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Ten thousand American scientists have signed a
statement protesting political interference in the scientific
process. Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists, the
statement has the backing of 52 Nobel Laureates. "It's
very difficult to make good public policy without good science,
and it's even harder to make good public policy with bad
science," said Peter
Gleick of the Pacific
Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and
Security. "In the last several years, we've seen
an increase in both the misuse of science and I would say an
increase of bad science in a number of very important issues;
for example, in global climate change, international peace and
security, and water resources."
The Union of Concerned Scientists has compiled an
'A to Z' guide that documents recent allegations of
censorship and political interference in federal science. In
the
area of climate change, the guide cites a case uncovered in
2003 when the
Bush administration tried to make a series of changes to a
draft report from the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA). The EPA report stated that human activity is
contributing significantly to climate change. According to an
internal EPA memo, White House officials demanded so many
qualifying words such as "potentially" and
"may" that the result would have been to insert
"uncertainty... where there is essentially none."
"It is likely that some increase in
tropical cyclone intensity will occur if the climate continues
to warm" is the consensus view of an international group
of 125 experts. The group also described an "increase in
precipitation associated with [tropical cyclone] systems"
in a warmer climate as a "robust result" of recent
research. Meeting in Costa Rica in November 2006 at the 6th
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, organized by the
World Meteorological
Organization, the group underlined the complexities that
affect long-term prediction of cyclone characteristics and
called for more research on the link between climate change and
tropical cyclone intensity as many important issues remain
unresolved. Nevertheless, the closing words of the workshop
statement observe that "despite the diversity of research
opinions on this issue it is agreed that if there has been a
recent increase in tropical cyclone activity that is largely
anthropogenic in origin, then humanity is faced with a
substantial and unanticipated threat."
The scientists stress that "no individual events in
[recent] years can be attributed directly to the recent warming
of the global oceans." They conclude that the continuous
increase in economic damage and disruption caused by tropical
cyclones in recent decades is largely the result of increasing
coastal populations, increasing insured values in coastal areas
and, possibly, rising sensitivity of modern societies to
infrastructure disruption. The workshop statement warns that
"for developing countries large loss of human life will
continue as the increasing coastal populations are a result of
population growth and social factors that are not easily
countered."
The Global Climate
Observing System (GCOS) is launching an initiative, ClimDev
Africa, aimed at providing vital climate information for
development needs in Africa. The ten-year programme, which will
be African-led, will cost about US$200 million. "African
countries and people are subject to severe drought, flooding,
food shortages and disease. And, most of these natural
disasters are related to climate. Africa is also lagging
[behind] the rest of the world in terms of development,"
says GCOS official William Westermeyer. The aim of the
initiative is to improve climate monitoring and risk
management.
The strategy will be to provide the climate information
needed to manage more effectively crises, such as severe
drought and flooding, linked to climate change. "With
regard to health, malaria is a very big thing. And, it turns
out with better climate information, particularly knowing about
things like the onset of a new El Niño for example, you
can predict where malaria outbreaks are likely to occur several
months in advance. With better information, that can help you
prepare those areas to avoid the worst impacts,"
Westermeyer observes. GCOS is sponsored by the World Meteorological
Organization.
India claims that the rich countries of the
world have not delivered on promises to transfer technology to
combat global warming. "We had hoped for much larger
foreign direct investment. We are disappointed by the scale of
foreign technology under the Clean
Development Mechanism," said Prodipto Ghosh at the
Ministry of Forests and
Environment. "Adaptation will require tens of billions
of dollars a year," he says. The Indian government has set
up an adaptation fund and one expert reckons that the nation is
ahead of many developing countries in managing the climate
problem. "Adaptation is the same as development as it is
basically about improving people's ability to deal with
adversity whether it be adverse weather conditions or
poverty," comments Bilal Rahill, South Asia specialist
with the World Bank.
"India has a number of development programmes that have
inherent, built-in adaptation aspects."
India's carbon emissions rose by a third between 1992
and 2002, according to the World Bank's
Little Green Data Book. Yet, says environment minister A
Raja, "India is very little in terms of emissions and we
are not the biggest polluters when compared to the developed
nations." "We are not doing any harm to the entire
world," he continued. "We are, in spite of the
developmental activities taking place in this country, very
categorical that our emissions are below three per cent [of
global emissions] which is within limits." Nevertheless,
action is needed say environmentalists. "We understand
that the country is on a development path and that India still
needs to provide energy to much of its population," said K
Srinivas of Greenpeace India.
"But that doesn't mean we need to rely on primary
sources of energy like coal to do that. There are so many other
sources of renewable energy which we should be focusing more
on."
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has
warned that global carbon emissions could rise by 55 per cent
by 2030 unless "urgent" action is taken. Developing
countries would account for three-quarters of the increase,
passing the OECD
nations in terms of total emissions by as early as 2012.
"This increase [from developing countries] is faster than
that of their share in energy demand, because their incremental
energy use is more carbon-intensive than that of the OECD and
transitional economies. In general, they use more coal and less
gas," states the IEA's annual World Energy
Outlook.
China may overtake the United States as the world's
largest emitter before 2010, according to the IEA. The
prediction is "not impossible," according to Chen
Ying of the Research Centre for Sustainable Development of the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. But "to put a
penalty on China would be unfair," says Fatih Birol, who
is chief economist at the IEA. "After all, coal fuelled
the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom." IEA
executive director
Claude Mandil called on governments to adopt policies that
would move the world onto a sustainable energy path. "The
good news," he said, "is that these policies are very
cost-effective. There are additional upfront costs involved,
but they are quickly outweighed by savings in fuel
expenditures. And the extra investment by consumers is less
than the reduction in investment in energy-supply
infrastructure. Demand-side investments in more efficient
electrical goods are particularly economic; on average, an
additional US$1 invested in more efficient electrical equipment
and appliances avoids more than US$2 in investment in power
generation, transmission and distribution
infrastructure."
The Brazilian state of Pará has
designated an area the size of England as a conservation area.
"If any tropical rainforest on Earth remains intact a
century from now, it will be this portion of northern
Amazonia," says
Russell Mittermeier of Conservation
International. "The region has more undisturbed
rainforest than anywhere else, and the new protected areas
being created by Pará State represent a historic step
toward ensuring that they continue to conserve the region's
rich biodiversity, due in large part to the governor's
visionary achievement."
The protected region will be 16.4 million hectares in
extent. With neighbouring protected areas in Brazil, Guyana,
Suriname and French Guiana, it forms a green corridor known as
the
Guyana Shield, which contains some of the world's
richest habitats. About one third of the area will be totally
protected against any agricultural, industrial or domestic
development. "Traditional communities will be living in
these areas... They will be allowed to use the forest in a
sustainable way but this will not involve the clear-cutting of
the forest," said state governor Simão
Jatene. Road-building, logging, agriculture, mining and any
other destructive, non-sustainable activity would be banned or
strictly controlled. "If anyone tries to do this
illegally, it will be detected by satellites," he
warned.
The European
Commission (EC) is demanding deeper cuts in greenhouse gas
emissions than currently proposed by member states. Of the ten
plans submitted for approval, only the United Kingdom's
proposal was passed. Overall, the EC called for further
reductions totalling seven per cent. "I think that with
today's decisions the European Union will affirm its
leadership role in fighting climate change and also our strong
commitment to achieving the Kyoto
Protocol targets," said environment commissioner
Stavros
Dimas. The European Union needs to recover from the impact
of the first phase of its emissions
trading scheme, which saw
carbon prices crash after member states allocated more
emissions permits than needed to industry.
Reaction to the decision was mixed. The German government
described the action as "totally unacceptable" and
vowed to challenge the ruling. "It's slightly stricter
than I'd expected," commented Mats Ahl of German
utility
RWE.
Michael Grubb of the Carbon Trust in
the United Kingdom welcomed the move, saying that the European
Union has "done a lot to create a level playing
field." He commended the decision to cut back on only
those plans where there were clear grounds for doing so,
avoiding the "soft option of trying to cut everyone back
by a similar amount." Germany's request to free new
industrial installations from emissions restrictions would, he
argued, have given free emissions rights to new coal power
stations.
More than fifty Native American tribes met at
the first Tribal Lands
Climate Conference December 5-6th near the Lower Colorado
River. "The issues and challenges caused by climate change
being discussed during the Conference currently affect, and
will continue to affect, all tribes on a global scale. This
forum brings tribes together to address the issues and
challenges, in efforts to one day find solutions. Native
Americans can provide key inspiration regarding global warming
and its impact on our world, unite broad stakeholder support,
and demonstrate actions that alleviate global warming
impacts," said Garrit Voggesser of
the National
Wildlife Federation's Tribal Lands Conservation
Program. The meeting was hosted by the Cocopah Indian Tribe and National
Wildlife Federation.
All participants reported changes in climate and wildlife
that they saw as part of a long-term trend. "We basically
have two seasons now," said Robert Gomez of the
Taos Pueblo Environmental Office in northern New Mexico.
"Hot and dry, and cold and dry." As wildlife migrate
in response to climate trends, "we don't have the
legal right to follow them," said
Terry Williams, fisheries and natural resources
commissioner for the Tulalip Tribes. If
nothing is done, "within the next 20 to 25 years, our
culture will be terminated, because the necessary species will
be gone." The conference considered response options. For
example, the Nez Perce
Tribe in Idaho is growing trees for carbon sequestration.
In Alaska, indigenous high school students launched a climate
change awareness campaign, which prompted the state legislature
to create a climate change commission. The campaign also
resulted in the signing of a climate pact by the mayors of
Anchorage and North Pole and several tribal resolutions on
global warming.
A study of the link between ocean temperature
and phytoplankton
production suggests that higher temperatures will mean adverse
effects on the entire oceanic food web as phytoplankton
productivity drops. Analysis of recent satellite data shows
"this very tight coupling between production and
climate," said lead author
Michael Behrenfeld of Oregon State University in the
United States. Phytoplankton need nutrients, such as nitrogen,
phosphates and iron, from colder water lying beneath the ocean
surface, he explained. As the surface warms, these nutrients
become less accessible. As less food is produced by
phytoplankton the oceans get bluer in colour.
The European Alps are "currently experiencing the
warmest period... in 1,300 years," reports
Reinhard Böhm of Austria's
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Warm
weather during this past autumn and lack of snow has raised
concerns in Austrian ski resorts. Wilma Himmelfreundpointner of
the St.
Anton Tourist Office says that snow machines cannot produce
all the snow that is needed when temperatures and sunshine
levels are high. In Switzerland, "the start in the skiing
season was certainly not a success," said Daniela Baer for
Switzerland Tourism. "But on the other hand we had an
extremely strong September and October. The summer season was
just extended." Over Europe as a whole, autumn 2006 was
the warmest on record, which extends back to the 18th
century.
Raising cattle contributes more to global
warming than transportation, according to a report from the
Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO). "Livestock are one of the most
significant contributors to today’s most serious
environmental problems," commented lead author Henning
Steinfeld. "Urgent action is required to remedy the
situation." The study estimates that cattle production
generates 9 per cent of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide
emissions, 65 per cent of nitrous oxide emissions and 37 per
cent of methane emissions. Global meat production is expected
to double by 2050.
The report concludes that "this high level of emissions
opens up large opportunities for climate change mitigation
through livestock actions." Proposals include increasing
efficiency in livestock and feedcrop production, which would
reduce emissions from deforestation and pasture degradation,
restoring historical losses of soil carbon through
conservation tillage, cover
crops, agroforestry
and other measures including restoration of desertified
pastures, improved diets to reduce enteric
fermentation, improved manure
management and biogas production. It
is suggested that the Clean
Development Mechanism be used to finance the spread of
biogas and silvopastoral
initiatives and, as methodologies emerge, other
livestock-related options such as soil carbon sequestration
through rehabilitation of degraded pastures.
Atmospheric levels of methane have
stabilized, according to an analysis from the University of
California at Irvine, in the United States. After rising
by over one per cent a year through 1978 to 1987, growth
rates slowed over subsequent years, averaging close to zero
over the period December 1998 to December 2005. "What we
are seeing now is spurts of methane with very little net
change," says Sherwood Rowland
of the University of California. The variability from year to
year appears related to short-lived events that perturb the
atmospheric chemistry, such as volcanic eruptions or large
fires .
"The scientific community agrees that the pause is
source-driven rather than sink-driven, that is, caused by
decreasing emissions of methane," says research leader
Isobel Simpson, but "I don't believe we have reached a
consensus on which sources have decreased and by how
much." The halt in the trend may be related to the
economic slow-down in the nations of the former Soviet Union,
which has reduced energy use. Repair of leaky oil and gas lines
and storage units or a decrease in emissions from coal mining
and rice paddies may have played a part. Rowland says that the
development is unexpected "because there isn’t much
in the way of programmes to reduce methane emissions."
"We will gain some ground on global warming if methane is
not as large a contributor in the future as it has been in the
past century,", he says. But he goes on to warns against
complacency given limited understanding of just what has caused
the trend to halt.
Typhoon Durian struck the Philippines Thursday November
30th, with winds gusting up to 265km per hour. More than
830,000 people were affected as floodwater engulfed towns and
triggered mudslides. Over 1000 lives were lost. The province of Albay was
worst hit. President Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of national calamity,
which permits funds to be released more quickly to support
rescue efforts. "We are trying as much as possible to
broaden our reach," she said.
The United Nations
Children's Fund (UNICEF) sent emergency health supplies
for 10,000 people for three months in Albay province, with
additional medicines, food and shelter supplies to follow.
UNICEF is appealing for US$310,000 to address the health needs
of evacuees, improve damaged water and sanitation facilities,
provide "school in a box" kits and establish
child-friendly spaces for traumatized children.
The 2006
Climate Change Conference, held in Nairobi, Kenya, ended
17th November with a range of decisions supporting developing
country efforts to respond to the threat of climate change. The
Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and
Adaptation was agreed, as was management of the Adaptation
Fund. The meeting also set the rules for the Special
Climate Change Fund. "The conference has delivered on
its promise to support the needs of developing countries,"
said Conference President and Kenyan Minister for Natural
Resources and the Environment Kivutha Kibwana.
"The spirit of Nairobi has been truly
remarkable."
There was criticism of the level of financial support
currently committed. "The Adaptation Fund... may raise at
most 300 million Euros for the period between 2008 and 2012.
But the World Bank predicts that the most vulnerable developing
countries would actually need one hundred times this amount,
annually," commented Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth Europe.
"Rich countries are largely responsible for the climate
crisis. As a matter of justice, they must now commit to far
greater contributions to this fund." There remained
concern that no deadline had been set for resolution of a
post-2012 agreement to follow on from the Kyoto
Protocol. "While progress was made in Nairobi, our
leaders must recognize that scientific evidence and public
opinion demands much stronger action than what was
agreed," said
Hans Verolme of WWF.
China is to build one the world's largest
solar power stations. The 100MW facility will be located near
Dunhuang,
in Gansu province in northwest China. "Covering a total
area of 31,200 square metres, Dunhuang boasts 3,362 hours of
sunshine every year and is hailed as a prime area for solar
energy development, with its easy access to electricity
transmission and communications," according to the Xinhua
news agency. The project is part of the China Desert
Photoelectricity Project, supported by the National Development Reform
Commission, the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (IEECAS) and WWF. According to
Gan Lin of WWF, desert areas such as the Hexi Corridor
in Gansu province and the Taklimakan Desert
in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are suitable for large
solar projects. It has been estimated that exploiting one per
cent of that desert area to generate solar power would have
covered China's total electricity consumption in 2003.
Currently, 70 per cent of China's energy is derived from
fossil fuel combustion and the nation is the world's second
largest consumer of oil. China's proven coal reserve will
be exhausted in 81 years, petroleum in 15 years and natural gas
in 30 years at the current development rate, according to an
expert at IEECAS. By 2020, 15 per cent of the nations'
energy needs must be met from renewable sources. "In
China, introducing renewables is good industrial development
strategy, it's not part of the climate-change
argument," comments Eric Martinot of the Worldwatch
Institute in Washington DC in the United States.
"Local air pollution is playing a big factor in driving
many of these arguments, as ordinary people don't accept
this kind of pollution." According to the State
Environment Protection Agency, pollution cost China three per
cent of its GDP - £34 billion - in 2004. Meanwhile,
Nancy
Pelosi, speaker-elect of the United States
House of Representatives, has written an
open letter to Chinese President Hu Jintao,
proposing a partnership on climate change based on a New
Shanghai
Communique. The letter, which can be read as somewhat
patronizing in tone, may not be well-received as Pelosi has
been a vocal critic of China's record on trade and human
rights for some decades.
Some bird populations have already declined by
up to 90 per cent, according to a report on the impact of
climate change on bird species from conservation group WWF. "Robust
scientific evidence shows that climate change is now affecting
birds’ behaviour," according to co-author Karl
Mallon of Climate
Risk, in Sydney, Australia. "We are seeing migratory
birds failing to migrate, and climate change pushing increasing
numbers of birds out of synchrony with key elements of their
ecosystems," he continued. "Birds have long been used
as indicators of environmental change, and with this report we
see they are the quintessential 'canaries in the coal
mine' when it comes to climate change," said WWF's
Hans Verolme.
Migratory birds and sea birds are particularly at risk. The
report cites the unprecedented breeding crash of North Sea sea
birds in 2004 as an example of acute vulnerability to
environmental change. Common guillemots, Arctic skuas, great
skuas, kittiwakes, Arctic terns and other sea birds in Shetland
and Orkney colonies were affected by a shortage of their
prey, sandeels.
The shortage is believed to have been caused by ocean warming.
The report calls for a major change in bird conservation as the
effectiveness of current approaches based on protected areas is
weakened by global warming.
"Instead of being economically defensive,
let us start being more politically courageous," said
Kofi
Annan, secretary-general of the United Nations, addressing the 2006 Climate Change Conference
in Nairobi, Kenya. The conference "must send a clear,
credible signal that the world’s political leaders take
climate change seriously," he continued. "The
question is not whether climate change is happening, but
whether, in the face of this emergency, we ourselves can change
fast enough." He attacked those critical of the case for
action. "A few diehard sceptics continue trying to sow
doubt. They should be seen for what they are: out of step, out
of arguments and out of time." Calling on the governments
of the industrialized nations to "do much more to bring
their emissions down," he referred to a "frightening
lack of leadership" in meeting the challenge of climate
change. Finally, he introduced the new Nairobi Framework.
The Nairobi Framework has been assembled by six United
Nations agencies to help developing nations, particularly in
Africa, obtain increased funding to promote clean energy
technology, such as wind and hydropower, and manage the climate
threat. As part of the initiative, the United Nations Development Programme
and the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) have set up a partnership to
build country capacity to take part in carbon finance funds and
to decrease vulnerability to climate change. "Investments
in roads, railways, hospitals, fisheries and power systems are
underway across the sub-Saharan African region but few if any
are being planned with future climatic impacts in mind,"
said
Achim Steiner, UNEP head. "Some of these projects, for
example a new dam, may be increasingly vulnerable as a result
of more intense droughts whereas others - for example a coastal
road scheme - may be at risk from sea level rise," he
continued. "We need in-depth studies and national
adaptation plans but we also need a rapid response service so
that a minister, faced with a planning application, can pick up
the phone and have ‘climate proofing’ expertise on
his or her doorstep within a matter of days."
The 2006 Climate Change Conference re-affirmed the goal of
agreeing an extension to the Kyoto
Protocol for the post-2012 period. This would be achieved
"as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is
no gap" before the new agreement comes into force. No
deadline was set, disappointing some observers. "Ministers
are simply not reflecting the urgency which is being felt in
the real world," charged Catherine
Pearce of Friends of the
Earth UK. "We are still not seeing the bold leadership
which is needed here." There has been discussion of
increasing flexibility within the post-2012 agreement in order
to draw in Kyoto outsiders such as the United States and major
developing nations such as China and India. "We have to
make it attractive for countries to take part," commented
Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "I
see people looking at a larger menu of options and I find that
very constructive." Finally, conference participants
agreed a minimal review of existing measures under the Kyoto
Protocol, to take place in 2008. Developing countries had been
concerned that the review might result in demands that they
adopt binding emissions targets.
