philippines. Over 80 per cent of the capital city was left under water. "[It] was an extreme event that has strained our response capabilities to the limit. But it is not breaking us," said President Gloria Arroyo. In the aftermath, Philippines' officials were preparing compulsory evacuation plans as Typhoon Parma approached. "We are dealing with a very strong typhoon [and] there is a big possibility that this typhoon will gather more strength," said Nathaniel Cruz, weather bureau chief of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Parma passed over the northern provinces, killing 15 people. Ketsana was responsible for close to 500 deaths over the region as a whole.

Over 180 people are reported dead as a result of the tsunami that struck Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga last week after a local earthquake. Despite considerable efforts to improve systems since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, little warning was available to those in vulnerable coastal villages and resorts. It takes at least 15 minutes to analyze essential data about an earthquake to assess the tsunami risk, says James Goff of the Australian Tsunami Research Centre at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii issued its first alert 18 minutes after the quake. By then, the first wave had smashed into the coasts of Samoa and American Samoa. "People assume that if they have an early-warning system, their problems are solved," comments Goff. "But it's only one of a suite of ways of being aware of what's going on. What's really needed is education about the natural indicators. If you live by the coast and there's a very large earthquake, or if you see the water receding very quickly and going much lower than low tide, you need to move uphill."

"Three quarters of all disasters globally are now climate-related, up from half, just a decade ago, and we can expect worse," Ban Ki-Moon, United Nations secretary-general, told the Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP-9) to the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in Buenos Aires, Argentina. "These disasters are exacerbated by desertification, land degradation and drought," he continued, describing these as "among the most pressing global environmental challenges of our time, threatening to reverse the gains of sustainable development that have emerged in many parts of the world over the past few years."

Scientists at the UNCCD 1st Scientific Conference, held prior to COP-9, called for more coordination in monitoring and assessing land degradation around the world, including the creation of an interdisciplinary scientific advisory body for policy makers. "Science and technology hold the key to coping with the desertification-climate change nexus," said William Dar, head of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, which is based in Andhra Pradesh, India. "With the right combination of holistic policies and sustained global action, path-breaking science can help curb desertification and land degradation, improving the livelihoods of millions of poor people in drylands."

A summit commitment by Chinese president Hu Jintao to slow his nation's rate of emissions growth was widely applauded. "It’s striking that China has come to New York with some real proposals while President Obama’s speech was largely rhetorical," said Jennifer Haverkamp of the Environmental Defense Fund in the United States. "The key question is whether these steps will undermine the position of those in Congress who are using concern about China’s lack of action as a reason not to move forward," she continued. Hu announced that China would reduce carbon intensity by a "notable margin" from 2005 levels by the year 2020. "The world expects us to make a decision in the face of climate change, an issue which bears on mankind’s survival and development," he said.

United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon was pleased with the tone of the meeting. "Today's summit signals a determination of world leaders to address this challenge and reach a substantive deal in Copenhagen," he said. Others were more cautious. "We heard a lot of urgency in the words of the world leaders who spoke in the opening session," said David Waskow from Oxfam International. "What remains to be seen is whether they will be able to translate their language into a fair, ambitious and binding global treaty," he continued. Frank Jotzo, deputy director of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute in Canberra, commented that "the greatest difficulty for Copenhagen right now is United States domestic politics. It may take until well into 2010 for the United States to be able to make an international commitment that is credibly backed by domestic policy."

In the run-up to the United Nations Summit on Climate Change, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) issued a declaration calling for global temperature to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, saying that the international community should ensure that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2015 and fall to 85 per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2050. "Now is the time for action," said Tilman Thomas, prime minister of Grenada and AOSIS chair. "There is no more time left for inaction as our survival depends on 1.5 [degrees Celsius] to stay alive."

Following the United Nations summit, leaders of the Group of 20 (G-20) nations, meeting in Pittsburgh in the United States, agreed to phase out almost US$300 billion in fossil-fuel subsidies in the "medium term." They delayed, however, a decision on how to assist financially poor nations tackle climate change. Finance ministers will report in November on "a range of possible options for climate-change financing." "This is a crisis of leadership. The rich-country G-20 leaders - especially Merkel and Obama - set themselves a deadline for a climate finance proposal, and then slept right through it," said Ben Wikler of Avaaz. "Until the United States, the European Union and Japanese leaders wake up and put together a serious climate finance plan, there will be a 150 billion dollar pothole on the road to Copenhagen," he warned. Jake Schmidt at the Natural Resources Defense Council in the United States said that the move to end fossil-fuel subsidies, while useful, should not be considered a "replacement for the needed public-sector investment to mobilize clean-energy investment in developing countries."

Most of the world's deltas are sinking, threatening the half a billion inhabitants of these regions, according to a new assessment based on satellite data and historical records. A range of human activities are responsible. "This study shows there are a host of human-induced factors that already cause deltas to sink much more rapidly than could be explained by sea level [rise] alone," said study contributor Albert Kettner from the University of Colorado at Boulder in the United States.

The Chao Praya River, flowing through Bangkok, Thailand, has been sinking at a rate of 13-150 mm a year in recent times. Sediment deposition has been drastically reduced as the river has been dammed and diverted and water extracted for irrigation. The Po Delta, in northern Italy sunk by 3.7m over the 20th century as a result of methane extraction. The assessment concludes that global delta flooding could increase by 50 per cent if sea level rises by around 0.5m by the end of the century. "Although humans have largely mastered the everyday behaviour of lowland rivers, they seem less able to deal with the fury of storm surges that can temporarily raise sea level by three to 10 metres," wrote the study's authors write. "It remains alarming how often deltas flood, whether from land or from sea, and the trend seems to be worsening."

World Development Report 2010 calls on governments, researchers and individuals to overcome the worldwide "inertia" that has kept nations dependent on fossil fuel and too slow to solve the climate problem. The World Bank report concludes that the world can fight poverty and address climate change at the same time, but that US$500 billion a year will be needed by 2030 to develop clean energy and cope with natural disasters. Poor nations will bear between 75 and 80 per cent of the cost of floods, increased desertification and other disasters caused by global warming. Nations in Africa and South Asia may lose as much as five per cent of their gross domestic product if temperatures rise two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. "We are particularly good at acting on threats that can be linked to a human face, that present themselves as unexpected, dramatic or and immediate," the report's authors warn. "The slow pace of climate change as well as the delayed, intangible and statistical natures of its risks simply do not move us."

According to British newspaper the Guardian, a rift has developed between Europe and the United States regarding whether or not the Kyoto Protocol architecture regarding national carbon reduction targets should be retained in a post-2012 climate regime. The United States would like a new system of its own devising that would meet with domestic approval, whereas European negotiators wish to retain much of the existing structure. "In Europe we want to build on Kyoto, but the United States proposal would in effect kill it off. If we have to start from scratch then it all takes time. It could be 2015 or 2016 before something is in place, who knows," warned the Guardian's source close to the European negotiating team. United States Kyoto negotiator Stuart Eizenstat commented that "there has been a sea change in United States attitudes and the new president is deeply committed on this issue. But the European Union needs to understand the limitations in the United States. The reality is that is it impossible for my successor to negotiate something in Copenhagen beyond that which Congress will give the administration in domestic cap-and-trade legislation." The latest meeting of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, an initiative launched by the United States, took place in Washington DC September 18-19th in the run-up to the forthcoming G-20 Summit.

Using Africa's agricultural resources to address the climate problem could generate additional income amounting to US$1.5 billion a year, according to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of the World Bank. "It is essential that climate change be viewed as a major development opportunity for Africa given the anticipated increase in the energy requirements as growth accelerates," she said, speaking at the London School of Economics in the United Kingdom. A United Nations study has concluded that, by the year 2030, an estimated 5.5 to 6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year could be mitigated by agriculture, with about 89 per cent achieved by soil carbon sequestration. Okonjo-Iweala noted that, at present, only eight per cent of the continent's hydropower is being exploited and that greater use of the continent's renewable resources would assist in meeting the growth in energy demand.

South Africa industry must make use of its co-generation potential to avoid another power crisis, warns energy consultant Dave Long, formerly a regional manager with paper maker Sappi. Sappi has invested over US$13 million in power generation in South Africa but has yet to sell any power to national utility Eskom despite power shortages. "We have idle plants, we are losing money because we have invested in an opportunity that does not exist," he said. In East Africa, burning waste from sugar and tea processing could replace hydropower production lost as a result of drought. Stephen Karekezi of the African Energy Policy Research Network calculates that it would be possible to meet up to five per cent of current total power from the sugar industry alone. "If you could develop cogen alone, without looking at other renewables... you could deal with much of the power crises in the east African and Horn of Africa countries," he said.

Participants at the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Broadcast Media and Climate Change conference, representing one thousand broadcasters, have agreed to strengthen regional and international collaboration and encourage the production and dissemination of audiovisual content to give a voice to marginalized populations affected by climate change. "This is a watershed moment for the broadcasting industry," said Satinder Bindra, director of communications for the United Nations Environment Programme. "The more allies, talent and creativity that we can garner in the fight against climate change and its dire consequences, the greater the chance of succeeding in tackling the greatest challenge of our generation."

The Paris Declaration on Broadcast Media and Climate Change concludes that increased public understanding of the urgency of climate change is essential to limit negative impacts and avert human suffering. It also underlines that access to relevant information on climate change is vital for human survival and that taking action to combat the effects of climate change would result in significant social, economic and environmental benefits. It urges members of the broadcasting industry to develop and promote standards in environmental management and to set quantifiable targets for a reduction in their own carbon footprint. "Climate change will affect not only us," said Koïchiro Matsuura, UNESCO director, "but future generations to come. It is, therefore, essential that we lay the groundwork for future generations to understand and effectively confront this challenge."

Japan has strengthened its proposed national emissions cut for the year 2020 to a 25 per cent reduction below 1990 levels, the most ambitious target advanced by a major industrialized nation. The outgoing government had proposed an eight per cent reduction. "We can't stop climate change just by setting our own emissions target," said Japan's new prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. "Our nation will call on major countries around the world to set aggressive goals." Connie Hedegaard, Danish minister for climate and energy, commented that "for a long time, everybody has been waiting for everybody else to move in the negotiations. Japan has taken a bold step forward and set an ambitious target. I hope this will inspire other countries to follow suit."

Government delegates from over twenty Asian nations have endorsed the Manila Declaration on Green Industry at a meeting in the Philippines. The Manila Declaration encourages Asian countries to establish an appropriate institutional and policy framework to further the transition to resource-efficient and low-carbon industries. It promotes increased use of renewable energy and energy-efficient processes in the industrial sector, research and development programmes that will lead to green innovation, and investment in and financing of low-carbon and resource-efficient manufacturing industries. The associated Framework of Action calls for the establishment of a communications strategy to enhance awareness towards green industry performance tools and for the development of a network of green industries by setting up an energy management standard. It is envisaged that the Declaration and Framework of Action will contribute to the ongoing climate negotiating process. Philippines' environment secretary Lito Atienza said that "the declaration will make the voice of developing countries louder enough for Western countries to hear during the [climate negotiating] meeting in Copenhagen."

Corporate control of seeds is limiting the coping strategies available to developing country farmers in the face of climate change, according to a new report from researchers in the United Kingdom, China, India, Kenya, Panama and Peru. "Where farming communities have been able to maintain their traditional varieties, they are already using them to cope with the impacts of climate change," says project leader Krystyna Swiderska of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, United Kingdom. "But more commonly, these varieties are being replaced by a smaller range of 'modern' seeds that are heavily promoted by corporations and subsidized by governments. These seeds have less genetic diversity yet need more inputs such as pesticides and fertilizers and more natural resources such as land and water."

The international treaty on the protection of new varieties of plants (UPOV) may protect the profits of powerful private corporations, but it fails to recognize and protect the rights and knowledge of poor farmers, the report concludes. "Western governments and the seed industry want to upgrade the UPOV Convention to provide stricter exclusive rights to commercial plant breeders," comments Swiderska. "This will further undermine the rights of farmers and promote the loss of seed diversity that poor communities depend on for their resilience to changing climatic conditions." Moreover, technologies that restrict customary rights to freely save, use, exchange and sell farm-saved seeds - Genetic Use Restriction Technologies - pose a serious threat to farmers' ability to conserve and adapt their varieties.

Tim Flannery, chair of the Copenhagen Climate Council, rates the chances of a successful outcome to the December climate negotiations, a global agreement, as 50:50. Contributing to the Reuters Climate Change and Alternative Energy Summit, he warned of "full climatic destabilization" in the absence of an international deal. Nevertheless, he is more optimistic than for a number of years, for a number of reasons. "The first is that [United States] President Obama has taken an interest in this issue, and also the Chinese have shown real leadership, so that gives us hope," he said.

In another contribution to the Summit, Martin Rees, president of the British Royal Society, advised that the issue of birth control may have to be tackled if the world's growing population is not to exacerbate the climate problem. "I think population issues need to be higher up the agenda because population beyond 2050 is very uncertain. There should not be any stigma against stronger efforts to give women in Africa more empowerment," he said. He also called for more emphasis on new technologies. "Without new technologies we will never meet the 2050 target," he argued. "Alternative energy, biofuels, genetic modification, fourth generation nuclear power, fusion, battery technology should all be developed with urgency. By throwing more money at problems you can in many cases speed up progress."

Concern about global warming is leading to the requirement that climate forecasts become as common as weather forecasts, participants at the third World Climate Conference, held in Geneva, Switzerland, heard last week. "We're seeing now a convergence between what users are beginning to ask for and the ability of the scientific community to provide something on a scale and in a fashion that is relevant to what the users need," Jane Lubchenco, head of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told the Associated Press. "Climate services is a new concept," said Thomas Karl, director of NOAA's National Climate Data Center. "In the past there wasn't a recognition that the climate community could provide information which you could base decisions on."

