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Tiempo Climate Newswatch

News Archive 2006



 

About the Cyberlibrary

The Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary was developed by Mick Kelly and Sarah Granich on behalf of the Stockholm Environment Institute and the International Institute for Environment and Development, with sponsorship from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.

While every effort is made to ensure that information on this site, and on other sites that are referenced here, is accurate, no liability for loss or damage resulting from use of this information can be accepted.

Week ending December 31st 2006

Ten thousand American scientists have signed a statement protesting political interference in the scientific process. Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists, the statement has the backing of 52 Nobel Laureates. "It's very difficult to make good public policy without good science, and it's even harder to make good public policy with bad science," said Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security. "In the last several years, we've seen an increase in both the misuse of science and I would say an increase of bad science in a number of very important issues; for example, in global climate change, international peace and security, and water resources."

The Union of Concerned Scientists has compiled an 'A to Z' guide that documents recent allegations of censorship and political interference in federal science. In the area of climate change, the guide cites a case uncovered in 2003 when the Bush administration tried to make a series of changes to a draft report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA report stated that human activity is contributing significantly to climate change. According to an internal EPA memo, White House officials demanded so many qualifying words such as "potentially" and "may" that the result would have been to insert "uncertainty... where there is essentially none."

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"It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone intensity will occur if the climate continues to warm" is the consensus view of an international group of 125 experts. The group also described an "increase in precipitation associated with [tropical cyclone] systems" in a warmer climate as a "robust result" of recent research. Meeting in Costa Rica in November 2006 at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the group underlined the complexities that affect long-term prediction of cyclone characteristics and called for more research on the link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity as many important issues remain unresolved. Nevertheless, the closing words of the workshop statement observe that "despite the diversity of research opinions on this issue it is agreed that if there has been a recent increase in tropical cyclone activity that is largely anthropogenic in origin, then humanity is faced with a substantial and unanticipated threat."

The scientists stress that "no individual events in [recent] years can be attributed directly to the recent warming of the global oceans." They conclude that the continuous increase in economic damage and disruption caused by tropical cyclones in recent decades is largely the result of increasing coastal populations, increasing insured values in coastal areas and, possibly, rising sensitivity of modern societies to infrastructure disruption. The workshop statement warns that "for developing countries large loss of human life will continue as the increasing coastal populations are a result of population growth and social factors that are not easily countered."

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The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is launching an initiative, ClimDev Africa, aimed at providing vital climate information for development needs in Africa. The ten-year programme, which will be African-led, will cost about US$200 million. "African countries and people are subject to severe drought, flooding, food shortages and disease. And, most of these natural disasters are related to climate. Africa is also lagging [behind] the rest of the world in terms of development," says GCOS official William Westermeyer. The aim of the initiative is to improve climate monitoring and risk management.

The strategy will be to provide the climate information needed to manage more effectively crises, such as severe drought and flooding, linked to climate change. "With regard to health, malaria is a very big thing. And, it turns out with better climate information, particularly knowing about things like the onset of a new El Niño for example, you can predict where malaria outbreaks are likely to occur several months in advance. With better information, that can help you prepare those areas to avoid the worst impacts," Westermeyer observes. GCOS is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization.

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Week ending December 24th 2006

India claims that the rich countries of the world have not delivered on promises to transfer technology to combat global warming. "We had hoped for much larger foreign direct investment. We are disappointed by the scale of foreign technology under the Clean Development Mechanism," said Prodipto Ghosh at the Ministry of Forests and Environment. "Adaptation will require tens of billions of dollars a year," he says. The Indian government has set up an adaptation fund and one expert reckons that the nation is ahead of many developing countries in managing the climate problem. "Adaptation is the same as development as it is basically about improving people's ability to deal with adversity whether it be adverse weather conditions or poverty," comments Bilal Rahill, South Asia specialist with the World Bank. "India has a number of development programmes that have inherent, built-in adaptation aspects."

India's carbon emissions rose by a third between 1992 and 2002, according to the World Bank's Little Green Data Book. Yet, says environment minister A Raja, "India is very little in terms of emissions and we are not the biggest polluters when compared to the developed nations." "We are not doing any harm to the entire world," he continued. "We are, in spite of the developmental activities taking place in this country, very categorical that our emissions are below three per cent [of global emissions] which is within limits." Nevertheless, action is needed say environmentalists. "We understand that the country is on a development path and that India still needs to provide energy to much of its population," said K Srinivas of Greenpeace India. "But that doesn't mean we need to rely on primary sources of energy like coal to do that. There are so many other sources of renewable energy which we should be focusing more on."

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global carbon emissions could rise by 55 per cent by 2030 unless "urgent" action is taken. Developing countries would account for three-quarters of the increase, passing the OECD nations in terms of total emissions by as early as 2012. "This increase [from developing countries] is faster than that of their share in energy demand, because their incremental energy use is more carbon-intensive than that of the OECD and transitional economies. In general, they use more coal and less gas," states the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook.

China may overtake the United States as the world's largest emitter before 2010, according to the IEA. The prediction is "not impossible," according to Chen Ying of the Research Centre for Sustainable Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. But "to put a penalty on China would be unfair," says Fatih Birol, who is chief economist at the IEA. "After all, coal fuelled the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom." IEA executive director Claude Mandil called on governments to adopt policies that would move the world onto a sustainable energy path. "The good news," he said, "is that these policies are very cost-effective. There are additional upfront costs involved, but they are quickly outweighed by savings in fuel expenditures. And the extra investment by consumers is less than the reduction in investment in energy-supply infrastructure. Demand-side investments in more efficient electrical goods are particularly economic; on average, an additional US$1 invested in more efficient electrical equipment and appliances avoids more than US$2 in investment in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure."

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The Brazilian state of Pará has designated an area the size of England as a conservation area. "If any tropical rainforest on Earth remains intact a century from now, it will be this portion of northern Amazonia," says Russell Mittermeier of Conservation International. "The region has more undisturbed rainforest than anywhere else, and the new protected areas being created by Pará State represent a historic step toward ensuring that they continue to conserve the region's rich biodiversity, due in large part to the governor's visionary achievement."

The protected region will be 16.4 million hectares in extent. With neighbouring protected areas in Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana, it forms a green corridor known as the Guyana Shield, which contains some of the world's richest habitats. About one third of the area will be totally protected against any agricultural, industrial or domestic development. "Traditional communities will be living in these areas... They will be allowed to use the forest in a sustainable way but this will not involve the clear-cutting of the forest," said state governor Simão Jatene. Road-building, logging, agriculture, mining and any other destructive, non-sustainable activity would be banned or strictly controlled. "If anyone tries to do this illegally, it will be detected by satellites," he warned.

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Week ending December 17th 2006

The European Commission (EC) is demanding deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions than currently proposed by member states. Of the ten plans submitted for approval, only the United Kingdom's proposal was passed. Overall, the EC called for further reductions totalling seven per cent. "I think that with today's decisions the European Union will affirm its leadership role in fighting climate change and also our strong commitment to achieving the Kyoto Protocol targets," said environment commissioner Stavros Dimas. The European Union needs to recover from the impact of the first phase of its emissions trading scheme, which saw carbon prices crash after member states allocated more emissions permits than needed to industry.

Reaction to the decision was mixed. The German government described the action as "totally unacceptable" and vowed to challenge the ruling. "It's slightly stricter than I'd expected," commented Mats Ahl of German utility RWE. Michael Grubb of the Carbon Trust in the United Kingdom welcomed the move, saying that the European Union has "done a lot to create a level playing field." He commended the decision to cut back on only those plans where there were clear grounds for doing so, avoiding the "soft option of trying to cut everyone back by a similar amount." Germany's request to free new industrial installations from emissions restrictions would, he argued, have given free emissions rights to new coal power stations.

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More than fifty Native American tribes met at the first Tribal Lands Climate Conference December 5-6th near the Lower Colorado River. "The issues and challenges caused by climate change being discussed during the Conference currently affect, and will continue to affect, all tribes on a global scale. This forum brings tribes together to address the issues and challenges, in efforts to one day find solutions. Native Americans can provide key inspiration regarding global warming and its impact on our world, unite broad stakeholder support, and demonstrate actions that alleviate global warming impacts," said Garrit Voggesser of the National Wildlife Federation's Tribal Lands Conservation Program. The meeting was hosted by the Cocopah Indian Tribe and National Wildlife Federation.

All participants reported changes in climate and wildlife that they saw as part of a long-term trend. "We basically have two seasons now," said Robert Gomez of the Taos Pueblo Environmental Office in northern New Mexico. "Hot and dry, and cold and dry." As wildlife migrate in response to climate trends, "we don't have the legal right to follow them," said Terry Williams, fisheries and natural resources commissioner for the Tulalip Tribes. If nothing is done, "within the next 20 to 25 years, our culture will be terminated, because the necessary species will be gone." The conference considered response options. For example, the Nez Perce Tribe in Idaho is growing trees for carbon sequestration. In Alaska, indigenous high school students launched a climate change awareness campaign, which prompted the state legislature to create a climate change commission. The campaign also resulted in the signing of a climate pact by the mayors of Anchorage and North Pole and several tribal resolutions on global warming.

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A study of the link between ocean temperature and phytoplankton production suggests that higher temperatures will mean adverse effects on the entire oceanic food web as phytoplankton productivity drops. Analysis of recent satellite data shows "this very tight coupling between production and climate," said lead author Michael Behrenfeld of Oregon State University in the United States. Phytoplankton need nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphates and iron, from colder water lying beneath the ocean surface, he explained. As the surface warms, these nutrients become less accessible. As less food is produced by phytoplankton the oceans get bluer in colour.

The European Alps are "currently experiencing the warmest period... in 1,300 years," reports Reinhard Böhm of Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Warm weather during this past autumn and lack of snow has raised concerns in Austrian ski resorts. Wilma Himmelfreundpointner of the St. Anton Tourist Office says that snow machines cannot produce all the snow that is needed when temperatures and sunshine levels are high. In Switzerland, "the start in the skiing season was certainly not a success," said Daniela Baer for Switzerland Tourism. "But on the other hand we had an extremely strong September and October. The summer season was just extended." Over Europe as a whole, autumn 2006 was the warmest on record, which extends back to the 18th century.

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Week ending December 10th 2006

Raising cattle contributes more to global warming than transportation, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). "Livestock are one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems," commented lead author Henning Steinfeld. "Urgent action is required to remedy the situation." The study estimates that cattle production generates 9 per cent of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions, 65 per cent of nitrous oxide emissions and 37 per cent of methane emissions. Global meat production is expected to double by 2050.

The report concludes that "this high level of emissions opens up large opportunities for climate change mitigation through livestock actions." Proposals include increasing efficiency in livestock and feedcrop production, which would reduce emissions from deforestation and pasture degradation, restoring historical losses of soil carbon through conservation tillage, cover crops, agroforestry and other measures including restoration of desertified pastures, improved diets to reduce enteric fermentation, improved manure management and biogas production. It is suggested that the Clean Development Mechanism be used to finance the spread of biogas and silvopastoral initiatives and, as methodologies emerge, other livestock-related options such as soil carbon sequestration through rehabilitation of degraded pastures.

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Atmospheric levels of methane have stabilized, according to an analysis from the University of California at Irvine, in the United States. After rising by over one per cent a year through 1978 to 1987, growth rates slowed over subsequent years, averaging close to zero over the period December 1998 to December 2005. "What we are seeing now is spurts of methane with very little net change," says Sherwood Rowland of the University of California. The variability from year to year appears related to short-lived events that perturb the atmospheric chemistry, such as volcanic eruptions or large fires .

"The scientific community agrees that the pause is source-driven rather than sink-driven, that is, caused by decreasing emissions of methane," says research leader Isobel Simpson, but "I don't believe we have reached a consensus on which sources have decreased and by how much." The halt in the trend may be related to the economic slow-down in the nations of the former Soviet Union, which has reduced energy use. Repair of leaky oil and gas lines and storage units or a decrease in emissions from coal mining and rice paddies may have played a part. Rowland says that the development is unexpected "because there isn’t much in the way of programmes to reduce methane emissions." "We will gain some ground on global warming if methane is not as large a contributor in the future as it has been in the past century,", he says. But he goes on to warns against complacency given limited understanding of just what has caused the trend to halt.

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Typhoon Durian struck the Philippines Thursday November 30th, with winds gusting up to 265km per hour. More than 830,000 people were affected as floodwater engulfed towns and triggered mudslides. Over 1000 lives were lost. The province of Albay was worst hit. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of national calamity, which permits funds to be released more quickly to support rescue efforts. "We are trying as much as possible to broaden our reach," she said.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) sent emergency health supplies for 10,000 people for three months in Albay province, with additional medicines, food and shelter supplies to follow. UNICEF is appealing for US$310,000 to address the health needs of evacuees, improve damaged water and sanitation facilities, provide "school in a box" kits and establish child-friendly spaces for traumatized children.