An international team of researchers has
concluded that the world's forests may have reached a
"turning point." "Forest area and biomass are
still being lost in such important countries as Brazil and
Indonesia, but an increasing number of nations show
gains," the report states. The Forest
Identity report shows a rise in biomass and carbon storage
capacity over the past 15 years in 22 of the 50 countries
studied. "This great reversal in land use could stop the
styling of a 'Skinhead Earth' and begin a great
restoration of the landscape by 2050, expanding the global
forest by ten per cent - about 300 million hectares, the area
of India," said Jesse Ausubel at
Rockefeller
University in New York, United States.
The report cites government policy, in forest protection and
the preservation of farmland, as a major factor in reducing
deforestation trends. In Europe, timber imports, sustainable
forestry, energy technology, farm technology and migration from
rural to urban areas have played a part. Pekka
Kauppi at the University of
Helsinki, Finland, comments that "without depopulation
or impoverishment, increasing numbers of countries are
experiencing transitions in forest area and density. While
complacency would be misplaced, our insights provide grounds
for optimism about the prospects for returning
forests."
A new report from the Secretariat of the United Nations
Framework on Climate Change concludes that the
vulnerability of the African continent to climate change is
even greater than previously estimated. Thirty per cent of
Africa's coastal infrastructure could be inundated and
between 25 and 40 per cent of species' habitats lost by
2085. By that time, cereal crop yields could have dropped by up
to five per cent, with yields of subsistence crops also
declining. "We are already seeing climate-related changes
in my country," said lead author Balgis Osman Elasha of
the Climate Change Unit in the Sudanese Ministry of the Environment.
"The Gum Arabic belt, an economically important crop, has
shifted southwards below latitude 14 degrees north and the
rains which used to occur from mid June to the end of August
now start in mid July until the end of September with important
ramifications for agriculture and livelihoods."
Responding to the report,
Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment
Programme, said that "climate change is underway and
the international community must respond by offering well
targeted assistance to those countries in the front-line which
are facing increasing impacts such as extreme droughts and
floods and threats to infrastructure from phenomena like rising
sea levels. Part of the action, part of the adaptation response
and part of this responsibility to Africa, must include
significant improvements in Africa’s climate and weather
monitoring capabilities." Michel
Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization
observed that "Africa is the largest of all tropical
landmasses and, at 30 million square km, is about a fifth of
the world’s total land area. Yet the climate observing
system in Africa is in a far worse and deteriorating state than
that of any other continent."
"Climate change is rapidly emerging as
one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever
face," said Kenyan environment minister Kivutha Kibwana,
president of the 2006 United
Nations Climate Change Conference, opening the meeting.
"We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty
reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades,
particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of
Africa," he continued. The first week of the conference
saw disagreement between delegates on the deadline for agreeing
a post-Kyoto
accord, with targets ranging from the end of 2008, through
2009 to 2010. The fact the United States President George W Bush steps
down in January 2009 may prove a critical factor.
"I think it's important to the market that an
agreement is reached without delay," said
Ron Levi of brokers GFI.
"Frustration is justified," commented
Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat.
"It's going slowly. The problem is that countries'
interests conflict in a number of areas." Harlan Watson,
United States climate negotiator, said that he did not see any
change in policy as a result of the mid-term elections that saw
the Republican Party lose control of the House of
Representatives and the Senate. Australia won the initial
Fossil of the
Day award from the Climate Action Network by
comparing Australian vulnerability to climate change to that of
Africa and the Pacific island nations.
A new report, Mapping Climate Vulnerability
and Poverty in Africa, finds that small, rain-fed crop and
livestock subsistence farming systems in arid and semi-arid
areas are the communities most vulnerable to climate change in
Africa. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and large parts of Niger and
Chad are particularly at risk. "While a peasant farmer may
not understand climate change, he appreciates that it is
increasingly becoming difficult to time the planting seasons as
rainfall is unpredictable," commented Beneah Daniel
Odhiambo, from Moi
University, Eldoret, Kenya. "As a result, there is
high crop failure resulting in famine in many parts of Africa.
Prolonged seasons of drought also cause the migration of people
to other areas and is a potential source of conflict between
communities competing for scarce resources."
"People will experience great problems unless there is
investment in adaptation options," warns Mario
Herrero of the International Livestock Research
Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya, the institution that
led the project. The report concludes that Africa must learn to
adapt to the world's changing climate if lives and
livelihoods are to be saved. "These findings present an
immense challenge," said ILRI's Tom Owiyo.
"Climate change presents a global ethical challenge as
well as a development, scientific and organizational challenge
in Africa."
Two new reports define management approaches
that could help two vulnerable ecosystems, mangroves and
coral
reefs, cope with climate change and other stresses.
Published by the World
Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Nature Conservancy, the reports
"give a clear positive message: while we cannot stop
climate change in the short term, we can help tropical marine
ecosystems survive. If reef managers and politicians follow the
measures proposed in these publications, we may be able to
reverse the trend," says Carl Gustaf
Lundin, head of IUCN's Global Marine
Programme.
The proposed measures are intended to keep other
disturbances and threats away, making these ecosystems
healthier and thus more resilient to climate impacts. "We
need to minimize human impacts such as pollution, overfishing
or unsustainable coastal development. Then the coral reefs have
a bigger chance of coming back after bleaching and of adapting
to rising sea temperatures or more acid waters," according
to Gabriel
Grimsditch of IUCN. Particularly healthy and
climate-change-resilient sites should be protected as these may
be able to help restore degraded coral reefs and mangroves in
the future. Monitoring of coral reefs before, during and after
a bleaching
event is needed to raise awareness amongst managers and
politicians.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the
economies in transition (EITs) of eastern and central
Europe grew by 4.1 per cent over the period 2000-2004,
according to the latest data compiled by the Climate Change Secretariat.
"This means that industrialized countries will need to
intensify their efforts to implement strong policies which
reduce greenhouse gas emissions," warned executive
secretary
Yvo de Boer. Over the period 1990-2004, total emissions
from the industrialized nations have fallen by 3.3 per cent.
Much of this, though, has been due to massive declines in
emissions from the EITs during the 1990s, a trend that has now
been reversed.
The 2006 United
Nations Climate Change Conference, consisting of the second
meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP2), in
conjunction with the twelfth session of the Conference of the
Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP12), is taking
place from November 6-17th in Nairobi, Kenya. Some delegates
doubt that much progress will be made at these sessions. But
"the clock is ticking," says
Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme.
"We are in fact in some ways with our backs against the
wall if you want to have a post-2012 regime in place. We need
to keep moving." While arguing that "we need to act
very urgently or it's going to get very expensive,"
Yvo de Boer, who leads the Climate
Change Secretariat, told Reuters that there is no pressure
yet to set a deadline for completing a post-Kyoto
agreement.
The Stern Review of climate economics,
released last week, has received criticism from a number of
quarters. Not surprisingly, the Australian government, which
has
refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, rejected the
report's conclusions. Arguing that an effective
international agreement must include all nations, Prime
Minister John Howard told
coalition members of parliament not to get
"mesmerized" by one report. "If everybody is in,
I am prepared to lead Australia in," he said. "But I
am not prepared to lead Australia into an agreement that is
going to betray the interests of the working men and women of
this country and destroy the natural advantage that providence
gave us." The United States vigorously defended its
position as the report was launched. White House spokesman
Tony Snow
said that President Bush
"has, in fact, contrary to stereotype, been actively
engaged in trying to fight climate change and will continue to
do so."
Christian
Aid welcomed the Stern Review but warned that its
conclusions would not lead to adequate protection for millions
of poor people. "Talk of economic dangers is all very well
but a real danger still remains for poor people in the
developing world whose futures depend on our willingness to
act," commented Christian Aid's Andrew Pendleton.
"If we follow the report's conclusions, we may avert
economic bankruptcy but we will still be teetering on the brink
of moral bankruptcy." Christian Aid is concerned that
Stern dismisses a carbon dioxide equivalent stabilization level
of 450 parts per million as too expensive, but, in reality,
poor people are already struggling to cope with existing
climate change as a result of an atmosphere polluted with
430ppm. At Stern's higher target levels, "large parts
of the developing world would be exposed to a much greater risk
of disaster and misery," Pendleton said.
A new report from the World Bank argues that, if left
standing to provide carbon storage, forests may be worth five
times as much as when felled. "The trees are worth more
alive, storing carbon, than they would be worth if burned and
transformed to unproductive fields," says lead author
Kenneth Chomitz. "Right now, people living at the
forest’s edge can’t tap that value." Tropical
deforestation accounts for about a fifth of carbon emissions,
with five per cent or more of these forests lost a decade.
"By the middle of the century, vast tropical forests may
be reduced to just shreds of what they once were," warns
Chomitz.
"Global carbon finance can be a powerful incentive to
stop deforestation," according to
François Bourguignon at the World Bank.
"Compensation for avoiding deforestation could help
developing countries to improve forest governance and boost
rural incomes, while helping the world at large to mitigate
climate change more vigorously."
Kathy Sierra, also with the World Bank, reckons that a
"comprehensive framework that integrates sustainable
forest management into the global strategy for mitigating
climate change and preserving biodiversity" is needed. The
report considers approaches to limiting deforestation in
different forest areas, designed to tackle problems specific to
each region.
According to the Stern Review of climate
economics, "our actions over the coming few decades could
create risks of major disruption to economic and social
activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale
similar to those associated with the great wars and the
economic depression of the first half of the 20th
Century." Commenting on the report, British Prime Minister
Tony
Blair said that "this disaster is not set to happen in
some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our
lifetime." "Investment now will pay us back many
times in the future, not just environmentally but economically
as well," he continued. "For every £1 invested
now we can save £5, or possibly more, by acting
now."
The report, which was commissioned by the British
government, considers the economic impacts of future climate
trends and the costs of taking action to avert the threat by
reducing emissions and limiting impacts. It concludes that
stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases will cost about one
per cent of annual global output by 2050. With no action,
climate change will reduce global consumption per head by
between five and 20 per cent by that time. Citing climate
change as the greatest market failure the world has seen, the
Stern Review advocates carbon pricing, policies to drive the
development and deployment of low-carbon and high-efficieny
technology, and action to remove barriers to energy efficiency
and to foster individual responses. The report's author,
Sir
Nicholas Stern, considers that "the conclusions of the
Review are essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid
the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act
internationally."
The president of Kiribati, Anote Tong, has
warned Australia and New Zealand that climate change could
create countless environmental refugees. "If we are
talking about our island states submerging in ten years'
time, we simply have to find somewhere else to go," he
said. "If we become refugees, then so be it. I think the
international community has to get used to it." He was
speaking at a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum in
Fiji. "Our islands are very flat, as flat as a
table," said Paani Laupepa, representing Tuvalu, in an
interview with Reuters. "It will be the whole population,
the entire 10,000 people will be affected. We have a right to
live in this environment and now we are being forced
away."
Laupepa feels that Australia "has no commitment"
to solving the Pacific Islanders' problems. Responding to a
recent report on
global warming impacts in the Pacific, Australian
environment minister,
Ian Campbell, has said that Australia "has always
stood by our Pacific neighbours in times of need and that will
never change." The focus, though, should be on helping
islanders to stay in their home countries. New Zealand has
announced a plan to accept up to 5000 seasonal workers from
island states. "It's a foot in the door," Laupepa
said. "We are very grateful. Labour mobility is an
opportunity to gain something useful in life."
The United States and the European Union
pledged to increase collaboration and explore areas for further
work on renewable energy, clean coal and other climate-related
policies during a two-day
meeting in Finland. The meeting was the latest in a series
of dialogues that was established at the
Eleventh Conference of the Parties to the climate
convention last year. Paula
Dobriansky, head of the United States delegation, said that
the two sides shared "very common goals and
objectives" on the climate issue, adding there were
"multiple" ways of achieving the results.
James
Connaughton, of the White House Council on
Environmental Quality, cited cleaner coal as a
major area for cooperation. "Coal is one of the biggest
challenges because it's the area where we need some of the
most significant investments and technological
applications," he said. He also called for joint standards
on biofuels.
"It's very important for us to come to agreement on
the basic standards for those fuel grades so that manufacturers
can produce vehicles and engines that can use the fuel
globally."
|
October 24th is United
Nations Day, the anniversary of the entry into force of
the United Nations Charter in 1945. |
"The potential for conflict arising from
the consequences of global warming" represents a major
trend that "we now see", warns Achim
Steiner, executive director of the United
Nations Environment Programme. "If global warming
trends continue,... they will have significant impact on where
people can live, grow food and whether people will have to
leave," he said in an interview
with Reuters. Steiner was attending the Second
Intergovernmental Review of the Global
Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine
Environment from Land-based Activities in Beijing,
China.
The Beijing meeting saw the release of a new report on coral
reefs, entitled Our Precious Coasts. The study
underlines the importance of protecting the natural resilience
of coral reefs in order to strengthen their resistance to
long-term climate change. "If we fail to protect the
coastlines from unchecked piecemeal development, or protect the
water sheds from deforestation, huge amounts of sewage and
sediment loads will reduce the ability of reefs to recover
dramatically. Once they are overgrown, it is difficult for them
to recover, and over time they change or even die
entirely," says Christian
Nellemann, from UNEP
GRID-Arendal in Norway.
"At present, the financial resources
provided to developing countries do not suffice to meet the
needs for mitigation and adaptation as required under the
United Nations
Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto
Protocol," says
Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the climate treaty Secretariat.
Addressing participants at the conference Make Markets Work for
Climate held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, he called for a
long-term legal framework to provide security for carbon
markets and climate investments. "Whilst the Clean Development
Mechanism has been gaining speed very rapidly, there would
be a significant risk for the value of carbon beyond 2012
without a long-term provision for the carbon market," he
warned. "To guarantee continuity for investments, a
post-2012 agreement is urgently needed."
Kofi
Annan, head of the United
Nations, has warned that the true test of international
environmental agreements remains implementation and
enforcement. In a message to an
environmental law colloquium in New York, in the United
States, he said that "action on climate change is
particularly urgent, given its profound implications for
virtually every aspect of human well-being, from jobs and
health to growth and security." "Until we stop
treating climate change as a strictly environmental concern,
and instead recognize the full nature of this threat, our
action will fall short," he continued.
The Pew
Center on Global Climate Change has provided a guide for
corporate decision makers, Getting Ahead of the Curve,
that presents an in-depth assessment of the development of
corporate strategies that take account of climate-related
threats and opportunities. Authored by
Andrew Hoffman of the University of
Michigan in Ann Arbor in the United States, the report
concludes that businesses need to engage actively with
government in the development of climate policy. "If you
look at what is happening today at the state level and in the
Congress, a proactive approach in the policy arena clearly
makes sound business sense," said Eileen
Claussen from the Pew Center. "In the corporate world,
inaction is no longer an option."
As Japan reported that its greenhouse gas emissions have
risen by 0.6 per cent over the past financial year, carbon
credit trading between companies began under the nation's
new voluntary scheme. "It's the first trial of a real
emissions cap and trading system in Japan," reported
Yasushi Ninomiya of the Ministry of the Environment.
There are, though, criticisms of the scheme. "Our company
will not join the voluntary emissions-trading scheme next
year," said Nippon Electric Glass
spokesman Kuniaki Kimura. "The government subsidies are
not well linked to business investments to install equipment to
cut emissions."
The Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 854 million
people around the world remain undernourished. Foreign aid
for agriculture and rural development has declined from over
US$9 billion per year in the early 1980s to less than US$5
billion in the late 1990s. At present, forty countries face
food emergencies, with the worst situation in the Darfur
region of the Sudan. According to a recent FAO report,
"the already precarious food supply situation [in
Darfur] may worsen if deteriorating security disrupts the
main harvest due to start in the coming few weeks."
The FAO report, Crop
Prospects and Food Situation, for October 2006 warns that
prospects for the year's cereal harvest have deteriorated
further due, amongst other things, to adverse weather
conditions in Australia, Argentina, Brazil and South Asia.
"The main concern is the declining stocks and whether
supplies will be adequate to meet demand without world prices
surging to even higher levels," the report states. The
southern Africa region will require 542,000 tons of cereal
for the 2006/7 season to meet predicted shortfalls. HIV/Aids,
high unemployment and low purchasing power are cited as the
main reasons for the continuing crisis in this region.
More information
|
Other related news
|
October 9th was World Overshoot Day for
2006, the day on which humanity exhausted this year's
renewable natural resources and began living beyond its
ecological means, according to Global Footprint
Network (GFN). Mathis
Wackernagel, GFN executive director, warns that
"humanity is living off its ecological credit card and
can only do this by liquidating the planet’s natural
resources. While this can be done for a short while,
overshoot ultimately leads to the depletion of resources,
such as the forests, oceans and agricultural land upon which
our economy depends."
Humanity first went into ecological debt in 1987, when
Overshoot Day was December 19th. By 1995, it had moved
forward to November 21st. "By living so far beyond our
environmental means, and running up ecological debts we make
two mistakes. First, we deny millions globally who already
lack access to sufficient land, food and clean water the
chance to meet their needs. Secondly, we put the
planet’s life support mechanisms in peril," said
Andrew Simms, policy director of the new economics
foundation, a GFN partner.
Millions could become homeless in the
Asia-Pacific region as sea levels rise by up to 50cm by the
year 2070, warns a new report from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation. "Vast areas of the
Asia-Pacific are low lying, particularly the small-island
states, as well as the large river deltas found in India and
Bangladesh, Southeast Asia and China," note the authors.
As sea-level rise tops 50cm, "large areas of Bangladesh,
India, Vietnam are inundated and Kiribati, Fiji and the
Maldives are reduced to just a small fraction of their
current land area."
World Vision
Australia head, Tim
Costello, called for a review of national immigration
policy, saying that "this is enlightened self-interest,
because there are going to be so many environmental refugees
knocking on our door, flooding here with the sea levels rise
as predicted and... the failure of economics and crops
because of the rain changes in so many of these
countries." The study was commissioned by the Climate Change and Development
Roundtable and was conducted by Ben
Preston, Ramasamy
Suppiah, Ian
Macadam and Janice
Bathols.
Twenty nations from the industrialized and
developing worlds met in Monterrey, Mexico, last week to
discuss joint action on climate change. The G8 Plus
Five Climate Change Dialogue is a result of the
2005 G8 summit. There was broad agreement amongst the
participants on the need to limit future emissions of
greenhouse gases. "Time is running out, and the size of
the challenge is enormous," warned Mexican Environment
Minister José
Luis Luege. "The meeting has dramatized the need for
comprehensive global action. The message about the need for
early action is very strong," reported British
Environment Secretary David
Miliband.
Welcoming the consensus, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said
that the meeting "is a very important indicator of the
desire of the world now to come together and deal with the
issue of energy and the environment and how we make sure
there is sustainable growth in the future. And the fact that
you have got a dialogue now that involves America and India
and China, as well as the European countries, is obviously
very important for the future." Despite this optimism,
progress is occurring in fits and starts. The World Bank described its new
framework for
investment in clean technology for developing countries
but reported delays with the US$20 billion investment
programme. The United States has reservations about aspects
of the plan.
Ozone loss
over Antarctica reached a new record this year, according to
the European
Space Agency (ESA). "Such significant ozone loss
requires very low temperatures in the stratosphere combined
with sunlight. This year’s extreme loss of ozone can be
explained by the temperatures above Antarctica reaching the
lowest recorded in the area since 1979," reported ESA
scientist Claus Zehner. The record-breaking nature of the
2006 hole is confirmed by data reported by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO). The thinner layer "will lead to more ultraviolet
radiation on the ground," said Geir Braathen, WMO ozone
expert.
Measurements from the ESA Envisat
satellite show an ozone mass deficit (total ozone loss) over
Antarctica of close to 40 million metric tons this year. The
previous record loss occurred in 2000. The ozone hole has
been the largest in surface area and in depth this year, with
both records broken simultaneously. The WMO and the United Nations Environment
Programme reported earlier this year the latest ozone
recovery forecasts, which suggest that the ozone layer might
return to pre-1980 levels by 2049 over much of Europe, North
America, Asia, Australasia, Latin America and Africa. Over
Antarctica, ozone recovery could be delayed until 2065.