A Global Framework for Climate Services was established at the conference. This initiative aims to "enhance climate observations and monitoring, transform that information into sector-specific products and applications, and disseminate those products widely,” said Alexander Bedritsky, World Meteorological Organization president. Conference participants called for enhancement of the Global Climate Observing System and all its components and the World Climate Research Programme, which should be underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate research initiatives. They also emphasized the need to strengthen climate services information systems taking advantage of existing national and international arrangements, climate user interface mechanisms, focusing on building linkages and integrating information between the providers and users of climate services, and capacity building through education, training and strengthened outreach and communication.

The latest World Economic and Social Survey, from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, has called for a "Marshall Plan" to help developing nations tackle climate change. Shifting to clean energy and adapting to climate change would require "a level of international support and solidarity rarely mustered outside a wartime setting," the report concludes. "The ballpark figure... is one per cent of world GDP, something in the order currently of 500 billion to 600 billion dollars annually is what developing countries will need in terms of international support to make this kind of shift sooner rather than later," said author Richard Kozul-Wright.

"Climate change challenges us all to find a new development paradigm that balances economic growth and long-term prosperity with social progress and ecological sustainability," said Noeleen Heyzer, executive secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. "If we don't address the challenges of climate change an increasing number of nations and their peoples will be pushed into poverty - never has there been a greater call for global solidarity," she continued. The funding proposed is some five times greater than previously suggested.

Geoengineering may be needed to head off planetary catastrophe but it should not be considered a "quick fix", according to a new report from the Royal Society in the United Kingdom. "Nothing should divert us from the priority of reducing global carbon dioxide emissions and ensuring that the December meeting in Copenhagen does lead to real progress," said Martin Rees, Royal Society president. "But if such reductions achieve too little too late there will be surely pressure to contemplate a plan B."

Two principal means of geoengineering were considered. First, and more promising, carbon dioxide can be removed from the air by planting trees or it may be possible to extract carbon dioxide artificially on a large-scale. Second, the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface could be managed, by, for example, huge mirrors in space that reflect the sun's heat away from the planet. The report concludes that some geoengineering techniques are technically feasible but cost and safety remain concerns. Others are so costly, risky or uncertain that they should only be considered a last-ditch resort. The chair of the study's review panel, John Shepherd from the University of Southampton, warned that the research "found that some geoengineering techniques could have serious unintended and detrimental effects on many people and ecosystems, yet we are still failing to take the only action that will prevent us from having to rely on them."

Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, has urged the industrialized nations to call his nation's "bluff" and commit to deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. If the richer nations were to adopt the goal of cutting emissions by 40 per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2020, "that’s a game changer,” he said. “It would be very difficult for me, as an Indian minister, not to respond if developed countries accept this proposal. The fat would be in the fire, our bluff would be called.”

The Chinese National People's Congress is considering a draft resolution on climate change that would, according to He Jiankun of the national expert commission on climate change, commit China to "lean forward to work against rampant emissions and, thus, global warming." China will "do its best with utmost sincerity" to push for success at the critical climate negotiations in Copenhagen later this year, Xie Zhendua, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Council, told the legislature.

"You don't shift significant billions of dollars of investment on the basis of what's likely to happen," said Barry Harris of New Zealand dairy exporter Fonterra, commenting on continued uncertainty regarding emissions trading schemes for New Zealand and Australia. "The financial consequences of reacting to the wrong signals are absolutely massive."

While both New Zealand and Australia have trading schemes on the drawing board, the incoming government in New Zealand has shelved existing plans pending a review and the Australian government faces difficulties negotiating legislation through parliament. Harmonization between the two schemes is, nevertheless, under discussion. "We are doing the work to explore options for harmonization," reported Penny Wong, Australian climate minister. "As a matter of principle the schemes are not required to be identical for us to link, but we do need to look at how best to approach."

Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has given his backing to the call for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to be kept below 350 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Both the Alliance of Small Island States and the Least Developed Countries bloc have adopted the 350ppmv target, along with a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius on the rise in global temperature.

"As chairman of the IPCC I cannot take a position because we do not make recommendations," Pachauri told AFP. "But as a human being I am fully supportive of that goal. What is happening, and what is likely to happen, convinces me that the world must be really ambitious and very determined at moving toward a 350 target." The G8 group of industrialized nations have agreed that a threshold of two degrees warming should not be crossed.

In the United States, Democratic senators drafting climate change legislation are proposing that firms such as the Goldman Sachs Group would be barred from a planned carbon market or face trading restrictions. There is concern that speculation may cause excessive price swings in the cap-and-trade system. "The volatility that has existed in the oil market is exactly what we don't want to happen in carbon markets," said Maria Cantwell, a senator from Washington state.

Former Democratic senator Timothy Wirth has criticized the planned legislation as having "gotten out of control." "The Republicans are right - it's a cap-and-tax bill," he said. "That's what it is because they are raising revenue to do all sorts of things, especially to take care of the coal industry, and it makes no sense." He wants the law to focus solely on coal-fired power plants, rather than covering the whole economy. "I'm not critical of cap-and-trade," he continued. "But it has to be used in a targeted and disciplined way."

An El Niño event has begun in the central Pacific and is likely to continue into 2010, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). "Although some of the atmospheric changes associated with this warming have been initially slow to develop into classical El Niño climate patterns, the warming is now well-established enough for scientists to conclude that it is consistent with a basin-wide El Niño event," the agency reported.

"El Niño, which is established right now, is associated with weaker monsoons and also weaker cyclone season in the North Atlantic," commented WMO scientist Rupa Kumar Kolli. "We are already aware that South Asia is under a grip of an intense drought because of the very weak monsoon activity," he continued. Southeast Asian environment ministers met last week to discuss ways of mitigating haze pollution, likely to be aggravated by dry El Niño conditions. "Recognizing the situation will be drier than normal, the ministers now agree that: 'Let us prepare for the worst, do what we can,'" said Yaacob Ibrahim, Singapore environment minister. It was agreed to ban all open burning and to suspend permits for burning in fire-prone areas.

Carbon finance could provide an attractive investment channel for developing countries to use in limiting climate change by slowing forest loss, Andrew Speedy of the Food and Agriculture Organization told a regional forum in Hanoi, Vietnam. "Close to 18 per cent of global emissions stem from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. That is more than the emission from the entire transport sector worldwide," he said. Hua Duc Nhi, Vietnam's deputy minister of agriculture and rural development, said that it was "the right time for countries to create new solutions and finance mechanisms for sustainable forest management in order to help local communities and the whole world,"

"Climate change is to a very large extent about water change," according to Anders Berntell of the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI). "Because it's through water that we will first and foremost experience climate change - too much water, too little water, water in the wrong place at the wrong time." SIWI organizes the annual World Water Week, which was held last week in Stockholm, Sweden. Participants heard calls for governments to take action to adapt to the effects of climate change on water availability.

As the latest round of climate treaty negotiations started in Bonn, Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat, warned that much remained to be resolved before the critical meeting in Copenhagen at the end of the year. "We have a 200-plus-page text riddled with square brackets [where issues are unresolved]," he said. "And it worries me to think how on earth we're going to whittle that down to meaningful language with just five weeks of negotiating time left."

The talks were marred by a dispute between India and the United States and the European Union over the precise status of the recognition by the Major Economies Forum (MEF), which includes India, that global warming should be capped at two degrees Celsius. The United States wants the two degree goal to form the basis of a "shared vision" for a Copenhagen agreement, whereas India considers that this would lock the nation into unacceptable emissions constraints. Shyam Saran, India's special envoy on climate change, commented that the "MEF discussions are to take direction, but it is not negotiation. It is strange that the poverty reduction goal from the declaration was not picked, but the two degrees Celsius goal was mentioned." The United States and other industrialized nations refused to consider changes in the intellectual property regime that might help developing countries access climate-friendly technology. On the positive side, there were signs that agreement could be reached on the role of forestry within a future climate regime. Federica Bietta from the Coalition for Rainforest Nations said that there was widespread support for the three-phase roll out of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) programme through the scaling up of forestry management authorities and measurement mechanisms, the deployment of demonstration forestry protection projects, and access to carbon markets for finance.

The Australian government's proposed carbon trading scheme has been blocked in Senate by a coalition of environmentalists and conservatives. The Green Party wants tougher emissions targets whilst the conservatives do not want any emissions trading scheme. The government will put the plan before the Senate again in three months' time and could call a snap election if it is defeated again. There have been strong calls to end the political dispute. "It is now time to forge an agreement on climate change policy," said Heather Ridout, Australian Industry Group chief executive. "An agreement is needed in the interests of business certainty."

The latest figures indicate that, as a whole, the industrialized nations are planning greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 15 to 21 per cent below 1990 levels by the year 2020, according to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The latest commitment came from New Zealand, with a conditional commitment to cut emissions by 10 to 20 per cent by 2020. WWF heavily criticized New Zealand's position, accusing the government of caving in to industrial lobbies that presented "apocalyptic visions of a crippled New Zealand economy" if greater cuts were attempted. "The Government’s target is a kick in the teeth for the 1.5 million kiwis who took part in Earth Hour and showed the government their willingness to take action on tackling climate change," said Peter Hardstaff, WWF climate change campaigner.

Taiwan experienced the worst flooding for 50 years as Typhoon Morakot submerged entire villages in water and mud from landslides. Fourteen thousand people were airlifted to safety as three metres of rain fell over southern Taiwan. The typhoon is reported to have caused close to US$850 million damage to agriculture and tourism.

There has been anger at the government's response to the disaster, with the president, Ma Ying-jeou, besieged by villagers when visiting a centre for survivors. The administration is accused of moving too slowly to rescue survivors. In turn, Ma criticized the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) for failing to predict the extent of the rains. "Of course, there is always room to improve in terms of typhoon forecasts," responded Shin Tzay-chyn of the CWB, "but attributing damage solely to imprecise typhoon forecasts - the CWB simply cannot bear such a responsibility." The Bureau warned residents in central and southern Taiwan to expect heavy rainfall but it had to keep increasing the rainfall estimates as the typhoon passed across the country.

The seven smallest islands in the Pacific Islands Forum have called for a 45 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by the year 2020, endorsing the position of the Alliance of Small Island States. The nations are worried about the "serious and growing threat posed by climate change to the economic, social, cultural and environmental well-being and security" of their populations. "As you drive along the roads along the coast, you will see coconut trees in the water - that's an indication of the sea level rise," said Tuvalu's prime minister Edward Natapei.

Civil society representatives from the most vulnerable countries (MVC), meeting in Bangladesh, have also called on the industrialized nations to reduce their emissions by 45 per cent by 2020. The Dhaka Declaration on climate change cites the need for at least US$150 billion a year funding from developed nations to avert environmental disasters in the most vulnerable countries. It asks parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to recognize the most vulnerable countries as a collective voice in the climate negotiations. "Only by working together can we ensure the climate deal meets the needs of the one billion people around the world who are least responsible for the climate crisis but who are being hit first and worst by its effects," said Ziaul Hoque Mukta from Oxfam.

China wants the industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent from 1990 levels by the year 2020. "We have all along believed that due to the historical responsibility of the developed nations, they must continue to take the lead with large reductions beyond 2012," said Yu Qingtai, lead climate negotiator. He called on the rich countries to produce concrete plans to finance technology transfers to assist developing nations limit emissions. Yu is "optimistic" that a deal can be struck regarding China's position within any future climate regime. "No one wants more than us to see the peak of China's emissions," he said. "This will not only be in the interests of the Chinese people but for the whole world."

At least one per cent of global GDP (gross domestic product) should be set aside by the rich nations to help developing nations conduct research on climate change, improve flood control, protect their coastlines, create seed banks and take other steps to cope with the severe storms and droughts, argue South Africa government officials. In return, developing nations promise action on climate change but "we do not believe we should have to put together any comprehensive plans until the finances start to flow," said Joanne Yawitch at the South African Department of Environmental Affairs. Rich countries should understand that it is in their interest to provide assistance, according to Hugh Cole of Oxfam. "In a globalized world, you can't have one continent, for example, Africa, getting hammered by climate change without it affecting the rest of the world," he said.

A team of European and American researchers has provided independent evidence that the sea-level rise predictions provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are in the right ballpark. Comparing temperature trends and sea-level fluctuations over the past 22,000 years, the team concludes that a warming of 6.4 degrees Celsius would lead to a sea-level rise of 82cm by the end of the 21st century, compared to the IPCC estimate of 76cm.

The IPCC estimates have been challenged by some analysts who claim that the contribution of glacial meltwater could generate a much larger rise in sea level, perhaps as much as a couple of metres over a 50 year period. "The fact that [our] number is smaller than other numbers does not mean that this is not potentially a massive and very important sea level rise," said team leader Mark Siddall, who is based at Bristol University in the United Kingdom. "Fifty centimetres of rise would be very, very dangerous for Bangladesh, it would be very dangerous for all low-lying areas. And not only that, the 50 centimetres is the global mean. Locally, it could be as high as a metre, perhaps even higher, because water is pushed into different places by the effect of gravity."

The American Meteorological Society has issued a policy statement regarding geoengineering, deliberate manipulation of the climate system to counteract the effects of global warming by, for example, reflecting sunlight back to space. While geoengineering could make a contribution to a comprehensive risk management strategy to slow climate change, the Society concludes, research has yet to establish whether there are large-scale approaches that would produce significant benefits or whether those benefits would substantially outweigh detrimental effects.

The Society makes three recommendations. First, there is a need for enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential for geoengineering the climate system, including research on intended and unintended environmental responses. Second, a coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social implications of geoengineering should be undertaken. Finally, development and analysis of policy options to promote transparency and international cooperation in exploring geoengineering is required. "We can’t escape the need to dramatically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions starting immediately," commented Paul Higgins, who chaired the statement drafting team. "But even our past emissions bring us to uncharted territory and create risks so severe that we must responsibly consider all options."

"We must get serious about adaptation and we must do so now," argued United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in an address to the Mongolian government. "Adaptation is both a practical need and a moral imperative,". Ban met with the Bayansonginot herder community during his visit to Mongolia, spending a night in a ger, a traditional dwelling. "Expanding deserts suffocate livelihoods and a way of life. The degradation of vital pasture lands directly affects Mongolia’s economy and culture. And you are not alone. You are part of the one third of the world’s population - two billion people - who are potential victims of desertification," he told senior government officials.