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Week ending December 3rd 2006

The 2006 Climate Change Conference, held in Nairobi, Kenya, ended 17th November with a range of decisions supporting developing country efforts to respond to the threat of climate change. The Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation was agreed, as was management of the Adaptation Fund. The meeting also set the rules for the Special Climate Change Fund. "The conference has delivered on its promise to support the needs of developing countries," said Conference President and Kenyan Minister for Natural Resources and the Environment Kivutha Kibwana. "The spirit of Nairobi has been truly remarkable."

There was criticism of the level of financial support currently committed. "The Adaptation Fund... may raise at most 300 million Euros for the period between 2008 and 2012. But the World Bank predicts that the most vulnerable developing countries would actually need one hundred times this amount, annually," commented Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth Europe. "Rich countries are largely responsible for the climate crisis. As a matter of justice, they must now commit to far greater contributions to this fund." There remained concern that no deadline had been set for resolution of a post-2012 agreement to follow on from the Kyoto Protocol. "While progress was made in Nairobi, our leaders must recognize that scientific evidence and public opinion demands much stronger action than what was agreed," said Hans Verolme of WWF.

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China is to build one the world's largest solar power stations. The 100MW facility will be located near Dunhuang, in Gansu province in northwest China. "Covering a total area of 31,200 square metres, Dunhuang boasts 3,362 hours of sunshine every year and is hailed as a prime area for solar energy development, with its easy access to electricity transmission and communications," according to the Xinhua news agency. The project is part of the China Desert Photoelectricity Project, supported by the National Development Reform Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS) and WWF. According to Gan Lin of WWF, desert areas such as the Hexi Corridor in Gansu province and the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are suitable for large solar projects. It has been estimated that exploiting one per cent of that desert area to generate solar power would have covered China's total electricity consumption in 2003.

Currently, 70 per cent of China's energy is derived from fossil fuel combustion and the nation is the world's second largest consumer of oil. China's proven coal reserve will be exhausted in 81 years, petroleum in 15 years and natural gas in 30 years at the current development rate, according to an expert at IEECAS. By 2020, 15 per cent of the nations' energy needs must be met from renewable sources. "In China, introducing renewables is good industrial development strategy, it's not part of the climate-change argument," comments Eric Martinot of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC in the United States. "Local air pollution is playing a big factor in driving many of these arguments, as ordinary people don't accept this kind of pollution." According to the State Environment Protection Agency, pollution cost China three per cent of its GDP - £34 billion - in 2004. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi, speaker-elect of the United States House of Representatives, has written an open letter to Chinese President Hu Jintao, proposing a partnership on climate change based on a New Shanghai Communique. The letter, which can be read as somewhat patronizing in tone, may not be well-received as Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China's record on trade and human rights for some decades.

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Some bird populations have already declined by up to 90 per cent, according to a report on the impact of climate change on bird species from conservation group WWF. "Robust scientific evidence shows that climate change is now affecting birds’ behaviour," according to co-author Karl Mallon of Climate Risk, in Sydney, Australia. "We are seeing migratory birds failing to migrate, and climate change pushing increasing numbers of birds out of synchrony with key elements of their ecosystems," he continued. "Birds have long been used as indicators of environmental change, and with this report we see they are the quintessential 'canaries in the coal mine' when it comes to climate change," said WWF's Hans Verolme.

Migratory birds and sea birds are particularly at risk. The report cites the unprecedented breeding crash of North Sea sea birds in 2004 as an example of acute vulnerability to environmental change. Common guillemots, Arctic skuas, great skuas, kittiwakes, Arctic terns and other sea birds in Shetland and Orkney colonies were affected by a shortage of their prey, sandeels. The shortage is believed to have been caused by ocean warming. The report calls for a major change in bird conservation as the effectiveness of current approaches based on protected areas is weakened by global warming.

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Week ending November 26th 2006

Convention on the Rights of the Child November 20th is Universal Children's Day, a day of worldwide fraternity and understanding between children.

"Instead of being economically defensive, let us start being more politically courageous," said Kofi Annan, secretary-general of the United Nations, addressing the 2006 Climate Change Conference in Nairobi, Kenya. The conference "must send a clear, credible signal that the world’s political leaders take climate change seriously," he continued. "The question is not whether climate change is happening, but whether, in the face of this emergency, we ourselves can change fast enough." He attacked those critical of the case for action. "A few diehard sceptics continue trying to sow doubt. They should be seen for what they are: out of step, out of arguments and out of time." Calling on the governments of the industrialized nations to "do much more to bring their emissions down," he referred to a "frightening lack of leadership" in meeting the challenge of climate change. Finally, he introduced the new Nairobi Framework.

The Nairobi Framework has been assembled by six United Nations agencies to help developing nations, particularly in Africa, obtain increased funding to promote clean energy technology, such as wind and hydropower, and manage the climate threat. As part of the initiative, the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) have set up a partnership to build country capacity to take part in carbon finance funds and to decrease vulnerability to climate change. "Investments in roads, railways, hospitals, fisheries and power systems are underway across the sub-Saharan African region but few if any are being planned with future climatic impacts in mind," said Achim Steiner, UNEP head. "Some of these projects, for example a new dam, may be increasingly vulnerable as a result of more intense droughts whereas others - for example a coastal road scheme - may be at risk from sea level rise," he continued. "We need in-depth studies and national adaptation plans but we also need a rapid response service so that a minister, faced with a planning application, can pick up the phone and have ‘climate proofing’ expertise on his or her doorstep within a matter of days."

The 2006 Climate Change Conference re-affirmed the goal of agreeing an extension to the Kyoto Protocol for the post-2012 period. This would be achieved "as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is no gap" before the new agreement comes into force. No deadline was set, disappointing some observers. "Ministers are simply not reflecting the urgency which is being felt in the real world," charged Catherine Pearce of Friends of the Earth UK. "We are still not seeing the bold leadership which is needed here." There has been discussion of increasing flexibility within the post-2012 agreement in order to draw in Kyoto outsiders such as the United States and major developing nations such as China and India. "We have to make it attractive for countries to take part," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "I see people looking at a larger menu of options and I find that very constructive." Finally, conference participants agreed a minimal review of existing measures under the Kyoto Protocol, to take place in 2008. Developing countries had been concerned that the review might result in demands that they adopt binding emissions targets.

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An international team of researchers has concluded that the world's forests may have reached a "turning point." "Forest area and biomass are still being lost in such important countries as Brazil and Indonesia, but an increasing number of nations show gains," the report states. The Forest Identity report shows a rise in biomass and carbon storage capacity over the past 15 years in 22 of the 50 countries studied. "This great reversal in land use could stop the styling of a 'Skinhead Earth' and begin a great restoration of the landscape by 2050, expanding the global forest by ten per cent - about 300 million hectares, the area of India," said Jesse Ausubel at Rockefeller University in New York, United States.

The report cites government policy, in forest protection and the preservation of farmland, as a major factor in reducing deforestation trends. In Europe, timber imports, sustainable forestry, energy technology, farm technology and migration from rural to urban areas have played a part. Pekka Kauppi at the University of Helsinki, Finland, comments that "without depopulation or impoverishment, increasing numbers of countries are experiencing transitions in forest area and density. While complacency would be misplaced, our insights provide grounds for optimism about the prospects for returning forests."

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A new report from the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change concludes that the vulnerability of the African continent to climate change is even greater than previously estimated. Thirty per cent of Africa's coastal infrastructure could be inundated and between 25 and 40 per cent of species' habitats lost by 2085. By that time, cereal crop yields could have dropped by up to five per cent, with yields of subsistence crops also declining. "We are already seeing climate-related changes in my country," said lead author Balgis Osman Elasha of the Climate Change Unit in the Sudanese Ministry of the Environment. "The Gum Arabic belt, an economically important crop, has shifted southwards below latitude 14 degrees north and the rains which used to occur from mid June to the end of August now start in mid July until the end of September with important ramifications for agriculture and livelihoods."

Responding to the report, Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, said that "climate change is underway and the international community must respond by offering well targeted assistance to those countries in the front-line which are facing increasing impacts such as extreme droughts and floods and threats to infrastructure from phenomena like rising sea levels. Part of the action, part of the adaptation response and part of this responsibility to Africa, must include significant improvements in Africa’s climate and weather monitoring capabilities." Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization observed that "Africa is the largest of all tropical landmasses and, at 30 million square km, is about a fifth of the world’s total land area. Yet the climate observing system in Africa is in a far worse and deteriorating state than that of any other continent."

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Week ending November 19th 2006

Climate conference, Nairobi, Kenya The next stage of the climate negotiations is taking place in Nairobi, Kenya, November 6-17th. Daily reports, the ECO newsletter and webcasts are available.

"Climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face," said Kenyan environment minister Kivutha Kibwana, president of the 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, opening the meeting. "We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of Africa," he continued. The first week of the conference saw disagreement between delegates on the deadline for agreeing a post-Kyoto accord, with targets ranging from the end of 2008, through 2009 to 2010. The fact the United States President George W Bush steps down in January 2009 may prove a critical factor.

"I think it's important to the market that an agreement is reached without delay," said Ron Levi of brokers GFI. "Frustration is justified," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "It's going slowly. The problem is that countries' interests conflict in a number of areas." Harlan Watson, United States climate negotiator, said that he did not see any change in policy as a result of the mid-term elections that saw the Republican Party lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Australia won the initial Fossil of the Day award from the Climate Action Network by comparing Australian vulnerability to climate change to that of Africa and the Pacific island nations.

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A new report, Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa, finds that small, rain-fed crop and livestock subsistence farming systems in arid and semi-arid areas are the communities most vulnerable to climate change in Africa. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and large parts of Niger and Chad are particularly at risk. "While a peasant farmer may not understand climate change, he appreciates that it is increasingly becoming difficult to time the planting seasons as rainfall is unpredictable," commented Beneah Daniel Odhiambo, from Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya. "As a result, there is high crop failure resulting in famine in many parts of Africa. Prolonged seasons of drought also cause the migration of people to other areas and is a potential source of conflict between communities competing for scarce resources."

"People will experience great problems unless there is investment in adaptation options," warns Mario Herrero of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya, the institution that led the project. The report concludes that Africa must learn to adapt to the world's changing climate if lives and livelihoods are to be saved. "These findings present an immense challenge," said ILRI's Tom Owiyo. "Climate change presents a global ethical challenge as well as a development, scientific and organizational challenge in Africa."

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Two new reports define management approaches that could help two vulnerable ecosystems, mangroves and coral reefs, cope with climate change and other stresses. Published by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Nature Conservancy, the reports "give a clear positive message: while we cannot stop climate change in the short term, we can help tropical marine ecosystems survive. If reef managers and politicians follow the measures proposed in these publications, we may be able to reverse the trend," says Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of IUCN's Global Marine Programme.

The proposed measures are intended to keep other disturbances and threats away, making these ecosystems healthier and thus more resilient to climate impacts. "We need to minimize human impacts such as pollution, overfishing or unsustainable coastal development. Then the coral reefs have a bigger chance of coming back after bleaching and of adapting to rising sea temperatures or more acid waters," according to Gabriel Grimsditch of IUCN. Particularly healthy and climate-change-resilient sites should be protected as these may be able to help restore degraded coral reefs and mangroves in the future. Monitoring of coral reefs before, during and after a bleaching event is needed to raise awareness amongst managers and politicians.

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Week ending November 12th 2006

Climate conference, Nairobi, Kenya The next stage of the climate negotiations opens in Nairobi, Kenya, on November 6th. Daily reports and webcasts will be available. November 6th is also the International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the economies in transition (EITs) of eastern and central Europe grew by 4.1 per cent over the period 2000-2004, according to the latest data compiled by the Climate Change Secretariat. "This means that industrialized countries will need to intensify their efforts to implement strong policies which reduce greenhouse gas emissions," warned executive secretary Yvo de Boer. Over the period 1990-2004, total emissions from the industrialized nations have fallen by 3.3 per cent. Much of this, though, has been due to massive declines in emissions from the EITs during the 1990s, a trend that has now been reversed.

The 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, consisting of the second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP2), in conjunction with the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP12), is taking place from November 6-17th in Nairobi, Kenya. Some delegates doubt that much progress will be made at these sessions. But "the clock is ticking," says Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme. "We are in fact in some ways with our backs against the wall if you want to have a post-2012 regime in place. We need to keep moving." While arguing that "we need to act very urgently or it's going to get very expensive," Yvo de Boer, who leads the Climate Change Secretariat, told Reuters that there is no pressure yet to set a deadline for completing a post-Kyoto agreement.

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The Stern Review of climate economics, released last week, has received criticism from a number of quarters. Not surprisingly, the Australian government, which has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, rejected the report's conclusions. Arguing that an effective international agreement must include all nations, Prime Minister John Howard told coalition members of parliament not to get "mesmerized" by one report. "If everybody is in, I am prepared to lead Australia in," he said. "But I am not prepared to lead Australia into an agreement that is going to betray the interests of the working men and women of this country and destroy the natural advantage that providence gave us." The United States vigorously defended its position as the report was launched. White House spokesman Tony Snow said that President Bush "has, in fact, contrary to stereotype, been actively engaged in trying to fight climate change and will continue to do so."