Rising pollution is having serious health,
economic and environmental impacts on the world's oceans,
according to a new study from the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP). "An estimated 80 per cent of
marine pollution originates from the land and this could rise
significantly by 2050 if, as expected, coastal populations
double in just over 40 years time and action to combat
pollution is not accelerated," said UNEP head Achim
Steiner. "We have a long way to go politically,
technically and financially if we are to hand over healthy
and productive seas and oceans to the next
generation."
The report identifies sewage as a major problem, in part
because little progress has been made in this area. In many
developing countries, it estimates, more then 80 per cent of
sewage entering the coastal zone is untreated. "We
perhaps in the 20th century thought we could use the oceans
as our sewage treatment plants," said Steiner.
"This sewage is not just something that goes into the
sea and the sea does it for us anymore." The cost to
remedy this problem would be at least US$56 billion. Marine
litter, resource over-use and habitat destruction are also
cited as serious impacts. Other areas in need of "urgent
attention" include the impact of dams, new streams of
chemicals and the state of wetlands. Efforts are needed to
improve monitoring on continents such as Africa where data
"remains fragmented and woefully low."
Small Island Developing States have stressed their
vulnerability to climate change and the need for energy
efficiency and fair trade to protect their people against
economic and environmental shocks during recent debates
in the United Nations
General Assembly. "To a Small Island Developing
State, there are few things more important than securing
the necessary assistance in order to build resilience
against the many hazards that afflict the country on a
consistent basis, including the violent storms that pass
through our region even more frequently as a result of
global warming," said Frederick
Mitchell, Foreign Minister of the Bahamas. He called
for the development of alternative energy sources
"to make us less dependent on the current polluting
technologies that supply our energy needs but threaten
our sustainability." Petrus
Compton, Foreign Minister of Saint Lucia, argued that
"the international community, and in particular our
developed partners, need to take more aggressive action
to promote the development and distribution of renewable
energy and energy efficiency technologies in developed
and developing countries alike." He advocated the
establishment of a global renewable energy and energy
efficiency fund.
|
Charles
Savarin, Foreign Minister of Dominica, welcomed the
Central Emergency Response Fund, which, he said,
"will significantly enhance the capacity of the
United Nations to more effectively respond to the
increasing frequency of natural disasters brought about
by climate change and global warming." On trade,
Eamon
Courtenay, the Foreign Minister of Belize, said the
World
Trade Organization had worsened conditions for his
country. "There is something fundamentally unfair in
a system which promises a development agenda and delivers
suspended negotiations and less market access to
vulnerable economies," he said. In an earlier
debate, Redley
Killion, Vice-President of the Federated States of
Micronesia, warned that small island nations "are
under greater threat than ever before," despite the
fact that they contribute little themselves to the
climate problem. Nauruan President Ludwig
Scotty lamented the lack of any substantial reduction
in greenhouse gas emissions since the signing of the
Kyoto
Protocol in 1997 or in implementing the commitments
made at the Mauritius
Summit last year.
|
A decline in methane
emissions from human activity during the 1990s, largely
associated with less, or more efficient, use of natural
gas, was responsible for the slower growth in atmospheric
levels during that period, according to a recent study.
Using observations and computer simulations, the research
team determined that methane levels fell from a growth rate
of 12 parts per billion (ppb) a year during the 1980s to 4
ppb a year in the 1990s. Methane emissions have increased
since that time, but a reduction in wetland emissions
caused by draining and climate change has offset the effect
on concentrations in the atmosphere.
|
Paul
Steele from CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research in Australia, reckons that "had it not
been for this reduction in methane emissions from wetlands,
atmospheric levels of methane would most likely have
continued rising. This suggests that, if the drying trend
is reversed and emissions from wetlands return to normal,
atmospheric methane levels may increase again, worsening
the problem of climate change." The recent rise in
emissions from human activity is linked to fossil fuel use
in north Asia. Though concerned about future trends,
Jos Lelieveld, from the Max Planck Institute for
Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, believes that methane
emissions are much easier to control than carbon. "In
my opinion the easiest and most time-effective way to
control climate change is to start acting on methane,"
he says.
|
The world is warmer than it has been for
12,000 years, according to scientists from the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration and universities
in the United States. Global temperature has risen by 0.2
degrees Celsius every decade for the past thirty years. The
study, based on indirect evidence of past ocean
temperatures, concludes that the recent warming has brought
global temperature to within about one degree Celsius
of the highest temperature of the past million years.
|
"The evidence implies that we are getting close to
dangerous levels of human-made pollution," warned
James
Hansen, of the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies in New York. "If further global warming
reaches two or three degrees Celsius, we will likely see
changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we
know," he said. "The
last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about
three million years ago, when sea level was estimated to
have been about 25 metres higher than today."
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Satellite images of the pack ice in the
Arctic
Ocean have revealed extensive clearance during summer
2006. "This situation is unlike anything observed in
previous record low ice seasons," commented Mark
Drinkwater of the European Space
Agency. "It is highly imaginable that a ship
could have passed from Spitzbergen or Northern Siberia
through what is normally pack ice to reach the North Pole
without difficulty," he continued. "If this
anomaly trend continues, the North-East Passage or
'Northern Sea Route' between Europe and Asia will
be open over longer intervals of time, and it is
conceivable we might see attempts at sailing around the
world directly across the summer Arctic Ocean within the
next 10-20 years."
|
A new study from the University of Colorado
reveals that the Greenland
ice sheet is still losing mass. Between April 2004
and April 2006, the ice sheet lost ice at about
two-and-a-half times the rate over the previous two
years. "The acceleration rate really took off in
2004," said Isabella
Velicogna of the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences. "We think
the changes we are seeing are probably a pretty good
indicator of the changing climatic conditions in
Greenland, particularly in the southern region," she
continued.
|
An international conference on the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) took place in Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia, 19th-21st September. Noting that "CDM
gives flexibility to industrialized nations to meet their
greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by setting up
environment-clean projects in developing countries,"
conference chair
Mohammad al-Sabban, an adviser to the Saudi oil
minister, described CDM as "a win for investor, a win
for the project host country and a win for the
environment." Saudi Minister Ali
Al-Naimi confirmed his nation's commitment to the
Kyoto
Protocol, though he did warn that "solutions, such
as solar, wind, nuclear or hydroelectric power may
contribute to carbon dioxide emissions reductions, but they
cannot meet increasing global demand for energy."
Inaugurating the meeting, Riyadh Governor Prince
Salman called on the business community to take
advantage of opportunities provided by new investment
avenues, such CDM.
|
Criticizing industrialized nations for not investing
more in the scheme, acting secretary-general of the
Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries Mohammed Barkindo claimed
that "the mechanism is making relatively insignificant
benefits to developing countries given what was initially
envisaged." With the number of CDM projects rising to
300 this year,
Yvo de Boer,
recently appointed United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change Executive Secretary, considers that
"via international carbon finance, there is a
potential to generate up to 100 billion dollars per year in
green investment flow to developing countries... None of
the other types of financial resources available to these
countries have a potential of this scale."
|
The state of California is suing six
automobile manufacturers over global warming. Accusing the
carmakers of creating a "public nuisance", the
complaint states that climate change "injuries have
caused the people to suffer billions of dollars in damages,
including millions of dollars of funds expended to
determine the extent, location and nature of future harm
and to prepare for and mitigate those harms, and billions
of dollars of current harm to the value of flood control
infrastructure and natural resources." The measure
builds on recent
initiatives by California governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger.
|
"While the Bush administration continues to burrow
its head in the sand, California has taken out a whole
arsenal to combat emissions," commented
Daniel Becker of the Sierra Club. The
Automobile Alliance noted that manufacturers were
already working to produce more fuel-efficient cars and
argued that "using nuisance suits to address global
warming would involve the courts in deciding political
questions beyond their jurisdiction." "This opens
the door to lawsuits targeting any activity that uses
fossil fuel for energy," the Alliance statement
continued.
|
Switzerland and Kenya led a two-day
meeting, September 14-15th, in Rüschlikon,
Switzerland, to discuss the future role of developing
nations within the climate treaty. At least seventeen
developing nations took part. "We want to reinforce
the dialogue launched last year in Montreal, by
concentrating on reduction actions, which would be
possible in all countries," Swiss environment
minister
Moritz Leuenberger said. Technical or financial
support was also on the agenda. "This support has to
take account of the priorities for Africa and other
developing countries. Such priorities will be an
important subject of discussions here in Rüschlikon,
and [at the next Conference
of the Parties to the climate treaty] in Nairobi in
November," commented Leuenberger.
|
Earlier in the week, Asian
and European politicians meeting in Helsinki,
Finland, pledged to continue to cut greenhouse gases
after the expiry of the Kyoto
Protocol in the year 2012. The summit declaration
calls for "the widest possible cooperation" in
fighting global warming. "In comparison to ten years
ago, now all countries recognize that climate change is
an important issue, that we must continue Kyoto, that the
time after 2012 must be in our sights and that we must do
everything possible to improve energy efficiency and, at
the same time, facilitate economic growth," said
German Chancellor Angela
Merkel. The declaration does, however, stop short of
setting actual targets.
|
Changes in solar activity have made a
"negligible" contribution to global warming over
the past century, according to a new study. "Our
results imply that over the past century climate change due
to human influences must far outweigh the effects of
changes in the sun's brightness, said co-author
Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States.
"This basically rules out the sun as the cause of
global warming," concludes Henk Spruit of the Max Planck Institute for
Astrophysics in Garching, Germany.
|
Tom Wigley also contributed to a recent survey of the
link between human activity and ocean warming in areas
important for the formation of tropical storms. "The
important conclusion is that the observed sea surface
temperature increases in these hurricane breeding grounds
cannot be explained by natural processes alone," he
said. The analysis suggests that "with increasing sea
surface temperatures, we can expect more intense
hurricanes," reports co-author Nathan Gillett of
the Climatic Research
Unit at the University
of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom.
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A second Green Revolution is needed to
feed the world's growing population, according to
Jacques
Diouf, head of the Food
and Agriculture Organization The original Green
Revolution, which doubled world food production,
"relied on the lavish use of inputs such as water,
fertilizer and pesticides," he said. "The task
ahead may well prove harder. We not only need to grow an
extra one billion tonnes of cereals a year by 2050 but do
so from a diminishing resource base of land and water in
many of the worlds regions, and in an environment
increasingly threatened by global warming and climate
change."
|
Diouf reckons that the "new Green Revolution will
be less about introducing new, high-performance varieties
of wheat or rice, important as they are, and much more
about making wiser and more efficient use of the natural
resources available to us." The place to start was at
village level and in developing countries themselves.
"Investing in agriculture is usually low in the order
of priorities of politicians, typically more interested in
short-term returns, but we can no longer afford such
neglect - our future depends on it."
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A coalition of non-governmental
organizations and think tanks has called on rich countries
to pay for the effect that their lavish lifestyles have on
the people and environment of the developing world in a new
report on the implications of climate change for Latin
America and the Caribbean. "The poorest of the poor
are hit first and hardest by the impacts of climate change,
although they had little or no role in causing the
crisis," says Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth
Europe. "Climate change is mostly a result of the
energy-hungry lifestyles in the rich world, including the
European Union," he continues. "Consequently,
Europe must take more serious steps to cut back its own
emissions, but also it must act according to the principle
that the polluter must pay and must finance adaptation
measures and disaster relief in regions like in Latin
America and the Caribbean."
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"Climate change impacts are being felt across Latin
America, ranging from drought in the Amazon to floods in
Haiti, from vanishing glaciers in Colombia to hurricanes,
not only in Central America but even in southern
Brazil," according to Giulio Volpi of WWF
International. "Across the region the capacity of
natural ecosystems to act as buffers against extreme
weather events is being undermined, leaving people more
vulnerable." The coalition concludes that immediate
action is needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, stop
illegal logging and government-sanctioned deforestation and
prioritize energy efficiency and renewable energy projects.
It also calls for assessment of national vulnerabilities,
support for community-based coping strategies and disaster
risk reduction, increased support for small-scale
agriculture and new standards for the private sector.
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Leaked information from the forthcoming
Fourth
Assessment of the International Panel on Climate
Change suggests that the more extreme forecasts of
global warming rates may be revised down. The current
draft narrows the range of predictions for the year 2100
from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius to 2 to 4.5 degrees
Celsius, reflecting increasing confidence in the
forecasts. Holding greenhouse gas emissions at current
levels would limit the rise to two degrees by the end of
the century, the draft report concludes. The report will
finalized in the first quarter of 2007.
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Dismissing the Kyoto
Protocol as "largely ineffectual,"
Frances Cairncross, chair of the United Kingdom
Economic
and Social Research Council has called for a greater
emphasis on adapting to the changing climate. Speaking at
the British Association
Festival of Science in Norwich, United Kingdom, she
said that "adaptation policies have had far less
attention than mitigation, and that is a mistake. We need
to think now about policies that prepare for a hotter,
drier world, especially in poorer countries." Former
United States Vice President Al Gore,
meanwhile, warned that adaptation to climate change could
serve as an excuse for not reducing pollution. "We
have to solve it [global warming] and there are some
people who urge adaptation instead of prevention, and
that formulation must be rejected," he said while
visiting Helsinki, Finland. Given the damage already
done, it is only morally responsible that poor nations
must be helped to cope with existing changes, he
continued.
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Approaches to slowing deforestation were
discussed at a workshop in Rome, Italy, during the first
week in September. Governments presented the results of
their actions to slow forest destruction and the lessons
they had learned. The workshop also considered the
technical requirements for monitoring deforestation rates
and consequent emissions. "This meeting clarified the
key challenges in this area and identified useful ways to
move forward on this important issue," reported Kishan
Kumarsingh, chair of the climate treaty's Subsidiary Body
for Scientific and Technological Advice, who led the
meeting.
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There were strong calls for the establishment of a
financial mechanism to provide financial incentives for
developing countries that voluntarily reduced their
emissions from deforestation. Brazil proposed a
compensation fund that countries could access if they could
prove they had brought deforestation below rates of the
1990s. "Once again Brazil is acting as a protagonist
in presenting an innovative proposal," said
Environment Minister Marina
Silva. Negotiations will continue in Nairobi, Kenya, at
the next meeting of the Conference
of the Parties to the climate treaty.
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California's political leaders last week reached
a "historic agreement" to control greenhouse gas
emissions. The proposed bill was swiftly approved by the
Senate and Assembly this week and commits the state to cut
carbon dioxide emissions back to 1990 levels, a reduction
of around 25 per cent, by the year 2020. Emission limits
and reduction measures will go into effect by 2012, with
penalties for failure to comply. Market mechanisms will be
developed, including carbon credit trading. The bill
requires the California Air
Resources Board to report on greenhouse gas emissions
by the major polluters. In the event of "extraordinary
circumstances", such as a natural disaster or economic
crisis, the governor can bring implementation to a halt for
up to a year.
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"We can now move forward with developing a
market-based system that makes California a world leader in
the effort to reduce carbon emissions," said Governor
Arnold
Schwarzenegger. "We've reached a tipping point
in the fight against global warming," commented
Frances
Beinecke of the Natural
Resources Defense Council. "The whole world has
been watching to see whether California passes this bill,
and now the world will watch as California takes the lead
in developing a clean energy market." "It's
an old saying, but I think it's still true: where goes
California, the rest of the country will follow in another
five or 10 years," commented
Steve Sawyer from Greenpeace.
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The Global
Environment Facility (GEF) will invest in the greening
of South Africa's transport system ahead of the 2010
Fédération
Internationale de Football World Cup. "Well
designed, well run, and sensibly planned public transport
can play a key role in cutting climate change emissions. It
can also help to improve local air quality and bridge
social and economic divides," said
Monique Barbut, GEF chief executive officer. Around
US$11 million has been provisionally allocated to the
project. "We share the South African government's
aspirations on this and agree that the World Cup represents
a great opportunity to lay out a 21st century, sustainable
transport network," she continued.
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The move has been endorsed by leading footballers
Ronaldo Luiz Nazario de Lima and Zinédine
Zidane. "Sub-standard public transport perpetuates
poverty, generates health-threatening polluted air and
contributes to climate change, which affects everyone,
everywhere," they said in a statement. "We both
have personal experience of this as we were both brought up
in communities where poor quality public transport was all
too sadly the norm." The Green
Goal initiative at the 2006 World Cup in Germany
resulted in a drop in private car use, according to a
preliminary evaluation, and "significant achievements
in areas such as energy savings, rainwater harvesting and
waste minimization at stadia," according to
Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment
Programme.
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The World
Bank is urging the international community to
integrate climate concerns in development strategies to
safeguard gains in economic development and poverty
reduction. A new report, Managing Climate Risk -
Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group
Operations, estimates the potential impact on
investments of climate change at one to two per cent of
the portfolio, about US$200 million to $400 million a
year within the World Bank Group and at least US$1
billion for all official development assistance and
concessional lending. The World Bank is committed to
integrating climate risk management at the outset in
project design and into country and sector dialogues and
development strategies and supports the creation of
financing mechanisms for adaptation.
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According to
World Bank environment director Warren Evans,
"adaptation to climate risks needs to be treated as
a major economic and social risk to national economies,
not just as a long-term environment problem. By enhancing
climate risk management, development institutions and
their partner countries will be able to better address
the growing risks from climate change and, at the same
time, make current development investments more resilient
to climate variability and extreme weather events."
Monique Barbut, head of the Global Environment Facility,
commented that "funding for adaptation to climate
change is absolutely critical for developing countries.
The best form of adaptation is mitigation, but we must
also deal with the climate change that the planet is
already signed up to."
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World Water
Week took place in Stockholm, Sweden, August 20-26th.
The theme this year was "Beyond the River - Sharing
Benefits and Responsibilities". A landmark report
released during the event called for a radical new agenda
for agricultural water management. Based on assessment of past
water-management practices, the study was led by the
International Water
Management Institute (IWMI), based in Sri Lanka.
"The last 50 years of water management practices are
no model for the future when it comes to dealing with water
scarcity," said
Frank Rijsberman, IWMI head. "We need radical
change in the institutions and organizations responsible
for managing our earth's water supplies and a vastly
different way of thinking about water
management."
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David Molden at IWMI concludes that "to feed the
growing population and reduce malnourishment, the world has
three choices: expand irrigation by diverting more water to
agriculture and building more dams, at a major cost to the
environment; expand the area under rain-fed agriculture at
the expense of natural areas through massive deforestation
and other habitat destruction; or do more with the water we
already use. We must grow more crop per drop, more meat and
milk per drop, and more fish per drop." The report
does identify areas of innovation that hold hope for the
future, particularly low-cost technologies that facilitate
access to, and use of, water by the rural poor. As long as
health issues are addressed, people can effectively use
urban wastewater as a productive resource. Irrigation could
be reformed and transformed to reduce water wastage and
increase productivity.
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More information
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Other news from World Water Week
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The United Nations Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is considering
tougher environmental guidelines to regulate shrimp
farming operations across Asia. Shrimp farming has been
responsible for the destruction of extensive areas of
mangrove
forest, removing a valuable resource that provides
natural coastal protection. According to
Ben Brown of the Mangrove Action Project,
as much as 90 per cent of Asia's mangrove has been
destroyed by shrimp farming, which is rarely sustainable.
"In Asia, the average intensive shrimp farm survives
only two to five years before serious pollution and disease
problems cause early closures" he said. The industry
has a "get-in-quick, do-it-dirty approach, and it
causes a lot of havoc."
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The guidelines have been developed by a consortium that
includes the Network of
Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific (NACA), whose 17
member-governments have already agreed to the regulations.
FAO adoption will mean the guidelines will become part of
national government policy. Regulation is considered
necessary because the environmental costs of shrimp farming
are borne by the broad community. "There is no
incentive to take account of mangrove costs, because they
are not felt as losses to the private producers, but to the
wider economy," argues Lucy Emerton at the World Conservation Union.
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The latest report on the state of the global ozone
layer in the stratosphere
warns that recovery may be delayed by five to 15 years
beyond earlier forecasts, but the atmosphere is
responding to the effect of the Montreal
Protocol in curbing the release of
ozone-depleting chemicals. The report was prepared by
the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment
Programme. "While these latest projections of
ozone recovery are disappointing, the good news is that
the level of ozone-depleting substances continues to
decline from its 1992-94 peak in the troposphere
and 1990s peak in the stratosphere," commented
Michel
Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General.
