Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary

Climate modellers regularly call for downscaling to help provide finer resolution of projected climate variables in order to model impacts with less uncertainty. For adaptation the need is for 'upscaling' to cumulate and integrate the fragmentary knowledge from myriad local studies. Until we can upscale adaptation, we will have no adequate measure of what adaptation could really do economy-wide to reduce impacts and vulnerability. Such measures would greatly strengthen the case for the serious incorporation of adaptation into the post-2012 regime.

The Stern Review of climate change economics suffers from this deficiency of adaptation models and economy-wide measures. It provides one scenario of what could follow from a failure to restrain greenhouse gas emissions. But the consequences described are largely gross impacts and not impacts net of adaptation. The review provides detailed economic analysis of the costs of ‘business as usual’ and only subsequently goes on to offer a very lukewarm endorsement of adaptation.

Adaptation is described by Stern as crucial, especially in developing countries, but "it cannot solve the problem by itself" (but nor, of course, can mitigation) and "there are limits to what it can achieve" (so also with mitigation). Adaptation costs are discussed primarily to show that they would rise rapidly without mitigation, not to show the need for adaptation now.

Stern also states that "adaptation is complex and many constraints have to be overcome", and "even with an appropriate policy framework, adaptation will be constrained both by uncertainty and technical limits." Hello! Whereas mitigation is simple and straightforward with no technical limits?

Describing worst case scenarios to inform the policy process about the extreme consequences of inaction is legitimate, but less so if it fails to consider human ingenuity. It is true that there is unequal access to modern capital-intensive and technology-dependent adaptation. But this can be changed.

It is also true that there are few studies of the economy-wide benefits and costs of adaptation, and that these provide very outdated estimates of impacts reduction based on Olympian top-down ‘analysis’ and heroic assumptions, but Stern fails to give adaptation the big helping hand it needs.

More serious efforts are needed to model adaptation, including the upscaling of local knowledge. But modelling adaptation is not an end in itself. It is needed quickly to inform a new Stern-like Review devoted to adaptation.

If adaptation is to be taken seriously in the policy-relevant economic literature, it will have to be quantitatively modelled at national, sectoral and global levels. A start might best be made through a sectoral approach.

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Bright Ideas

General Electric plans to cut solar installation costs by half

Project 90 by 2030 supports South African school children and managers reduce their carbon footprint through its Club programme

Bath & North East Somerset Council in the United Kingdom has installed smart LED carriageway lighting that automatically adjusts to light and traffic levels

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the American Public Gardens Association are mounting an educational exhibit at Longwood Gardens showing the link between temperature and planting zones

The energy-efficient Crowne Plaza Copenhagen Towers hotel is powered by renewable and sustainable sources, including integrated solar photovoltaics and guest-powered bicycles

El Hierro, one of the Canary Islands, plans to generate 80 per cent of its energy from renewable sources

The green roof on the Remarkables Primary School in New Zealand reduces stormwater runoff, provides insulation and doubles as an outdoor classroom

The Weather Info for All project aims to roll out up to five thousand automatic weather observation stations throughout Africa

SolSource turns its own waste heat into electricity or stores it in thermal fabrics, harnessing the sun's energy for cooking and electricity for low-income families

The Wave House uses vegetation for its architectural and environmental qualities, and especially in terms of thermal insulation

The Mbale compost-processing plant in Uganda produces cheaper fertilizer and reduces greenhouse gas emissions

At Casa Grande, Frito-Lay has reduced energy consumption by nearly a fifth since 2006 by, amongst other things, installing a heat recovery system to preheat cooking oil

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Updated: May 15th 2015