Christian Aid welcomed the Stern Review but warned that its conclusions would not lead to adequate protection for millions of poor people. "Talk of economic dangers is all very well but a real danger still remains for poor people in the developing world whose futures depend on our willingness to act," commented Christian Aid's Andrew Pendleton. "If we follow the report's conclusions, we may avert economic bankruptcy but we will still be teetering on the brink of moral bankruptcy." Christian Aid is concerned that Stern dismisses a carbon dioxide equivalent stabilization level of 450 parts per million as too expensive, but, in reality, poor people are already struggling to cope with existing climate change as a result of an atmosphere polluted with 430ppm. At Stern's higher target levels, "large parts of the developing world would be exposed to a much greater risk of disaster and misery," Pendleton said.

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A new report from the World Bank argues that, if left standing to provide carbon storage, forests may be worth five times as much as when felled. "The trees are worth more alive, storing carbon, than they would be worth if burned and transformed to unproductive fields," says lead author Kenneth Chomitz. "Right now, people living at the forest’s edge can’t tap that value." Tropical deforestation accounts for about a fifth of carbon emissions, with five per cent or more of these forests lost a decade. "By the middle of the century, vast tropical forests may be reduced to just shreds of what they once were," warns Chomitz.

"Global carbon finance can be a powerful incentive to stop deforestation," according to François Bourguignon at the World Bank. "Compensation for avoiding deforestation could help developing countries to improve forest governance and boost rural incomes, while helping the world at large to mitigate climate change more vigorously." Kathy Sierra, also with the World Bank, reckons that a "comprehensive framework that integrates sustainable forest management into the global strategy for mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity" is needed. The report considers approaches to limiting deforestation in different forest areas, designed to tackle problems specific to each region.

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Week ending November 5th 2006

International Day of Action on Climate Change November 4th is an International Day of Action on Climate Change, to coincide with the Nairobi climate conference.

According to the Stern Review of climate economics, "our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th Century." Commenting on the report, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that "this disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our lifetime." "Investment now will pay us back many times in the future, not just environmentally but economically as well," he continued. "For every £1 invested now we can save £5, or possibly more, by acting now."

The report, which was commissioned by the British government, considers the economic impacts of future climate trends and the costs of taking action to avert the threat by reducing emissions and limiting impacts. It concludes that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases will cost about one per cent of annual global output by 2050. With no action, climate change will reduce global consumption per head by between five and 20 per cent by that time. Citing climate change as the greatest market failure the world has seen, the Stern Review advocates carbon pricing, policies to drive the development and deployment of low-carbon and high-efficieny technology, and action to remove barriers to energy efficiency and to foster individual responses. The report's author, Sir Nicholas Stern, considers that "the conclusions of the Review are essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally."

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The president of Kiribati, Anote Tong, has warned Australia and New Zealand that climate change could create countless environmental refugees. "If we are talking about our island states submerging in ten years' time, we simply have to find somewhere else to go," he said. "If we become refugees, then so be it. I think the international community has to get used to it." He was speaking at a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum in Fiji. "Our islands are very flat, as flat as a table," said Paani Laupepa, representing Tuvalu, in an interview with Reuters. "It will be the whole population, the entire 10,000 people will be affected. We have a right to live in this environment and now we are being forced away."

Laupepa feels that Australia "has no commitment" to solving the Pacific Islanders' problems. Responding to a recent report on global warming impacts in the Pacific, Australian environment minister, Ian Campbell, has said that Australia "has always stood by our Pacific neighbours in times of need and that will never change." The focus, though, should be on helping islanders to stay in their home countries. New Zealand has announced a plan to accept up to 5000 seasonal workers from island states. "It's a foot in the door," Laupepa said. "We are very grateful. Labour mobility is an opportunity to gain something useful in life."

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The United States and the European Union pledged to increase collaboration and explore areas for further work on renewable energy, clean coal and other climate-related policies during a two-day meeting in Finland. The meeting was the latest in a series of dialogues that was established at the Eleventh Conference of the Parties to the climate convention last year. Paula Dobriansky, head of the United States delegation, said that the two sides shared "very common goals and objectives" on the climate issue, adding there were "multiple" ways of achieving the results.

James Connaughton, of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, cited cleaner coal as a major area for cooperation. "Coal is one of the biggest challenges because it's the area where we need some of the most significant investments and technological applications," he said. He also called for joint standards on biofuels. "It's very important for us to come to agreement on the basic standards for those fuel grades so that manufacturers can produce vehicles and engines that can use the fuel globally."

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Week ending October 29th 2006

United Nations Day October 24th is United Nations Day, the anniversary of the entry into force of the United Nations Charter in 1945.

"The potential for conflict arising from the consequences of global warming" represents a major trend that "we now see", warns Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. "If global warming trends continue,... they will have significant impact on where people can live, grow food and whether people will have to leave," he said in an interview with Reuters. Steiner was attending the Second Intergovernmental Review of the Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities in Beijing, China.

The Beijing meeting saw the release of a new report on coral reefs, entitled Our Precious Coasts. The study underlines the importance of protecting the natural resilience of coral reefs in order to strengthen their resistance to long-term climate change. "If we fail to protect the coastlines from unchecked piecemeal development, or protect the water sheds from deforestation, huge amounts of sewage and sediment loads will reduce the ability of reefs to recover dramatically. Once they are overgrown, it is difficult for them to recover, and over time they change or even die entirely," says Christian Nellemann, from UNEP GRID-Arendal in Norway.

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"At present, the financial resources provided to developing countries do not suffice to meet the needs for mitigation and adaptation as required under the United Nations Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto Protocol," says Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the climate treaty Secretariat. Addressing participants at the conference Make Markets Work for Climate held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, he called for a long-term legal framework to provide security for carbon markets and climate investments. "Whilst the Clean Development Mechanism has been gaining speed very rapidly, there would be a significant risk for the value of carbon beyond 2012 without a long-term provision for the carbon market," he warned. "To guarantee continuity for investments, a post-2012 agreement is urgently needed."

Kofi Annan, head of the United Nations, has warned that the true test of international environmental agreements remains implementation and enforcement. In a message to an environmental law colloquium in New York, in the United States, he said that "action on climate change is particularly urgent, given its profound implications for virtually every aspect of human well-being, from jobs and health to growth and security." "Until we stop treating climate change as a strictly environmental concern, and instead recognize the full nature of this threat, our action will fall short," he continued.

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The Pew Center on Global Climate Change has provided a guide for corporate decision makers, Getting Ahead of the Curve, that presents an in-depth assessment of the development of corporate strategies that take account of climate-related threats and opportunities. Authored by Andrew Hoffman of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor in the United States, the report concludes that businesses need to engage actively with government in the development of climate policy. "If you look at what is happening today at the state level and in the Congress, a proactive approach in the policy arena clearly makes sound business sense," said Eileen Claussen from the Pew Center. "In the corporate world, inaction is no longer an option."

As Japan reported that its greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 0.6 per cent over the past financial year, carbon credit trading between companies began under the nation's new voluntary scheme. "It's the first trial of a real emissions cap and trading system in Japan," reported Yasushi Ninomiya of the Ministry of the Environment. There are, though, criticisms of the scheme. "Our company will not join the voluntary emissions-trading scheme next year," said Nippon Electric Glass spokesman Kuniaki Kimura. "The government subsidies are not well linked to business investments to install equipment to cut emissions."

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Week ending October 22nd 2006

World Food Day October 16th is World Food Day. The theme for 2006 is "Investing in agriculture for food security".

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 854 million people around the world remain undernourished. Foreign aid for agriculture and rural development has declined from over US$9 billion per year in the early 1980s to less than US$5 billion in the late 1990s. At present, forty countries face food emergencies, with the worst situation in the Darfur region of the Sudan. According to a recent FAO report, "the already precarious food supply situation [in Darfur] may worsen if deteriorating security disrupts the main harvest due to start in the coming few weeks."

The FAO report, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, for October 2006 warns that prospects for the year's cereal harvest have deteriorated further due, amongst other things, to adverse weather conditions in Australia, Argentina, Brazil and South Asia. "The main concern is the declining stocks and whether supplies will be adequate to meet demand without world prices surging to even higher levels," the report states. The southern Africa region will require 542,000 tons of cereal for the 2006/7 season to meet predicted shortfalls. HIV/Aids, high unemployment and low purchasing power are cited as the main reasons for the continuing crisis in this region.

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October 9th was World Overshoot Day for 2006, the day on which humanity exhausted this year's renewable natural resources and began living beyond its ecological means, according to Global Footprint Network (GFN). Mathis Wackernagel, GFN executive director, warns that "humanity is living off its ecological credit card and can only do this by liquidating the planet’s natural resources. While this can be done for a short while, overshoot ultimately leads to the depletion of resources, such as the forests, oceans and agricultural land upon which our economy depends."

Humanity first went into ecological debt in 1987, when Overshoot Day was December 19th. By 1995, it had moved forward to November 21st. "By living so far beyond our environmental means, and running up ecological debts we make two mistakes. First, we deny millions globally who already lack access to sufficient land, food and clean water the chance to meet their needs. Secondly, we put the planet’s life support mechanisms in peril," said Andrew Simms, policy director of the new economics foundation, a GFN partner.

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Millions could become homeless in the Asia-Pacific region as sea levels rise by up to 50cm by the year 2070, warns a new report from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. "Vast areas of the Asia-Pacific are low lying, particularly the small-island states, as well as the large river deltas found in India and Bangladesh, Southeast Asia and China," note the authors. As sea-level rise tops 50cm, "large areas of Bangladesh, India, Vietnam are inundated and Kiribati, Fiji and the Maldives are reduced to just a small fraction of their current land area."

World Vision Australia head, Tim Costello, called for a review of national immigration policy, saying that "this is enlightened self-interest, because there are going to be so many environmental refugees knocking on our door, flooding here with the sea levels rise as predicted and... the failure of economics and crops because of the rain changes in so many of these countries." The study was commissioned by the Climate Change and Development Roundtable and was conducted by Ben Preston, Ramasamy Suppiah, Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols.

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Week ending October 15th 2006

Twenty nations from the industrialized and developing worlds met in Monterrey, Mexico, last week to discuss joint action on climate change. The G8 Plus Five Climate Change Dialogue is a result of the 2005 G8 summit. There was broad agreement amongst the participants on the need to limit future emissions of greenhouse gases. "Time is running out, and the size of the challenge is enormous," warned Mexican Environment Minister José Luis Luege. "The meeting has dramatized the need for comprehensive global action. The message about the need for early action is very strong," reported British Environment Secretary David Miliband.

Welcoming the consensus, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that the meeting "is a very important indicator of the desire of the world now to come together and deal with the issue of energy and the environment and how we make sure there is sustainable growth in the future. And the fact that you have got a dialogue now that involves America and India and China, as well as the European countries, is obviously very important for the future." Despite this optimism, progress is occurring in fits and starts. The World Bank described its new framework for investment in clean technology for developing countries but reported delays with the US$20 billion investment programme. The United States has reservations about aspects of the plan.

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Ozone loss over Antarctica reached a new record this year, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). "Such significant ozone loss requires very low temperatures in the stratosphere combined with sunlight. This year’s extreme loss of ozone can be explained by the temperatures above Antarctica reaching the lowest recorded in the area since 1979," reported ESA scientist Claus Zehner. The record-breaking nature of the 2006 hole is confirmed by data reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The thinner layer "will lead to more ultraviolet radiation on the ground," said Geir Braathen, WMO ozone expert.

Measurements from the ESA Envisat satellite show an ozone mass deficit (total ozone loss) over Antarctica of close to 40 million metric tons this year. The previous record loss occurred in 2000. The ozone hole has been the largest in surface area and in depth this year, with both records broken simultaneously. The WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme reported earlier this year the latest ozone recovery forecasts, which suggest that the ozone layer might return to pre-1980 levels by 2049 over much of Europe, North America, Asia, Australasia, Latin America and Africa. Over Antarctica, ozone recovery could be delayed until 2065.

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Rising pollution is having serious health, economic and environmental impacts on the world's oceans, according to a new study from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). "An estimated 80 per cent of marine pollution originates from the land and this could rise significantly by 2050 if, as expected, coastal populations double in just over 40 years time and action to combat pollution is not accelerated," said UNEP head Achim Steiner. "We have a long way to go politically, technically and financially if we are to hand over healthy and productive seas and oceans to the next generation."