The Secretary-General outlined a series of practical steps to support the adaptation process, starting with more detailed information on potential climate impacts so that resources can be targeted to best advantage. He noted that in countries such as Bangladesh, Cuba and Vietnam, disaster risk reduction has "proven to be among the most cost-effective investments." Planting of mangrove trees on unprotected coastlines and community education and evacuation plans were relatively inexpensive ways to reduce disaster risk. "Climate resilience, sustainability and low-carbon growth [should] become the foundations of future prosperity" in green development efforts, he concluded.

India's draft climate plan includes a commitment to scale up solar power generation from near zero at present to 20 gigawatts by the year 2020, equivalent to one-eighth of India's current installed power base. A statutory solar authority would be set up, which would make it mandatory for states to buy some solar power. "The aspiration is to ensure large-scale deployment of solar generated power for both grid-connected as well as distributed and decentralized off-grid provision of commercial energy services," according to the policy draft. India should be able to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by about 42 million tons through solar provision. The immediate aim is to provide access to solar-powered lighting to three million households by 2012.

India needs to follow a different development path, avoiding the heavy reliance on fossil fuels typical of the industrialized world, says climate negotiator Dinesh Patnaik from the Ministry of External Affairs. "There are not enough fossil fuels," he commented in an interview with Reuters. "So we have to grow in a more efficient way. Just imagine if we can provide those 500 million people [who do not have access to electricity] with electricity which does not use fossil fuels? What a huge achievement." Assistance will be needed. "All we're asking is that in this endeavour hold our hand while we're growing so that we can achieve our growth and not be derailed by a lack of resources and technology," he continued. Richer nations should also reduce their over-consumption, he argued. "When someone in the United States has to make a sacrifice it goes from a Hummer to a [Ford] Fiesta. For us, it's the difference between having a meal and not eating or a house with electricity and no electricity."

Tuvalu wants all its energy to come from renewable sources by the year 2020. "We look forward to the day when our nation offers an example to all - powered entirely by natural resources such as the sun and the wind," said public utilities minister Kausea Natano. It is estimated that it will cost about US$20 million to generate all Tuvalu's electricity using renewables. The government is working with the non-profit energy consortium, e8, to achieve its aim.

During the first stage of the project, the roof of the capital's football stadium has been covered in solar panels, supplying five per cent of the electricity needed by the city. After 14 months' operation, 17,000 tons of generator fuel shipped from New Zealand has been saved. "There may be other larger solar power installations in the world, but none could be more meaningful to customers than this one," said Takao Shiraishi of the Kansai Electric Power Company, which helped implement the project. "We thank those who are helping Tuvalu reduce its carbon footprint as it will strengthen our voice in upcoming international negotiations. And we look forward to the day when our nation offers an example to all - powered entirely by natural resources such as the sun and the wind," said Natano.

Tibet is experiencing the worst drought in 30 years, with five of the nation's six prefectures affected over the past 12 months. The dry spell has affected 33,627 hectares of cropland, 8313 hectares of forests and 2027 hectares of grassland and has led to the deaths of 13,601 cattle, according to the flood control and drought relief headquarters of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Economic losses have reached 58.76 million yuan. In Lhasa, Xigaze and Shannan, precipitation is reported down by 70 to 80 per cent.

Elsewhere in the region, Bangladesh is coping with a delayed start to the monsoon season. "For weeks there have been no rains in the northern and central districts, the country's main food belt. Tens of millions of farmers could not sow summer rice as their farmlands have dried up," said Ruhul Amin, food planning chief. "If no rain comes in the next couple of weeks, it will be a severe drought," he continued. Power supplies are being diverted to the countryside to irrigate rice crops. "Sowing of rice has been delayed in most parts of the northern region... So we've decided to connect 9470 deep tube wells with free power throughout the region," said agriculture minister Matia Chowdhury.

Fruit and nut crops in California are at risk as milder winters reduce the period of dormancy, disrupting flowering time, a team of American researchers reports. Winter chill times could decrease by as much as 80 per cent below the 1950 baseline by the end of the century. Winter chill had already declined by up to 30 per cent in some parts of the Central Valley, where most fruit and nut production occurs.

"Farmers and consumers need to be prepared for major cultural changes in the tree crops California farmers are growing," warned Minghua Zhang, University of California - Davis. New breeding programmes based on inducing genetic changes or chemical methods for artificially lengthening dormancy times are needed and farmers may need to consider looking for growing areas farther north. "Since orchards often remain in production for decades, it is important that growers now consider whether there will be sufficient winter chill in the future to support the same tree varieties throughout their producing lifetime," she said.

The United Kingdom plans a massive increase in renewable energy use to cut greenhouse gas emissions. It is intended that 30 per cent of the country's electricity generation will be met be renewables by the year 2020 with a further ten per cent from nuclear power and coal-fired plants with carbon capture and storage. These fuel sources are the "trinity of low carbon and the future of energy in Britain," said energy secretary Ed Miliband.

The measures covered by the Low Carbon Transition Plan range from home insulation and renewable power generation to electric cars and high-speed trains, and should create 1.2 million jobs. The overall effect will be to achieve emissions cuts of 34 per cent by 2020 compared with 1990 levels. Every government department will have to meet a carbon budget alongside its financial budget. "Our transition plan is a route map to 2020. It strengthens our energy security, it seeks to be fair in the decisions we make, above all it rises to the moral challenge of climate change," Miliband said.

Climate change presents an imminent threat to Nigeria, according to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Sea-level rise is already leading to coastal and marine erosion and flooding and coral bleaching, the agency reports. "Further increases in drought, flood, windstorms and other extreme climate phenomena will negatively affect water resources through reduced freshwater availability, food security, human health (such as spread of malaria in the arid zones), industrial production and the physical infrastructure base for socio-economic activity, resulting in reduced development," warned NEMA director-general AVM Mohammed Audu-Bida. He advised stakeholders to adopt a proactive approach to managing risk and vulnerability and to jettison old-fashioned reactive strategies.

A US$205 million programme to study and fight coastal erosion in West Africa has been announced by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). The scheme involves UEMOA members Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Togo, as well as Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Mauritania and Sierra Leone. The International Union for Conservation of Nature is working on a study of how to treat coastlines that could act as a template for what happens in west Africa. "This survey will tell us how the sea is advancing over the continent and which areas are most sensitive to coastal erosion. It will also enable us to have a complete photographic map of the coastline of the region," said Malick Diallo, head of the UEMOA water and environment commission. A regional observatory for coastal erosion will be established and urgent action will be taken to protect the western shore of the estuary of Lake Togo, between Togo and Benin.

Expansion of coastal cities is accompanied by a decline in the quality of life of their inhabitants, negating the reasons for urban migration, reports a group of international experts meeting in Oslo, Norway. Coastal protection measures lead to a false sense of security and require increasingly expensive infrastructure, whilst coastal erosion, lack of runoff, nutrient shortage and subsiding deltas result from a failure to implement upstream river management.

Serious implementation of integrated coastal zone management is needed and innovation is essential, the group concludes. There are successful showcases with regard to innovative approaches such as "soft" engineering and managed realignment. Governance must be enabled at all scales from intergovernmental engagement to the individual, personal choices that may counteract the tyranny of "small and short-sighted decisions." The meeting was organized by LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), a core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change.

Leaders of all the Group of Eight (G8) industrialized nations, meeting in Italy, have agreed that they must limit the rise in global temperature to not more than two degrees Celsius. They have also committed to strive to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by the year 2050. The baseline year for these reductions was, however, left deliberately vague - 1990 or more recent years, according to the summit declaration. British prime minister Gordon Brown described the agreement as "the foundations for a Copenhagen deal that is ambitious, fair and effective."

The G8 failed to commit to a target for the year 2020, a more contentious issue. "The policies that they have stated so far are not enough, not sufficient enough," commented United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon on the lack of any mid-term commitment. "This is the science. We must work according to the science. This is politically and morally imperative and a historic responsibility for the leaders for the future of humanity, even for the future of planet Earth." In parallel discussions at the Major Economies Forum (MEF), the major developing nations, led by China and India, refused to accept a draft target of a global emissions reduction of 50 per cent by 2050. The absence of a mid-term commitment by the industrialized nations and lack of follow-up on promises of financial and technical support were cited as the main reasons. The MEF Declaration does, however, commit developing countries to "promptly undertake actions whose projected effects on emissions represent a meaningful deviation from business as usual in the mid-term, in the context of sustainable development, supported by financing, technology, and capacity-building."

Targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions should be based on the number of rich people, the biggest individual emitters, in a country rather than the country's total emissions, according to a team of researchers from the United States and Europe. "You're distributing the task of doing something about emissions reduction based on the proportion of the population in the country that's actually doing the most damage," said co-author Shoibal Chakravarty of the Princeton Environmental Institute in the United States. The approach establishes a uniform cap on emissions that individuals should not exceed. "These numbers strengthen our conviction that industrialized countries will have to take the lead in reducing their emissions, but that the fight to prevent dangerous climate change can only be won if all countries act together," said Ottmar Edenhofer of the Technical University of Berlin in Germany.

A new report from a consortium of research institutes argues that the only climate policies that will work are those that focus directly on improvement in energy efficiency and the decarbonization of energy supply rather than on targets for emissions, the outcome of these processes. Coordinating author Gwyn Prins from the London School of Economics considers that "worthwhile policy builds upon what we know works and upon what is feasible rather than trying to deploy never-before implemented policies through complex institutions requiring a hitherto unprecedented and never achieved degree of global political alignment." The report endorses the Japanese "Mamizu" climate strategy, which relies on achievable and direct goals rather than on indirect initiatives such as trading schemes.

The Arctic Ocean's ice cover has thinned by over 40 per cent since 2004, according to the latest data from the United States National Air and Space Administration (NASA). "Even in years when the overall extent of sea ice remains stable or grows slightly, the thickness and volume of the ice cover is continuing to decline, making the ice more vulnerable to continued shrinkage," commented Ron Kwok from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.

The analysis, conducted by scientists from NASA and the University of Washington in Seattle, made use of data from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to derive the first basin-wide estimate of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean's ice cover. The ice thinned by 0.68 metres over four winters and the total area covered by the thicker, older multi-year ice that has survived one or more summers shrank by 42 per cent. "The near-zero replenishment of the multi-year ice cover, combined with unusual exports of ice out of the Arctic after the summers of 2005 and 2007, have both played significant roles in the loss of Arctic sea ice volume over the ICESat record," Kwok reported.

The draft declaration before the July 8-10th summit of the Group of Eight (G8) leading industrialized nations in Italy calls on the major developing nations to take on actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions "in an indicative range below business as usual," according to Japanese media reports. It is proposed that a public-private green technology fund will be launched to assist developing nations.

The draft document urges all major economies to share the goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050, a wording accepted at last year's G8 summit. There is, however, no reference to a target for the year 2020. It is also reported that the United States will endorse the goal of limiting global warming to no more than two degrees Celsius at the G8 meeting. The summit will be chaired by Barack Obama, United States president. Europeans "want to seize this moment to push as hard as they can on the Americans to get significant... targeted commitments," according to Heather Conley from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC. "They know that this is going to be a very careful walk along the road to Copenhagen in December and they're going to publicly praise and privately push hard," she said.

The World Bank has launched a new programme, Eco² Cities: Ecological Cities as Economic Cities, to help cities in developing countries achieve greater ecological and economic sustainability. "Global urban expansion sets forth before us a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to plan, develop, build and manage cities that are simultaneously more ecologically and economically sustainable," said Katherine Sierra, World Bank vice president for sustainable development. "We have a short time horizon before us. The decisions we make together today, can lock in systemic benefits for current and future generations."

A three-part report presents the programme’s analytical and operational framework, alongside effective methods and tools. The guidance derives from the experiences, challenges and lessons learnt from cities around the world. Best-practice cities such as Curitiba, Singapore, Stockholm and Yokohama provide strong examples of what can be achieved. By increasing resource efficiency while decreasing pollution and unnecessary waste, these cities "have improved the quality of life of their citizens, enhanced their economic competitiveness and resilience, strengthened their fiscal capacity, and created an enduring 'culture' of sustainability," according to Hiroaki Suzuki, the programme's team leader.

An El Niño weather pattern seems almost certain this year, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. "El Niño is a little bit like recession, you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Niño started in May," said David Jones from the Bureau.

"Typically, an El Niño has the potential to disrupt the rainy seasons and cause lower rainfall in India, Australia, Southeast Asia - Philippines and Indonesia - southern Africa and Central America," commented Robert Stefanski of the World Meteorological Organization. "In past El Niño events, droughts have occurred and lowered food production in many of these regions." The prospect of El Niño developing has led to a lowering of the long-range monsoon rainfall forecast, reports India's Ministry of Science and Technology.

The United States will not accept an emissions reduction target of 40 per cent below the 1990 baseline for the year 2020, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested might be necessary to avoid serious climate change. "The 40 per cent below 1990 [levels] is something which in our judgment is not necessary, and not feasible given where we're starting from, so it's not in the cards," warned United States climate envoy Todd Stern. Legislation passed on June 26th by the United States House of Representatives, the American Clean Energy and Security Act, should reduce emissions from sources covered by the Act by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020 and by 83 per cent by mid-century.

Stern was speaking at the latest session of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate in Mexico. The Major Economies Forum consists of nations responsible for 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Its aim is to help generate the political leadership necessary to achieve a successful outcome at the December climate change conference in Copenhagen. There were signs of increasing support at the meeting for Mexico's proposal of a " green fund", with the possibility raised of the inclusion of carbon credits. The draft document tabled at the meeting by the United States and Mexico proposed an "aspirational" global emissions reduction goal of 50 per cent for the year 2050, with developed nations assigned an 80 per cent target. While delegates supported the notion of a long-term goal, there was no agreement on any specific target.