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The latest predictions indicate that the ozone over
the Antarctic should recover by the year 2065. Over
middle latitudes, recovery should occur by 2049. The fact
that the decline in stratospheric ozone levels away from
the polar regions observed during the 1990s has not
continued is seen as a response to stable levels of
ozone-depleting gases during the recent period. "The
early signs that the atmosphere is healing demonstrate
that the Montreal Protocol is working. But the delayed
recovery is a warning that we cannot take the ozone layer
for granted and must maintain and accelerate our efforts
to phase out harmful chemicals", said Achim
Steiner, UNEP Executive Director.
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August 20-26th is World Water Week. The
theme this year is "Beyond the River - Sharing
Benefits and Responsibilities".
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The conservation organization WWF has issued a report warning
that a combination of climate change and poor resource
management is leading to water shortages even in the most
developed countries. "At the rhetoric level, it is now
generally accepted in the developed world that water must
be used more efficiently and that water must be made
available again to the environment in sufficient quantity
for natural systems to function," the report states.
Nevertheless, "putting the rhetoric into practice in
the face of habitual practices and intense lobbying by
vested interests has been very difficult."
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In China, parts of the southwest are experiencing the
worst drought in 50 years, according to the state meteorological
bureau. In Chongqing, 7.5
million people lack adequate drinking water and financial
losses have been estimated at US$313 million. Monsoonal
rains in India over recent weeks have generated flooding
across five states, with over 300 people killed and 4.5
million reported homeless. Lives have also been lost in
Pakistan. In Ethiopia, 10,000 people were stranded after a
river overflowed in the south, killing 125 people. In
total, there have been 600 fatalities in this country over
the past two weeks as a result of heavy rainfall and
flooding.
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Injecting carbon under the sea floor could reduce the
risk of leaks, according to a recent study. At 3,000m below
the sea surface, high pressure and low temperature mean
that carbon gas turns into a liquid that is denser than the
surrounding water. Experiments indicate that ice-like
compounds would form in which water molecules
'cage' carbon, trapping the gas within the
sediment. Because of its density, any liquid that does
escape would not rise to the surface. The researchers, from
Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
and Columbia University in the United States, write in the
Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences that "deep-sea sediments at
high pressure and low temperature provide a virtually
unlimited and permanent reservoir for carbon dioxide
captured from fossil fuel combustion." Daniel
Schrag at Harvard's Center for the
Environment, reckons that the process could make
"coal a green fuel."
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Some environmentalists remain sceptical. "We have
real questions about this technology. It is not something
that currently works or is tested," said Chris Miller
at Greenpeace.
"We have a relatively short amount of time to begin
making pretty dramatic reductions in global warming
pollutants." There are also concerns about geological
stability. "The downsides are that nobody has ever
injected into those kinds of formations at those kinds of
depths," said
Ken Caldeira, Stanford
University. "There are engineering hurdles to
overcome and it might not be that cheap,"
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More information
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Background
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Concern that international
carbon trading under the Kyoto Protocol might be
delayed has been allayed with the award by the United Nations Climate Change
Secretariat of a key software contract to Trasys SA, based in Belgium.
The contract will provide the electronic infrastructure
for the International Transaction Log (ITL), which will
link national carbon trading registries. "Awarding
this contract is a significant milestone in finalizing
the systems to make carbon trading under the Kyoto
Protocol a reality", reported Richard Kinley, acting
head of the Secretariat. "We remain on track for
Kyoto countries' systems to link to the ITL and
become fully operational by April 2007."
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The seven states in the northeastern United States
that agreed, last year, to establish an emissions trading
scheme, the Regional
Greenhouse Gas Initiative, have now agreed reduction
targets. The scheme will cap carbon emissions from power
plants at close to current levels from 2009 to 2015, then
reduce them to ten per cent by the year 2019.
"It's a good first step, but the road is pretty
long, and we are going to need substantive greenhouse gas
reductions," said Peter Fusaro from Energy & Environment Capital
Management. Though the limits are "mild, pretty
negligible," he reckons that the agreement could
help force the federal government into action.
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The
Clinton Climate Initiative, which was launched early
August, has formed a partnership with the Large
Cities Climate Leadership Group, chaired by the
Mayor of London, to reduce emissions and improve energy
efficiency in twenty-two of the world's largest cities.
"It no longer makes sense for us to debate whether or
not the Earth is warming at an alarming rate, and it
doesn't make sense for us to sit back and wait for
others to act," said former United States President
Bill
Clinton. "The fate of the planet that our children
and grandchildren will inherit is in our hands." He
stressed that the partnership will take "measurable
steps" towards slowing down global warming.
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The partnership will take a business-oriented approach.
According to London Mayor Ken
Livingston, "there is no bigger task for humanity
than to avert catastrophic climate change. The world's
largest cities can have a major impact on this. Already
they are at the center of developing the technologies and
innovative new practices that provide hope that we can
radically reduce carbon emissions." One of the first
steps the partnership will take is to form a purchasing
consortium that pool the cities' buying power to lower
the price of energy saving products and stimulate
technological development.
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The Secretariat of
the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change is encouraging
indigenous peoples, particularly from Africa, to
participate actively in the next Conference
of the Parties to the climate treaty in Nairobi, Kenya,
in November 2006. Marking the
International Day of the World's Indigenous
Peoples, August 9th,
Richard Kinley, acting head of the Secretariat,
congratulated indigenous peoples on their "continued
progress with strengthening international cooperation on
issues of concern."
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The leaders of the world's indigenous peoples have
called on the United Nations
General Assembly to recognize native people's right
to self-determination and protect them against
discrimination and oppression by approving the United
Nations
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
Victoria
Tauli-Corpuz, chairperson of the Permanent Forum
on Indigenous Issues, reports that "systematic
racism and discrimination is still the lot of many
indigenous people not only in the developing countries, but
also in the richest and most powerful countries."
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi
Annan acknowledges that "much remains to be done
to protect [indigenous peoples] from massive human rights
violations, to alleviate the poverty they face and to
safeguard against many discriminations that, for example,
forces many indigenous girls to drop out of
school."
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An Inuit community
in Canada is installing air conditioners after July
temperatures topped 30°C. Ten air conditioners are
being installed for office workers in the village of
Kuujjuaq in
Quebec, Canada. "These are the times when the far
north has to have air conditioners now to function,"
said Sheila
Watt-Cloutier, International Chair for the
Inuit Circumpolar Conference. "Our Arctic homes
are made to be airtight for the cold and do not
'breathe' well in the heat with this warming
trend."
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Writing in Ambio, Terry Chapin, of
the University of Alaska
Fairbanks, and his co-authors argue that Arctic
nations have the wealth and scientific understanding to
alter the course of global climate change: Arctic nations
"account for about 40 per cent of global carbon
dioxide emissions and, therefore, have a substantial
capacity to reduce the rates of Arctic change." They
argue that there is already enough information to devise
suitable strategies. "We do not need to delay action
until some future time when we will ‘know
enough’ to act," says Chapin. The authors
advance a set of policy recommendations, including
approaches to emissions reductions and the zoning of
increasingly ice-free areas. "A lot of the
recommendations for policy change deal with enhancing the
capacity of northern regions to be flexible and adaptable
to cope with changes, some of which we can predict, and
others of which will be surprises," reports
Chapin.
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A new report warns that rapid global warming poses a
variety of threats to the security of the Asia-Pacific
region. "There is no longer much doubt that the world
is facing a prolonged period of planetary warming,"
conclude authors Alan
Dupont from the Lowy Institute for
International Policy and Graeme
Pearman, a fellow at Monash University.
"Compressed within the space of a single century,
global warming will present far more daunting challenges of
human and biological adaptation" than previous, slower
environmental shifts.
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The report, from the Lowy Institute, based in Sydney,
Australia, identifies sea-level rise as a major threat to
the low-lying islands of the Pacific, heavily urbanized
areas, such as the Yellow and Yangzi deltas in China, the
east coast of Bangladesh, the deltas of Vietnam, Thailand
and Myanmar and parts of the Philippines and Indonesia.
Weather extremes and climate fluctuations could
"refashion" the region's productive
landscapes and affect the incidence of disease. The authors
call for a "fundamental transformation" in our
approach to energy use, avoiding fossil fuels.
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British Prime Minister Tony Blair
and Californian Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger have announced an agreement to work
together to fight global warming that could lay the
foundations for a trans-Atlantic emissions trading system.
They will collaborate on research into cleaner fuels and
technologies. "The environmental and economic
consequences of climate change and our dependency on fossil
fuels compel both California and the United Kingdom to
commit to urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and promote low carbon technologies," according to a
joint statement.
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"We see that there is not great leadership from the
federal government when it comes to protecting the
environment," Schwarzenegger said. "We know that
there is global warming, so we should stop it." Both
parties were, however, eager to dismiss the idea that the
agreement undercuts the
Bush administration's position on the climate
issue. Kristen Hellmer, speaking for the White House Council on
Environmental Quality, described the agreement as a
"wonderful amplification" of last year's
talks between President Bush and the British Prime
Minister.
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Participants at a recent European Science Foundation
meeting have called for a long-term research programme to
develop the "artificial leaf", harnessing the
way in which biological
systems convert solar energy in order to produce
fuels on a commercial scale. The programme will tackle
means of extending current photovoltaic technology to
generate clean fuels directly from solar radiation, the
construction of artificial devices mimicking
photosynthesis and tuning natural systems to produce
fuels such as hydrogen and methanol directly rather than
carbohydrates that require further processing to generate
fuels.
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In the United Kingdom, electronics chain Currys
is to sell solar
photovoltaic panels in selected high street shops.
Announcing the development, Currys said that rising
electricity prices and a better understanding of
environmental issues meant customers were now more open
to purchasing these items. They intend to cut the cost to
almost half that charged by specialist suppliers. Mike
Childs from Friends of
the Earth welcomed the move, but noted that
insulation and double-glazing would be a cheaper starting
point for many households.
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The Amazonian
forest cannot withstand more than two consecutive years
of drought, according to research conducted by the Woods Hole Research Center,
Falmouth, United States. The project was led by Dan
Nepstad, who is based in Belém, Brazil. "We
started thinking about simulated drought experiments back
in 1994, when the Amazon was coming out of a major drought
caused by a severe El
Niño, and the forest almost completely ran out of
water," he explains. There is now increasing concern
that global warming could lead to longer and/or more severe
droughts in the Amazonian
Basin.
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The research involved covering an area of forest the
size of a football pitch with plastic to simulate prolonged
drought. Nepstad reports that the trees survived two years
of drought, by sinking their roots deeper to locate
remaining moisture. "That’s one of the most
fascinating things about the Amazon," he says.
"The east and southeastern parts of the forest
actually go months each year with little or no rain. The
trees survive by tapping soil moisture as far down as 20
metres." But, in year three of the experiment, the
trees began to die, releasing stored carbon into the
atmosphere and accelerating global warming.
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Participants at the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) conference, Living with Climate
Variability and Change, held in Espoo, Finland during
July 2006, have called for "efforts to assemble
disparate knowledge, to identify good practice, and to
assess the value of and give visibility to climate-related
risk management." They are concerned that there is a
"lack of awareness of climate-related risk management
opportunities among numerous communities that would
benefit."
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Opening the meeting, Michel
Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General, drew attention to the
particular
needs of the developing nations, where the
"concept of climate risk might not even be
considered." "In the developing and the
Least-Developed Countries," he continued, "there
is often no established or an insufficient mechanism for
data collection and reporting and, accordingly,
insufficient reliable data on which to base a rational
attempt at risk assessment." The conference was
cosponsored by the Finnish
Meteorological Institute and the International Research Institute
for Climate and Society.
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The British government may cap each citizen's
carbon emissions and permit individuals to trade carbon
credits gained by reducing their emissions below the
personal limit. "Imagine a country where carbon
becomes a new currency," said Environment Secretary
David
Miliband introducing a study of the proposal.
"We carry bank cards that store both pounds and
carbon points. When we buy electricity, gas and fuel, we
use our carbon points, as well as pounds."
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The scheme would cover energy use through electricity,
gas, petrol and air travel. "People on low incomes
are likely to benefit as they will be able to sell their
excess allowances," Miliband said. "People on
higher incomes tend to have higher carbon emissions due
to higher car ownership and usage, air travel and
tourism, and larger homes." The personal allowance
is one of a number of schemes the government is
considering to involve the public in carbon
reduction.
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The United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that action is
needed to conserve Pacific mangroves. As a result of
climate change and other stresses, some Pacific islands
could see half their mangroves lost by the end of the
century. The link between the mangrove wetlands and other
coastal ecosystems and their contribution to near-shore
fisheries production make it "critical for Pacific
Island governments and local communities to act now to
ensure the sustainable provision of mangrove ecosystem
services," says Kitty Simonds of the Western Pacific Regional
Fishery Management Council.
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According to Achim
Steiner, UNEP Executive Director, "there are many
compelling reasons for fighting climate change. The threats
to mangroves in the Pacific, and by inference across other
low-lying parts of the tropics, underline yet another
reason to act" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
But," he continued, "there is also an urgent need
to help vulnerable communities adapt to the sea level rise
which is already underway." Vainuupo Jungblut at the
Secretariat of the Pacific
Regional Environment Programme reckons that "the
challenge for the region is to implement appropriate and
affordable adaptation measures with limited
resources."
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Leading scientists and policy experts have signed a
declaration calling for a new international coordinating
mechanism to advise governments on protecting biodiversity.
They argue that the gap between biodiversity science and
public policy must be closed as a matter of urgency and
that the global scientific community should be more
strongly organized and integrated.
Bob Watson, chief scientist at the World Bank, reckons that
biodiversity needs the equivalent of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. "It is a wonderful example of
academics working with politicians," he said. The
Convention on Biological Diversity does not have the
"structural means to mobilize the expertise of a large
scientific community that spans a wide range of
disciplines," according to the declaration.
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Last year, the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment warned that the present rate of species loss
may be one thousand times faster than at any time in
history. "It is the bits of biodiversity acting
together that creates the ecological goods and services
that we depend on for life," according to Georgina
Mace at the Institute of
Zoology in London, United Kingdom. "For the sake
of the planet," Watson concludes, "the
biodiversity science community has to create a way to get
organized, to coordinate its work across disciplines, and
together with one clear voice advise governments on steps
to halt the potentially catastrophic loss of species
already occurring." The Consultative Process Towards
an International Mechanism of Scientific Expertise on
Biodiversity (IMOSEB)
has been established to produce recommendations for such a
process.
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More information
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Background
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The annual Group of Eight (G8) Summit took place in St
Petersburg, Russia, July 15-17th 2006. The G8 leaders approved
a statement that
recognized a split within the group on nuclear energy and
climate change as "G8 members pursue different ways
to achieve energy security and the goals of climate
protection." The statement said that those who
favour the nuclear response, six of the eight members,
see it as a key to energy security and slowing global
warming.
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Environmental groups were not happy with the
endorsement, albeit qualified, of the nuclear option.
"Spreading nuclear reactors around the planet will
pave the way for new terrorist threats and new potential
nuclear armed states," warned the GRACE Policy
Institute. Alice
Slater of the GRACE Policy Institute said that it was
time to focus on the green renewable sources of energy.
"People don't get told the story that these
things are possible, that the sun, water and wind can
work," she said. Graham Saul at
Oil Change
International took issue with the G8 prediction of a
massive increase in demand for fossil fuels: "The G8
can't fight climate change and subsidize an expansion
of fossil fuels at the same time. This is a complete
contradiction and a dramatic failure of leadership on the
part of the G8."
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The World Heritage
Committee (WHC) has adopted a strategy in response to
the threat that climate change brings to sites such as
Mount
Everest and the Great
Barrier Reef. Sites at risk will be added to the
List of World
Heritage in Danger on a case by case basis. There will
be a study of alternatives to the Danger List for these
sites. Environmentalists were frustrated by what they saw
as a conservative stance. They had lobbied for a strong
statement on the need to reduce emissions and immediate
listing of threatened sites such as Mount Everest.
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"We are extremely angry that the World Heritage
Committee has not taken any meaningful action to protect
some of the most important sites on Earth from climate
change," said Peter Roderick of
the Climate Justice
Programme. "They are good at drawing up
wonderfully drafted documents, but the idea of actually
doing anything seems to pose a problem." WHC
chairperson Ina Marciulionyte explained that "this is
the start of a long process, which is important in that it
helps draw attention to a far reaching issue. It is our
duty to do whatever we can to protect World Heritage in
keeping with our responsibility to implement the World
Heritage Convention. This is what we are trying to do by
initiating more studies and sharing experience."
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The Pacific island of Vanuatu is the
happiest nation on earth, according to the Happy Planet
Index. The index, developed by the new economics
foundation (nef), is based on consumption
levels, life expectancy and happiness, rather than
measurements of national economic wealth. "It is clear
that no single nation listed in the index has got
everything right," said Nic Marks from nef, "but
it does reveal patterns that show how we might better
achieve long and happy lives for all while living within
our environmental means."
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nef is calling for the adoption of a global manifesto
for a happier planet. Recommendations include eradicating
extreme poverty and hunger, recognizing the contribution of
individuals and unpaid work and ensuring economic policies
stay within environmental limits. According to Simon
Bullock of Friends of the
Earth, "the current crude focus on Gross
Domestic Product is outdated, destructive and
doesn't deliver a better quality of life."
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In the run-up to the Group of Eight (G8)
Summit in St Petersburg, Russia, British Prime
Minister Tony Blair
announced that he would like to see the G8 expanded to 13
nations, taking in China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South
Africa. He considers that this is essential if global
agreement is to be reached on climate change, trade and
other issues. There is no way we can deal with climate
change unless we get an agreement that binds in the
United States, China and India," he said. The
British government recently published plans to bring the
developing nations into a more forward role in the
climate negotiations.
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Jacques
Chirac, the French President, called on the G8
members to "set an example by respecting their
commitments" under the Kyoto
Protocol. "If we continue on our current course,
increased consumption of fossil fuels will be disastrous
for the environment and climate," he warned. The
WorldWide Fund for Nature urged the G8 to adopt a
"Marshall
Plan" to treat climate change and energy
security in one concerted effort. G8 legislators also
underlined the need for a joint response. "If we do
not successfully address both, we risk undermining our
development, economic and security goals," they said
in a statement released at a meeting organized by Global
Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment
(GLOBE) International. Responding to fears that climate
would drop down the agenda in St Petersburg, European
Commission President Jose
Manuel Barroso said that G8 members would use the
Summit to "to renew the commitments we made together
last year on climate change."
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Background
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The European
Parliament is supporting proposals for an emissions
trading scheme for air travel. Despite the air
industry's substantial contribution to global warming,
the Kyoto
Protocol exempted the sector from emissions reductions
targets in the expectation, that has not been realised,
that a voluntary scheme would be established. The European
initiative will, it is hoped, curb the growth in emissions
from the region's aircraft, which stood at 85 per cent
between 1994 and 2004. During its initial phase, the air
travel scheme will run alongside the existing
European emission trading scheme.
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The industry response to the proposed scheme has been
mixed. British
Airways supports an emissions trading scheme,
preferring this approach to, for example, a tax on fuel.
Sylviane Lust, director general of the International Airline Carrier
Association, claims, however, that "the
recommendation to set up a separate... scheme for aviation
is totally unrealistic." Jos Dings of the European Federation
for Transport and Environment welcomed the development.
"It is high time Europe got its head out of the
clouds, got the aviation sector in line with other
polluters and started demanding emissions cuts," he
said.
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Background
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The increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air is
making the oceans more acidic. According to a new report
from the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder in the
United States, the trend is "dramatically altering
ocean chemistry and threatening corals and other marine
organisms that secrete skeletal structures."
Ken Caldeira from Stanford
University reported that the ocean is more acid than it
has been for "many millions of years." "What
we're doing in the next decade will affect our oceans
for millions of years," he said. "Carbon dioxide
levels are going up extremely rapidly, and it's
overwhelming our marine systems."