The report identifies sewage as a major problem, in part because little progress has been made in this area. In many developing countries, it estimates, more then 80 per cent of sewage entering the coastal zone is untreated. "We perhaps in the 20th century thought we could use the oceans as our sewage treatment plants," said Steiner. "This sewage is not just something that goes into the sea and the sea does it for us anymore." The cost to remedy this problem would be at least US$56 billion. Marine litter, resource over-use and habitat destruction are also cited as serious impacts. Other areas in need of "urgent attention" include the impact of dams, new streams of chemicals and the state of wetlands. Efforts are needed to improve monitoring on continents such as Africa where data "remains fragmented and woefully low."

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Week ending October 8th 2006

Small Island Developing States have stressed their vulnerability to climate change and the need for energy efficiency and fair trade to protect their people against economic and environmental shocks during recent debates in the United Nations General Assembly. "To a Small Island Developing State, there are few things more important than securing the necessary assistance in order to build resilience against the many hazards that afflict the country on a consistent basis, including the violent storms that pass through our region even more frequently as a result of global warming," said Frederick Mitchell, Foreign Minister of the Bahamas. He called for the development of alternative energy sources "to make us less dependent on the current polluting technologies that supply our energy needs but threaten our sustainability." Petrus Compton, Foreign Minister of Saint Lucia, argued that "the international community, and in particular our developed partners, need to take more aggressive action to promote the development and distribution of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies in developed and developing countries alike." He advocated the establishment of a global renewable energy and energy efficiency fund.

Charles Savarin, Foreign Minister of Dominica, welcomed the Central Emergency Response Fund, which, he said, "will significantly enhance the capacity of the United Nations to more effectively respond to the increasing frequency of natural disasters brought about by climate change and global warming." On trade, Eamon Courtenay, the Foreign Minister of Belize, said the World Trade Organization had worsened conditions for his country. "There is something fundamentally unfair in a system which promises a development agenda and delivers suspended negotiations and less market access to vulnerable economies," he said. In an earlier debate, Redley Killion, Vice-President of the Federated States of Micronesia, warned that small island nations "are under greater threat than ever before," despite the fact that they contribute little themselves to the climate problem. Nauruan President Ludwig Scotty lamented the lack of any substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 or in implementing the commitments made at the Mauritius Summit last year.

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A decline in methane emissions from human activity during the 1990s, largely associated with less, or more efficient, use of natural gas, was responsible for the slower growth in atmospheric levels during that period, according to a recent study. Using observations and computer simulations, the research team determined that methane levels fell from a growth rate of 12 parts per billion (ppb) a year during the 1980s to 4 ppb a year in the 1990s. Methane emissions have increased since that time, but a reduction in wetland emissions caused by draining and climate change has offset the effect on concentrations in the atmosphere.

Paul Steele from CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research in Australia, reckons that "had it not been for this reduction in methane emissions from wetlands, atmospheric levels of methane would most likely have continued rising. This suggests that, if the drying trend is reversed and emissions from wetlands return to normal, atmospheric methane levels may increase again, worsening the problem of climate change." The recent rise in emissions from human activity is linked to fossil fuel use in north Asia. Though concerned about future trends, Jos Lelieveld, from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, believes that methane emissions are much easier to control than carbon. "In my opinion the easiest and most time-effective way to control climate change is to start acting on methane," he says.

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The world is warmer than it has been for 12,000 years, according to scientists from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and universities in the United States. Global temperature has risen by 0.2 degrees Celsius every decade for the past thirty years. The study, based on indirect evidence of past ocean temperatures, concludes that the recent warming has brought global temperature to within about one degree Celsius of the highest temperature of the past million years.

"The evidence implies that we are getting close to dangerous levels of human-made pollution," warned James Hansen, of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "If further global warming reaches two or three degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know," he said. "The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about three million years ago, when sea level was estimated to have been about 25 metres higher than today."

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Week ending October 1st 2006

Satellite images of the pack ice in the Arctic Ocean have revealed extensive clearance during summer 2006. "This situation is unlike anything observed in previous record low ice seasons," commented Mark Drinkwater of the European Space Agency. "It is highly imaginable that a ship could have passed from Spitzbergen or Northern Siberia through what is normally pack ice to reach the North Pole without difficulty," he continued. "If this anomaly trend continues, the North-East Passage or 'Northern Sea Route' between Europe and Asia will be open over longer intervals of time, and it is conceivable we might see attempts at sailing around the world directly across the summer Arctic Ocean within the next 10-20 years."

A new study from the University of Colorado reveals that the Greenland ice sheet is still losing mass. Between April 2004 and April 2006, the ice sheet lost ice at about two-and-a-half times the rate over the previous two years. "The acceleration rate really took off in 2004," said Isabella Velicogna of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. "We think the changes we are seeing are probably a pretty good indicator of the changing climatic conditions in Greenland, particularly in the southern region," she continued.

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An international conference on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 19th-21st September. Noting that "CDM gives flexibility to industrialized nations to meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by setting up environment-clean projects in developing countries," conference chair Mohammad al-Sabban, an adviser to the Saudi oil minister, described CDM as "a win for investor, a win for the project host country and a win for the environment." Saudi Minister Ali Al-Naimi confirmed his nation's commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, though he did warn that "solutions, such as solar, wind, nuclear or hydroelectric power may contribute to carbon dioxide emissions reductions, but they cannot meet increasing global demand for energy." Inaugurating the meeting, Riyadh Governor Prince Salman called on the business community to take advantage of opportunities provided by new investment avenues, such CDM.

Criticizing industrialized nations for not investing more in the scheme, acting secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Mohammed Barkindo claimed that "the mechanism is making relatively insignificant benefits to developing countries given what was initially envisaged." With the number of CDM projects rising to 300 this year, Yvo de Boer, recently appointed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary, considers that "via international carbon finance, there is a potential to generate up to 100 billion dollars per year in green investment flow to developing countries... None of the other types of financial resources available to these countries have a potential of this scale."

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The state of California is suing six automobile manufacturers over global warming. Accusing the carmakers of creating a "public nuisance", the complaint states that climate change "injuries have caused the people to suffer billions of dollars in damages, including millions of dollars of funds expended to determine the extent, location and nature of future harm and to prepare for and mitigate those harms, and billions of dollars of current harm to the value of flood control infrastructure and natural resources." The measure builds on recent initiatives by California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"While the Bush administration continues to burrow its head in the sand, California has taken out a whole arsenal to combat emissions," commented Daniel Becker of the Sierra Club. The Automobile Alliance noted that manufacturers were already working to produce more fuel-efficient cars and argued that "using nuisance suits to address global warming would involve the courts in deciding political questions beyond their jurisdiction." "This opens the door to lawsuits targeting any activity that uses fossil fuel for energy," the Alliance statement continued.

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Week ending September 24th 2006

Switzerland and Kenya led a two-day meeting, September 14-15th, in Rüschlikon, Switzerland, to discuss the future role of developing nations within the climate treaty. At least seventeen developing nations took part. "We want to reinforce the dialogue launched last year in Montreal, by concentrating on reduction actions, which would be possible in all countries," Swiss environment minister Moritz Leuenberger said. Technical or financial support was also on the agenda. "This support has to take account of the priorities for Africa and other developing countries. Such priorities will be an important subject of discussions here in Rüschlikon, and [at the next Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty] in Nairobi in November," commented Leuenberger.

Earlier in the week, Asian and European politicians meeting in Helsinki, Finland, pledged to continue to cut greenhouse gases after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in the year 2012. The summit declaration calls for "the widest possible cooperation" in fighting global warming. "In comparison to ten years ago, now all countries recognize that climate change is an important issue, that we must continue Kyoto, that the time after 2012 must be in our sights and that we must do everything possible to improve energy efficiency and, at the same time, facilitate economic growth," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The declaration does, however, stop short of setting actual targets.

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Changes in solar activity have made a "negligible" contribution to global warming over the past century, according to a new study. "Our results imply that over the past century climate change due to human influences must far outweigh the effects of changes in the sun's brightness, said co-author Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States. "This basically rules out the sun as the cause of global warming," concludes Henk Spruit of the Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics in Garching, Germany.

Tom Wigley also contributed to a recent survey of the link between human activity and ocean warming in areas important for the formation of tropical storms. "The important conclusion is that the observed sea surface temperature increases in these hurricane breeding grounds cannot be explained by natural processes alone," he said. The analysis suggests that "with increasing sea surface temperatures, we can expect more intense hurricanes," reports co-author Nathan Gillett of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom.

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A second Green Revolution is needed to feed the world's growing population, according to Jacques Diouf, head of the Food and Agriculture Organization The original Green Revolution, which doubled world food production, "relied on the lavish use of inputs such as water, fertilizer and pesticides," he said. "The task ahead may well prove harder. We not only need to grow an extra one billion tonnes of cereals a year by 2050 but do so from a diminishing resource base of land and water in many of the worlds regions, and in an environment increasingly threatened by global warming and climate change."

Diouf reckons that the "new Green Revolution will be less about introducing new, high-performance varieties of wheat or rice, important as they are, and much more about making wiser and more efficient use of the natural resources available to us." The place to start was at village level and in developing countries themselves. "Investing in agriculture is usually low in the order of priorities of politicians, typically more interested in short-term returns, but we can no longer afford such neglect - our future depends on it."

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Week ending September 17th 2006

A coalition of non-governmental organizations and think tanks has called on rich countries to pay for the effect that their lavish lifestyles have on the people and environment of the developing world in a new report on the implications of climate change for Latin America and the Caribbean. "The poorest of the poor are hit first and hardest by the impacts of climate change, although they had little or no role in causing the crisis," says Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth Europe. "Climate change is mostly a result of the energy-hungry lifestyles in the rich world, including the European Union," he continues. "Consequently, Europe must take more serious steps to cut back its own emissions, but also it must act according to the principle that the polluter must pay and must finance adaptation measures and disaster relief in regions like in Latin America and the Caribbean."

"Climate change impacts are being felt across Latin America, ranging from drought in the Amazon to floods in Haiti, from vanishing glaciers in Colombia to hurricanes, not only in Central America but even in southern Brazil," according to Giulio Volpi of WWF International. "Across the region the capacity of natural ecosystems to act as buffers against extreme weather events is being undermined, leaving people more vulnerable." The coalition concludes that immediate action is needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions, stop illegal logging and government-sanctioned deforestation and prioritize energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. It also calls for assessment of national vulnerabilities, support for community-based coping strategies and disaster risk reduction, increased support for small-scale agriculture and new standards for the private sector.

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Leaked information from the forthcoming Fourth Assessment of the International Panel on Climate Change suggests that the more extreme forecasts of global warming rates may be revised down. The current draft narrows the range of predictions for the year 2100 from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius to 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, reflecting increasing confidence in the forecasts. Holding greenhouse gas emissions at current levels would limit the rise to two degrees by the end of the century, the draft report concludes. The report will finalized in the first quarter of 2007.

Dismissing the Kyoto Protocol as "largely ineffectual," Frances Cairncross, chair of the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council has called for a greater emphasis on adapting to the changing climate. Speaking at the British Association Festival of Science in Norwich, United Kingdom, she said that "adaptation policies have had far less attention than mitigation, and that is a mistake. We need to think now about policies that prepare for a hotter, drier world, especially in poorer countries." Former United States Vice President Al Gore, meanwhile, warned that adaptation to climate change could serve as an excuse for not reducing pollution. "We have to solve it [global warming] and there are some people who urge adaptation instead of prevention, and that formulation must be rejected," he said while visiting Helsinki, Finland. Given the damage already done, it is only morally responsible that poor nations must be helped to cope with existing changes, he continued.

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Approaches to slowing deforestation were discussed at a workshop in Rome, Italy, during the first week in September. Governments presented the results of their actions to slow forest destruction and the lessons they had learned. The workshop also considered the technical requirements for monitoring deforestation rates and consequent emissions. "This meeting clarified the key challenges in this area and identified useful ways to move forward on this important issue," reported Kishan Kumarsingh, chair of the climate treaty's Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, who led the meeting.

There were strong calls for the establishment of a financial mechanism to provide financial incentives for developing countries that voluntarily reduced their emissions from deforestation. Brazil proposed a compensation fund that countries could access if they could prove they had brought deforestation below rates of the 1990s. "Once again Brazil is acting as a protagonist in presenting an innovative proposal," said Environment Minister Marina Silva. Negotiations will continue in Nairobi, Kenya, at the next meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty.

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Week ending September 10th 2006

California's political leaders last week reached a "historic agreement" to control greenhouse gas emissions. The proposed bill was swiftly approved by the Senate and Assembly this week and commits the state to cut carbon dioxide emissions back to 1990 levels, a reduction of around 25 per cent, by the year 2020. Emission limits and reduction measures will go into effect by 2012, with penalties for failure to comply. Market mechanisms will be developed, including carbon credit trading. The bill requires the California Air Resources Board to report on greenhouse gas emissions by the major polluters. In the event of "extraordinary circumstances", such as a natural disaster or economic crisis, the governor can bring implementation to a halt for up to a year.