"Preventing strong growth in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) use is an important climate mitigation option the world has now," reports Guus Velders of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The conclusion results from an assessment by an international team of scientists, led by Velders. Because of the projected growth of HFCs, they could represent up to 45 per cent of total global carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 under a scenario that stabilizes carbon dioxide emissions at 450ppm.

HFCs were adopted as a substitute for ozone-depleting chemicals such as the chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs). Greenpeace developed Greenfreeze in the 1990s, one of a number of hydrocarbon-based refrigerant systems that produce less greenhouse gas. The adoption of Greenfreeze in North America has, however, been held up by concerns over flammability. Ben & Jerry's and General Electric are currently seeking approval for its use.

Cell phone users in vulnerable regions of Bangladesh will receive advance warning of natural disasters. "This new initiative will mean that people will get an alert on their phones warning them that they are likely to face flooding or a cyclone," said Syed Ashraf of the Disaster Management Bureau. "So they will then be able to take action like evacuate their homes and seek shelter in assigned places."

Instant messages are to be sent to TeleTalk and Grameenphone subscribers in flood-prone north-central Shirajganj district and cyclone-prone Cox's Bazar. The messages will flash automatically on the phone's screen rather than being stored in message boxes so that they are immediately obvious. The initiative is to be piloted over the next six months and the aim is that the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme will then expand it across the whole country.

Growing seasons throughout Africa will be "hotter than any year in historical experience," according to a study by American researchers. "When we looked at where temperatures are headed, we found that for the majority of Africa's farmers, global warming will rapidly change conditions beyond the range of what occurs anywhere in their country," said Marshall Burke from Stanford University. Senegal, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Sierra Leone were found to be particularly at risk.

"This is not a situation like the failure of the banking system where we can move in after the fact and provide something akin to a bailout," said co-author Cary Fowler of the Global Crop Diversity Trust. "If we wait until it's too hot to grow maize in Chad and Mali, then it will be too late to avoid a disaster that could easily destabilize an entire region and beyond." Nations could anticipate future needs by stockpiling seeds from their neighbours. By mid-century, for example, local varieties of maize grown in Lesotho may no longer be viable as temperatures rise. Varieties from hotter climes, such as grown in Mali today, could be set aside and stockpiled to meet Lesotho's future needs.

Climate change has already had "visible impacts" in the United States and water resources, agriculture, health and coastal areas are particularly vulnerable, according to the latest assessment from the Global Change Research Program. "This report provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now and it's happening in our own backyards and it affects the kind of things people care about," said Jane Lubchenco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to the report, climate change will interact with many other social and environmental stresses, such as pollution, population growth, overuse of resources and urbanization, to create greater impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. Finally, the assessment concludes that future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today. "It tells us why remedial action is needed sooner rather than later," commented White House science adviser John Holdren.

The British government has published its latest assessment of potential climate impacts on the United Kingdom, UK Climate Projections 2009. The report concludes that, in the absence of global action to cut emissions, warmer and wetter winters, hotter and drier summers, increased risk of coastal erosion and more severe weather can be expected. Julia Slingo from the Met Office described the results as the world’s most comprehensive regional climate projections. "For the first time," she said, "businesses and other organizations have the tools to help them make risk-based decisions to adapt to the challenges of our changing climate."

Publication of the report marked the first step towards a five point plan to tackle climate change, the Department of Energy and Climate Change reported. The five points are protecting the public from immediate risk, preparing for the future, limiting the severity of future climate change through a new international climate agreement, building a low carbon United Kingdom and supporting individuals, communities and businesses to play their part. The government's blueprint for a new global climate deal will be published later this month and, in July, a new national strategy for climate and energy intended to meet domestic carbon reduction targets will be released.

"The only thing that they have agreed on in Bonn, is that they fundamentally disagree on all issues," concluded Regine Günther of WWF at the end of the latest round of the climate negotiations. Though there was general disappointment at the slow progress made at the 12-day meeting, Yvo de Boer, who heads the climate treaty secretariat, remained optimistic. "I think that this session has made clear what governments want to see in a Copenhagen agreement. It shows that they are committed to reaching an agreement and this is a big achievement," he said. Even de Boer accepts, though, that it will be "physically impossible" to have a detailed agreement in Copenhagen in December this year. Michael Zammit Cutajar, chair of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, warned that big breakthroughs were likely to happen only in Copenhagen. "This is like the evolutionary process in reverse. The Big Bang comes at the end," he said.

In a significant move, the United States announced that it would not demand that China commits to binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, said Jonathan Pershing, head of the United States delegation, "we're saying that the actions of developing countries should be binding, not the outcomes of those actions." Developing countries seeking to grow their economies and alleviate poverty would be asked to commit to measures such as increasing energy efficiency standards and promoting renewable energy rather than specific emissions targets. Both the United States and the European Union stressed that private finance, through, for example, carbon offsetting, rather than government funding would assist developing nations follow a low-emissions development path.

"Climate change will magnify the uneven distribution of risk, skewing disaster impacts even further toward poor communities in developing countries," according to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Developing countries with big populations, led by China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia, suffer the most fatalities from natural disasters, but "you also have to look at it in relative terms - the proportion of the population at risk," argues the report's lead author, Andrew Maskrey from the United Nations Development Programme. From this vantage, those at risk are mainly small countries, Dominica in the Caribbean, Vanuatu in the Pacific alongside Myanmar and Guatemala. The report "urges a major shift in development thinking by emphasizing resilience and pre-emptive measures," said Ban Ki-moon, United Nations secretary-general.

Millions of people will have to flee their homes as sea-level rise develops and drought becomes more common predicts a new report, In Search of Shelter, from the United Nations University, CARE International and Columbia University. Regions that are particularly vulnerable include island states such as Tuvalu and the Maldives, dry areas such as the Sahel and parts of Mexico and the deltas of Bangladesh, Vietnam and Egypt. "All major estimates project that the trend will rise to tens of millions of migrants in coming years. Within the next few decades, the consequences of climate change for human security efforts could be devastating," the report concludes.

Japan's new emissions target has been met with heavy criticism. The Japanese government intends to reduce emissions 15 per cent below 2005 levels by the year 2020, but this would only represent a two per cent drop beyond its existing Kyoto Protocol commitment. Yvo de Boer, head of the climate treaty secretariat was lost for words when asked about the Japanese announcement. "I think for the first time in two and half years in this job, I don’t know what to say," he responded.

The global web movement Avaaz accused Japanese prime minister Taro Aso of attempting to "claim the mantle of George W Bush, who retired in disgrace after eight years of blocking progress on climate change." According to a recent Avaaz poll, 62 per cent of Japanese voters believe that government isn’t doing enough to combat climate change. "Japan’s target is not nearly enough to stop the effects of global warming," said Naoyuki Yamagishi of WWF Japan. "Japan has failed to step up to its international responsibilities." Aso considers the 2020 target "ambitious." "We are all responsible for stopping climate change," he said. "We must ask the Japanese people to make sacrifices. That is the cost of saving our planet."

Delegates from 182 countries met this week at the Bonn Climate Change Talks to discuss, amongst other things, the draft negotiating texts that will form the basis of any agreement reached in Copenhagen later this year. "The political moment is right to reach an agreement," said Yvo de Boer, who heads the climate treaty secretariat. "There is no doubt in my mind that the Copenhagen climate conference in December is going to lead to a result. If the world has learned anything from the financial crisis, it is that global issues require a global response," he continued. According to Connie Hedegaard, Danish climate and energy minister, agreement on a treaty rests on the richer countries paying for emission control measures in the developing world. "If we do not provide financing then we will not have a deal in Copenhagen," she said. Hedegaard, like others, is concerned about the slow progress of the negotiations.

In Bonn, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) will consider issues related to the goal of a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, enhanced action on adaptation, mitigation and finance, technology and capacity-building. Michael Zammit Cutajar, AWG-LCA chair, noted that the AWG-LCA negotiating text did not prejudge or preclude any particular outcome. "The text is a starting point and now is the time for parties to take position and enrich it," he said. The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Countries under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) will focus on a proposal for amendments to the Kyoto Protocol, including emissions reduction commitments of 37 industrialized countries for the protocol post-2012. "It is important that we complete some of the more solvable issues here in Bonn so that we can then focus on the more difficult ones later on in the negotiations," said AWG-KP chair John Ashe. Other matters to be discussed include how to improve emissions trading, emissions credits, the Kyoto Protocol's project-based mechanisms and options for land-use, land-use change and forestry.

The United Nations General Assembly has passed a resolution recognizing climate change as a threat to security. "We are of the firm view that the adverse impacts of climate change have very real implications for international peace and security," said Nauru ambassador Marlene Moses on behalf of the Pacific Small Island Developing States which introduced the non-binding resolution. The resolution may place the climate issue on the agenda of the influential United Nations Security Council.

Over thirty African ministers have agreed to mainstream climate change adaptation measures into national and regional development plans. The Nairobi Declaration was adopted at the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN). It calls on the international community to provide support for the implementation of climate change programmes while at the same time ensuring sustainable development, with an emphasis on the most vulnerable such as women and children. "It is clear to me that as a continent Africa has needs that managing climate change and the environment have to speak to. I am heartened by the progress made by the negotiators and the political will shown by the presence of the ministers," said Buyelwa Sonjica, AMCEN president and minister of water and environmental affairs in South Africa. "Africa’s environment ministers have today signalled their resolve to be part of the solution to the climate change challenge by forging a unified position within their diversity of economies," commented Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme.

Increasing livestock production may be an attractive option for poor African farmers unable to sustain crop cultivation as climate changes, according to research from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) based in Nairobi and Waen Associates in the United Kingdom. "Livestock... can survive in conditions that are far more severe than what crops can tolerate," said ILRI's Philip Thornton. "Livestock can provide poor households with a buffer against the risk of climate change and allow them to take advantage of the increasing demand for animal products in Africa," he continued.

The researchers estimate that as many as one million square kilometers of marginal farmlands in sub-Saharan Africa could become unfarmable by the year 2050, with staples such as maize, millet and sorghum no longer viable. "The next step is to maybe take a few case study locations and then really look at the household impact, so that we can say something about what kinds of changes these households might be facing and what they may do about it," Thornton said.

Climate change is already causing 300,000 deaths a year, according to a new report, The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, from the Global Humanitarian Forum. By the year 2030, the economic cost of global warming could reach US$600 billion a year. "The world is at a crossroads. We can no longer afford to ignore the human impact of climate change. This is a call to the negotiators to come to the most ambitious agreement ever negotiated or to continue to accept mass starvation, mass sickness and mass migration on an ever growing scale," said Kofi Annan, the Forum's president, as he launched the report.

Meanwhile, in London, participants in the St James's Palace Nobel Laureate Symposium have called on world leaders to ensure that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by the year 2015. Hans Schellnhuber, who heads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said that the conference memorandum represented the work of "probably the biggest concentration of brains on the planet." The memorandum urges industrialized nations to cut emissions by 25 to 40 per cent by 2020 with a global reduction of 50 per cent by 2050, all from 1990 levels.

A new tool to assist "managed relocation" of biological species has been developed by a multi-disciplinary working group. Managed relocation involves human intervention to shift species into areas where they are not currently found as old habitats are lost, for example, due to climate change. It has been a controversial technique, with concerns that current occupants may be overwhelmed by new arrivals, but is now being given serious consideration.

"We have previously been able to say, 'let nature run its course,'" said study co-leader Jessica Hellmann of the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, United States. "But because humans have already changed the world, there is no letting nature run its course anymore. Now, action, like inaction, has potential negative consequences." The new tool will help define managed relocation's risks, trade-offs and costs. Users can assign a score to a proposed relocation based on criteria such as the probability of the relocation's success, potential for harming receiving ecosystems and the social and cultural importance of impacted species, legal implications and costs. "The tool takes advantage of the fact that, although science can't tell us exactly what will happen in the future, it can tell us how likely a favorable result is - useful information for decision makers," commented Nancy Huntly of the United States National Science Foundation, which partly supported the research.

Concrete may absorb more carbon dioxide from the air during its lifetime than previously thought, reducing its hefty carbon footprint. Carbon-based chemical compounds may form in concrete alongside the mineral calcite. "Even though these chemical species may equate to only five per cent of the carbon dioxide by-product from cement production, when summed globally they become significant," said Liv Haselbach of Washington State University in the United States. "Concrete is the most-used building material in the world."

New research has thrown light on the Great Ocean Conveyor, generating a more complex portrait of this critical aspect of the world's heat and carbon balance. Based on field data and computer modelling, it has been shown that much of the southward flow of cold water from the Labrador Sea in the Atlantic section moves not along the deep western boundary current, but along a previously unknown path in the interior of the North Atlantic. "This new path is not constrained by the continental shelf. It’s more diffuse," said Amy Bower from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts, United States. "It’s a swath in the wide-open, turbulent interior of the North Atlantic and much more difficult to access and study."

The first negotiating texts for the critical climate change treaty negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December have been published. The documents bring together proposals put forward by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). "With only 200 days before Copenhagen, time gets tighter but the world is not standing still on climate change," said Yvo de Boer, who leads the UNFCCC Secretariat.

"We have an almost complete list of industrialized nations' pledges to cut emissions after 2012, so governments can see now, more clearly, where they are in comparison to each other, and can build a higher ambition on that basis," de Boer observed. Proposals for a long-term emissions goal include stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at specific levels, a 50 per cent cut by 2050, limiting temperature rises to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, or aiming for a global annual per capita emissions of two metric tons of carbon. "There is a great gulf between the various numbers presented by parties," said John Ashe, Antigua and Barbuda's ambassador to the United Nations, who compiled these proposals. "It won't be possible to please everyone. Everyone will be unhappy with the outcome in Copenhagen, but my hope is that what comes out will be good for the planet."