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Christopher Langdon, from the University of Miami, has
shown that corals grew half as fast in aquaria when exposed
to carbon dioxide levels that might prevail by the middle
of the present century. He fears that corals might not be
able to survive by the end of the century. "These
organisms probably don't have the adaptive ability to
respond to this new onslaught," he warns. John
Guinotte at the Marine
Conservation Biology Institute in Redmond is concerned
that plankton and marine snails may suffer. "These are
groups everyone depends on, and if their numbers go down,
there are going to be reverberations throughout the food
chain," he said. "When I see marine snails'
shells dissolving while they're alive, that's
spooky."
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A recent study suggests that salps,
transparent jellyfish-like creatures, may be carrying
substantial amounts of carbon down into the ocean,
limiting the rise in atmospheric concentrations.
"Salps swim, feed, and produce waste
continuously," according to
Laurence Madin of Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution in the United States. "They take in
small packages of carbon and make them into big packages
that sink fast."
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In field studies in the Mid-Atlantic
Bight, the researchers found that one species, Salpa
aspera, multiplied into dense swarms that lasted for
months. One swarm covered 100,000 square kilometres,
consuming up to 74 per cent of microscopic
carbon-containing plants from the surface water each day.
Sinking waste then took up to 4,000 tons of carbon a day
down to deep water.
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Background
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Poverty in Africa can be made history if the
continent's resources are harnessed effectively, fairly
and sustainably, according to Africa
Environment Outlook-2, a report from the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP). It is argued that the region is only
realizing a fraction of its nature-based economic
potential, from freshwater to forests and from minerals to
the marine environment. Speaking for UNEP, Executive
Director Adam
Steiner, said that "the report challenges the myth
that Africa is poor. Indeed, it points out that its vast
natural wealth can, if sensitively, sustainably and
creatively managed, be the basis for an African renaissance
- a renaissance that meets and goes beyond the
internationally agreed Millennium Development
Goals. But this is not inevitable and, as [the report]
points out, African nations face stark
choices."
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The report presents a series
of scenarios for the future, illustrating the choices
that have to be made. If food production is purely driven
by market forces, land degradation rates could rise to up
to 30,000 hectares a year. The rapid intensification of
farming will lead to a drastic decline in forest cover.
Under a more optimistic projection, "The Great
Transition", the level of land degradation declines
and forest cover increases. The area under agriculture
increases by 10 per cent, mostly due to government-held
land being put into production. The report's
conclusions were echoed by the
Madagascar Declaration, which resulted from a conference,
Defying Nature’s End: The African Context, held
in Antananarivo, Madagascar. The Declaration calls for
establishing and expanding markets for natural resources,
such as ecotourism and carbon trading.
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The Japanese government has announced that all
vehicles must run on a mix of ethanol
and regular gasoline by the year 2030. All new cars must
be able to run on a blend of ten per cent ethanol and 90
per cent gasoline by 2010. According to Takeshi Sekiya,
from the Environment
Ministry, "the main goal is to counter global
warming. Adopting the new technology is not that
difficult." Japan also imports nearly all its oil
and would like to implement alternative energy sources.
The ministry will increase production of ethanol fuel on
the island of Miyako,
where there is an abundant supply of sugar cane. In
another initiative, Japan plans to bury 200 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2020.
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The Bush Administration in the United States has
announced a US$170 million support programme for public
and private partnerships to make solar energy, in the
form of photovoltaic
cell technology, more competitive with conventional
electricity production. "We will be asking the
winning partnerships to focus their work on new
manufacturing techniques as well as new component designs
that will allow us to bring down the cost of producing
photovoltaic fuel cells as quickly as possible,"
said Energy Secretary Sam
Bodman. The aim of the broader Solar
America Initiative, of which the new programme is a
part, is to cut photovoltaic costs from 13-22 cents a
kilowatt to 9-18 cents a kilowatt by 2010.
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British Prime Minister Tony Blair
has set a one-year deadline for a new global agreement on
climate change. "We need to begin to agree a framework
that the major players - United States, China, India and
Europe - buy into and has at its heart a goal to stabilise
temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. And we need
to accelerate discussions - we can't take the five
years it took Kyoto took to negotiate," he said. The
United Kingdom has recently appointed a climate
'ambassador',
John Ashton. The United States does not rule out
joining a successor to the Kyoto
Protocol, according to chief climate negotiator,
Harlan
Watson. It would, though, require "substantial
changes in the current rules of the game," he
commented.
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Canada will join the
Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and
Climate, says Prime Minister Stephen
Harper. It was Canada's "desire to participate
in the AP-6 process, along with a number of other
processes," he said when meeting with Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro
Koizumi. Japan sees the Asia-Pacific Partnership as
complementing, not replacing, the Kyoto process. "We
are trying to promote the Kyoto Protocol," a senior
Japanese official said. "We do hope that Canada also
will remain committed."
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The European Union and the United States have agreed
to "act with resolve and urgency to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions," at an annual
summit held in Vienna, Austria. Though the
contentious issue of the Kyoto Protocol was
side-stepped, a new EU-US High Level Dialogue on Climate
Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development will hold
its first meeting this autumn in Finland. Through strategic
cooperation, the agreement aims to "accelerate
investment in cleaner, more efficient use of fossil sources
and renewable sources in order to cut air pollution harmful
to human health and natural resources, and reducing
greenhouse gases associated with the serious long-term
challenge of global climate change." EU President
Manuel Barroso reported that the Dialogue will
"address ways to get cost-effective emission cuts,
development and employment of new technologies, efficiency
and conservation, renewable fuels and other environmental
issues such as biodiversity."
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The High Level Dialogue will advance the
G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action for Climate Change, Clean
Energy and Sustainable Development. Topics to be covered
include experience with different market-based mechanisms,
advancing the development and deployment of existing and
transformational technologies, producing energy with lower
emissions, efficiency and conservation, renewable fuels,
clean diesel, capture of methane, lower emitting
agricultural operations and energy production and
distribution systems. US President
George Bush commented that he "kind of startled my
country when, in my State of the Union, I said we're
hooked on oil and we need to get off oil. That seemed
counterintuitive for some people to hear a Texan say. But
the truth of the matter is, we got to diversify away from
oil. And the best way to do it is through new
technologies."
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A United Nations conference, held in Tunis,
Algeria, during June 2006, has concluded that better
management and a wider spreading of scientific knowledge
are essential in the fight against desertification. The
Tunis Declaration, resulting from the conference The
Future of the Drylands, which was attended by 300
scientists, calls on governments to "place
combatting desertification and development of drylands as
a major priority and to create an enabling
environment." Furthermore, governments and
multilateral environmental agreements should "use
sound scientific knowledge to formulate and implement
policies, laws, regulations and action programmes
vis-a-vis environmental issues stressing integrated
management of natural resources and conservation
practices."
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The Tunis Declaration underlines the role of
scientists in disseminating research results and making
them available "to decision-makers and local dryland
communities so that research can help shape sound
policies and good governance as well as education on an
interactive basis for sustainable dryland management and
improved livelihoods." It identifies the
preservation of cultural and biological diversity,
management of water resources and the identification of
sustainable livelihoods for dryland inhabitants as
critical issues. "Drylands do have a future,"
said Walter Erdelen of the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization, as the meeting
ended. They should not "be neglected as remote or
peripheral areas or considered as marginal with respect
to their economic productivity," he warned.
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A new project will bring high quality public
transport to three of the most polluted cities in the
world. The project was announced at the World Urban Forum III in
Vancouver, Canada. Concepción,
Chile, Guatemala
City and Panama City
in Central America will see new modern bus networks, cycle
ways and pedestrianization schemes in a bid to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100,000 tonnes a year.
A new information network, NESTLAC, will link
these cities to others in the region, promoting
cooperation.
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Achim
Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), commented that "the urban
environment is inextricably intertwined with the rural one
and inextricably linked with the way local, regional and
global natural resources are soundly and sustainably
managed. So it is vital that we get cities right if we are
to meet the internationally agreed development goals, if we
are to deal with such pressing global issues as climate
change." The project is being funded by the Global Environmental Facility
and will be managed through the UNEP's Risø Centre.
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The science academies of 12 nations have urged
political leaders not to neglect climate change during
energy security talks at the G8 Summit in July 2006. They
cite climate change, sharply rising and fluctuating oil and
gas prices, providing fuels to the developing world,
inefficient and wasteful use of energy, and a geographical
mismatch between energy sources and users as "very
serious difficulties related to sustainability and security
of energy." "If energy sustainability and
security fail, the primary human development goals cannot
be achieved," they conclude.
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The academies warn that climate change considerations
could get lost as nations concentrate on securing energy
supplies. "One year on from the UK
Gleneagles Summit, where the G8 committed to
taking action on climate change, this crucial issue must
not be allowed to fall by the wayside," said Martin
Rees, president of the Royal Society. "The
G8 must demonstrate that this was a serious pledge by
integrating climate concerns with their discussions
regarding security of supply."
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William
Bradshaw and Christina Holzapfel
at the University
of Oregon in Eugene in the United States report that
some species of animals are adopting new patterns of
behaviour to cope with global warming as rapid climate
changes over the past several decades lead to heritable,
genetic changes. "Over the past 40 years, animal
species have been extending their range toward the poles
and populations have been migrating, developing or
reproducing earlier," according to Bradshaw.
Red
squirrels in Canada are reproducing earlier in the
year and German
blackcap birds are arriving earlier at nesting
sites.
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Bradshaw attributes the adaptation to phenotypic
plasticity, the ability of animals to modify their
behaviour, morphology or physiology as their environment
changes. "Small animals with short life cycles and
large population sizes will probably adapt to longer
growing seasons and be able to persist," said
Bradshaw. "However, populations of many large
animals with longer life cycles and smaller population
sizes will experience a decline in population size or be
replaced by more southern species." Though
behavioural adaptation to changes in season onset and
duration are occurring, the researchers found no evidence
of genetic changes, such as increased heat tolerance,
directly related to higher seasonal temperatures rather
than season length.
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More than 200 green energy projects have been
approved under the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) since late 2004, and 600
more are in the pipeline, according to the Climate
Change Secretariat. By 2012, the CDM could generate one
billion tonnes of emissions reductions. This
"corresponds to the present (annual) emissions of
Spain and the United Kingdom combined," says the
Secretariat.
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There is concern, though, about the lop-sided
development of the programme. "Whilst the mechanism is
seeing exponential growth, the growth is still too unevenly
distributed," according to
Richard Kinley, Secretariat head. There have been few
projects in Africa, for example. To date, The Netherlands,
Britain and Japan have been the leading investors in the
CDM.
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The world's deserts are facing dramatic changes
as a result of climate change, water demands, tourism and
salt contamination, according the World Deserts
Outlook, published by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) on World Environment
Day, 5th June. "Across the planet, poverty,
unsustainable land management and climate change are
turning drylands into deserts, and desertification in turn
exacerbates and leads to poverty," said United Nations
Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
"There is also mounting evidence that dryland
degradation and competition over increasingly scarce
resources can bring communities into conflict," he
continued. The report argues that global and regional
instability is altering desert landscapes as more military
training grounds, prisons and refugee holding stations are
built.
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UNEP launched a guide on tourism and deserts on the same
day. "The guide seeks to promote desert tourism as a
leading source of sustainable development in the countries
concerned," said UNEP's
Monique Barbut. "With careful planning, tour
operators can help mitigate the seasonal nature of desert
tourism by generating positive social, economic, and
environmental impacts that will offer year-round benefits
for the communities living in desert destinations."
The guide notes that desert tourism is growing quickly but
that the tolerance threshold for visitor numbers in the
fragile desert ecosystems is not high.
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An American team of researchers has developed a new
process for studying complex drylands and desert
landscapes. The team was led by Debra Peters, a
research scientist at the United States Department of
Agriculture's
Agricultural Research Service, at the Jornada Experimental Range
in southern New Mexico, where the research was conducted.
"Previously we looked at small areas and used that
information to make guesses about the large area, to
extrapolate to the big area, and that doesn't work very
well when things are really complex and so then we shifted
to say, really, the complexity is what's interesting
and important," reported Peters.
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The research has been based on a six-step approach in
order to give full weight to the myriad, complex influences
on the system: "look up" to assess the broad
scale; "look back" in time to determine the role
of past events on the present landscape; "look
around" to consider adjacent spaces and the influence
of wind, water and animals as connecting transport vectors;
"look down" to determine fine-scale properties
and processes of the landscape; then integrate the
information from broad scale to fine scale to determine the
most important influences; and, finally, "look
forward" in time to the effects of variable
environmental factors from the current landscape to the
future.
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Construction has begun on what it is claimed will
be the world's largest solar power plant. The power
plant is located near Serpa,
200km south of Lisbon, in Portugal's Alentejo
region. Generating eleven megawatts of electricity,
it will consist of 52,000 photovoltaic modules on a
60-hectare hillside. The plant will use PowerLight's
PowerTracker technology so that the photovoltaic
modules follow the sun.
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According to Piero Dal Maso, of the renewable energy
company Catavento,
the plant "should provide energy enough for 8,000
homes. It will save 30,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide
emissions, so that is probably around one per cent of
domestic consumption of Portugal." An even larger
solar power station has been proposed for the same
region. Visible from space, that installation could
generate 116 megawatts of electricity.
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A report on the 3
Country Energy Efficiency (3CEE) Project concludes
that China, India and Brazil will more than double their
energy use and greenhouse gas emissions within a
generation if energy efficiency efforts are not
successful. In contrast, "improving energy
efficiency for existing buildings and other
infrastructure could cut current energy consumption by 25
per cent or more in India, China and Brazil, amounting to
millions of tons in reduced greenhouse gas emissions and
hundreds of millions of dollars in energy savings,"
according to Robert Taylor, World Bank energy specialist
and project leader. The project is a joint initiative of
the World Bank, the
United Nations
Environment Programme and partners in Brazil, China
and India.
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Since 2001, the 3CEE Project has worked to promote
energy efficiency projects in the target nations by
easing typical investment requirements of financial
institutions. "Many energy efficiency projects
quickly pay for themselves, with typical returns on
investment of 20-40 per cent," says Chandra
Govindarajalu, World Bank environment specialist.
"Despite the demonstrated benefits, though,
companies often cite other, more immediate investment and
borrowing priorities", he continued.
"Meanwhile, commercial banks in these countries are
generally unfamiliar with financing projects designed to
achieve cost savings, rather than develop new product
lines or other tangible assets." The way forward is
to foster corporate awareness, support catalyst energy
efficiency practitioners and enlighten commercial banks
to ease access to local financing for such projects.
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The European
Commission has launched a campaign to encourage
Europeans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Amongst other
things, the campaign, You Control Climate
Change, promotes 50
practical tips aimed at halting climate change, ranging
from turning off lights to not using cars. School children
are being asked to sign a pledge to reduce their emissions
and then monitor their progress.
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Noting that action against climate change is a priority
for the European Commission, President
Jose Manuel Barroso said that the "campaign
complements and reinforces our political and legislative
efforts. It makes clear to which extent we all are
responsible for climate change and what individuals can and
need to do to limit this threat." Every European
citizen is responsible for eleven tons of greenhouse gas
emissions a year.
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China has announced that it has reduced the rate of
desertification. The rate has dropped from about 10,400
square km a year towards the end of the 20th century to
3,000 square km a year at present. The Chinese government
admits, however, that the problem remains serious.
"Disadvantageous climatic reasons, especially the
influence of drought on speeding up desertification, cannot
be underestimated," said Zhu
Lieke of the State
Forestry Administration. "Over-planting,
over-grazing and over-use of water are also issues yet to
be totally resolved."
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It has been estimated that desertification affects
around 27 per cent of China's territory and causes
economic losses of US$6.75 billion a year, afflicting
around 400 million people. The Chinese government is
investing US$250 million a year in combating the problem.
It is planned that, by 2020, anti-desertification schemes
will recover half of all land destroyed by desertification.
A 5,700km green
wall is being built from Beijing through to Inner
Mongolia to protect lands degraded by human activity.
Domestic animals are being banned from fragile soils and
efforts are being made to improve irrigation. Tree fences
and grass belts are being used to keep blown sand off oases
and farmlands.
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The
Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I
Parties under the Kyoto
Protocol met in Bonn, Germany from 17-25th May. This
body focuses on further measures to be taken by
industrialized countries for the period after 2012 when the
first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends.
Delegates agreed to a roadmap to set new targets beyond
2012, but with no timetable for decisions on the level of
the reductions. "This [agreement] makes clear... that
the outcome of this process will be a new set of
quantitative caps," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, who
is leading the process. "This is a new phase in the
life of the Protocol."
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The post-2012 view will have an economic and scientific
underpinning, based on the forthcoming
Stern Review on the economics of climate change and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 review of
climate science.
Richard Kinley, acting head of the climate
treaty secretariat said: "Developing countries,
which will be hit hardest by climate change, are pushing
for rapid agreement on deeper emission cuts. This is the
message we have also been hearing from business leaders
meeting here in Bonn, who have underlined the importance of
a speedy process from their perspective. Obviously, the
carbon market needs clear signals."
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Fiji has been
selected as the pilot country for a series of projects
that will help the tourist sector respond to the threat
of climate change. "Addressing the impact of climate
change on Small Island Developing States has become a
priority, given the heavy dependence of their economies
on tourism, their high level of vulnerability and their
relatively low adaptive capacity," said Programme
Officer
Gabor Vereczi in the
Sustainable Development of Tourism Department of the
United Nations
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). "Basic
adaptation measures, such as early warning systems and
preparedness for cyclones, or the better use of climate
information provided by national meteorological services
can make a huge difference in preventing and mitigating
climate-related risks and hazards," he
continued.
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Napolioni Masirewa of the
Fijian Ministry of Tourism said the work should
"provide much needed support to develop a risk
management and response strategy for tourism to cope with
the adverse impacts of climate change. We hope it will
reduce the vulnerability of the tourism sector, and in
doing so enhance the sustainability of the natural
resources and the quality of life of the people of
Fiji." The projects will be coordinated by the UNWTO
with the United Nations
Environment Programme and the United Nations Development
Programme. They are financed by the Global Environment Facility. A
conference on
Building Tourism Resilience in Small Island Developing
States will be held in Nassau in the Bahamas 7-9th
June 2006.
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An Australian government report has concluded that
global warming could be occurring faster than previously
thought and could exceed previous predictions. "The
impacts of a changing climate are beginning to
emerge," according to the report, Stronger Evidence
But New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005.
"High temperature extremes, such as the August 2003
heatwave in central Europe that had severe impacts on human
health, are becoming more common," it observes. The
report was launched by Environment Minister
Ian Campbell. He also announced that Australia was on
target to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets of 108
per cent of 1990 emissions by 2012 under the Kyoto
Protocol, which Australia has not ratified.
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A team of European scientists warns that climate models
may have underestimated the extent of global warming as an
important feedback may have not been given due weight. As
the planet warms, additional carbon is released from
decomposing soils and from the oceans. Estimating the
effect from ice core evidence, the team concludes that it
could boost the rise in global temperature by between 15
and 78 per cent. According to Marten
Scheffer of Wageningen University in
the Netherlands, "although there are still significant
uncertainties, our simple data-based approach is consistent
with the latest climate-carbon cycle models, which suggest
that global warming will be accelerated by the effects of
climate change on the rate of carbon dioxide
increase."
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In a new report, British charity Christian Aid claims
that a "staggering 182 million people in sub-Saharan
Africa alone could die of disease directly attributable to
climate change by the end of the century." According
to John
Houghton, former co-chair of the science working group
of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "this
report exposes clearly and starkly the devastating impact
that human-induced climate change will have on many of the
world's poorest people."
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The Christian Aid report concludes that "climate
change is taking place and will inevitably continue."
"Poor people will take the brunt, so we are calling on
rich countries to help them adjust as the seas rise, the
deserts expand, and floods and hurricanes become more
frequent and intense." Warren Evans,
environment head at the World Bank,
said last week that "as a development institution we
have to focus on the fact that millions of people will
suffer from climate change. The last
G8 pushed African development but didn't focus on
the impact of climate change on Africa," he continued.
"We need to catch up on our understanding of
that."