"We can now move forward with developing a market-based system that makes California a world leader in the effort to reduce carbon emissions," said Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. "We've reached a tipping point in the fight against global warming," commented Frances Beinecke of the Natural Resources Defense Council. "The whole world has been watching to see whether California passes this bill, and now the world will watch as California takes the lead in developing a clean energy market." "It's an old saying, but I think it's still true: where goes California, the rest of the country will follow in another five or 10 years," commented Steve Sawyer from Greenpeace.

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The Global Environment Facility (GEF) will invest in the greening of South Africa's transport system ahead of the 2010 Fédération Internationale de Football World Cup. "Well designed, well run, and sensibly planned public transport can play a key role in cutting climate change emissions. It can also help to improve local air quality and bridge social and economic divides," said Monique Barbut, GEF chief executive officer. Around US$11 million has been provisionally allocated to the project. "We share the South African government's aspirations on this and agree that the World Cup represents a great opportunity to lay out a 21st century, sustainable transport network," she continued.

The move has been endorsed by leading footballers Ronaldo Luiz Nazario de Lima and Zinédine Zidane. "Sub-standard public transport perpetuates poverty, generates health-threatening polluted air and contributes to climate change, which affects everyone, everywhere," they said in a statement. "We both have personal experience of this as we were both brought up in communities where poor quality public transport was all too sadly the norm." The Green Goal initiative at the 2006 World Cup in Germany resulted in a drop in private car use, according to a preliminary evaluation, and "significant achievements in areas such as energy savings, rainwater harvesting and waste minimization at stadia," according to Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme.

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The World Bank is urging the international community to integrate climate concerns in development strategies to safeguard gains in economic development and poverty reduction. A new report, Managing Climate Risk - Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations, estimates the potential impact on investments of climate change at one to two per cent of the portfolio, about US$200 million to $400 million a year within the World Bank Group and at least US$1 billion for all official development assistance and concessional lending. The World Bank is committed to integrating climate risk management at the outset in project design and into country and sector dialogues and development strategies and supports the creation of financing mechanisms for adaptation.

According to World Bank environment director Warren Evans, "adaptation to climate risks needs to be treated as a major economic and social risk to national economies, not just as a long-term environment problem. By enhancing climate risk management, development institutions and their partner countries will be able to better address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events." Monique Barbut, head of the Global Environment Facility, commented that "funding for adaptation to climate change is absolutely critical for developing countries. The best form of adaptation is mitigation, but we must also deal with the climate change that the planet is already signed up to."

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Week ending September 3rd 2006

World Water Week took place in Stockholm, Sweden, August 20-26th. The theme this year was "Beyond the River - Sharing Benefits and Responsibilities". A landmark report released during the event called for a radical new agenda for agricultural water management. Based on assessment of past water-management practices, the study was led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), based in Sri Lanka. "The last 50 years of water management practices are no model for the future when it comes to dealing with water scarcity," said Frank Rijsberman, IWMI head. "We need radical change in the institutions and organizations responsible for managing our earth's water supplies and a vastly different way of thinking about water management."

David Molden at IWMI concludes that "to feed the growing population and reduce malnourishment, the world has three choices: expand irrigation by diverting more water to agriculture and building more dams, at a major cost to the environment; expand the area under rain-fed agriculture at the expense of natural areas through massive deforestation and other habitat destruction; or do more with the water we already use. We must grow more crop per drop, more meat and milk per drop, and more fish per drop." The report does identify areas of innovation that hold hope for the future, particularly low-cost technologies that facilitate access to, and use of, water by the rural poor. As long as health issues are addressed, people can effectively use urban wastewater as a productive resource. Irrigation could be reformed and transformed to reduce water wastage and increase productivity.

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Other news from World Water Week


The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is considering tougher environmental guidelines to regulate shrimp farming operations across Asia. Shrimp farming has been responsible for the destruction of extensive areas of mangrove forest, removing a valuable resource that provides natural coastal protection. According to Ben Brown of the Mangrove Action Project, as much as 90 per cent of Asia's mangrove has been destroyed by shrimp farming, which is rarely sustainable. "In Asia, the average intensive shrimp farm survives only two to five years before serious pollution and disease problems cause early closures" he said. The industry has a "get-in-quick, do-it-dirty approach, and it causes a lot of havoc."

The guidelines have been developed by a consortium that includes the Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific (NACA), whose 17 member-governments have already agreed to the regulations. FAO adoption will mean the guidelines will become part of national government policy. Regulation is considered necessary because the environmental costs of shrimp farming are borne by the broad community. "There is no incentive to take account of mangrove costs, because they are not felt as losses to the private producers, but to the wider economy," argues Lucy Emerton at the World Conservation Union.

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The latest report on the state of the global ozone layer in the stratosphere warns that recovery may be delayed by five to 15 years beyond earlier forecasts, but the atmosphere is responding to the effect of the Montreal Protocol in curbing the release of ozone-depleting chemicals. The report was prepared by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme. "While these latest projections of ozone recovery are disappointing, the good news is that the level of ozone-depleting substances continues to decline from its 1992-94 peak in the troposphere and 1990s peak in the stratosphere," commented Michel Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General.

The latest predictions indicate that the ozone over the Antarctic should recover by the year 2065. Over middle latitudes, recovery should occur by 2049. The fact that the decline in stratospheric ozone levels away from the polar regions observed during the 1990s has not continued is seen as a response to stable levels of ozone-depleting gases during the recent period. "The early signs that the atmosphere is healing demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol is working. But the delayed recovery is a warning that we cannot take the ozone layer for granted and must maintain and accelerate our efforts to phase out harmful chemicals", said Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director.

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Week ending August 27th 2006

World Water Week

August 20-26th is World Water Week. The theme this year is "Beyond the River - Sharing Benefits and Responsibilities".

The conservation organization WWF has issued a report warning that a combination of climate change and poor resource management is leading to water shortages even in the most developed countries. "At the rhetoric level, it is now generally accepted in the developed world that water must be used more efficiently and that water must be made available again to the environment in sufficient quantity for natural systems to function," the report states. Nevertheless, "putting the rhetoric into practice in the face of habitual practices and intense lobbying by vested interests has been very difficult."

In China, parts of the southwest are experiencing the worst drought in 50 years, according to the state meteorological bureau. In Chongqing, 7.5 million people lack adequate drinking water and financial losses have been estimated at US$313 million. Monsoonal rains in India over recent weeks have generated flooding across five states, with over 300 people killed and 4.5 million reported homeless. Lives have also been lost in Pakistan. In Ethiopia, 10,000 people were stranded after a river overflowed in the south, killing 125 people. In total, there have been 600 fatalities in this country over the past two weeks as a result of heavy rainfall and flooding.

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Injecting carbon under the sea floor could reduce the risk of leaks, according to a recent study. At 3,000m below the sea surface, high pressure and low temperature mean that carbon gas turns into a liquid that is denser than the surrounding water. Experiments indicate that ice-like compounds would form in which water molecules 'cage' carbon, trapping the gas within the sediment. Because of its density, any liquid that does escape would not rise to the surface. The researchers, from Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Columbia University in the United States, write in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that "deep-sea sediments at high pressure and low temperature provide a virtually unlimited and permanent reservoir for carbon dioxide captured from fossil fuel combustion." Daniel Schrag at Harvard's Center for the Environment, reckons that the process could make "coal a green fuel."

Some environmentalists remain sceptical. "We have real questions about this technology. It is not something that currently works or is tested," said Chris Miller at Greenpeace. "We have a relatively short amount of time to begin making pretty dramatic reductions in global warming pollutants." There are also concerns about geological stability. "The downsides are that nobody has ever injected into those kinds of formations at those kinds of depths," said Ken Caldeira, Stanford University. "There are engineering hurdles to overcome and it might not be that cheap,"

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Background


Concern that international carbon trading under the Kyoto Protocol might be delayed has been allayed with the award by the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat of a key software contract to Trasys SA, based in Belgium. The contract will provide the electronic infrastructure for the International Transaction Log (ITL), which will link national carbon trading registries. "Awarding this contract is a significant milestone in finalizing the systems to make carbon trading under the Kyoto Protocol a reality", reported Richard Kinley, acting head of the Secretariat. "We remain on track for Kyoto countries' systems to link to the ITL and become fully operational by April 2007."

The seven states in the northeastern United States that agreed, last year, to establish an emissions trading scheme, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, have now agreed reduction targets. The scheme will cap carbon emissions from power plants at close to current levels from 2009 to 2015, then reduce them to ten per cent by the year 2019. "It's a good first step, but the road is pretty long, and we are going to need substantive greenhouse gas reductions," said Peter Fusaro from Energy & Environment Capital Management. Though the limits are "mild, pretty negligible," he reckons that the agreement could help force the federal government into action.

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Week ending August 20th 2006

The Clinton Climate Initiative, which was launched early August, has formed a partnership with the Large Cities Climate Leadership Group, chaired by the Mayor of London, to reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency in twenty-two of the world's largest cities. "It no longer makes sense for us to debate whether or not the Earth is warming at an alarming rate, and it doesn't make sense for us to sit back and wait for others to act," said former United States President Bill Clinton. "The fate of the planet that our children and grandchildren will inherit is in our hands." He stressed that the partnership will take "measurable steps" towards slowing down global warming.

The partnership will take a business-oriented approach. According to London Mayor Ken Livingston, "there is no bigger task for humanity than to avert catastrophic climate change. The world's largest cities can have a major impact on this. Already they are at the center of developing the technologies and innovative new practices that provide hope that we can radically reduce carbon emissions." One of the first steps the partnership will take is to form a purchasing consortium that pool the cities' buying power to lower the price of energy saving products and stimulate technological development.

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The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is encouraging indigenous peoples, particularly from Africa, to participate actively in the next Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty in Nairobi, Kenya, in November 2006. Marking the International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples, August 9th, Richard Kinley, acting head of the Secretariat, congratulated indigenous peoples on their "continued progress with strengthening international cooperation on issues of concern."

The leaders of the world's indigenous peoples have called on the United Nations General Assembly to recognize native people's right to self-determination and protect them against discrimination and oppression by approving the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, chairperson of the Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, reports that "systematic racism and discrimination is still the lot of many indigenous people not only in the developing countries, but also in the richest and most powerful countries." United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan acknowledges that "much remains to be done to protect [indigenous peoples] from massive human rights violations, to alleviate the poverty they face and to safeguard against many discriminations that, for example, forces many indigenous girls to drop out of school."

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An Inuit community in Canada is installing air conditioners after July temperatures topped 30°C. Ten air conditioners are being installed for office workers in the village of Kuujjuaq in Quebec, Canada. "These are the times when the far north has to have air conditioners now to function," said Sheila Watt-Cloutier, International Chair for the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. "Our Arctic homes are made to be airtight for the cold and do not 'breathe' well in the heat with this warming trend."

Writing in Ambio, Terry Chapin, of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and his co-authors argue that Arctic nations have the wealth and scientific understanding to alter the course of global climate change: Arctic nations "account for about 40 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions and, therefore, have a substantial capacity to reduce the rates of Arctic change." They argue that there is already enough information to devise suitable strategies. "We do not need to delay action until some future time when we will ‘know enough’ to act," says Chapin. The authors advance a set of policy recommendations, including approaches to emissions reductions and the zoning of increasingly ice-free areas. "A lot of the recommendations for policy change deal with enhancing the capacity of northern regions to be flexible and adaptable to cope with changes, some of which we can predict, and others of which will be surprises," reports Chapin.

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Week ending August 13th 2006

A new report warns that rapid global warming poses a variety of threats to the security of the Asia-Pacific region. "There is no longer much doubt that the world is facing a prolonged period of planetary warming," conclude authors Alan Dupont from the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Graeme Pearman, a fellow at Monash University. "Compressed within the space of a single century, global warming will present far more daunting challenges of human and biological adaptation" than previous, slower environmental shifts.

The report, from the Lowy Institute, based in Sydney, Australia, identifies sea-level rise as a major threat to the low-lying islands of the Pacific, heavily urbanized areas, such as the Yellow and Yangzi deltas in China, the east coast of Bangladesh, the deltas of Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar and parts of the Philippines and Indonesia. Weather extremes and climate fluctuations could "refashion" the region's productive landscapes and affect the incidence of disease. The authors call for a "fundamental transformation" in our approach to energy use, avoiding fossil fuels.

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British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Californian Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have announced an agreement to work together to fight global warming that could lay the foundations for a trans-Atlantic emissions trading system. They will collaborate on research into cleaner fuels and technologies. "The environmental and economic consequences of climate change and our dependency on fossil fuels compel both California and the United Kingdom to commit to urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote low carbon technologies," according to a joint statement.

"We see that there is not great leadership from the federal government when it comes to protecting the environment," Schwarzenegger said. "We know that there is global warming, so we should stop it." Both parties were, however, eager to dismiss the idea that the agreement undercuts the Bush administration's position on the climate issue. Kristen Hellmer, speaking for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, described the agreement as a "wonderful amplification" of last year's talks between President Bush and the British Prime Minister.