Some coral reefs are adapting to higher temperatures, rendering the global coral ecosystem less vulnerable to climate change, according to a new study. "Corals are certainly threatened by environmental change, but this research has really sparked the notion that corals may be tougher than we thought," commented Stephen Palumbi, director of the Hopkins Marine Station at Stanford University in the United States.

"The most exciting thing was discovering live, healthy corals on reefs already as hot as the ocean is likely to get 100 years from now," said Palumbi. "How do they do that?" The answer appears to lie in the adoption of heat-resistant algae, which, in a symbiotic relationship, can continue to provide the corals with nourishment as temperatures rise, avoiding the reef death and coral bleaching that occurs when heat-sensitive algae die. "These findings show that, given enough time, many corals can match hotter environments by hosting heat-resistant symbionts," explained Tom Oliver, a researcher at Stanford University. "While hopeful, the work also suggests that modern environments are changing so rapidly that corals may not be able to keep up. It comes down to a calculation of the rates of environmental change versus the rates of adaptation."

An economic and climate modelling study led by the Center for Global Change Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States has concluded that the climate problem could be twice as serious as previously estimated. The analysis made use of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, which combines both economic and physical processes, and, taking account of the various uncertainties, assigned a probability to specific outcomes.

The researchers predict a 90 per cent probability that global temperature will be 3.5 to 7.4 degrees Celsius higher by the end of the present century, based on the assumption that there will be no concerted action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This estimate is higher than previously forecast by the MIT model and greater than the latest projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A combination of economic factors, such as less chance of a low-emissions future, and physical factors, for example, reduced heat transfer to the deep ocean, worsened the climate impact. "Overall, the [various factors] stacked up so they caused more projected global warming," said MIT's Ronald Prinn.

The Manado Ocean Declaration has been agreed at the World Ocean Conference in Indonesia. Participants agreed to seek for long-term conservation, sustainable use and management of marine living resources and coastal habitats. They also agreed to curb pollution of ocean, coastal and land areas and to promote sustainable management of fisheries in accordance with relevant international agreements, endorsing the Large Marine Ecosystem approach that enhances cooperation among countries that share marine ecosystems and resources.

The Declaration also invites parties to the climate treaty to consider how the coastal and ocean dimension could be "appropriately reflected" in their decisions at the critical negotiations in Copenhagen later this year. The Declaration had been weakened during discussions, with provisions for climate adaptation funds and transfer of technology cut back. Nevertheless, conference chair Freddy Numberi, Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister, said that "the Declaration is a good start to putting oceans as a key agenda at the United Nations climate talks in Copenhagen." The Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI), intended to protect the rich resources of the waters of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste, was formally launched at the time of the conference.

A proposal for a global climate change fund advanced by Mexico has been favourably received by one European Union negotiator. "It's not a question of what we like, but of what may work, and the Mexican proposal gives flexibility that may be appreciated by the United States, Japan and by other donors," said Jos Delbeke from the environment directorate of the European Commission.

The fund would receive contributions from all nations, with the scale of each national contribution determined by population, gross domestic product and emissions. It may also receive income from the auction of permits in developed countries and a levy on the disbursement of mitigation funds for adaptation. The European Union and the Latin American nations of the Rio Group have agreed to cooperate ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference in December.

The United States climate bill, put before the House of Representatives by President Barack Obama, looks set to be approved shortly. "We have reached agreement on most key matters," said representative Rick Boucher from Virginia. There has been a number of compromises with the original target for the year 2020 of 20 per cent reduction below 2005 levels weakened to a 17 per cent cut and greater concessions for industry. A costly publicity campaign has been mounted by opponents in the fossil fuel industry in an attempt to kill off the bill.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration has refused to protect the polar bear under the endangered species act. "To see the polar bear habitat melting and an iconic species threatened is a tragedy of the modern age," said interior secretary Ken Salazar, but "the endangered species act is not the best mechanism for cutting down on climate change." "We need a comprehensive energy and climate change strategy that curbs climate change and its impact, including the loss of sea ice," he continued.

There is mounting concern that any agreement reached later this year regarding extension of the climate treaty may be no tougher than the existing Kyoto Protocol. "There's not a lot of ambition around," said Jennifer Morgan from the think-tank E3G, which is based in London, commenting on submissions by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. "The economic downturn is putting a brake on the level of commitment and investment to mitigate climate change," noted Pep Canadell of the Global Carbon Project.

There are, however, signs that China may be moving towards reaching agreement on joining international efforts to combat climate change. "China used to think the developed world is not serious. That's what they were saying in December," said British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband, following talks in Beijing. "But now they know the United States is on the pitch and ready to engage with them. It has made a real difference to what China is saying," he continued.

Following lengthy controversy, the British government has pledged that it will not allow any new coal-fired power stations to be built without a proportion of carbon emissions buried underground. "The era of new unabated coal has come to an end," claimed British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband. The United Kingdom recently became the first nation to commit to a mid-term goal for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, a 34 per cent cut by the year 2020 relative to 1990 levels.

British police appear to have been caught on tape attempting to recruit an informer within climate protest group, Plane Stupid. Two men, claiming to be police officers, allegedly offered Matilda Gifford money, tax-free and in cash, in return for information on the group's activities, following her arrest at an airport protest. She told the British newspaper, the Guardian, that "recording them seemed like the obvious thing to do. I was keen to find out what they had to offer, what they wanted to find out, and feed that back to the group in case other members of Plane Stupid were approached."

The Republic of Mauritius and the Federated States of Micronesia have been honoured with a Climate Protection Award from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. The award recognizes the outstanding contribution of these island nations to climate protection under the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty. Over the past year, national representatives have been instrumental in advocating and building support for the collection and destruction of "banks" of ozone-depleting substances in old equipment.

"Climate change is such a serious threat to small island countries that every effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not a choice, it is a must, particularly when you know your efforts are sure to bring results, as the Montreal Protocol has done for over 20 years," said Sateeaved Seebaluck from the Ministry of Environment of Mauritius. These nations have recently proposed that the Montreal Protocol be amended to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which, it is feared, could otherwise represent one third of total climate emissions by 2040. "It shouldn’t take a prolonged debate to decide that this is a good idea," said Durwood Zaelke from the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, based in Washington DC and Geneva, Switzerland. "We congratulate the island states for leading the way. This is the third year in a row Micronesia and Mauritius have teamed up to strengthen the Montreal Protocol to do more for climate protection."

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that "greenhouse gases contribute to air pollution... The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act." The landmark decision,which follows a Supreme Court ruling in April 2007 that confirmed that greenhouses gases should be regulated as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act, sets in motion a process that could ultimately force states to cut their emissions. The ruling covers not only carbon dioxide but also methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.

Stakeholder input is to be conducted before any new regulations are brought in under the Clean Air Act. The EPA notes, though, that "notwithstanding this required regulatory process, both President Obama and Administrator Jackson have repeatedly indicated their preference for comprehensive legislation to address this issue and create the framework for a clean energy economy." "The science is screaming at us," responded Senator John Kerry, "and it’s time for Congress to act. I applaud the EPA for conducting an open, comprehensive review of these critical environmental issues and look forward to working with my colleagues and the administration to enact a strong response to one of the most serious threats facing our nation and the world."

The Global Climate Coalition (GCC) continued to claim that climate change science was not well-founded, despite advice from its expert advisers during the mid-1990s that the science could not be refuted, according to a report released during a federal lawsuit.

"The contrarian theories raise interesting questions about our total understanding of climate processes, but they do not offer convincing arguments against the conventional model of greenhouse gas emission-induced climate change," the advisers concluded. According to the minutes of a GCC committee meeting, the report, which was never made public, was approved only after the section that countered contrarian arguments was dropped. In fact, the Coalition "didn’t have to win the argument to succeed," George Monbiot, environmental writer, commented, "only to cause as much confusion as possible."

The flow of the world's largest rivers has declined over the past 50 years, according to a new study by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States. The reduction in flow into the Pacific Ocean was equivalent to turning off the Mississippi River (though the flow of that river did, in fact, increase by 22 per cent). "Reduced runoff is increasing the pressure on freshwater resources in much of the world, especially with more demand for water as population increases," reported study author Aiguo Dai from NCAR.

The rate at which China's vegetation is soaking up its carbon emissions has fallen in recent years, reports a team of scientists from Peking University led by Shilong Piao. During the final two decades of the 20th century, increased summer rains, efforts to plant forests, increased vegetation growth resulting from an expansion of shrubland, shifts in crop use and higher bamboo mass offset between 28 and 37 per cent of industrial emissions. However, the offset percentage dropped to 10 to 15 per cent in 2007, largely because of rapid economic growth.

"Without leadership from the G8 countries, an international response to climate change will not happen," Yvo de Boer, head of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, told environment ministers from the G8 group of industrialized nations and the major developing economies, meeting in Syracuse, Italy. "This meeting needs to point the way," he continued. Lisa Jackson, head of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, brought a "message of hope" from President Obama. "The United States government now fully acknowledges the urgency and complexity of climate change challenges," she informed the delegates.

Strengthening goals for 2010 that were set in 2002, the Syracuse Charter commits signatories to ensuring "that the current deep economic crisis does not translate into a reduction in resources for the protection of biodiversity." "Efforts must be redoubled and we must start thinking beyond 2010," said Stavros Dimas, European environment commissioner. The Charter, whose slogan is "Biodiversity is Business," aims to use the environment as a tool for development. "Defending biodiversity can play a key role in the battle against climate change and the reduction of the gap between the world's North and South," commented Stefania Prestigiacomo, Italian environment minister.

Oxfam warns that the number of people affected by climatic disasters could rise by 54 per cent to 375 million people a year by 2015. Humanitarian aid spending is far from prepared to meet the challenge. "The response is often fickle - too little, too late and not good enough," said Oxfam's Barbara Stocking. "The system can barely cope with the current levels of disasters and could be overwhelmed by a substantial increase in numbers of people affected. There must be a fundamental reform of the system."

The Oxfam report, "The Right to Survive, concludes that US$42 billion more each year is needed in humanitarian aid to help meet people’s basic needs and another US$50 billion a year is required to help developing countries adapt to climate change. More flexible aid must be provided on the basis of need - not tied to strategic or political interests, or favour one affected group over another or cherry-pick high profile emergencies. To avoid the most extreme potential impacts of climate change, developing countries must give greater priority to responding to emergencies and reducing vulnerability to them.

Senior New Zealand scientist, Jim Salinger, a pioneering climate researcher and contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has been sacked by his employer, the state-owned National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), for allegedly speaking to the media without prior approval. "New Zealand is on a slippery slope when trying to provide Kiwis with a greater understanding of our climate is a sackable offence," said Jeanette Fitzsimons of the Green Party. "I'm not aware of any other country sacking a Nobel award winner," said John Lancashire from the New Zealand Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Science.

"As scientists we're all a bit eccentric and we all might slightly break protocol, but it's not going to destroy NIWA," Salinger commented. "It's not as though I'm doing bad science, it's not as though I'm not performing and so I'm really astounded." Salinger was given no written warning prior to his dismissal and was left with three and a half hours to clear his office. He had been working as a government scientist for 27 years. The Green Party has asked the Minister for Crown Research Institutes, Wayne Mapp, to call in the board of NIWA and instruct them to investigate the matter. "An investigation is needed into how it came to be that one of New Zealand’s foremost scientists was frog-marched out of his job for what appears to be trivial and petty reasons," said Fitzsimons.

Megadroughts lasting centuries have affected West Africa frequently in the past and future events may be made worse by global warming, warn researchers in the United States. "Clearly, much of West Africa is already on the edge of sustainability, and the situation could become much more dire in the future with increased global warming," said Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona in Tucson. The research was based on analysis of sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi in southern Ghana.

As many as 100,000 people died in the drought that affected the Sahel from the late 1960s to the early 1980s. "What's disconcerting about [the sediment core] record is that it suggests that the most recent drought was relatively minor in the context of the West African drought history," commented Timothy Shanahan from the University of Texas at Austin. "What's really striking about droughts in this area is that they last such a long time," he said. "You have droughts that last 30 to 60 years, and then some that last four times as long." "If the region were to shift into one of these droughts it would be very difficult for people to adapt... we need to develop an adaptation policy," he continued.

The Brazilian government has announced that companies operating fossil fuel-based power plants will have to plant trees to compensate for their carbon emissions. The new requirements will contribute to the goals of the National Climate Change Plan. "It must be remembered that the Environment Ministry is not creating a new cost for the plants," said environment minister Carlos Minc. "This cost has always existed, but it now must be paid by all society."

Preliminary estimates suggest that a 100 MW/h power plant, operating during 25 per cent of the year, would have to plant up to 600 trees. This, though, would only cover a proportion of its emissions. The remaining emissions would have to be covered by investment in clean energy. The Environment Ministry forecasts that, by the year 2017, the power sector will have planted an additional three million trees. The power plants will have to manage the newly planted forest areas sustainably, maintaining responsibility for them for up to ten years.

Apa Sherpa is climbing Mount Everest with a climate conservation message for the world. "This is my 19th climb to the top of the world. During the last 18 ascents, I have seen a measurable difference in the climatic conditions there," he said. "The disastrous impacts of climate change are visible in the Everest region," he continued. "It is a warning to mankind before it reaches a tipping point."

Climbing leader of Eco Everest Expedition 2009, Apa Sherpa is carrying a WWF banner with the inscription "Stop Climate Change - Let the Himalayas Live!" and a metal vase containing Buddhist offerings up to the summit, which he plans to reach in mid-May. The expedition launches WWF's Global Awareness Campaign on Climate Change in the Himalayas "The Himalayas are the youngest and most vulnerable mountains to climate change," observed Anil Manandhar, WWF country representative for Nepal. "However, the world has not paid attention to the plight of the Himalayas and we want the whole of humanity to know that the Himalayas are bearing the brunt of our wrongdoings."

Developing nations were angry that the Bonn Climate Change Talks failed to set a target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions by the industrialized nations. "We're very disappointed at this turn of events," said Yu Qingtai, head of the Chinese delegation. "There is a very consistent lack of interest to engage," he continued. "It's been a tactical two weeks," reported Michael Zammit Cutajar, who set up the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. "In general on the whole question of numbers people are very wary because... that's where the politics comes in."