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The latest
round of negotiations on implementation of the United
Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) began
on May 15th in Bonn, Germany. The meeting launched with a
two-day
Dialogue on the way forward post-Kyoto, following the
commitment made at the last Conference of the Parties
to the climate treaty. "I don't think anyone
expects any breakthroughs in Bonn but it will be the start
of what could prove to be some very useful
discussions," said Elliot
Diringer of the Pew Centre on Climate
Change. Talks then continued on implementation of the
Kyoto
Protocol.
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Speaking at the talks,
Richard Kinley, acting head of the UNFCCC
Secretariat, warned that transport is "the big
problem" in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
"The growth... is really quite worrisome," he
said. "Clearly much more concerted action is
necessary." While he felt that progress was being made
in some areas, such as the energy sector, he was
disappointed that a number of reports on progress in
implementing the Kyoto Protocol were overdue. He reported
that the Bonn meeting was placing "much emphasis... on
the promotion of economic incentives to promote action to
reduce emissions - for both industrialized and developing
countries."
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A movie documentary about global warming, An Inconvenient
Truth, featuring former United States Vice President
Al
Gore had its premiere in Hollywood May 16th. The film
mixes an account of climate science with the story of
Gore's personal crusade to reverse global warming.
Movie critic
Kirk Honeycutt considers the film a success, meeting
its goal of bringing "to a much larger audience...
Al Gore's fascinating multimedia presentation of the
facts and issues."
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That same week, the Competitive Enterprise
Institute (CEI) launched two television ads in the
United States that present the sceptics' case on
global warming. "The campaign to limit carbon
dioxide emissions is the single most important regulatory
issue today," said Marlo
Lewis, a CEI senior fellow. "It is nothing short
of an attempt to suppress energy use, which in turn would
be economically devastating - all to avert an alleged
catastrophe whose scientific basis is dubious."
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The
Climate Alliance of European Cities with Indigenous
Rainforest Peoples has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by ten per cent every five years. The long-term
strategy will result in a halving of emissions below the
1990 baseline by 2030. Climate Alliance cities and
municipalities will cut emissions through energy
conservation and efficiency measures and the use of
renewable energy sources. They are also committed to
avoiding procuring tropical timber derived from
destructive logging and helping indigenous partners to
conserve the rainforests.
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"The new target... extends far beyond the year
2010, but also permits short-term monitoring of
performance," reported
Joachim Lorenz, a Munich city councillor. "It
allows local authorities who are only just starting their
climate protection activities to pursue concrete
quantitative goals," he continued. The goal was
announced at the 14th International Climate Alliance
Annual Conference, held 4-6th May in Vienna, Austria. At
the meeting, participants from across Europe exchanged
experience and discussed strategies, measures and
barriers affecting climate protection at the local
level.
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China is to build an eco-city, Dongtan,
near Shanghai. With energy from wind turbines, biofuels and
recycled organic waste, managed by a system
designed by Arup Urban
Design and the University of East Anglia,
the aim is to generate zero carbon emissions and reduce
average energy demands by two-thirds through the city
layout, energy infrastructure and building design. "We
don't want to replicate a European city in China, or
create an alienating futuristic environment," says
Braulio Morera of Arup. "We want to reinterpret a
Chinese city - and Chinese urban lifestyle - for the 21st
century. Bicycles will be a major feature, as will boats,
but the bikes will be powered by renewables, and the boats
by hydrogen."
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China increased its carbon emissions by a third between
1992 and 2002, according to the annual
Little Green Data Book, published by the World Bank.
The World Bank's
Steen Jorgensen blames inefficient investment in power
generation and warns that it will be difficult for a
country such as China to switch to clean technology.
"They can't afford to take [the old, heavily
polluting power plants] out of commission to repair them
because basically, if you don't have power for even
three months, that has huge economic costs," he
said.
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A new study suggests that conflicting influences on
regional climate are generating substantial impacts in
South Asia. "It appears that the whole tropical region
in this area is being pulled in different directions,"
reports Veerabhadran (Ram)
Ramanathan, director of the Center for Clouds, Chemistry and
Climate at Scripps
Institution of Oceanography. "The observed trend
of reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface,
with compensating solar heating aloft from the pollution,
also called the ‘brown haze,’ appears to be
masking the greenhouse warming in the northern Indian
Ocean, while the greenhouse warming continues unabated in
the southern Indian Ocean," he continued. "We are
starting to see that the air pollution affects sunlight and
is potentially having a major disruption of the rain
patterns, with some regions getting more and some
less."
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Research by Tim Garrett and
Chuanfeng
Zhao of the University
of Utah, has shown that the Arctic haze
is heightening the effect of greenhouse warming.
"Particulate pollution from factories and cars can be
transported long distances to the Arctic, where it changes
clouds so that they become more effective blankets,
trapping more heat and further aggravating climate
warming," said Garrett. The effect is most pronounced
in the winter when there is no sunlight.
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The World
Bank has announced a new project to promote clean
energy in developing countries, the development of an
Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development.
Over the next two years, World Bank staff will consider
technology options, analyze the impact of climate change
on developing countries and make specific programme
proposals. At present, it is not clear how the programmes
will be financed, though a number of funding schemes have
been proposed. A grant may be created to help developing
countries cut the cost of buying new high-efficiency
energy technology and infrastructure. Another suggestion
is that the gains from more efficient production from
upgraded power plants could repay the loans that funded
the overhaul.
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The plan was criticized during discussions at the
Development Committee session that ultimately
approved the project. Colombian finance minister Alberto
Carrasquilla, said that some of his colleagues
"find the [project] to be biased toward the
development of alternative, renewable sources of energy
not yet commercially viable while neglecting the bigger
picture of aiming for cleaner, more efficient traditional
energy sources."
Agnes van Ardenne, Dutch development minister, argued
that the project primarily targets middle-income
countries and that she would have preferred an
"energy for all" initiative covering the
millions who have no access at all to electricity.
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Chinese scientists have shown that climate change is
having a serious impact on the Qinghai-Tibet
plateau, known as the "roof of the world".
According to Dong Guangrong of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, the glacier on the plateau is
shrinking at a rate of seven per cent a year. He calls for
world attention to the environmental deterioration caused
by global warming in this area. Analysis of China's 681
weather station records confirms a regional warming trend
of 0.9 degrees Celsius over the past 20 years.
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A new study has revealed a weakening of the Walker
Circulation, the equatorial flow of air that is linked
to the occurrence of El Niño and La
Niña events. The trend has occurred since the
1800s and amounts to a reduction in strength of 3.5 per
cent. It has accelerated over the past 50 years. Though the
trend is not large, "the Walker circulation is
fundamental to climate across the globe," according to
research leader Gabriel
Vecchi of the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research in the United
States.
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The United States government has made available, on
request, a confidential draft of part of the Fourth Assessment
Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which is not due to be formally
published until 2007. The United States Climate Change
Science Programme (CCSP) made the document freely
available as it wanted as many experts and stakeholders as
possible to comment on the draft report from the physical
science working group. The IPCC Assessments are prepared
and reviewed by hundreds of scientists and policy analysts
but protocol dictates that the evolving text remains
confidential until finally approved in February
2007.
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The current draft, as released by the CCSP, reports that
"there is widespread evidence of anthropogenic warming
of the climate system in temperature observations taken at
the surface, in the free atmosphere and in the
oceans." It concludes that "it is very likely
that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of
the observed global warming over the past 50 years."
IPCC Chair, Rajendra
Pachauri, was reported to have been unaware of the plan
to publish the draft report. The IPCC has stressed that the
current text is subject to change as the review process
continues.
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As the
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
Climate (AP6) held a working meeting in California,
Canada announced its support for the pact.
"We've been looking at the Asia-Pacific
Partnership for a number of months now because the key
principles around [it] are very much in line with where
our government wants to go," said Environment
Minister Rona
Ambrose, citing the involvement of China and India as
an example. John Bennett of the Sierra Club responded
that "Canada is being enthusiastic about a
meaningless public relations stunt by the United States
government when it should be talking about the importance
of working... on a programme that has real
targets."
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The aim of the California meeting of the AP6 was to
discuss "concrete steps" to spur the
development of clean technology, with "tangible
results over these next six months," according to
Paula
Dobriansky, speaking for the Bush Administration.
Responding to criticism of the low level of financial
backing from the United States government,
James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on
Environmental Quality, said that that perspective is
"completely turned around. Only with private sector
investment does the technology get deployed. The
government does not go out into the world and spend the
several trillion dollars that are about to be spent on
the technologies that are going to be the solutions to
this problem." Government's role, he concluded,
is to guide investment.
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Former Soviet President Mikhail
Gorbachev, chair of Green Cross
International, has called on the industrialized nations
to establish a 50-billion-dollar fund to support solar
power. "This idea reflects our vision of a way of
helping the energy-impoverished in the developing world,
while creating concentrations of solar energy in cities
that could be used to prevent blackouts," he said.
Marking the anniversary of the Chernobyl
nuclear accident, he warned that oil and nuclear energy
are not viable energy sources for the future.
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The Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) reports that momentum is gathering
for a switch from fossils fuels to renewable bioenergy
sources such as sugar cane or sunflower seeds.
"The gradual move away from oil has begun. Over the
next 15 to 20 years we may see biofuels providing a full 25
per cent of the world’s energy needs," according
to Alexander Müller of the FAO's Sustainable
Development Department. "Oil at more than 70
dollars a barrel makes bio-energy potentially more
competitive," he continued. "Also, in the last
decade global environmental concerns and energy consumption
patterns have built up pressure to introduce more renewable
energy into national energy plans and to reduce reliance on
fossil fuels." Brazil, with most new cars powered by
flex fuel
engines, is highlighted as an example for the rest of
the world.
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The news of lower than expected emissions from
European industry triggered a substantial drop in the price
of carbon
dioxide permits on the European market last week.
Prices dropped by close to 50 per cent, causing investors
to question the functioning of the European Union's
carbon trading scheme. "It does raise the question
whether there were too many permits issued and that the
governments may have got it wrong," commented Louis
Redshaw at Barclays Capital.
"If there's a surplus there's no incentive to
reduce emissions and the price collapses," said James
Emanuel at brokers CO2e.com.
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The Czech Republic has recently announced that its
emissions during 2004 were about 15 per cent below the
national cap. Dutch emissions fell eight per cent below.
Estonia has recorded 2005 emissions 25 per cent below its
cap and France almost 12 per cent below. Some analysts feel
that the reduction in emissions indicates that the market
is working. "This is really the first time since the
system started that there has been anything other than bad
news [for the environment]," said Chris Rogers of
JPMorgan.
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More information
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Background
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The United States emitted a record quantity of
greenhouse gases during 2004, according to the latest
figures from the Environmental Protection
Agency. Greater electricity consumption was the main
cause of the 1.7 per cent increase from 2003. National
carbon emissions have risen sharply in recent years
despite concern about climate change and have increased
by almost 16 per cent since 1990. Methane and nitrous
oxide levels have, however, decreased by ten and two per
cent, respectively, from 1990 levels.
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David
Read, Vice President of the London-based Royal Society, commented
that "while the United Kingdom appears to be doing
slightly better, its carbon dioxide emissions have been
rising annually for the past three years." "The
United States and the United Kingdom are the two leading
scientific nations in the world and are home to some of
the best climate researchers. But in terms of fulfilling
the commitment made by their signature to the United
Nations Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas levels in
the atmosphere, neither country is demonstrating
leadership by reducing their emissions to the levels
required," he concluded.
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Scientists predict that global warming will mean
drier summers in the Caribbean and parts of Central
America. The forecast is based on a review of a number of
climate model simulations. The model consensus was that a
substantial decrease in tropical rainfall could occur by
2054, earlier according to some models. The regions most
likely to experience summer drying are Cuba, Jamaica,
Haiti, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala
and Honduras.
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Lead author of the study, David Neelan of
the University of
California at Los Angeles, said that "the regions
in the tropics that get a lot of summer precipitation are
going to get more, and the regions that get very little
precipitation will get even less, if the models are
correct." "Certain regions in between will get
shifted from a moderate amount of precipitation to a low
amount," he continued. "The bigger the
temperature rise, the larger the change in
precipitation." Commenting on the slight decrease in
summer rainfall that has affected the Caribbean over the
past 50 years, Neelin said that "it is plausible that
the decrease is due to global warming, but there is not yet
a smoking gun that shows that to be the case." It
could be "part of a natural cycle."
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If you want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions become
a vegetarian, according to a recent study from the University of Chicago.
Gidon
Eshel and Pamela
Martin examined a range of typical American diets,
considering the amount of fossil-fuel energy and greenhouse
gas emissions associated for each. The vegetarian diet
proved the most energy-efficient. "The less
animal-based food you eat, and the more you replace those
calories with plant-based food, the better off you are, in
terms of your health as well as your contributions to the
health of the planet," Eshel concludes.
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In terms of total emissions, red meat was the worst
offender, though the fish-based diet rivalled red meat in
energy consumption. "The seafood portion of American
diets is heavily skewed toward what is called charismatic
predator fish," Eshel reported. "Sword, shark and
tuna and so on require long-distance ocean journeys, and
those efforts... require a lot of labour and a lot of
fossil fuel."
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The largest wind power project in China is to be
developed in the
Turpan Basin in Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region. The Huadian Corporation will
invest US$1.87 billion in two million kilowatts of
capacity. China's
Law on Renewable Energy came into force on January
1st 2006 and emphasizes the development and use of solar
energy and wind power. It includes a national renewable
energy requirement that should increase the role of
renewable energy to up to 10 per cent of total energy
consumption by the year 2020. "China could and
should be a world leader in renewable energy
development," commented Yu Jie, Greenpeace
energy policy advisor, when the law was passed last
year.
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Pennsylvania Energy Development Authority is giving
15 small wind turbine systems to municipalities, public
authorities or schools to publicize the role of this
technology in meeting energy needs. According to
Pennsylvania governor
Edward G Rendell, "by placing these windmills
where many people can see them, Pennsylvanians will be
able to learn about and experience alternative energy as
part of their daily lives." Successful applicants
will receive a Southwest Windpower
small-scale wind system and basic installation at no
charge, though they will have to pay a fee to connect to
the grid and they must provide public outreach and
education.
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A two-day meeting
on desertification, hunger and poverty was held in Geneva,
Switzerland, April 11-12th 2006. The aim was to find new
ways of combating desertification. "The issue of
desertification has largely been ignored by the
international community. There is a lack of interest and a
lack of support," said Liliane Ortega of the
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, the
national representative to the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification. "The problem is that many poor
countries don't have the means to fight desertification
and the situation, because of human and climatic reasons,
is getting worse and worse. It's not an issue –
unlike climate change or biodiversity – in which the
economic world is very interested," she
continued.
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The participants concluded that, alongside more foreign
aid, there was a need for mobilization at the political
level and from the countries affected. "It was not
just a question of trying to find more money, but that
there can be a partnership between the West and the
developing world... that [the affected countries] have to
act themselves but with the support of the West,"
commented Ortega. The meeting was a contribution to the
International Year of
Deserts and Desertification.
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More information
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Background
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Climate change could cause the extinction of tens of
thousands of species over coming decades, according to a
recent study. The researchers predict a substantial
thinning out of biodiversity in hotspots such as the
Caribbean basin. These hotspots are "the crown jewels
of the planet's biodiversity," said lead author
Jay Malcolm of the University of
Toronto. Around 40 per cent of the species in these
areas could disappear as carbon dioxide levels in the
atmosphere double.
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The study concludes that the tropical Andes, the Cape
Floristic region (on the tip of South Africa), southwest
Australia, and the Atlantic forests of Brazil, Paraguay and
Argentina are particularly vulnerable. Species in many of
these regions have few avenues for escape. These hotspots
"are essentially refugee camps for many of our
planet's most unique plant and animals species,"
according to
Lee Hannah of Conservation
International. "If those areas are no longer
habitable due to global warming, then we will ... be
destroying the last sanctuaries many of these species have
left.".
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"The debate is over. The science is in. The
time to act is now. Global warming is a serious issue
facing the world and California has taken an historic
step with the release of this report," said
California
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. "We are all
convinced that we can protect our environment and leave
California a better place without harming our
economy," he continued. Schwarzenegger was speaking
at the launch of a report by the state's
Climate Action Team. The report recommends means to
achieve pollution reduction targets set last year: to
reduce global warming emissions to 2000 levels by 2010,
to 1990 levels by 2020 and to 80 per cent below 1990
levels by 2050.
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Canada's new government has begun dismantling the
nation's Climate
Change Program, according to the
Sierra Club of Canada. "Apparently, the federal
government has launched a stealth campaign against action
on climate change," said John Bennett of the Sierra
Club. Programmes announced in
Action Plan 2000 have not been renewed and Natural Resources Canada
has been reducing its staff. The government has been
sending
equivocal signals regarding its commitment to the
Kyoto
process since its election two months ago.
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The region of Gedo, in the south
of Somalia, is
undergoing a "critical nutrition situation",
according to a team led by Food Security Analysis
Unit-Nutrition. With pastureland disappearing and most
water sources dry, "the only coping mechanisms left
are migration; reducing the number and quantity of meals;
collection and selling firewood by the poor; and food
aid," said Sidow Ibrahim Addou of the Famine Early Warning
Systems Network.
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It is estimated that around 1.7 million people in
northern, central and southern Somalia are facing an acute
crisis because of drought. Christian Balslev-Olesen, United
Nations Acting Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, warned
that "Somalia is facing a drought, an emergency
situation - the most severe in a decade - and this is
coming on top of a situation where you already have all the
most difficult indicators for human development," he
said. Drought-induced hardship is putting recent political
progress in danger. "The two elements - the political
peace process and the humanitarian situation - of course do
present two different momentums. But they are
interlinked," he concluded.
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Analysis of the longest pollen
records for Central and South America suggests that, on
geological timescales, global warming is accompanied by an
expansion of the rainforest and an increase in
biodiversity. "We found that pollen diversity tracks
global temperature through time over millions of years.
Diversity increases as the planet warms and decreases as it
cools," reports
Carlos Jaramillo of the Smithsonian Tropical Research
Institute.
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Jaramillo proposes that the changes in area drive
speciation and extinction. "There is good correlation
between area and number of species: more area implies more
species. During global warming, tropical areas expand and
diversity goes up, the opposite happens during global
cooling," he said. If this is the case, fragmentation
of modern tropical forest could be equated to a global
cooling period, because forested areas are shrinking
dramatically, resulting in plummeting diversity in the
forests that remain."
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China is proposing to cut greenhouse gas emissions
by 846 millions tons annually through the installation of
energy-saving technologies in new buildings. "If all
of the national energy-saving standards have been fully
implemented by 2020, China will be greatly contributing
towards curbing global warming," said Minister of
Construction Wang
Guangtao. Vice-Minister of Construction Qiu Baoxing
said the proposal could bring business opportunities for
Chinese real estate developers, who may trade emission
quotas with developed countries. The announcement was
made at an international exhibition and forum on green
and smart buildings in Beijing.
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Targets have already been set for saving energy in
real estate development. By 2010, all new buildings
should be 50 per cent more energy-efficient then in 2005.
One real estate developer called for economic incentives
to promote the campaign. "The extra cost is the
major reason why the market is slow to react," said
Zhang Jun. Vice-Premier
Zeng Peiyan regards the nation-wide energy-saving
campaign as crucial because of resource shortages.
"If we don't take action now the situation will
become worse," he said.
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More information
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Background
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Climate change is increasing the number of the most
severe tropical
storms, according to a recent study. The research
includes processes, such as wind shear, neglected in
previous work. "We were criticized by the seasonal
forecasters for not including the other environmental
factors," said Kerry Emanuel
of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. Analysing the number of
category four and five hurricanes alongside a range of
environmental factors, sea surface temperature emerged as
the only factor that could explain the observed rising
trend.
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Review of over 100 studies of trends in the global
water cycle reveals that, although the global water
cycle has intensified overall, there has been no consistent
increase in the total number of storms or of floods.
"We are talking about two possible overall responses
to global climate warming: first an intensification of the
water cycle being manifested by more moisture in the air,
more precipitation, more runoff, more evapotranspiration,
which we do see in this study; and second, the potential
effects of the intensification that would include more
flooding and more tropical storms which we don't see in
this study," said Thomas
Huntington of the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean
Sciences.