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Participants at a recent European Science Foundation meeting have called for a long-term research programme to develop the "artificial leaf", harnessing the way in which biological systems convert solar energy in order to produce fuels on a commercial scale. The programme will tackle means of extending current photovoltaic technology to generate clean fuels directly from solar radiation, the construction of artificial devices mimicking photosynthesis and tuning natural systems to produce fuels such as hydrogen and methanol directly rather than carbohydrates that require further processing to generate fuels.

In the United Kingdom, electronics chain Currys is to sell solar photovoltaic panels in selected high street shops. Announcing the development, Currys said that rising electricity prices and a better understanding of environmental issues meant customers were now more open to purchasing these items. They intend to cut the cost to almost half that charged by specialist suppliers. Mike Childs from Friends of the Earth welcomed the move, but noted that insulation and double-glazing would be a cheaper starting point for many households.

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Week ending August 6th 2006

The Amazonian forest cannot withstand more than two consecutive years of drought, according to research conducted by the Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, United States. The project was led by Dan Nepstad, who is based in Belém, Brazil. "We started thinking about simulated drought experiments back in 1994, when the Amazon was coming out of a major drought caused by a severe El Niño, and the forest almost completely ran out of water," he explains. There is now increasing concern that global warming could lead to longer and/or more severe droughts in the Amazonian Basin.

The research involved covering an area of forest the size of a football pitch with plastic to simulate prolonged drought. Nepstad reports that the trees survived two years of drought, by sinking their roots deeper to locate remaining moisture. "That’s one of the most fascinating things about the Amazon," he says. "The east and southeastern parts of the forest actually go months each year with little or no rain. The trees survive by tapping soil moisture as far down as 20 metres." But, in year three of the experiment, the trees began to die, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere and accelerating global warming.

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Participants at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) conference, Living with Climate Variability and Change, held in Espoo, Finland during July 2006, have called for "efforts to assemble disparate knowledge, to identify good practice, and to assess the value of and give visibility to climate-related risk management." They are concerned that there is a "lack of awareness of climate-related risk management opportunities among numerous communities that would benefit."

Opening the meeting, Michel Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General, drew attention to the particular needs of the developing nations, where the "concept of climate risk might not even be considered." "In the developing and the Least-Developed Countries," he continued, "there is often no established or an insufficient mechanism for data collection and reporting and, accordingly, insufficient reliable data on which to base a rational attempt at risk assessment." The conference was cosponsored by the Finnish Meteorological Institute and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

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The British government may cap each citizen's carbon emissions and permit individuals to trade carbon credits gained by reducing their emissions below the personal limit. "Imagine a country where carbon becomes a new currency," said Environment Secretary David Miliband introducing a study of the proposal. "We carry bank cards that store both pounds and carbon points. When we buy electricity, gas and fuel, we use our carbon points, as well as pounds."

The scheme would cover energy use through electricity, gas, petrol and air travel. "People on low incomes are likely to benefit as they will be able to sell their excess allowances," Miliband said. "People on higher incomes tend to have higher carbon emissions due to higher car ownership and usage, air travel and tourism, and larger homes." The personal allowance is one of a number of schemes the government is considering to involve the public in carbon reduction.

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Week ending July 30th 2006

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that action is needed to conserve Pacific mangroves. As a result of climate change and other stresses, some Pacific islands could see half their mangroves lost by the end of the century. The link between the mangrove wetlands and other coastal ecosystems and their contribution to near-shore fisheries production make it "critical for Pacific Island governments and local communities to act now to ensure the sustainable provision of mangrove ecosystem services," says Kitty Simonds of the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council.

According to Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director, "there are many compelling reasons for fighting climate change. The threats to mangroves in the Pacific, and by inference across other low-lying parts of the tropics, underline yet another reason to act" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But," he continued, "there is also an urgent need to help vulnerable communities adapt to the sea level rise which is already underway." Vainuupo Jungblut at the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme reckons that "the challenge for the region is to implement appropriate and affordable adaptation measures with limited resources."

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Leading scientists and policy experts have signed a declaration calling for a new international coordinating mechanism to advise governments on protecting biodiversity. They argue that the gap between biodiversity science and public policy must be closed as a matter of urgency and that the global scientific community should be more strongly organized and integrated. Bob Watson, chief scientist at the World Bank, reckons that biodiversity needs the equivalent of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "It is a wonderful example of academics working with politicians," he said. The Convention on Biological Diversity does not have the "structural means to mobilize the expertise of a large scientific community that spans a wide range of disciplines," according to the declaration.

Last year, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment warned that the present rate of species loss may be one thousand times faster than at any time in history. "It is the bits of biodiversity acting together that creates the ecological goods and services that we depend on for life," according to Georgina Mace at the Institute of Zoology in London, United Kingdom. "For the sake of the planet," Watson concludes, "the biodiversity science community has to create a way to get organized, to coordinate its work across disciplines, and together with one clear voice advise governments on steps to halt the potentially catastrophic loss of species already occurring." The Consultative Process Towards an International Mechanism of Scientific Expertise on Biodiversity (IMOSEB) has been established to produce recommendations for such a process.

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Background


The annual Group of Eight (G8) Summit took place in St Petersburg, Russia, July 15-17th 2006. The G8 leaders approved a statement that recognized a split within the group on nuclear energy and climate change as "G8 members pursue different ways to achieve energy security and the goals of climate protection." The statement said that those who favour the nuclear response, six of the eight members, see it as a key to energy security and slowing global warming.

Environmental groups were not happy with the endorsement, albeit qualified, of the nuclear option. "Spreading nuclear reactors around the planet will pave the way for new terrorist threats and new potential nuclear armed states," warned the GRACE Policy Institute. Alice Slater of the GRACE Policy Institute said that it was time to focus on the green renewable sources of energy. "People don't get told the story that these things are possible, that the sun, water and wind can work," she said. Graham Saul at Oil Change International took issue with the G8 prediction of a massive increase in demand for fossil fuels: "The G8 can't fight climate change and subsidize an expansion of fossil fuels at the same time. This is a complete contradiction and a dramatic failure of leadership on the part of the G8."

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Week ending July 23rd 2006

The World Heritage Committee (WHC) has adopted a strategy in response to the threat that climate change brings to sites such as Mount Everest and the Great Barrier Reef. Sites at risk will be added to the List of World Heritage in Danger on a case by case basis. There will be a study of alternatives to the Danger List for these sites. Environmentalists were frustrated by what they saw as a conservative stance. They had lobbied for a strong statement on the need to reduce emissions and immediate listing of threatened sites such as Mount Everest.

"We are extremely angry that the World Heritage Committee has not taken any meaningful action to protect some of the most important sites on Earth from climate change," said Peter Roderick of the Climate Justice Programme. "They are good at drawing up wonderfully drafted documents, but the idea of actually doing anything seems to pose a problem." WHC chairperson Ina Marciulionyte explained that "this is the start of a long process, which is important in that it helps draw attention to a far reaching issue. It is our duty to do whatever we can to protect World Heritage in keeping with our responsibility to implement the World Heritage Convention. This is what we are trying to do by initiating more studies and sharing experience."

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The Pacific island of Vanuatu is the happiest nation on earth, according to the Happy Planet Index. The index, developed by the new economics foundation (nef), is based on consumption levels, life expectancy and happiness, rather than measurements of national economic wealth. "It is clear that no single nation listed in the index has got everything right," said Nic Marks from nef, "but it does reveal patterns that show how we might better achieve long and happy lives for all while living within our environmental means."

nef is calling for the adoption of a global manifesto for a happier planet. Recommendations include eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, recognizing the contribution of individuals and unpaid work and ensuring economic policies stay within environmental limits. According to Simon Bullock of Friends of the Earth, "the current crude focus on Gross Domestic Product is outdated, destructive and doesn't deliver a better quality of life."

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In the run-up to the Group of Eight (G8) Summit in St Petersburg, Russia, British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced that he would like to see the G8 expanded to 13 nations, taking in China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. He considers that this is essential if global agreement is to be reached on climate change, trade and other issues. There is no way we can deal with climate change unless we get an agreement that binds in the United States, China and India," he said. The British government recently published plans to bring the developing nations into a more forward role in the climate negotiations.

Jacques Chirac, the French President, called on the G8 members to "set an example by respecting their commitments" under the Kyoto Protocol. "If we continue on our current course, increased consumption of fossil fuels will be disastrous for the environment and climate," he warned. The WorldWide Fund for Nature urged the G8 to adopt a "Marshall Plan" to treat climate change and energy security in one concerted effort. G8 legislators also underlined the need for a joint response. "If we do not successfully address both, we risk undermining our development, economic and security goals," they said in a statement released at a meeting organized by Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment (GLOBE) International. Responding to fears that climate would drop down the agenda in St Petersburg, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that G8 members would use the Summit to "to renew the commitments we made together last year on climate change."

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Week ending July 16th 2006

The European Parliament is supporting proposals for an emissions trading scheme for air travel. Despite the air industry's substantial contribution to global warming, the Kyoto Protocol exempted the sector from emissions reductions targets in the expectation, that has not been realised, that a voluntary scheme would be established. The European initiative will, it is hoped, curb the growth in emissions from the region's aircraft, which stood at 85 per cent between 1994 and 2004. During its initial phase, the air travel scheme will run alongside the existing European emission trading scheme.

The industry response to the proposed scheme has been mixed. British Airways supports an emissions trading scheme, preferring this approach to, for example, a tax on fuel. Sylviane Lust, director general of the International Airline Carrier Association, claims, however, that "the recommendation to set up a separate... scheme for aviation is totally unrealistic." Jos Dings of the European Federation for Transport and Environment welcomed the development. "It is high time Europe got its head out of the clouds, got the aviation sector in line with other polluters and started demanding emissions cuts," he said.

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Background


The increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air is making the oceans more acidic. According to a new report from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder in the United States, the trend is "dramatically altering ocean chemistry and threatening corals and other marine organisms that secrete skeletal structures." Ken Caldeira from Stanford University reported that the ocean is more acid than it has been for "many millions of years." "What we're doing in the next decade will affect our oceans for millions of years," he said. "Carbon dioxide levels are going up extremely rapidly, and it's overwhelming our marine systems."

Christopher Langdon, from the University of Miami, has shown that corals grew half as fast in aquaria when exposed to carbon dioxide levels that might prevail by the middle of the present century. He fears that corals might not be able to survive by the end of the century. "These organisms probably don't have the adaptive ability to respond to this new onslaught," he warns. John Guinotte at the Marine Conservation Biology Institute in Redmond is concerned that plankton and marine snails may suffer. "These are groups everyone depends on, and if their numbers go down, there are going to be reverberations throughout the food chain," he said. "When I see marine snails' shells dissolving while they're alive, that's spooky."

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A recent study suggests that salps, transparent jellyfish-like creatures, may be carrying substantial amounts of carbon down into the ocean, limiting the rise in atmospheric concentrations. "Salps swim, feed, and produce waste continuously," according to Laurence Madin of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the United States. "They take in small packages of carbon and make them into big packages that sink fast."

In field studies in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, the researchers found that one species, Salpa aspera, multiplied into dense swarms that lasted for months. One swarm covered 100,000 square kilometres, consuming up to 74 per cent of microscopic carbon-containing plants from the surface water each day. Sinking waste then took up to 4,000 tons of carbon a day down to deep water.

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Week ending July 9th 2006

Poverty in Africa can be made history if the continent's resources are harnessed effectively, fairly and sustainably, according to Africa Environment Outlook-2, a report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It is argued that the region is only realizing a fraction of its nature-based economic potential, from freshwater to forests and from minerals to the marine environment. Speaking for UNEP, Executive Director Adam Steiner, said that "the report challenges the myth that Africa is poor. Indeed, it points out that its vast natural wealth can, if sensitively, sustainably and creatively managed, be the basis for an African renaissance - a renaissance that meets and goes beyond the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. But this is not inevitable and, as [the report] points out, African nations face stark choices."

The report presents a series of scenarios for the future, illustrating the choices that have to be made. If food production is purely driven by market forces, land degradation rates could rise to up to 30,000 hectares a year. The rapid intensification of farming will lead to a drastic decline in forest cover. Under a more optimistic projection, "The Great Transition", the level of land degradation declines and forest cover increases. The area under agriculture increases by 10 per cent, mostly due to government-held land being put into production. The report's conclusions were echoed by the Madagascar Declaration, which resulted from a conference, Defying Nature’s End: The African Context, held in Antananarivo, Madagascar. The Declaration calls for establishing and expanding markets for natural resources, such as ecotourism and carbon trading.