Observers did report that the overall tone of the meeting was positive, not least due to the arrival of the first delegation from the Obama administration. Progress was made in firming up concepts such as nationally-appropriate mitigation actions in developing countries (introduced in the Bali Action Plan) and the potential role of conservation within the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation ( REDD) process. Many issues remain, however, to be resolved, for example, whether the role of the Convention in technology transfer should be action-based or advisory. The next meeting, at which negotiating texts for Copenhagen must be resolved, will take place in June.

A group of the world's least developed nations (LDCs) has called on the industrialized nations to support the most urgent adaptation actions identified under the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). The cost of implementing all the actions identified in the NAPAs completed to date would exceed US$1.6 billion. "The LDCs are demanding that the rich countries pledge up to US$2 billion funding over the next five years," said Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development. "The poorest and most vulnerable countries have contributed least to climate change and will suffer most from its impacts. The rich countries can and must live up to their words and massively increase their funding to compensate the least developed countries."

Fearful of the economic consequences, nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are uneasy about calls from other developing nations for the richer nations to cut carbon emissions by at least 40 per cent by the year 2020. "Whatever policies will be adopted will add to the uncertainties for the demand for oil," commented Mohammad Al Sabban, adviser to the Ministry for Petroleum and Mineral Resources in Saudi Arabia. "We share the concern for climate change but at the same time we don’t want to be a victim." Abdullah al-Badri, OPEC secretary general, recently claimed that oil was not responsible for climate change. "It is the industrialized countries which are making all this pollution in the world," he said.

An ice bridge that pinned the Antarctic Wilkins Ice Shelf in place has shattered. "It's amazing how the ice has ruptured. Two days ago it was intact," said David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge. "We've waited a long time to see this." The 40 kilometre strip of ice off the Antarctic Peninsula snapped at its narrowest point where it is around 500 metres wide.

The loss of the ice bridge marks the latest stage in the collapse of the Wilkins Ice Shelf. The process began in February when a large iceberg fell away from the shelf's southwestern front leading to disintegration of 405 square kilometres of the shelf interior. "The Wilkins is an example of an event we don't see very often" commented Ted Scambos from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, based in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States. "But it's a key process," he continued, "in being able to predict how sea level will change in the future."

As the latest round of the climate treaty negotiations got underway in Bonn, China, India and other developing nations combined to call on the industrialized nations to make much greater cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. "We believe that by 2020 the [developed nations] should reduce their emissions by at least 40 per cent below 1990 levels," said Chinese delegate Xu Huaqing. To date, the European Union has adopted one of the more stringent targets for 2020, with a commitment to 20 per cent emissions reduction, deepening to 30 per cent if other nations come on board.

Su Wei, head of the Chinese delegation, has identified three essential arrangements relating to technology transfer that must be part of the agreement reached at the Copenhagen summit later this year. "The first is to set up an international mechanism on climate-friendly technology development and transfer, to eliminate barriers hindering technology transfer, so that developing countries can get access to such technologies," he said. Second, there must be an effective financing mechanism to ensure the developed countries provide adequate funds for developing countries in their bid to cut emissions and fight climate change. Finally, there must be an effective supervision mechanism. to monitor technology transfer and funding.

The Maldives intends to become carbon neutral within a decade. "Many politicians' response to the looming catastrophe... beggars belief," said Mohamed Nasheed, president of the Maldives. "Playing a reckless game of chicken with Mother Nature, they prefer to deny, squabble and procrastinate rather than heed the words of those who know best. In a grotesque Faustian pact, we have done a deal with the carbon devil: for untold fossil fuel consumption in our lifetime, we are trading our children's place in an earthly paradise. Today, the Maldives will opt out of that pact."

The carbon-neutral plan includes a new renewable electricity generation and transmission infrastructure with wind turbines, roof-top solar panels, a biomass plant burning coconut husks and battery banks for back-up storage. "We don't want to pretend that this plan is going to be easy to implement," commented Chris Goodall, co-author of the scheme. "There will be hiccups, and electricity supply will occasionally be disrupted. But we think that building a near-zero-carbon Maldives is a realistic challenge. Get it right and we will show the apathetic developed world that action is possible, and at reasonable cost."

Greenpeace has criticized proposals to allow industrialized nations to offset their carbon emissions by replanting tropical forests. "Cheap forest credits sound attractive but a closer examination shows they are a dangerous option that won't save the forests or stop runaway climate change," said Roman Czebiniak from Greenpeace. "Of the many options for forest financing currently on the table, this one ranks as the worst." A major concern is that forest credits would drive down the price of carbon, diverting attention away from reducing emissions at home. It might also reduce direct investment in developing nations.

The airline industry has stressed the importance of the development of a global emissions trading scheme. It fears that a piecemeal, regional approach will hamper its operations. "If we don't see progress at Copenhagen, I think the industry will suffer," said British Airways chief executive Willie Walsh at an aviation industry meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. Some airlines are threatening to divert flight paths away from Europe to avoid complying with the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme, which, from the year 2012, will include aviation emissions. "This will mean more emissions, exactly the opposite to what the scheme is intended to do," said Christoph Franz, head of Swiss International Airlines. "Governments must move beyond punitive economic measures, such as excessive so-called environment taxes, to focus on measures that reduce emissions in a globally-coordinated effort. That was the vision of the wise drafters of the Kyoto Protocol. But governments are a long way from achieving it," said Giovanni Bisignani of the International Air Transport Association.

Yvo de Boer, head of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has accused the European Union (EU) of demanding too much of developing nations in return for financial support. "When European finance ministers talk about developing countries, as a prerequisite for financial support, having to put comprehensive national strategies in place, that goes beyond what was agreed in that fragile process in Bali," he said.

The EU has proposed including developing nations in an expanded emissions trading scheme. This, according to de Boer, would result in "financial resources after the fact, after they have realized the reduction," whereas "what developing countries are looking for is investment capital up front." Barbara Helfferich, EU spokeswoman for the environment, responded that "of course we want developing countries to develop low carbon strategies and plans before we would commit money, but it's not a case of, 'You do this first and then you get the money.' It's in no way tit for tat."

The Chinese province of Xinjiang intends to construct 59 reservoirs to collect glacier water. The twin aims of the ten-year project are to adjust seasonal water levels and to compensate for the longer-term loss of water as the glaciers shrink. There is particular concern about urban water supplies. "At the moment there is plenty of water in the big cities. But it is hard to say how long it will last," said He Yuanqing of the Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute in Lanzhou. "On one hand, global warming is accelerating the melt. But on the other, it is increasing rainfall, so we need a way to store the extra water."

The border between Italy and Switzerland is to be redrawn because glacial melt has shifted key reference points. "In places the conventional border fixed in 1861 followed water courses, and where glaciers have melted these may have changed significantly," said Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society. The melting of the glaciers has been accelerating since the very hot summer of 2003," he reported. "That heatwave caused a lot of changes in the landscape, and many landslides resulted from the melting of the permafrost. For the first time ever the zero-degree altitude went higher than 4,000 metres, and the morphology of many parts of the mountains began to change."

A controversial experiment mounted by Italian and German scientists has "dampened hopes" that fertilizing the Southern Ocean with dissolved iron might limit global warming by taking carbon out of the atmosphere. While growth of tiny phytoplankton was stimulated, these phytoplankton were eaten by crustacean zooplankton and this limited the amount of carbon sequestered.

The phytoplankton biomass doubled in size during the first two weeks of the experiment, taking carbon dioxide out of the ocean water. "However, the increasing grazing pressure of small crustacean zooplankton prevented further growth of the phytoplankton bloom," explained Wajih Naqvi from the National Institute of Oceanography in Dona Paula, Goa, India. Only a modest amount of carbon sank out of the surface layer by the end of the experiment and, hence, the transfer of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean in compensation was minor. The experiment was undertaken by the National Institute of Oceanography and the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany.

The International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, recently held in Copenhagen, heard that the rate of future sea-level rise endorsed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report could have been underestimated. The IPCC considered that global sea level might rise by between 18 and 59cm by the end of the present century if no action were taken to limit climate change, whereas some scientists claim, on the basis of recent data and analyses, that global sea level could rise by a metre or more.

The Copenhagen meeting was attended by over 2,500 scientific delegates. "The huge response from scientists comes from a sense of urgency, but also a sense of frustration," said Katherine Richardson, conference organizer at the University of Copenhagen. The conference statement warns that "the worst-case IPCC scenario projections (or even worse) are being realized" and calls for the tools and economic, technological, behavioural, management approaches that are available for dealing with the climate change challenge to be "vigorously and widely implemented to achieve the societal transformation required to decarbonize economies."

Reforming forest institutions and increasing investments in science and technology are key to the effective management of the world's forests, according to State of the World's Forests 2009, compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The reports notes that the dual challenges of economic turmoil and climate change are bringing the management of the world's forests to the forefront of international concern. "Adapting forestry institutions to rapid changes in the larger environment is a major challenge," comments Jan Heino of FAO’s Forestry Department.

One third of the Amazon's trees could be killed by even a two degrees Celsius rise in global temperature, according to a new study of the long-term effects of climate change on the Amazon rainforest undertaken by climate modelers at the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter. "The impacts of climate change on the Amazon are much worse than we thought. As temperatures rise quickly over the coming century the damage to the forest won't be obvious straight away, but we could be storing up trouble for the future," said Vicky Pope, head of the climate predictions programme at the Hadley Centre. A three degree rise would destroy 75 per cent of the forest over the following century, while a four degree rise would kill 85 per cent. "The forest as we know it would effectively be gone," Pope said.

New data indicate that air pollution has continued to increase over most of the planet in recent years, contradicting the belief that pollution levels have begun to decline in many areas. "Creation of this database is a big step forward for researching long-term changes in air pollution and correlating these with climate change," said Kaicun Wang of the University of Maryland in the United States. "And it is the first time we have gotten global long-term aerosol information over land to go with information already available on aerosol measurements over the world's oceans.

Europe is the only continent over which the data indicate that skies have become clearer since 1970. "Most countries have realized by now that air pollution is a serious health risk," says Wang. "But attempts, such as China's, to regulate air quality have not yet borne fruit." It is believed that the global dimming caused by air pollutants such as sulphate aerosols has offset significantly the warming effect of rising atmospheric greenhouse gases over recent decades.

The falling price of carbon should not lead to concerns about the viability of the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), according to analysts. "Looking at one year is not a fair indication of what is going on. Real expectations should be based on 2012 and beyond," comments Christian Egenhofer at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. The price of an ETS permit dropped from close to 31 euros last July to just over 8 euros in February in response to the current economic crisis. "The credibility of the scheme would suffer if the price was below 8 euros for any length of time. That would call into question the viability of new Clean Development Mechanism projects and have a major political impact globally," said Deutsche Bank.

Lord Turner, chair of the United Kingdom's Committee on Climate Change, has called for consideration of a minimum price for carbon permits so that low prices do not scare off investors. "We have concerns [that] if the carbon price continued at its present level it would not send the signals which are required," Turner said recently. "I'd think, given the fall in the carbon price this year, that's something that should be considered. It would, of course, need to be considered at European level." The European Commission appears unwilling to support the price of carbon. "If you look at the legislation, there is no way the Commission can intervene in the market to support prices or set any kind of floor price," Artur Runge-Metzger, the Commission's chief climate change negotiator, said recently. "That is something we leave to market forces, otherwise we will not have a market."

An increasing number of species are extending their range polewards as the Arctic waters warm, according to researchers from the Arctic Ocean Diversity (ARCOD) project. The snow crab, for example, has crossed the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea for the first time. "This is an example of a general trend we are observing where water is warming further north and making this region more suitable for southerly species," said Rolf Gradinger from the University of Alaska in Fairbanks.

The researchers have also found that smaller species are replacing larger ones in parts of the Arctic. "We are finding two smaller species of plankton. This difference in size is big enough to cause a problem for the breeding populations of birds and whales as they will be forced to eat smaller species that has less energy content," Gradinger warned. The ARCOD project is part of the Census of Marine Life, a ten-year project aiming to chart the diversity, distribution and abundance of ocean life.

Tropical trees have grown larger over the past 40 years and currently take up 20 per cent of fossil-fuel carbon emissions from the atmosphere, an international team of researchers reports. "To get an idea of the value of the sink, the removal of nearly five billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by intact tropical forests, based on realistic prices for a ton of carbon, should be valued at around 13 billion pounds per year," observed co-leader of the study Lee White, who is based in Gabon with the Wildlife Conservation Society.

"We are receiving a free subsidy from nature," says Simon Lewis at the University of Leeds, lead author of the paper. "Tropical forest trees are... substantially buffering the rate of climate change." One possible reason for the trend in tree growth is that the higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be acting like a fertilizer. Lewis warns, though, that "whatever the cause, we cannot rely on this sink forever. Even if we preserve all remaining tropical forest, these trees will not continue getting bigger indefinitely."

"Southwestern Uganda, where temperatures have risen by 0.3 degrees [Celsius] in a decade, is one of the hardest-hit areas in terms of disease outbreaks, especially malaria," reports Philip Gwage of the Ministry of Water and Environment. According to the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) for Uganda, a two-degree Celsius rise in temperature could see parts of the country losing cash crops, including coffee. Cassava and soya would be affected by new pests, despite being staple crops.

"Drought is the single most important and widespread disaster in Uganda," the NAPA report concludes. "It is increasing in frequency and severity, particularly in the semi-arid areas of the cattle corridor. The rural poor, whose livelihoods are dependent on natural resources, are most affected." "Climate change threatens efforts geared towards poverty reduction in an agricultural country like Uganda [where] the majority are peasant farmers relying on rainfall to produce," commented Gorretie Nabanoga of Makerere University in Kampala. "This trend threatens to undo decades of development," she continued, threatening to frustrate poverty eradication programmes and the Millennium Development Goals.