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British Prime Minister Tony Blair,
speaking in New Zealand, has called for urgent action on a
post-Kyoto climate agreement. "I don't believe
that we can wait five years to conclude a new agreement. I
think we've got to do it much more quickly than
that," he told a climate
change conference in Wellington. He argued that
"such an agreement, if it's going to be
successful, has got to include all the major countries of
the world and that includes the major developing
economies."
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He believes that new technology will be a critical
factor in limiting climate change. "It's almost as
if we've got to produce the type of technological
revolution that gripped us with information
technology," he said. While in Australia, Blair gave a
broad endorsement to the
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
Climate. "I think the fact that you've got
these initiatives at the moment, all tending in the same
direction, is actually a positive sign, it's not a
negative one," he said, arguing that such initiatives
could eventually be brought together. Back home, the Blair
government has been accused of a "pitiful"
failure to meet its target for greenhouse gas emissions
reductions.
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World Water
Day, on March 22nd 2006, was marked by the Fourth
World Water Forum, an international meeting in Mexico
City on management of the world's fresh water
resources. Over one billion people do not have access to
safe drinking water and four out of every ten people lack
access to sanitation. In a keynote speech, Nobel Prize
Winner
Mario Molina warned that climate change and
inappropriate water management might intensify global
warming, creating "an intolerable risk." There
was disappointment that the
Forum declaration did not declare water a human
right, referring only to its critical importance.
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Director-General of the
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization,
Koïchiro Matsuura, stressed the importance of
the theme, Water and Culture. "Traditional knowledge
alerts us to the fact that water is not merely a
commodity," he said. "Since the dawn of
humanity, water has inspired us, giving life spiritually,
materially, intellectually and emotionally. Sharing and
applying the rich contents of our knowledge systems,
including those of traditional and indigenous societies,
as well as lessons learned from our historical
interactions with water, may greatly contribute to
finding solutions for today’s water
challenges."
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The European Union (EU) has launched a
new initiative, the
CASTOR Project, to develop the capture of greenhouse
gases as they are produced by power stations and their
storage underground. The aim is to cut Europe's
emissions of carbon dioxide by ten per cent (or 30 per cent
of the emissions of large industrial facilities, mainly
power stations). It is also intended that the cost of
carbon capture and storage be reduced from the current 60
euros a tonne to around 20 euros a tonne. "By
developing technologies for carbon capture and storage, we
can reduce emissions in the medium-term as we move to
large-scale use of renewable, carbon-free energy
sources," commented EU science commissioner
Janez Potocnik.
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The CASTOR Project will operate the world's largest
carbon capture installation at
Esbjerg
in Denmark to test new carbon separation technologies. Four
carbon storage sites will provide case studies
representative of the range of geological conditions across
Europe. Carbon capture and storage is seen as a possible
"medium-term solution to the current dichotomy of our
dependence on fossil fuel technology and the fact that
alternative sources of energy aren't yet ready to
satisfy the global demand for energy," according to EU
spokeswoman
Antonia Mochan.
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Climate change may be contributing to the resurgence
of malaria in the
highlands of East Africa,
according to an international team of scientists.
Contradicting previous work, the researchers found a half a
degree Celsius rise in regional temperature, which could
result in enhanced abundance of mosquitoes.
"We showed that a small increase in temperature can
lead to a much larger increase in the abundance of
mosquitoes," said team member
Mercedes Pascual of the University of Michigan.
"And because mosquito abundance is generally quite low
in these highland regions, any increase in abundance can be
an important factor in transmission of the
disease."
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The scientists are cautious in attributing climate
change as a causal factor as other processes, such as drug
and pesticide resistance, changing land use patterns and
human migration, may be playing a part. "Our results
do not mean that temperature is the only or the main factor
driving the increase in malaria, but that it is one of many
factors that should be considered," Pascual said. She
added that "this is a very polarized field, in terms
of supporting or not supporting the role of climate versus
other factors. We don't want to contribute to the
polarization, which I think is very unproductive in terms
of the science. I hope we can move from this sort of debate
into a more constructive one about interactions and
relative roles of all the factors that may be contributing
to the resurgence of malaria."
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The amount of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record 381 parts
per million by volume during 2005, according to preliminary
figures from the Office of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Research at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). David Hofmann from NOAA said
that levels rose by 2.6 parts per million from the previous
year.
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Pieter
Tans, a carbon dioxide analyst for NOAA, reckons the
latest figures confirm a worrying trend. "We don't
see any sign of a decrease; in fact, we're seeing the
opposite, the rate of increase is accelerating," he
said.
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Over the past 40 years, there have been fewer rain-
and snow-producing storms in middle latitudes, but the
storms that have occurred have been stronger, each storm
generating more precipitation. A new study by the United
States National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA), based on global
satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud
Climatology Project and the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project, has examined the
implications of this trend. The results show conflicting
warming and cooling effects and an overall increase in
precipitation amounts.
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NASA scientist
George Tselioudis notes that "there are
consequences of having fewer but stronger storms in the
middle latitudes both on the radiation and on the
precipitation fields." The net effect on the radiation
balance should lead to cooling, it is calculated, with the
cooling effect of the thicker clouds in the more intense
storms outweighing the warming effect as global cloud cover
is reduced. Overall, precipitation levels have increased,
despite the drop in the number of storms.
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Keeping carbon dioxide levels from reaching
potentially dangerous levels could cost less than 1 per
cent of gross world product as of 2050, according to
Klaus
Laukner and Jeffrey
Sachs of The Earth
Institute in New York in the United States. They
consider that this cost is well within the reach of both
developed and developing nations.
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They warn, however, that there must be simultaneous
progress in the way energy is found, transformed,
transported and used. "Today's technology base
is insufficient to provide clean and plentiful energy for
9 billion people," the authors conclude. "To
satisfy tomorrow's energy needs, it will not be
enough simply to apply current best practices. Instead,
new technologies, especially carbon capture and
sequestration at large industrial plants, will need to be
brought to maturity."
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A survey of 47 journalists in four developing
countries, Honduras, Jamaica, Sri Lanka and Zambia, reveals
that the media in these countries have a poor understanding
of climate change and do not consider reporting the issue a
high priority. The survey was conducted by the Panos Institute, based in
London in the United Kingdom. According to Panos, the
media, policymakers and scientists should encourage an
"urgently needed" public discussion.
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On Zambia, the report says that "the little
reportage that appears barely scratches the surface, and
lacks in-depth analysis of what climate change is, what its
effects are, and the available strategies to cope with
them." The journalists interviewed said they lacked
access to clear, accurate information and that scientific
jargon made reporting difficult, especially in the case of
reporters who do not speak English.
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"Given the gravity of the situation and the
importance of taking action, I hope that the global
community will move a little more rapidly with some
future agreements" on climate change, said
Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), speaking during a recent visit to
Oslo, the capital of Norway. He said that the inhabitants
of low-lying countries and small islands are "living
in a state of fear." "We must understand the
reasons behind their fears. We're really talking
about their very existence, the complete devastation of
the land on which they're living."
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While refusing to be drawn on the conclusions of the
forthcoming IPCC
assessment, he did comment on the latest research on
the link between greenhouse gas emissions and global
warming, saying that "if one looks at just the
scientific evidence that's been collected, it's
certainly becoming far more compelling. There is no
question about it." He also reckons that the costs
of slowing global warming might be less than forecast in
the IPCC's 2001 report.
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Reducing emissions of greenhouse gas methane by a fifth could prevent 370,000 deaths
worldwide between 2010 and 2030, according to Jason West of
Princeton
University in the United States and his collaborators.
The money saved by preventing these deaths would exceed the
cost of the emissions reduction.
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Methane reacts in the lower atmosphere to produce ozone,
which has been linked to premature deaths in the
industrialized nations as a result of cardio-respiratory
disease and other health problems. Emissions are being
reduced under the Kyoto Protocol through, for example,
capture of the gas and its subsequent use in generating
energy. The researchers conclude that "methane
mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air
quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of
international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits
for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and
energy."
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United States President George W
Bush says he is "fired up" about renewable
energy. "We're close to changing the way we live
in an incredibly positive way," he said while visiting
the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy
Laboratory. He downplayed the push to build nuclear
power plants and emphasised clean coal, ethanol, hybrid
cars, wind and solar power. To achieve the "national
goal of becoming less dependent on foreign sources of
oil," Bush said "we're not relying upon one
aspect of renewable energy to help this country become less
dependent. We're talking about a variety of
fronts."
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"I wasn't satisfied with the federal
response," Bush acknowledged, responding to a White
House report on the government's response to Hurricane
Katrina. "We will learn ... to better protect the
American people." The report found numerous failures
in the government's response and proposed over 100
fixes, including better communications, improved evacuation
plans and first aid training for students. It was concluded
that the White House should have recognized problems
earlier and moved faster to coordinate federal aid.
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Mangrove
plants account for a tenth of the dissolved
organic carbon flowing from land to the ocean even
though they cover less than 0.1 per cent of the land
surface world-wide. The results, which suggest that the
mangrove is one of the main sources of dissolved organic
carbon in the ocean, stem from a study of the carbon
output from a large Brazilian mangrove forest by Thorsten
Dittmar at Florida State University
in Tallahassee, United States, and his
collaborators.
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"To understand global biogeochemical cycles it is
crucial to quantify the sources of marine dissolved
organic carbon," according to Dittmar and his
co-authors. "We show that mangroves play an
unexpected role in the global carbon cycle." The
mangrove root system traps leaf litter, rich in carbon,
running off the land and dissolved organic matter is
leached into the coastal waters from this sediment. Tides
then flush the carbon into the open ocean. The mangrove
ecosystem has declined by nearly half over recent decades
because of coastal development. The researchers fear that
this trend may be cutting off the link between the land
and ocean, affecting the composition of the atmosphere
and global climate.
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More information
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Background
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According to the South Pacific Sea Level
and Climate Monitoring Project sea level around the
Pacific island of Tonga appears to
have risen by about ten centimetres over the past 13 years.
Sea level has been rising at all stations monitored, but
the rise has been greatest at Tonga, where it averaged
8.4mm per year. The oldest gauge in the Pacific, at
Lautoka, Fiji, was installed
in October 1992 and shows an average trend of a 2.8mm rise
a year since then.
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The coordinators of the monitoring project advise
caution interpreting the data. "Observed trends in sea
level include natural variability, for example, events such
as El Niño and effects due to many other atmospheric,
oceanographic and geological processes. Longer-term data
sets for all stations are required in order to separate the
effects of the different signals."
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More information
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Background
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The Aletsch
glacier in Switzerland, the longest in Europe, lost
66m last year. Swiss scientists claim this reduction to
be an effect of global warming. In total, 84 of the 91
glaciers surveyed in a Swiss Academy of Sciences study
shrank. A previous
study from the University of Zurich reported that
Switzerland's glaciers had shrunk by about a fifth
over the previous 15 years. Andreas Bauder of
ETH
Zürich, warns, though, that predicting the
impact of climate change is difficult because, as well as
temperature, glaciers respond to rain and snowfall and
these parameters are hard to forecast.
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A reduction in the Rocky Mountain snowpack has slowed
down the release of carbon
dioxide from forest soils, according to scientists
from the University of
Colorado and other American institutions. The effect
occurs as the reduction in insulation cools the soil and
retards the metabolism of the microbes responsible for
the release of the greenhouse gas. "I view this as a
small amount of good news in a large cloud of bad
news," said Russell Monson,
who led the research.
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The possibility of a binding International Agreement
on Forests is being debated at the United Nations Forum on
Forests, which opened February 13th in New York.
Opinions differ, with some nations, such as China,
supporting the proposal while others, for example, Brazil,
are strongly opposed. China's representative, Qu
Guilin, considers the negotiations "critical... to the
future management, conservation and sustainable development
of forests at the global level." Brazil argues that
the adoption of quantifiable targets is not an appropriate
response to the threats facing the world's
forests.
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President
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil announced the
opening of two new national parks and the expansion of an
existing reserve as the Forum opened. A further four
national forests, where sustainable logging will be
permitted, and an environmental protection zone, within
which development is strictly constrained, have also been
created. One aim of the creation of these protected areas
is to limit development along the new
BR-163 highway from
Cuiabá to
Santarém.
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The United Nations is relying on Canada's new
government to respect its obligations under the climate
treaty. John Hay, communications director for the United
Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, warned that "there
is a compliance regime... which foresees that countries do
need to meet their commitments, and if they don't there
will be implications." Canada currently exceeds its
Kyoto
target by around 25 per cent.
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Canadian immigration minister, Monte Solberg, has
described the nation's Kyoto target as
"insane". "If we decide to ban all planes,
trains and automobiles in Canada and entirely abandon all
manufacturing, stop all construction and shut every mine we
would still fall short" of the target, he claims.
"In order to reach our Kyoto targets we will have to
get to work by bicycle, foot or oxen," he continued.
"Excuse me, I've got an appointment downtown. When
does the next express oxen come by?" It appears,
though, that the new government may have changed its
pre-election line. Environment minister Rona Ambrose says
that the government will "move on very quickly"
with a new climate action plan. "I think we not only
have the political will from the prime minister, and from
myself and my colleagues, on this issue, we also have the
public will on our side."
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The industrialized nations have shown
"significant progress" in working out new
policies and rules and the 2012 Kyoto targets remain
within reach, according to the Secretariat of the United
Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The announcement, based on information filed early
this year, marked the first anniversary of the date
the Kyoto
Protocol came into force. Overall emissions from
the industrialized nations fell from 18.4 billion
tonnes of carbon dioxide in 1990 to 17.3 billion
tonnes in 2003.
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The Kyoto nations were "on their way to lower
their emission levels by at least 3.5 per cent below
1990 levels" by the 2008-12 target period,
according to
Richard Kinley, acting head of the UNFCCC. With
extra measures, Kinley considers that the Kyoto
nations could reach the overall target of at least a
5 per cent cut below 1990 levels. But they would have
to "sustain or even intensify their
efforts," he continued. "More is
needed." The UNFCCC Secretariat reckons that the
Clean Development Mechanism could cut 800 million
tonnes of emissions by 2012, according to Christine
Zumkeller, coordinator of the UNFCCC
Project-based Mechanisms.
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Plants are losing less water as atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels rise, and this means that more
moisture is left in the soil, according to a recent
investigation. The finding may explain why river flow
around the world is increasing, although there has
been little overall change in rainfall amounts.
Nicola Gedney, from the Joint
Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Research in the
United Kingdom, led the team that conducted the
study. She says that the research "answers a key
question about what is driving the changes in the
global water cycle." "Carbon dioxide is not
only a greenhouse gas, it can also affect the
world's water directly through plant
life."
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The effect occurs as high levels of carbon dioxide
in the air mean that the plant functions more
efficiently. As a result, the
stomata, the tiny openings through which plants
take in the carbon that supports growth, remain open
for less time and less water is "breathed"
out. Modelling the process world-wide, the first time
this has been attempted, Gedney concludes that
"climate change on its own would have slightly
reduced run-off, whereas the carbon dioxide effect on
plants would have increased global run-off by about 5
per cent." The combined effect matches the
change in flow that has been observed in reality.
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Scientists meeting in Winnipeg, Canada, to
discuss the
Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study have warned
that climate change is seriously affecting the
physical environment of the Arctic and the lives of
the
Inuit communities.
David Barber, of the
University of Manitoba, warns that the polar sea
ice is melting at a rate of about 74,000 square
kilometres a year and this has been the case for the
past 30 years. "This is a very significant
result, and it's not some sort of trend
that's going to shift back the other way,"
he said.
Louis Fortier, from the Université Laval in
Quebec City, says that the Inuit are already
experiencing the negative effects of climate change
and sea-level rise as ice is lost, shorelines erode
and food sources disappear.
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The United States Fish and Wildlife Service
has announced that it is opening the formal process to
list polar bears as "threatened" due to the
impact of global warming. The move occurs in response
to a
lawsuit filed by three conservation groups.
"These animals need protection now," warned
Andrew Wetzler of the Natural Resources Defense
Council. "Everything in their lives depends
on the ice sheet, and that ice sheet is disappearing
at an unprecedented rate. If current pollution levels
continue we simply will not recognize the Arctic
anymore."
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A new report concludes that renewable energy
must play a major role in global energy supply to
meet the threat of climate change. The report, from
the Renewable Energy
Policy Network for the 21st Century, argues that
the cost competitiveness of renewable energy
technology means that action should be taken at the
national level without waiting for strengthened
global environmental agreements. It was launched at
the
9th Session of the United Nations Environment
Programme Governing Council and Global Ministerial
Environment Forum, held in early February.
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John
Christensen from the Risø Centre on
Climate, Energy and Sustainable Development in
Denmark, the report's lead author, says that many
renewable energy technologies have "moved from
being a passion for the dedicated few to a major
economic sector attracting large industrial companies
and financial institutions." Nevertheless, he
comments, "although there are many good
political, economic and social reasons for
stimulating a more rapid development of renewable
energy - not the least of which is climate change -
the sector is hampered by a number of market
distortions and institutional, financial, and
economic barriers."
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Sweden is
committing to replace all fossil fuels with renewable
energy sources within 15 years in an ambitious
attempt to become the world's first near oil-free
economy. "Our dependency on oil should be broken
by 2020," said Mona Sahlin,
Minister of Sustainable
Development. "There shall always be better
alternatives to oil, which means no house should need
oil for heating, and no driver should need to turn
solely to gasoline."
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The Swedish government is working with car
manufacturers to develop vehicles that burn ethanol
and other biofuels. Grants are available to health
and library services to convert from oil use and
green taxes are being used to encourage homeowners.
At present, 32 per cent of the country's energy
is generated from oil.
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A report in the medical journal, The Lancet, warns
that health risks are likely to get worse as climate
change and other environmental and societal pressures
increase. "The advent of changes in global
climate signals that we are now living beyond the
Earth's capacity to absorb a major waste
product," according to the article's
authors, who were led by
Anthony McMichael of the Australian National
University in Canberra. Calling for research to
identify groups at risk, they argue that health
concerns must be included in the international
climate debate. "Recognition of widespread
health risks should widen these debates beyond the
already important considerations of economic
disruption."
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Reviewing scientific papers published over the
past five years, the authors conclude that "the
resultant risks to health... are anticipated to
compound over time" and that climate change may
already have led to lower production of food in some
regions due to changes in temperature, rainfall, soil
moisture, pests and diseases. "In food insecure
populations this alteration may already be
contributing to malnutrition," the review
states.
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The report Avoiding Dangerous Climate
Change concludes that global warming may have
more serious consequences than previous assessments
have suggested. Particular concerns are raised about
the
west Antarctic ice sheet. Chris
Rapley, head of the British Antarctic
Survey, warns that the massive ice sheet may be
starting to disintegrate. "The last
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report
characterized Antarctica as a slumbering giant in
terms of climate change. I would say it is now an
awakened giant," he warns. Based on the
proceedings of a 2005
conference, the report has been published by the
United Kingdom government.
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Writing in the foreword, British Prime Minister
Tony
Blair concludes that "it is now plain that
the emission of greenhouse gases... is causing global
warming at a rate that is unsustainable." The
conference participants considered the prospects to
be slim that greenhouse gas levels can be kept below
"dangerous" levels. A two degrees Celsius
rise in global temperature is a commonly-accepted
threshold beyond which it is believed unacceptable
impacts are inevitable. To hold the temperature rise
to this level would require a 450ppm limit on
atmospheric concentrations. In considering means of
limiting greenhouse gas emissions, the report
identifies vested interests, cultural barriers to
change and lack of awareness as hampering the
deployment of proven renewable energy and "clean
coal" technologies.
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In his State of the Union address, United
States President George
W Bush called for a break in his country's
addiction to oil. The main rationale was stated to be
national security, reducing dependence on imports,
though environmental improvement was also cited.
Clean energy research is to be stepped up by 22 per
cent. The move was welcomed by climate analysts,
though with some caution and scepticism. "The
first step in curing an addiction is recognizing that
you have a problem. He's stood up and taken the
first step in the 'oil-aholics'
programme,"
commented Steve Sawyer from Greenpeace. But
"this is not a conversion" to Kyoto-style
thinking, warned
Pål Prestrud of the Center for International
Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo,
Norway.