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The Japanese government has announced that all vehicles must run on a mix of ethanol and regular gasoline by the year 2030. All new cars must be able to run on a blend of ten per cent ethanol and 90 per cent gasoline by 2010. According to Takeshi Sekiya, from the Environment Ministry, "the main goal is to counter global warming. Adopting the new technology is not that difficult." Japan also imports nearly all its oil and would like to implement alternative energy sources. The ministry will increase production of ethanol fuel on the island of Miyako, where there is an abundant supply of sugar cane. In another initiative, Japan plans to bury 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2020.

The Bush Administration in the United States has announced a US$170 million support programme for public and private partnerships to make solar energy, in the form of photovoltaic cell technology, more competitive with conventional electricity production. "We will be asking the winning partnerships to focus their work on new manufacturing techniques as well as new component designs that will allow us to bring down the cost of producing photovoltaic fuel cells as quickly as possible," said Energy Secretary Sam Bodman. The aim of the broader Solar America Initiative, of which the new programme is a part, is to cut photovoltaic costs from 13-22 cents a kilowatt to 9-18 cents a kilowatt by 2010.

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British Prime Minister Tony Blair has set a one-year deadline for a new global agreement on climate change. "We need to begin to agree a framework that the major players - United States, China, India and Europe - buy into and has at its heart a goal to stabilise temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations. And we need to accelerate discussions - we can't take the five years it took Kyoto took to negotiate," he said. The United Kingdom has recently appointed a climate 'ambassador', John Ashton. The United States does not rule out joining a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, according to chief climate negotiator, Harlan Watson. It would, though, require "substantial changes in the current rules of the game," he commented.

Canada will join the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate, says Prime Minister Stephen Harper. It was Canada's "desire to participate in the AP-6 process, along with a number of other processes," he said when meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Japan sees the Asia-Pacific Partnership as complementing, not replacing, the Kyoto process. "We are trying to promote the Kyoto Protocol," a senior Japanese official said. "We do hope that Canada also will remain committed."

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Week ending July 2nd 2006

The European Union and the United States have agreed to "act with resolve and urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," at an annual summit held in Vienna, Austria. Though the contentious issue of the Kyoto Protocol was side-stepped, a new EU-US High Level Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development will hold its first meeting this autumn in Finland. Through strategic cooperation, the agreement aims to "accelerate investment in cleaner, more efficient use of fossil sources and renewable sources in order to cut air pollution harmful to human health and natural resources, and reducing greenhouse gases associated with the serious long-term challenge of global climate change." EU President Manuel Barroso reported that the Dialogue will "address ways to get cost-effective emission cuts, development and employment of new technologies, efficiency and conservation, renewable fuels and other environmental issues such as biodiversity."

The High Level Dialogue will advance the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action for Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development. Topics to be covered include experience with different market-based mechanisms, advancing the development and deployment of existing and transformational technologies, producing energy with lower emissions, efficiency and conservation, renewable fuels, clean diesel, capture of methane, lower emitting agricultural operations and energy production and distribution systems. US President George Bush commented that he "kind of startled my country when, in my State of the Union, I said we're hooked on oil and we need to get off oil. That seemed counterintuitive for some people to hear a Texan say. But the truth of the matter is, we got to diversify away from oil. And the best way to do it is through new technologies."

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A United Nations conference, held in Tunis, Algeria, during June 2006, has concluded that better management and a wider spreading of scientific knowledge are essential in the fight against desertification. The Tunis Declaration, resulting from the conference The Future of the Drylands, which was attended by 300 scientists, calls on governments to "place combatting desertification and development of drylands as a major priority and to create an enabling environment." Furthermore, governments and multilateral environmental agreements should "use sound scientific knowledge to formulate and implement policies, laws, regulations and action programmes vis-a-vis environmental issues stressing integrated management of natural resources and conservation practices."

The Tunis Declaration underlines the role of scientists in disseminating research results and making them available "to decision-makers and local dryland communities so that research can help shape sound policies and good governance as well as education on an interactive basis for sustainable dryland management and improved livelihoods." It identifies the preservation of cultural and biological diversity, management of water resources and the identification of sustainable livelihoods for dryland inhabitants as critical issues. "Drylands do have a future," said Walter Erdelen of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, as the meeting ended. They should not "be neglected as remote or peripheral areas or considered as marginal with respect to their economic productivity," he warned.

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A new project will bring high quality public transport to three of the most polluted cities in the world. The project was announced at the World Urban Forum III in Vancouver, Canada. Concepción, Chile, Guatemala City and Panama City in Central America will see new modern bus networks, cycle ways and pedestrianization schemes in a bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100,000 tonnes a year. A new information network, NESTLAC, will link these cities to others in the region, promoting cooperation.

Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), commented that "the urban environment is inextricably intertwined with the rural one and inextricably linked with the way local, regional and global natural resources are soundly and sustainably managed. So it is vital that we get cities right if we are to meet the internationally agreed development goals, if we are to deal with such pressing global issues as climate change." The project is being funded by the Global Environmental Facility and will be managed through the UNEP's Risø Centre.

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Week ending June 25th 2006

The science academies of 12 nations have urged political leaders not to neglect climate change during energy security talks at the G8 Summit in July 2006. They cite climate change, sharply rising and fluctuating oil and gas prices, providing fuels to the developing world, inefficient and wasteful use of energy, and a geographical mismatch between energy sources and users as "very serious difficulties related to sustainability and security of energy." "If energy sustainability and security fail, the primary human development goals cannot be achieved," they conclude.

The academies warn that climate change considerations could get lost as nations concentrate on securing energy supplies. "One year on from the UK Gleneagles Summit, where the G8 committed to taking action on climate change, this crucial issue must not be allowed to fall by the wayside," said Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society. "The G8 must demonstrate that this was a serious pledge by integrating climate concerns with their discussions regarding security of supply."

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William Bradshaw and Christina Holzapfel at the University of Oregon in Eugene in the United States report that some species of animals are adopting new patterns of behaviour to cope with global warming as rapid climate changes over the past several decades lead to heritable, genetic changes. "Over the past 40 years, animal species have been extending their range toward the poles and populations have been migrating, developing or reproducing earlier," according to Bradshaw. Red squirrels in Canada are reproducing earlier in the year and German blackcap birds are arriving earlier at nesting sites.

Bradshaw attributes the adaptation to phenotypic plasticity, the ability of animals to modify their behaviour, morphology or physiology as their environment changes. "Small animals with short life cycles and large population sizes will probably adapt to longer growing seasons and be able to persist," said Bradshaw. "However, populations of many large animals with longer life cycles and smaller population sizes will experience a decline in population size or be replaced by more southern species." Though behavioural adaptation to changes in season onset and duration are occurring, the researchers found no evidence of genetic changes, such as increased heat tolerance, directly related to higher seasonal temperatures rather than season length.

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More than 200 green energy projects have been approved under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) since late 2004, and 600 more are in the pipeline, according to the Climate Change Secretariat. By 2012, the CDM could generate one billion tonnes of emissions reductions. This "corresponds to the present (annual) emissions of Spain and the United Kingdom combined," says the Secretariat.

There is concern, though, about the lop-sided development of the programme. "Whilst the mechanism is seeing exponential growth, the growth is still too unevenly distributed," according to Richard Kinley, Secretariat head. There have been few projects in Africa, for example. To date, The Netherlands, Britain and Japan have been the leading investors in the CDM.

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Week ending June 18th 2006

World Desertification Day

June 17th is World Desertification Day. This year's theme is "The Beauty of Deserts – The Challenge of Desertification".

The world's deserts are facing dramatic changes as a result of climate change, water demands, tourism and salt contamination, according the World Deserts Outlook, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on World Environment Day, 5th June. "Across the planet, poverty, unsustainable land management and climate change are turning drylands into deserts, and desertification in turn exacerbates and leads to poverty," said United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan. "There is also mounting evidence that dryland degradation and competition over increasingly scarce resources can bring communities into conflict," he continued. The report argues that global and regional instability is altering desert landscapes as more military training grounds, prisons and refugee holding stations are built.

UNEP launched a guide on tourism and deserts on the same day. "The guide seeks to promote desert tourism as a leading source of sustainable development in the countries concerned," said UNEP's Monique Barbut. "With careful planning, tour operators can help mitigate the seasonal nature of desert tourism by generating positive social, economic, and environmental impacts that will offer year-round benefits for the communities living in desert destinations." The guide notes that desert tourism is growing quickly but that the tolerance threshold for visitor numbers in the fragile desert ecosystems is not high.

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An American team of researchers has developed a new process for studying complex drylands and desert landscapes. The team was led by Debra Peters, a research scientist at the United States Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service, at the Jornada Experimental Range in southern New Mexico, where the research was conducted. "Previously we looked at small areas and used that information to make guesses about the large area, to extrapolate to the big area, and that doesn't work very well when things are really complex and so then we shifted to say, really, the complexity is what's interesting and important," reported Peters.

The research has been based on a six-step approach in order to give full weight to the myriad, complex influences on the system: "look up" to assess the broad scale; "look back" in time to determine the role of past events on the present landscape; "look around" to consider adjacent spaces and the influence of wind, water and animals as connecting transport vectors; "look down" to determine fine-scale properties and processes of the landscape; then integrate the information from broad scale to fine scale to determine the most important influences; and, finally, "look forward" in time to the effects of variable environmental factors from the current landscape to the future.

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Construction has begun on what it is claimed will be the world's largest solar power plant. The power plant is located near Serpa, 200km south of Lisbon, in Portugal's Alentejo region. Generating eleven megawatts of electricity, it will consist of 52,000 photovoltaic modules on a 60-hectare hillside. The plant will use PowerLight's PowerTracker technology so that the photovoltaic modules follow the sun.

According to Piero Dal Maso, of the renewable energy company Catavento, the plant "should provide energy enough for 8,000 homes. It will save 30,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, so that is probably around one per cent of domestic consumption of Portugal." An even larger solar power station has been proposed for the same region. Visible from space, that installation could generate 116 megawatts of electricity.

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Week ending June 11th 2006

A report on the 3 Country Energy Efficiency (3CEE) Project concludes that China, India and Brazil will more than double their energy use and greenhouse gas emissions within a generation if energy efficiency efforts are not successful. In contrast, "improving energy efficiency for existing buildings and other infrastructure could cut current energy consumption by 25 per cent or more in India, China and Brazil, amounting to millions of tons in reduced greenhouse gas emissions and hundreds of millions of dollars in energy savings," according to Robert Taylor, World Bank energy specialist and project leader. The project is a joint initiative of the World Bank, the United Nations Environment Programme and partners in Brazil, China and India.

Since 2001, the 3CEE Project has worked to promote energy efficiency projects in the target nations by easing typical investment requirements of financial institutions. "Many energy efficiency projects quickly pay for themselves, with typical returns on investment of 20-40 per cent," says Chandra Govindarajalu, World Bank environment specialist. "Despite the demonstrated benefits, though, companies often cite other, more immediate investment and borrowing priorities", he continued. "Meanwhile, commercial banks in these countries are generally unfamiliar with financing projects designed to achieve cost savings, rather than develop new product lines or other tangible assets." The way forward is to foster corporate awareness, support catalyst energy efficiency practitioners and enlighten commercial banks to ease access to local financing for such projects.

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The European Commission has launched a campaign to encourage Europeans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Amongst other things, the campaign, You Control Climate Change, promotes 50 practical tips aimed at halting climate change, ranging from turning off lights to not using cars. School children are being asked to sign a pledge to reduce their emissions and then monitor their progress.

Noting that action against climate change is a priority for the European Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso said that the "campaign complements and reinforces our political and legislative efforts. It makes clear to which extent we all are responsible for climate change and what individuals can and need to do to limit this threat." Every European citizen is responsible for eleven tons of greenhouse gas emissions a year.

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China has announced that it has reduced the rate of desertification. The rate has dropped from about 10,400 square km a year towards the end of the 20th century to 3,000 square km a year at present. The Chinese government admits, however, that the problem remains serious. "Disadvantageous climatic reasons, especially the influence of drought on speeding up desertification, cannot be underestimated," said Zhu Lieke of the State Forestry Administration. "Over-planting, over-grazing and over-use of water are also issues yet to be totally resolved."

It has been estimated that desertification affects around 27 per cent of China's territory and causes economic losses of US$6.75 billion a year, afflicting around 400 million people. The Chinese government is investing US$250 million a year in combating the problem. It is planned that, by 2020, anti-desertification schemes will recover half of all land destroyed by desertification. A 5,700km green wall is being built from Beijing through to Inner Mongolia to protect lands degraded by human activity. Domestic animals are being banned from fragile soils and efforts are being made to improve irrigation. Tree fences and grass belts are being used to keep blown sand off oases and farmlands.

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Week ending June 4th 2006

The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol met in Bonn, Germany from 17-25th May. This body focuses on further measures to be taken by industrialized countries for the period after 2012 when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends. Delegates agreed to a roadmap to set new targets beyond 2012, but with no timetable for decisions on the level of the reductions. "This [agreement] makes clear... that the outcome of this process will be a new set of quantitative caps," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, who is leading the process. "This is a new phase in the life of the Protocol."