A binding climate change policy that will cap South African greenhouse gas emissions by 2020-2025 will be in place within three years, according to Marthinus van Schalkwyk, minister of environmental affairs and tourism. "If we continue to grow without a carbon constraint, we face the threat of border tax adjustments or trade sanctions from key trading partners and the destruction of thousands of jobs in the high emitting trade exposed sectors," he said at the Climate Change Summit 2009.

"Acting now on climate change presents the best possibility to overcome the challenges of the global economic crisis - through investment in pro-poor job creating and sustainable green growth. If the world community does not take decisive action soon, it is the poorest that will be hardest hit," Kgalema Motlanthe, South African president, told the summit. The bulk of South African emissions are the responsibility of state-owned utility Eskom, which provides most of the country's electricity, 90 per cent from coal, and petrochemical group Sasol, whose Secunda coal-to-liquids plant has been accused of being the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide on the planet. "The government has to put pressure and hold these companies accountable," said Ferrial Adam, commentator and Earthlife researcher.

A global protest against British government plans to build new coal-fired power stations has been launched. Campaigners from more than 40 developing countries have written to energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband, describing the government as a "climate criminal." "Coal power is the most climate-polluting way to generate electricity," the letter says. "New coal power stations in the United Kingdom will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on impoverished communities in the south."

The group is opposing plans to build new power stations without carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities. It also has criticized proposals to offset the carbon generated through the Clean Development Mechanism, which, it says, has "continuously had negative impacts on communities in the global south while failing to cut emissions." Miliband is understood to have called for a review of the plans for new coal-fired power stations. The Climate Change Committee recently called for all coal plants to have CCS technology by the year 2025 to ensure the United Kingdom reaches its target of an 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050.

President Barack Obama has called on the United States Congress to push ahead with a law aimed at cutting carbon emissions. The White House is, however, playing down expectations that climate change legislation will be in place before the crucial climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009. "If we had significant legislation that began to address climate change... whether that's this year or next year, I think both of us would agree that that's a big change that we would welcome," said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs when asked about Obama's view on the legislation's timing.

The Obama administration's economic rescue plan, passed recently, includes US$100 billion to improve the energy efficiency of homes and government buildings. In the latest budget, a further $15 billion a year is committed to the development of wind and solar power and more fuel-efficient cars. "To truly transform our economy, protect our security and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy," Obama told the legislators. "So I ask this Congress to send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America."

The potential exists to control greenhouse gas emissions sufficient to limit global warming to below two degrees Celsius, according to McKinsey & Company. Capturing all the opportunities that exist to limit emissions will, however, present a major challenge, requiring change on a massive scale, strong global cross-sectoral action and commitment and a strong policy framework. The McKinsey analysis, updating an earlier study, is based on assessment of the development of low-carbon technologies, macro-economic trends and understanding of abatement potential in different regions.

Over two hundred abatement opportunities were assessed across ten major sectors and 21 world regions for the period to 2030. By that year, China, for example, could halve the likely level of its emissions while cutting coal to as little as 34 per cent of its power supply from the current 80 per cent. "Making the leap would require a green revolution," said Jonathan Woetzel of McKinsey. "And as one famous communist said, a revolution is not a tea party. But the opportunity, from a technical perspective, is there."

Integrated solutions are the only way to deal effectively with the interconnected food, energy and financial crises, the Intergovernmental Preparatory Meeting of the United Nations (UN) Commission on Sustainable Development concludes. "Such multidimensional challenges did not have purely economic, social or environmental solutions," under secretary-general Sha Zukang said. "Rather, they required integrated solutions combining all three elements within the framework of sustainable development."

The United Nations' management of global treaties and programmes for environmental management has been heavily criticized in an internal investigation by the Joint Inspection Unit. A lack of coordination between the more than 500 treaties and environment-related agreements is cited amongst other deficiencies in governance. One problem resulting in confusion and additional costs is the " fractured bureaucratic focus," with treaties often having their own secretariats, each buried within existing UN institutions. The managerial chaos is increasing as development arms within the UN jump on the environmental bandwagon, building overlapping and conflicting initiatives on environmental protection and sustainable development without clarifying the difference between the two activities. The report criticizes the "lack of a holistic approach to environmental issues and sustainable development" and the "absence of a single strategic planning framework."

Russian policy makers need to prepare for a greater frequency of hazardous events as global warming generates more forest fires, droughts and floods, warns a new report from the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. Over the past 100 years, air temperatures in Russia have increased at a greater rate than the global average. In recent decades, winter snow cover has decreased in Siberia and Chukotka, the volume of water flowing through the major Siberian rivers has increased and the Arctic ice cover has declined steadily.

The report assesses both positive and negative consequences of future trends for a range of economic sectors. Feed and corn crops, for example, could benefit from more favourable temperatures in certain regions, but yields may drop in areas of increased aridity. Scientist Vladimir Kutsov reckons it is impossible to say for certain whether or not Russia will benefit overall from global warming. "Not everything can be measured with money," he said. "Like, say, polar bears. You can't measure the loss of polar bears compared with the possible expansion of the Arctic shelf. It's a very complex question."

The United Nations has urged the leaders of the G20 nations, who meet in London in April, to kick-start a Green New Deal aimed at combating climate change and reviving the global economy on a sustainable basis. "We face the unprecedented reality that climate change may very well be the more important economic development than what happens on Wall Street or the financial markets, or in our industries," said UNEP executive director Achim Steiner as environment ministers met in Nairobi. "The question truly is, can the environment afford to be put on the waiting line, or is it indeed part of the solution?"

"Reviving the world economy is essential, but measures that focus solely on this objective will not achieve lasting success," concludes a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) that defines the Global Green New Deal. "Unless new policy initiatives also address other global challenges - reducing carbon dependency, protecting ecosystems and water resources, alleviating poverty - their impact on averting future crises will be short-lived."

Al Gore, addressing the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), has called on scientists to become more active politically on the climate issue. "Scientists can no longer in good conscience accept this division between the work you do and the civilisation in which you live," he said. "I believe in my heart that we do have the capacity to make this generation one of those generations that changes the course of humankind. The stakes have never been higher."

Gore urged the audience to "become a part of the struggle," a sentiment echoed by AAAS president James McCarthy. "Obama's science team is without equal," said AAAS president McCarthy said, "but these people will need all of our support as this new administration moves aggressively to solve the economic and energy security problems our nation faces, and at the same time assume a new role as an international leader in global efforts to curb anthropogenic climate change."

The United Firefighters Union of Australia (UFU) has called on the Federal Government to take urgent action on climate change to avoid the risk of disasters on the scale of the Victoria fires occurring almost every year. "Given the Federal Government's dismal five per cent greenhouse gas emissions cuts, the science suggests we are well on the way to guaranteeing that somewhere in the country there will be an almost annual repeat of the recent disaster and more frequent extreme weather events," UFU general secretary Peter Marshall wrote in an open letter to prime minister Kevin Rudd.

With the death toll standing at 181, the Victoria fires have been described as Australia's worst natural disaster. Under a high global warming scenario, conditions conducive to widespread fire could occur on a near-annual basis by the middle of the century. Even under a low global warming scenario, catastrophic fires are expected to occur in the region every five to seven years by the year 2020. "Scientists are advising that no matter what we do, a 'low global warming' scenario is almost inevitable, and so we must be making fire plans accordingly," Marshall wrote. Survivors are demanding more effective warning systems. "I'd like to see a better fire system, a better warning system, alarms or big sirens that they do in the bigger towns so that when there is a fire people can hear the siren and know that there's trouble and get out," said Helen Clover from Kinglake.

Mayors from over 350 European cities, including London, Paris and Madrid, have pledged to cut carbon emissions by more than 20 per cent by the year 2020. The agreement goes beyond the current European Union (EU) commitment. Gabor Demszky, mayor of Budapest, reckons the agreement "can actually become the new driving force behind the new European climate policy." Hamburg plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent by 2020.

"Voluntary actions by citizens are crucial, changing our energy behavior, making intelligent investments, adopting smart mobility practices, these are actions that need to be motivated," said EU president José Manuel Barroso. The European Commission has, however, been heavily criticized for withdrawing financial support for the initiative.

A shift in the rainfall distribution may force the Amazonian rainforest to evolve into seasonal forest cover, according to a new analysis of climate model projections. The researchers corrected the tendency of the climate models to underestimate rainfall in the Amazonian region. Previous studies had suggested that a projected substantial decrease in rainfall might lead to replacement by savannah. The latest results, however, indicate that there might still be sufficient rainfall to support a modified forest cover. Forest dieback cannot, however, be excluded.

"Forest cover will help Eastern Amazonia adapt to climate change by helping maintain local rainfall in the dry season, limiting the spread of fires and stopping surface temperatures rising too high. This will help people living in the local towns as well as the forests themselves," commented lead author Yadvinder Malhi from Oxford University. Governments need to manage forests better, he said, but "the fundamental way to minimize the risk of Amazon dieback is to control greenhouse gas emissions globally, particularly from fossil fuel combustion in the developed world and Asia." he said.

Climate change legislation could be introduced in the United States within weeks or months, according to a leading environmental lawmaker. "We are not sitting back and waiting for some magic moment," Barbara Boxer, chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said. "We're ready to go." According to Boxer, climate legislation should set "certain and enforceable" short and long-term emissions targets, ensure state and local entities keep working to address global warming, establish a market-based system that cuts carbon emissions and uses revenues to help consumers make the transition to clean energy and invest in new technology and efficiency measures, and ensure a level global playing field with incentives for polluting countries to give their share to the international effort to curb climate change.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has underlined his nation's reluctance to accept a national cap on carbon emissions. "It's difficult for China to take quantified emission reduction quotas at the Copenhagen conference, because this country is still at an early stage of development," he said. "Europe started its industrialization several hundred years ago, but for China, it has only been dozens of years," he continued. Wen did emphasize that China is committed to the Copenhagen process and to the development of a global green economy. "The Chinese government gives top priority to meeting the challenge of climate change. We have established a national leadership group on tackling climate change and I'm the head of the group."

The Arctic could be affected by more severe storms as global warming develops, threatening ventures made possible by ice retreat. Large increases in the potential for extreme weather events could occur along the entire southern rim of the Arctic Ocean, including the Barents, Bering and Beaufort Seas, according to a new study by scientists in Norway and the United Kingdom.

"The bad news is that as the sea ice retreats you open up a lot of new areas to this kind of extreme weather," said Erik Kolstad of the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Change in, Bergen, Norway. There might be less ice and more storms, for example, in the eastern Barents Sea where Gazprom aims to develop the Shtokman gas field. Companies needed to take account of the risks associated with worsening weather, especially at times of year with least sea ice, advises Kolstad. To the south, conditions may improve as storm tracks shift polewards.

The climate problem could be limited by sinking bales of crop residue into the deep ocean, argues Stuart Strand of the University of Washington in the United States. Bales of stalks and other waste would be transported to ports where they would be barged to where the ocean is 1,500 meters deep, weighted with rock and sunk.

"The ocean waters below 1,500 meters do not mix significantly with the upper waters," says Strand. "In the deep ocean it is cold, oxygen is limited and there are few marine organisms that can break down crop residue. That means what is put there will stay there for thousands of years." Dropping the bales off river mouths could reduce the risk of adverse effects on local ocean ecology as the bales would be swiftly buried in silt.

2009 is the year of climate change, according to Yvo de Boer, head of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Speaking at the Palace of Westminster in London, de Boer said that "it has become abundantly clear that climate change needs urgent action." "They say that to achieve great things," he continued, "you need two things: a plan and not quite enough time. One might argue that this bodes well for the climate change negotiations. The Bali Road Map is a good plan and the clock is certainly ticking down to Copenhagen."

de Boer identified four political essentials that must be in place if the Copenhagen negotiations in December 2009 are to result in a strong agreed outcome. First, there is a need for clarity on quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives of the industrialized countries. Second, there is a need for clarity on nationally-appropriate mitigation actions of developing countries. Third, clarity is needed with regard to how financial and technological support both for mitigation and, crucially, for adaptation will be generated. Finally, there is a need for clarity on the institutional framework that will deliver support for mitigation and adaptation.

Ban Ki-moon, United Nations secretary-general, speaking in Madrid, has called on rich nations to do more to ensure that the current economic crisis does not add to the already intolerable one billion people going hungry in the world. "Continuing hunger is a deep stain on our world. The time has come to remove it forever. We have the wealth and know-how to do so," he said. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, investment of US$30 billion a year in infrastructure and agricultural production could eliminate the root causes of hunger by the year 2025.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has warned that 175 million children could soon be affected by climate-related disasters. UNICEF's humanitarian funding appeal for emergencies had risen by 17 per cent over the past year, largely as a result of droughts and conflicts in eastern and southern Africa. About half of its 2009 fund would be devoted to five emergencies in Africa, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Describing many of the places UNICEF was targeting as "silent or forgotten emergencies," executive director Ann Veneman observed that "women and children are dying every day due to disease, poverty and hunger, but sadly their deaths go largely unnoticed."

The European Union (EU) has proposed that all but the poorest developing countries should cut greenhouse gas emissions by 15 to 30 per cent below "business-as-usual" levels by the year 2020. Richer nations would have to help finance the efforts of the developing nations. "Without a credible financing package it is clear there will be no deal in Copenhagen," said EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas. The EU blueprint for the international climate negotiations calls for developed countries to cut their emissions to 30 per cent below 1990 levels.

The blueprint was immediately criticized for its lack of a concrete commitment to support developing nations. "The commission has come up with a decent blueprint but has shown it is unable to put its euros where its mouth is and support credible amounts of aid to prevent a global climate catastrophe," said Greenpeace EU climate and energy policy director Joris den Blanken. Bilateral discussions with the Obama administration in the United States are underway and there will also be meetings with, amongst others, China, India, Japan and Mexico.