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Leading American climate researcher James
Hansen of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NASA) claims that the
Bush administration is trying to stop him speaking
out on global warming. He says that public affairs
staff at NASA have been told to vet his public
appearances and pronouncements: "they feel their
job is to be this censor of information going out to
the public." NASA denies that there has been any
effort to gag Hansen.
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The United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has
advanced a proposal to unlock US$7.24 trillion of
untapped wealth to attack problems such as global
warming, pandemics, poverty and conflict. According
to
Inge Kaul, UNDP special adviser, "the way
we run our economies today is vastly expensive and
inefficient - we don't manage risk well and
don't prevent crises. Money is wasted because
we dribble aid, and the costs of not solving the
problems are much higher than what we would pay for
getting the financial markets to lend the
money." Nations should account for the cost of
failed policies and use cash saved
"upfront" to avert crises.
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The UNDP plan is based on six financial schemes:
pollution permit trading; cutting poor
countries' borrowing costs; reducing debt
costs; accelerating access to vaccines; making use
of remittances from migrants; and underwriting
loans to market investors to lower interest rates.
The proposal has been published in the book The
New Public Finance. Trevor
Manuel, South Africa's finance minister,
reckons that the proposal addresses one of the most
profound challenges of modern public finance,
"how to construct better partnerships between
governments and private sector players and how to
strengthen cooperation between nations in pursuit
of common interests.”
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2005 has taken the record for the warmest year
world-wide, according to the latest analysis from the
United States National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NASA).
"It's fair to say that it probably is the
warmest since we have modern meteorological
records," said Drew
Shindell of NASA's Goddard Institute for
Space Studies in New York. "Using indirect
measurements that go back farther, I think it's
even fair to say that it's the warmest in the
last several thousand years."
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The American results differ from those issued
recently by a British team from the University of East
Anglia, in Norwich, and the Exeter-based
Hadley Centre. The provisional estimate from the
British scientists places 2005
as the second-warmest year, some way behind 1998. The
difference is due to the handling of the Arctic data.
The available evidence suggests was that this region
remarkably warm during 2005. "We believe that
the remarkable Arctic warmth of 2005 is real, and the
inclusion of estimated Arctic temperatures is the
primary reason for our rank of 2005 as the warmest
year," say the NASA researchers. The British
team takes a more conservative approach in
extrapolating over data-sparse regions.
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Australian researchers have shown that sea-level
rise has accelerated in recent decades. Analysis
of historic records of sea level reveals a trend of
1.44mm a year over the period since 1870, but the
rate has increased to 1.75mm per year during the
period since 1950. Projecting forward to the year
2100 suggests that global sea level could rise by 28
to 34cm this century.
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John
Church of the Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organization, co-author
of the study, warns that the future rise in sea level
"means there will be increased flooding of
low-lying areas when there are storm surges. It means
increased coastal erosion on sandy beaches; we're
going to see increased flooding on island
nations."
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The periodic warming and cooling of the
Pacific Ocean as El Niño waxes and wanes is
affecting the reproduction of
southern right whales, according to a long-term
study. "The whales produce fewer calves than
expected in years when El Niño makes waters
warmer in the western South Atlantic off
Antarctica," reports
Vicky Rowntree from the University of
Utah. "The warmer water causes a reduction
in the abundance of krill,
which are shrimp-like crustaceans eaten by large
whales and other predators."
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The population of southern right whales has been
severely depleted by commercial whaling over past
centuries, but a recovery has begun in recent
decades. The researchers are concerned that a
consistent trend in temperature of the Southern
Ocean, as predicted to accompany global warming,
could threaten this recovery. The average
temperature of the ocean off the Antarctic
Peninsula
rose by just over one degree Celsius during the
second half of the 20th century.
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A survey of attitudes in the United Kingdom has
revealed that the majority of the British public
prefer the promotion of renewable energy sources and
energy efficiency measures to the relaunch of a
nuclear power programme. The study was undertaken by
the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research and Ipsos MORI. "The
survey findings suggest that, given the numbers of
people who are opposed to the renewal of nuclear
power, there remains considerable potential for
conflict around this issue. Additionally, many of
those who do accept new nuclear power for Britain do
so only reluctantly, and only if renewables and other
strategies are developed and used alongside,"
said project leader
Nick Pidgeon from the University of East
Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom.
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Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre reckons that
claims that nuclear power can solve the problems of
climate change are "simplistic". He
believes that, as nuclear power stations reach the
end of their lives, the United Kingdom could easily
offset the loss of production through energy
efficiency measures. "If you've got money to
spend on tackling climate change then you don't
spend it on supply. You spend it on reducing
demand," he said. The survey results
demonstrated a lack of faith in British democracy as
62 per cent believed that nuclear power stations will
be built in the United Kingdom regardless of public
attitudes.
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A new energy efficiency guide for industry in
Asia has been published by the The United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP). The guidebook includes case
studies of energy solutions in over forty companies
across nine countries. The companies, in the cement,
chemicals, ceramics, pulp and paper, and steel
sectors, reduced their carbon emissions by up to
85,000 tons a year by adopting energy efficiency
measures. The Energy Efficiency Guide for Industry
in Asia is available in English, Bahasa
Indonesia, Chinese, Sinhala, Thai and
Vietnamese.
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"This guide comes at a crucial time as
studies show that Asia's energy use and related
carbon dioxide emissions will rise by more than 50
per cent by 2030," said
Surendra Shrestha, UNEP regional director for
Asia and the Pacific. "Asian economies are
particularly vulnerable to the consequences of
climate change." "Energy efficiency is
vital because rising oil prices threaten
Thailand's energy security and economic
growth," commented
Pravich Rattanapien, Thai Minister of Science and
Technology. "Technological research can help
companies to find new technologies that reduce energy
consumption."
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The United Nations World Food Programme faces
a US$44 million shortfall for its work in East
Africa. Without additional support, there may be no
food to distribute in drought-affected areas by the
end of February. Kenya,
Ethiopia,
Somalia
and Djibouti
have been affected by severe drought with the
year's crop lost. "It is imperative that
the donor community step up to the plate and avert
this impending food crisis affecting some of the
world's
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)," said
Anwarul K. Chowdhury, the United Nations High
Representative for LDCs, Landlocked Developing
Countries and Small Island Developing States.
"For countries like Somalia, Djibouti, and
Ethiopia... the situation is made even more
precarious given the high levels of
poverty."
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The failure of the rains at the end of 2005 and
long-term civil unrest means that close to 1.7
million people in Somalia are in need or urgent
assistance, according to the United Nations Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
"The drought compounds what was already a dire
humanitarian situation, and is affecting
communities in areas beset by years of high
malnutrition and morbidity rates, chronic food
insecurity, clan fighting, and suffering from
consecutive bad harvests," reported
Maxwell Gaylard, United Nations Humanitarian
Coordinator for Somalia.
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The inaugural meeting of the
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and
Climate (AP-6) took place in Sydney, Australia,
January 11-12th 2006. The six nations involved are
Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea
and the United States. The aim of the partnership,
according to United States energy secretary
Samuel Bodman, is to "work together with the
private sector... to take concrete action to meet
energy and environment needs while securing a more
prosperous future for our citizens." In a
statement issued at the end of the meeting, outlining
the partnership's strategy, the group said that
it recognized that "fossil fuels underpin our
economies, and will be an enduring reality for our
lifetimes and beyond. It is therefore critical that
we work together to develop, demonstrate and
implement cleaner and lower emissions technologies
that allow for the continued economic use of fossil
fuels while addressing air pollution and greenhouse
gas emissions." At the meeting, both China and
India stressed the role of technology transfer and
poverty alleviation.
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The partners have stressed that the alliance rests
on a non-binding compact designed to complement
rather than replace the Kyoto
Protocol. "While Kyoto puddles on nicely,
the real reductions will come from technology,"
claimed
Ian Macfarlane, Australia's Minister for
Industry. "This is not a diplomatic love-in.
It's a hard-edged business plan with targets and
reporting duties," he continued. Catherine
Fitzpatrick of Greenpeace
reckons that the new agreement is more a trade pact
than an environmental solution. "The short-term
interests of the fossil-fuel sector have been put
ahead of the long-term health and welfare of ordinary
people," she concluded. The inaugural meeting
set up task forces covering cleaner fossil-fuel
energy, renewable energy, power generation, steel,
aluminium, cement, coal mining, and buildings and
appliances.
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Frank Keppler of the Max Planck
Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg,
Germany, and his colleagues claim to have discovered
a new source for methane, arguing that plants may
produce up to a third of this greenhouse gas.
"We suggest that this newly identified source
may have important implications for the global
methane budget and may call for a reconsideration of
the role of natural methane sources in past climate
change," they write in a Nature
article. It had previously been thought that methane
could only be produced in environments that lack
oxygen, but laboratory experiments demonstrated that
plants emit methane even under normal, oxygen-rich
conditions. "Until now all the textbooks have
said that biogenic methane can only be produced in
the absence of oxygen," Keppler says. "For
that simple reason, nobody looked closely at
this."
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The results could bring into question the
effectiveness of tree planting to soak up atmospheric
carbon dioxide. "We now have the spectre that
new forests might increase greenhouse warming through
methane emissions rather than decrease it by being
'sinks' for carbon dioxide," noted
David
Lowe of New Zealand's National Institute of
Water and Atmospheric Research. Craig Trotter, at
Landcare
Research, based in Lincoln, New Zealand,
questioned whether methane emissions from forests
occur from all species under all conditions or only
when trees were under stress. "Even if such
small emissions do occur, there remain major benefits
in using forests to reduce total greenhouse gas
emissions," he said, estimating that New
Zealand's plantation forests would remain between
95 per cent and 99 per cent effective at offsetting
greenhouse gas emissions even taking into account the
methane handicap.
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A fungal disease driven by climate change
threatens hundreds of species of amphibians,
according to a recent report. "Disease is the
bullet that's killing the frogs," said the
study's lead scientist J Alan Pounds of the
Tropical
Science Center's Monteverde
Cloud Forest Preserve in Costa Rica. "But
climate change is pulling the trigger. Global
warming is wreaking havoc on amphibians and soon
will cause staggering losses of biodiversity,"
he concluded.
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The mechanism identified by the research lies in
the effect of climate warming on the dynamics of
the fungal infection. Higher temperatures lead to
greater cloud cover and hence cooler days but
warmer nights, which moderates the temperature
range and favours the disease. Extremes in
temperature kill the fungus. According to the 2004
Global
Amphibian Assessment, nearly one-third of the
world's 6,000 or so species of frogs, toads and
salamanders face extinction as a result of a
diverse range of pressures.
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More information
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Background
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The opposition Labor Party has called
on the Australian government to prepare for a
"flood" of refugees from the Pacific
Islands as sea level rises. "Australia needs to
establish an international coalition, particularly
from Pacific rim countries, so that when a country
does become uninhabitable Australia does its fair
share," argued
Anthony Albanese, opposition environment
spokesman. "The Howard government can't
continue to simply pretend that this is an issue that
doesn't have to be dealt with in our
region." Moreover, "we need to establish a
United Nations charter in terms of refugee
recognition which isn't there at the moment in
terms of environmental refugees," he
concluded.
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The Australian government was quick to dismiss the
call for action. "To start planning an
evacuation of the Pacific is really a ludicrous
policy," responded environment minister
Ian Campbell. "We've established the
world's leading sea-level change monitoring
equipment across the Pacific, in cooperation with our
Pacific neighbours and we work on a range of
adaptation measures with them. But to be planning in
the year 2006 for something that may not happen for
20, 30, 40 years, or may not happen at all (is
wrong), when there are so many things that we need to
be doing." Nevertheless, the Labor plan was
welcomed by Pacific islanders. "Tuvalu does
support the development of new policies that support
the Pacific by any future Australian
government," said Prime Minister Maatia
Toafa. "The proposals... are very much in
line with the Marshall Islands thinking," said
the foreign minister Gerald Zachios of the Marshall
Islands.
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Research by a multi-institutional team has
shown that large-scale plantations, while
offsetting carbon emissions, can have adverse
effects on the environment. "We believe that
decreased stream flow and changes in soil and water
quality are likely as plantations are increasingly
grown for biological carbon sequestration,"
the ten authors concluded in a paper in the journal
Science. The study, led by Duke
University, was based on field data and
modelling.
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"After about ten years' growth under
intensive plantations, about one-in-eight of the
streams that were in the areas that we studied had
no flow for a year or more, and overall there was a
50 per cent reduction in stream flow,"
reported Damien
Barrett from CSIRO in Australia.
Using plantations as a means of managing the carbon
concentration in the atmosphere is "about
trade-offs, it's about maximizing carbon
sequestration benefit and minimizing the adverse
flow-on effects by locating plantations in the
landscape," he concludes.
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A new study concludes that the world is running
out of fertile land and that food production may fail
to keep up with the planet's growing population.
The results are based on maps of global land use
derived from satellite information and agricultural
census data.
Navin Ramankutty of the University of
Wisconsin-Madison in the United States said that
"the maps show, very strikingly, that a large
part of our planet (roughly 40 per cent) is being
used for either growing crops or grazing
cattle." "One of the major changes we see
is the fast expansion of soybeans in Brazil and
Argentina, grown for export to China and the
EU," he continued.
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There is concern that there is little space left
for agricultural expansion. "Except for Latin
America and Africa, all the places in the world where
we could grow crops are already being cultivated. The
remaining places are either too cold or too dry to
grow crops," warned Ramankutty. The project will
continue with the development of the Earth
Collaboratory, an internet-based databank drawing on
the expertise of scientists, environmentalists and
the public world-wide.
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Seven states in the Northeast United States
have announced an agreement to control carbon dioxide
emissions through a mandatory "cap-and-trade"
programme. The Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative (RGGI) aims to stabilize emissions
from power plants in the region at current levels by
the year 2015, and reduce emissions by 10 per cent
from current levels by 2019. There will also be
energy efficiency and other emissions reduction
projects outside of the power sector. The states
involved are Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New
Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Vermont.
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Governor George
Pataki of New York, a Republican, pioneered the
RGGI proposal. "My goal in proposing the
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in 2003 was to
bring states together to tackle a significant
environmental challenge that we all face, knowing
that a collaborative effort is the most effective
policy," he said. According to Delaware Governor
Ruth
Ann Minner, a Democrat, "this historic
agreement represents the first significant step
toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions in this
nation. I am proud that Delaware has been part of
this very important effort which I believe will
result in measurable reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions in a manner that maintains reliability and
economic certainty in our electrical generating
sector. I also see the potential for this programme
serving as a national model."
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The Global Governance Initiative, a World Economic Forum project, has concluded
that the world has slipped backwards in the areas
of environment and human rights during 2005. In the
environment sector, governments scored poorly for a
number of reasons: a lack of high-level political
commitment to global environmental goals; few
countries slowed or reduced greenhouse gas
emissions; no serious frameworks to ensure
ecosystem integrity; and hundreds of millions of
people still lack access to clean water and
sanitation.
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Progress has, though, been made in other areas.
Richard Samans of the World Economic Forum
cites the outcome of the December 2005 World Trade
Organization
Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong, PR China,
as an example of "how the international
community is beginning to work harder to alleviate
poverty. But it "still has a long way to
go," he continued. "Much remains to be
done in 2006 to transform the 'Doha Development
Round' from an aspiration to a concrete plan of
action. A lot of hard bargaining lies ahead."
Other commentators were less
impressed by the outcome in Hong Kong, citing
the lack of any clear commitment on the part of the
leading industrialized nations to open up their
markets to developing countries and end subsidies
to domestic producers.
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A food additive could cut significantly the
amount of methane released by flatulent cows.
"In some experiments we get a 70 per cent
decrease, which is quite staggering," said
John Wallace of the Rowett Research
Institute in Aberdeen, Scotland. The food
additive is based on fumaric
acid, which occurs naturally and is essential to
the respiration of animal and vegetable
tissue.
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"In total around 14 per cent of global
methane comes from the guts of farm animals. It is
worth doing something about," Wallace reckons.
In 2003, the New Zealand government proposed a
flatulence tax - methane emitted by farm animals
accounts for more than half the country's
greenhouse gases - but the plan was dropped after
widespread protests.
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More information
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Background
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African commentators have welcomed the Montreal commitment to
formal talks on a post-Kyoto greenhouse gas regime,
which should secure the future of the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). "This is
a significant victory in the context of these highly
contested negotiations," said Richard
Worthington of the
South African Climate Action Network. "While
overall progress to limit global greenhouse gas
emissions is still unacceptably slow, these outcomes
offer the possibility of multilateral actions, within
the shrinking window of opportunity, sufficient to
avert a climate chaos that would give rise to
hundreds of millions of environmental
refugees."
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There is, however, concern that Africa will be
excluded from the major benefits of an expansion in
CDM projects.
Ken Newcombe, who pioneered carbon
trading at the World Bank, says the European
Union has discriminated against Africa by prohibiting
investment in forestry and agriculture projects,
creating "effectively a trade barrier against
the poor." Lwazikazi Tyani, head of South
Africa's CDM authority, reckons that the
timescale of major energy projects and the fact the
few African countries have national CDM certification
authority yet "locks much of Africa out of the
benefits of CDM."
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More information
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Further comment
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Three environmental organizations have filed
a law suit seeking protection for the
polar bear under the United States Endangered
Species Act. If the lawsuit is successful, the
polar bear will become the first species officially
recognized as at risk from climate change.
"Global warming and rising temperatures in the
Arctic jeopardize the polar bear's very
existence. Polar bears cannot survive without sea
ice." said
Melanie Duchin, a Greenpeace
spokesperson.
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"As global warming continues, more bears
are going to die. This is very predictable,
it's common sense... They can't survive if
their habitat disappears," said Kassie Siegel
of the Center
for Biological Diversity. "To ensure these
bears survive, we need to reduce the pollution that
is melting their habitat. The Endangered Species
Act is a safety net for plants and animals facing
extinction. Listing will provide important
protections for this majestic animal."
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Climate modellers predict that global warming
could melt almost all of the Arctic permafrost
lying within 3.5 metres of the soil surface by the
end of the century. David
Lawrence of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the
United States warns that "there's a lot of
carbon stored in the soil. If the permafrost does
thaw, as our model predicts, it could have a major
influence on climate." The carbon will be
released as thawed vegetation decomposes.
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The Arctic permafrost stores about 30 per cent of
global soil carbon. Lawrence reckons that "in
terms of its impact on the global climate, I
don't see how it can be good news, but just how
bad it is is unclear. It's very difficult to see
how we can halt it. We may be able to slow it
down." Reducing emissions could cut the
permafrost loss from a 90 per cent decline, under a
high-emissions scenario, to close to 60 per cent
under a low-emissions scenario. The melting
permafrost would also release large amounts of fresh
water into the Arctic Ocean and this could affect
global ocean currents.
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Bright Ideas
General Electric plans to
cut solar installation costs by half
Project 90 by 2030 supports South African school
children and managers reduce their carbon footprint
through its Club programme
Bath & North East Somerset Council in the United
Kingdom has installed
smart LED carriageway lighting that automatically
adjusts to light and traffic levels
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration and the American Public Gardens
Association are mounting an
educational exhibit at Longwood Gardens
showing the link between temperature and planting
zones
The energy-efficient
Crowne Plaza Copenhagen Towers hotel is powered by
renewable and sustainable sources, including integrated
solar photovoltaics and guest-powered
bicycles
El Hierro, one of the Canary Islands, plans to
generate 80 per cent of its energy from renewable
sources
The green roof on the
Remarkables Primary School in New Zealand reduces
stormwater runoff, provides insulation and doubles as an
outdoor classroom
The
Weather Info for All project aims to roll out up to
five thousand automatic weather observation stations
throughout Africa
SolSource
turns its own waste heat into electricity or stores it in
thermal fabrics, harnessing the sun's energy for
cooking and electricity for low-income
families
The
Wave House uses vegetation for its architectural and
environmental qualities, and especially in terms of
thermal insulation
The Mbale
compost-processing plant in Uganda produces cheaper
fertilizer and reduces greenhouse gas
emissions
At Casa Grande,
Frito-Lay has reduced energy consumption by nearly a
fifth since 2006 by, amongst other things, installing a
heat recovery system to preheat cooking oil
More Bright
Ideas...
< Updated: April 29th 2015
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