A review of satellite and weather records for Antarctica has shown that the average temperature of the continent has risen by 0.12 degrees Celsius a decade since the 1950s. The warming has been most marked over West Antarctica (and not the Antarctic Peninsula as previously thought). East Antarctica has also warmed over the overall period, although at a slower rate than the west of the continent. This finding contradicts the belief that this region had cooled in recent decades.

"The sense of 'Oh, it's cooling in East Antarctica,' is based essentially on the 1970-2000 period," lead author Eric Steig of the University of Washington, Seattle, in the United States explained, "and it's warmed since then - although we don't have a lot of data for the most recent period - and it definitely warmed prior to the 1970s." Autumnal cooling over East Antarctica has been linked to the ozone hole. "The hole could be eliminated by the middle of this century. If that happens, all of Antarctica could begin warming on a par with the rest of the world," Steig warned. The assessment rested on the interpolation of data over large areas of the continent and this has lead to some criticism. "This looks like a pretty good analysis, but I have to say I remain somewhat sceptical," commented Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States. "It is hard to make data where none exist."

The "glaring neglect" of the energy needs of the poor is holding back efforts to combat poverty, Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, argued at a recent seminar in New Delhi. He believes that giving energy to the poor should have been a Millennium Development Goal. For 1.6 billion people across the planet, a lack of electricity limits their health and education and ability to work.

"As a result of the insistence by some country governments, and in fact particularly just one country government, the whole sector of energy was dropped from the Millennium Development Goals," Pachauri said. "Without the provision of adequate and appropriate supply of energy... we would be falling far short of what is desired and what we need to achieve in eliminating poverty across rural areas across the world," he continued.

Simple changes in grazing practices could remove millions of tonnes of carbon a year from the atmosphere, argues Andreas Wilkes of the World Agroforestry Centre in Beijing. Replanting one or more different plant species or sealing off portions of grassland can boost soil carbon content. "It depends on what the problems causing or preventing proper management are," he told Reuters. "In some places, it will be there are too many animals, so you simply reduce their number. If the soil has already begun to degrade, then maybe planting grasses is the best option... It's a matter of education and often also supporting conditions, such as policies. None of it is rocket science," he continued.

British researchers reckon that growing appropriate crops could cool the climate by reflecting incoming solar heat back to space, thereby offsetting global warming. Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University reports that, "by choosing from among current crop varieties, our best estimate for how much reflectivity might be increased leads us to predict that summer-time temperatures could be reduced by more than one degree Celsius throughout much of central North America and mid-latitude Eurasia. Ultimately, further regional cooling of the climate could be made through selective breeding or genetic modification to optimize crop plant albedo."

Ending carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 will be necessary to avoid "catastrophic disruption to the world's climate," according to the latest annual review of the state of the global environment from the Worldwatch Institute. State of the World 2009 lists ten challenges that must be adopted in any successful response to the climate problem: thinking long-term; innovation; population; changing lifestyles; healing land; strong institutions; the equity imperative; economic stability; political stability; and mobilizing for change.

"We're privileged to live at a moment in history when we can still avert a climate catastrophe that would leave the planet hostile to human development and well-being," said Robert Engelman, Worldwatch vice president. "But there's not much time left," he continued. "Sealing the deal to save the global climate will require mass public support and world-wide political will to shift to renewable energy, new ways of living, and a human scale that matches the atmosphere's limits."

An Indo-German geo-engineering experiment underway in the South Atlantic Ocean has been suspended following a German environment ministry request that the German research ministry "immediately halt" the trial. The experiment would have involved the discharge of six tonnes of iron sulphate into the ocean to determine effects on phytoplankton. It is believed that iron fertilization on a large scale could cause explosive phytoplankton growth, resulting in a greater uptake of carbon dioxide and limiting the rise in atmospheric carbon concentrations.

There is concern that the release of iron sulphate could trigger algal blooms and de-oxygenate large areas of ocean. It may also increase ocean acidity. The experiment "destroys Germany's credibility and its vanguard role in protecting biodiversity," says environment minister Sigmar Gabriel. Alfred Wegener Institute, based in Bremerhaven, said that the experiment was in accordance with the provisions of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the London Convention on the Prevention of Marine_Pollution, which regulates ocean fertilization schemes.

Half the world's population may face serious food shortages by the end of this century, according to a new study. "The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge, and that doesn't take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures," reports lead author David Battisti from the University of Washington in the United States. Combining observational data with climate model predictions, the analysts concluded that there is a greater than 90 per cent chance that, by the year 2100, the lowest growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will be higher than any recorded there to date.

Collaborator Rosamond Naylor at Stanford University's Program on Food Security and the Environment concludes that "this is a compelling reason for us to invest in adaptation." "It will take decades to develop new food crop varieties that can better withstand a warmer climate," she warns. She says that we also need to be re-thinking agricultural system as a whole, "not only thinking about new varieties but also recognizing that many people will just move out of agriculture, and even move from the lands where they live now." "You can let it happen and painfully adapt, or you can plan for it," comments Battisti. "You also could mitigate it and not let it happen in the first place, but we're not doing a very good job of that."

The Australian Defence Force is concerned that "environmental stress, caused by both climate change and a range of other factors, will act as a threat multiplier in fragile states around the world, increasing the chances of state failure." As a result, there may be a greater need for military involvement in stabilization, reconstruction and disaster relief.

The report concludes that it is unlikely that climate change will increase the risk of major conflict. The one exception is the "remote possibility" of conflict in the event that disputes over commercial resources in an ice-free Arctic are not resolved peacefully. The assessment was completed in December 2007, but has only just been made public under freedom of information laws.

A modification of conventional emissions trading schemes has been proposed by economist Brian Murray, at Duke University in the United States, and his collaborators. "It may well to turn out to be the kind of proposal that the new White House and the new Congress wind up converging on," commented Robert N Stavins at Harvard University.

To control the cost of emissions reduction, under the proposed hybrid cap-and-trade scheme, the government would hold back a proportion of carbon permits in order to enforce a ceiling price. By selling them at a predetermined price, Stavins said, "they will keep the price of allowances in the market from ever going above that level, thereby eliminating the upside cost uncertainty that has been of great concern to private industry."

Ethanol use causes the most damage to climate, land and wildlife in a recent study of large-scale energy solutions to global warming, air pollution and energy security. Eleven different energy sources were compared powering new-technology vehicles run on batteries, hydrogen fuel cells or ethanol. Wind power as a source of electricity for battery vehicles performed best, coming first in seven categories, "including the most important - mortality and climate damage reduction," said author Mark Jacobson from Stanford University in the United States.

Ethanol, derived from corn and cellulose, proved the least favourable option. "The biofuel options provide no certain benefit and result in significant negative impacts," Jacobson concludes in his report. This finding has, however, been criticized. For example, Magdi Tawfik Abdel Hamid at the National Research Centre in Cairo reckons that "including biofuel in the list of the worst energy options is not scientifically justified. Producing biofuel using seaweed in developing countries could be considered as a cheap, environmentally-friendly source for energy that doesn't endanger food security."

2008 is likely to be recorded amongst the top ten warmest years worldwide but will be cooler than recent years, report scientists from the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) and University of East Anglia (UEA). Phil Jones, director of UEA's Climatic Research Unit noted that the fact that 2008 is likely to have been cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that "global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming." Global temperature over the period 2001-2007 was 0.21 degrees Celsius warmer than the corresponding value for the period 1991-2000.

The current year, 2009, is set to become one of the five warmest years on record despite widespread cooling in the Pacific associated with the La Niña phenomenon according to a UKMO forecast. "Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Niña has given way to a weaker La Niña. Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Niño develops," said Chris Folland from the UKMO's Hadley Centre. In the longer-term, a UKMO forecast in 2007 predicted that over half the years to 2014 would exceed the warmest year currently on record, 1998.

The United States faces the possibility of abrupt climate change during the present century with the potential for substantial disruption to human society, according to a new assessment led by the United States Geological Survey. The report highlights rapid and sustained loss of Arctic sea ice during the early autumn, a decrease in the poleward flow of warm water in the Atlantic Ocean and an increase in the pace of methane emissions. While an abrupt change in sea level is considered possible, predictions are highly uncertain.

There is also a risk that the southwestern United States may have entered a prolonged period of increased drought. "Our report finds that drying is likely to extend poleward into the American West, increasing the likelihood of severe and persistent drought there in the future," said Peter Clark of Oregon State University. "If the models are accurate, it appears this has already begun. The possibility that the Southwest may be entering a permanent drought state is not yet widely appreciated," he continued.

Air New Zealand has flown a test flight powered by second-generation biofuel. One engine was powered by a 50:50 blend of synthetic fuel made from jatropha oil and standard jet fuel. "We undertook a range of tests on the ground and in flight with the jatropha biofuel performing well through both the fuel system and engine," said chief pilot Dave Morgan.

A Continental Airlines test flight on January 7th will power one engine with a blend of conventional fuel and a mix of biofuel from algae and jatropha. "This flight represents another step in Continental's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and identifying sustainable, long-term fuel solutions for the aviation industry," said chairman and chief executive officer Larry Kellner. The International Air Transport Association aims for its members to use 10 per cent alternative fuels by 2017. Its long-term goal is for airlines to fly carbon-free in 50 years time using technologies such as fuel cells and solar energy.

2008 is likely to be recorded amongst the top ten warmest years worldwide but will be cooler than recent years, report scientists from the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) and University of East Anglia (UEA). Phil Jones, director of UEA's Climatic Research Unit noted that the fact that 2008 is likely to have been cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that "global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming." Global temperature over the period 2001-2007 was 0.21 degrees Celsius warmer than the corresponding value for the period 1991-2000.

The current year, 2009, is set to become one of the five warmest years on record despite widespread cooling in the Pacific associated with the La Niña phenomenon according to a UKMO forecast. "Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Niña has given way to a weaker La Niña. Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Niño develops," said Chris Folland from the UKMO's Hadley Centre. In the longer-term, a UKMO forecast in 2007 predicted that over half the years to 2014 would exceed the warmest year currently on record, 1998.

The United States faces the possibility of abrupt climate change during the present century with the potential for substantial disruption to human society, according to a new assessment led by the United States Geological Survey. The report highlights rapid and sustained loss of Arctic sea ice during the early autumn, a decrease in the poleward flow of warm water in the Atlantic Ocean and an increase in the pace of methane emissions. While an abrupt change in sea level is considered possible, predictions are highly uncertain.

There is also a risk that the southwestern United States may have entered a prolonged period of increased drought. "Our report finds that drying is likely to extend poleward into the American West, increasing the likelihood of severe and persistent drought there in the future," said Peter Clark of Oregon State University. "If the models are accurate, it appears this has already begun. The possibility that the Southwest may be entering a permanent drought state is not yet widely appreciated," he continued.

Air New Zealand has flown a test flight powered by second-generation biofuel. One engine was powered by a 50:50 blend of synthetic fuel made from jatropha oil and standard jet fuel. "We undertook a range of tests on the ground and in flight with the jatropha biofuel performing well through both the fuel system and engine," said chief pilot Dave Morgan.

A Continental Airlines test flight on January 7th will power one engine with a blend of conventional fuel and a mix of biofuel from algae and jatropha. "This flight represents another step in Continental's commitment to reducing carbon emissions and identifying sustainable, long-term fuel solutions for the aviation industry," said chairman and chief executive officer Larry Kellner. The International Air Transport Association aims for its members to use 10 per cent alternative fuels by 2017. Its long-term goal is for airlines to fly carbon-free in 50 years time using technologies such as fuel cells and solar energy.

Barack Obama, United States president-elect, has appointed Harvard physicist John Holdren as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. British government adviser David King described the appointment as superb. "Holdren is a top-rate scientist and his position on climate change is as clear as you could get. This is a signal from Barack Obama that he means business when it comes to dealing with global warming," he said. Holdren considers that "there is already widespread harm... occurring from climate change. This is not just a problem for our children and our grandchildren."

Carol M Browner, former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, has been appointed presidential assistant for energy and climate change and this too is seen as a sign of Obama's commitment to action on the environment. "Time and time again, when the nation has set a new environmental standard, the naysayers have warned it will cost too much," Browner commented. "But, once we have set those standards, American ingenuity and innovation have found a solution at a far lower cost than predicted," she continued. Steven Chu, currently director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, will head the Department of Energy. Chu has long advocated the development of technologies to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

While initial spending to limit climate change may have to be high, the return on later investments will be much greater. Concern that costs may start low then soar are unfounded, according to a new study. "It gets easier once the world gets going," said Michiel Schaeffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. The study concludes that, with average annual global investments of two per cent of gross domestic product over the rest of the 21st century, there was a 90 per cent chance of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius above 19th century levels.

A recent analysis concludes that few developing countries will be able to afford climate-friendly technologies. "There is simply no evidence that developing countries will somehow become wealthier and be in a position to install more environmentally-friendly technologies," reported Patricia Romero Lankao, sociologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States. "We always knew that reducing greenhouse gas emissions was going to be a challenge, but now it looks like we underestimated the magnitude of this problem." The study found that the economic disparity between the industrialized world and most developing nations had increased since 1960 and that, if present trends continue, it would continue to grow for at least the next 20 years.

"CDM and the carbon markets as a whole are one of the great success stories of international co-operative action on climate change," said Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme executive director, as the latest annual report on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was released. The number of CDM projects in Africa has risen from two, in 2004, to 87, though there remains considerable scope for growth. South Africa accounts for a large proportion of the total, with 30 projects either registered or in the pipeline.

It is accepted that the CDM requires improvement. There are concerns about the reality of the greenhouse gas reductions associated with CDM projects. Bureaucratic delays continue to slow down project development and deployment. Another challenge facing the CDM is to surmount problems holding back projects in areas such as the building sector. Most CDM projects involve renewable energy, 2,659 to date, whereas only 14 projects have dealt with energy efficiency in buildings. It has been proposed that, in future, CDM credits would only be validated if a sector-wide emissions reduction takes place. "The CDM of the Copenhagen agreement will be very different from the CDM of the current state, especially for major emerging economies," said Jake Schmidt at the Natural Resources Defense Council in the United States.