The post-2012 view will have an economic and scientific underpinning, based on the forthcoming Stern Review on the economics of climate change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 review of climate science. Richard Kinley, acting head of the climate treaty secretariat said: "Developing countries, which will be hit hardest by climate change, are pushing for rapid agreement on deeper emission cuts. This is the message we have also been hearing from business leaders meeting here in Bonn, who have underlined the importance of a speedy process from their perspective. Obviously, the carbon market needs clear signals."

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Fiji has been selected as the pilot country for a series of projects that will help the tourist sector respond to the threat of climate change. "Addressing the impact of climate change on Small Island Developing States has become a priority, given the heavy dependence of their economies on tourism, their high level of vulnerability and their relatively low adaptive capacity," said Programme Officer Gabor Vereczi in the Sustainable Development of Tourism Department of the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). "Basic adaptation measures, such as early warning systems and preparedness for cyclones, or the better use of climate information provided by national meteorological services can make a huge difference in preventing and mitigating climate-related risks and hazards," he continued.

Napolioni Masirewa of the Fijian Ministry of Tourism said the work should "provide much needed support to develop a risk management and response strategy for tourism to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. We hope it will reduce the vulnerability of the tourism sector, and in doing so enhance the sustainability of the natural resources and the quality of life of the people of Fiji." The projects will be coordinated by the UNWTO with the United Nations Environment Programme and the United Nations Development Programme. They are financed by the Global Environment Facility. A conference on Building Tourism Resilience in Small Island Developing States will be held in Nassau in the Bahamas 7-9th June 2006.

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An Australian government report has concluded that global warming could be occurring faster than previously thought and could exceed previous predictions. "The impacts of a changing climate are beginning to emerge," according to the report, Stronger Evidence But New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005. "High temperature extremes, such as the August 2003 heatwave in central Europe that had severe impacts on human health, are becoming more common," it observes. The report was launched by Environment Minister Ian Campbell. He also announced that Australia was on target to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets of 108 per cent of 1990 emissions by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol, which Australia has not ratified.

A team of European scientists warns that climate models may have underestimated the extent of global warming as an important feedback may have not been given due weight. As the planet warms, additional carbon is released from decomposing soils and from the oceans. Estimating the effect from ice core evidence, the team concludes that it could boost the rise in global temperature by between 15 and 78 per cent. According to Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands, "although there are still significant uncertainties, our simple data-based approach is consistent with the latest climate-carbon cycle models, which suggest that global warming will be accelerated by the effects of climate change on the rate of carbon dioxide increase."

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Week ending May 28th 2006

In a new report, British charity Christian Aid claims that a "staggering 182 million people in sub-Saharan Africa alone could die of disease directly attributable to climate change by the end of the century." According to John Houghton, former co-chair of the science working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "this report exposes clearly and starkly the devastating impact that human-induced climate change will have on many of the world's poorest people."

The Christian Aid report concludes that "climate change is taking place and will inevitably continue." "Poor people will take the brunt, so we are calling on rich countries to help them adjust as the seas rise, the deserts expand, and floods and hurricanes become more frequent and intense." Warren Evans, environment head at the World Bank, said last week that "as a development institution we have to focus on the fact that millions of people will suffer from climate change. The last G8 pushed African development but didn't focus on the impact of climate change on Africa," he continued. "We need to catch up on our understanding of that."

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The latest round of negotiations on implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) began on May 15th in Bonn, Germany. The meeting launched with a two-day Dialogue on the way forward post-Kyoto, following the commitment made at the last Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty. "I don't think anyone expects any breakthroughs in Bonn but it will be the start of what could prove to be some very useful discussions," said Elliot Diringer of the Pew Centre on Climate Change. Talks then continued on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

Speaking at the talks, Richard Kinley, acting head of the UNFCCC Secretariat, warned that transport is "the big problem" in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. "The growth... is really quite worrisome," he said. "Clearly much more concerted action is necessary." While he felt that progress was being made in some areas, such as the energy sector, he was disappointed that a number of reports on progress in implementing the Kyoto Protocol were overdue. He reported that the Bonn meeting was placing "much emphasis... on the promotion of economic incentives to promote action to reduce emissions - for both industrialized and developing countries."

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A movie documentary about global warming, An Inconvenient Truth, featuring former United States Vice President Al Gore had its premiere in Hollywood May 16th. The film mixes an account of climate science with the story of Gore's personal crusade to reverse global warming. Movie critic Kirk Honeycutt considers the film a success, meeting its goal of bringing "to a much larger audience... Al Gore's fascinating multimedia presentation of the facts and issues."

That same week, the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) launched two television ads in the United States that present the sceptics' case on global warming. "The campaign to limit carbon dioxide emissions is the single most important regulatory issue today," said Marlo Lewis, a CEI senior fellow. "It is nothing short of an attempt to suppress energy use, which in turn would be economically devastating - all to avert an alleged catastrophe whose scientific basis is dubious."

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Week ending May 21st 2006

The Climate Alliance of European Cities with Indigenous Rainforest Peoples has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by ten per cent every five years. The long-term strategy will result in a halving of emissions below the 1990 baseline by 2030. Climate Alliance cities and municipalities will cut emissions through energy conservation and efficiency measures and the use of renewable energy sources. They are also committed to avoiding procuring tropical timber derived from destructive logging and helping indigenous partners to conserve the rainforests.

"The new target... extends far beyond the year 2010, but also permits short-term monitoring of performance," reported Joachim Lorenz, a Munich city councillor. "It allows local authorities who are only just starting their climate protection activities to pursue concrete quantitative goals," he continued. The goal was announced at the 14th International Climate Alliance Annual Conference, held 4-6th May in Vienna, Austria. At the meeting, participants from across Europe exchanged experience and discussed strategies, measures and barriers affecting climate protection at the local level.

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China is to build an eco-city, Dongtan, near Shanghai. With energy from wind turbines, biofuels and recycled organic waste, managed by a system designed by Arup Urban Design and the University of East Anglia, the aim is to generate zero carbon emissions and reduce average energy demands by two-thirds through the city layout, energy infrastructure and building design. "We don't want to replicate a European city in China, or create an alienating futuristic environment," says Braulio Morera of Arup. "We want to reinterpret a Chinese city - and Chinese urban lifestyle - for the 21st century. Bicycles will be a major feature, as will boats, but the bikes will be powered by renewables, and the boats by hydrogen."

China increased its carbon emissions by a third between 1992 and 2002, according to the annual Little Green Data Book, published by the World Bank. The World Bank's Steen Jorgensen blames inefficient investment in power generation and warns that it will be difficult for a country such as China to switch to clean technology. "They can't afford to take [the old, heavily polluting power plants] out of commission to repair them because basically, if you don't have power for even three months, that has huge economic costs," he said.

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A new study suggests that conflicting influences on regional climate are generating substantial impacts in South Asia. "It appears that the whole tropical region in this area is being pulled in different directions," reports Veerabhadran (Ram) Ramanathan, director of the Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "The observed trend of reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface, with compensating solar heating aloft from the pollution, also called the ‘brown haze,’ appears to be masking the greenhouse warming in the northern Indian Ocean, while the greenhouse warming continues unabated in the southern Indian Ocean," he continued. "We are starting to see that the air pollution affects sunlight and is potentially having a major disruption of the rain patterns, with some regions getting more and some less."

Research by Tim Garrett and Chuanfeng Zhao of the University of Utah, has shown that the Arctic haze is heightening the effect of greenhouse warming. "Particulate pollution from factories and cars can be transported long distances to the Arctic, where it changes clouds so that they become more effective blankets, trapping more heat and further aggravating climate warming," said Garrett. The effect is most pronounced in the winter when there is no sunlight.

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Week ending May 14th 2006

The World Bank has announced a new project to promote clean energy in developing countries, the development of an Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. Over the next two years, World Bank staff will consider technology options, analyze the impact of climate change on developing countries and make specific programme proposals. At present, it is not clear how the programmes will be financed, though a number of funding schemes have been proposed. A grant may be created to help developing countries cut the cost of buying new high-efficiency energy technology and infrastructure. Another suggestion is that the gains from more efficient production from upgraded power plants could repay the loans that funded the overhaul.

The plan was criticized during discussions at the Development Committee session that ultimately approved the project. Colombian finance minister Alberto Carrasquilla, said that some of his colleagues "find the [project] to be biased toward the development of alternative, renewable sources of energy not yet commercially viable while neglecting the bigger picture of aiming for cleaner, more efficient traditional energy sources." Agnes van Ardenne, Dutch development minister, argued that the project primarily targets middle-income countries and that she would have preferred an "energy for all" initiative covering the millions who have no access at all to electricity.

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Chinese scientists have shown that climate change is having a serious impact on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, known as the "roof of the world". According to Dong Guangrong of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the glacier on the plateau is shrinking at a rate of seven per cent a year. He calls for world attention to the environmental deterioration caused by global warming in this area. Analysis of China's 681 weather station records confirms a regional warming trend of 0.9 degrees Celsius over the past 20 years.

A new study has revealed a weakening of the Walker Circulation, the equatorial flow of air that is linked to the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. The trend has occurred since the 1800s and amounts to a reduction in strength of 3.5 per cent. It has accelerated over the past 50 years. Though the trend is not large, "the Walker circulation is fundamental to climate across the globe," according to research leader Gabriel Vecchi of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in the United States.

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The United States government has made available, on request, a confidential draft of part of the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is not due to be formally published until 2007. The United States Climate Change Science Programme (CCSP) made the document freely available as it wanted as many experts and stakeholders as possible to comment on the draft report from the physical science working group. The IPCC Assessments are prepared and reviewed by hundreds of scientists and policy analysts but protocol dictates that the evolving text remains confidential until finally approved in February 2007.

The current draft, as released by the CCSP, reports that "there is widespread evidence of anthropogenic warming of the climate system in temperature observations taken at the surface, in the free atmosphere and in the oceans." It concludes that "it is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed global warming over the past 50 years." IPCC Chair, Rajendra Pachauri, was reported to have been unaware of the plan to publish the draft report. The IPCC has stressed that the current text is subject to change as the review process continues.

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Week ending May 7th 2006

As the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6) held a working meeting in California, Canada announced its support for the pact. "We've been looking at the Asia-Pacific Partnership for a number of months now because the key principles around [it] are very much in line with where our government wants to go," said Environment Minister Rona Ambrose, citing the involvement of China and India as an example. John Bennett of the Sierra Club responded that "Canada is being enthusiastic about a meaningless public relations stunt by the United States government when it should be talking about the importance of working... on a programme that has real targets."

The aim of the California meeting of the AP6 was to discuss "concrete steps" to spur the development of clean technology, with "tangible results over these next six months," according to Paula Dobriansky, speaking for the Bush Administration. Responding to criticism of the low level of financial backing from the United States government, James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said that that perspective is "completely turned around. Only with private sector investment does the technology get deployed. The government does not go out into the world and spend the several trillion dollars that are about to be spent on the technologies that are going to be the solutions to this problem." Government's role, he concluded, is to guide investment.

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Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, chair of Green Cross International, has called on the industrialized nations to establish a 50-billion-dollar fund to support solar power. "This idea reflects our vision of a way of helping the energy-impoverished in the developing world, while creating concentrations of solar energy in cities that could be used to prevent blackouts," he said. Marking the anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, he warned that oil and nuclear energy are not viable energy sources for the future.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that momentum is gathering for a switch from fossils fuels to renewable bioenergy sources such as sugar cane or sunflower seeds. "The gradual move away from oil has begun. Over the next 15 to 20 years we may see biofuels providing a full 25 per cent of the world’s energy needs," according to Alexander Müller of the FAO's Sustainable Development Department. "Oil at more than 70 dollars a barrel makes bio-energy potentially more competitive," he continued. "Also, in the last decade global environmental concerns and energy consumption patterns have built up pressure to introduce more renewable energy into national energy plans and to reduce reliance on fossil fuels." Brazil, with most new cars powered by flex fuel engines, is highlighted as an example for the rest of the world.

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The news of lower than expected emissions from European industry triggered a substantial drop in the price of carbon dioxide permits on the European market last week. Prices dropped by close to 50 per cent, causing investors to question the functioning of the European Union's carbon trading scheme. "It does raise the question whether there were too many permits issued and that the governments may have got it wrong," commented Louis Redshaw at Barclays Capital. "If there's a surplus there's no incentive to reduce emissions and the price collapses," said James Emanuel at brokers CO2e.com.

The Czech Republic has recently announced that its emissions during 2004 were about 15 per cent below the national cap. Dutch emissions fell eight per cent below. Estonia has recorded 2005 emissions 25 per cent below its cap and France almost 12 per cent below. Some analysts feel that the reduction in emissions indicates that the market is working. "This is really the first time since the system started that there has been anything other than bad news [for the environment]," said Chris Rogers of JPMorgan.

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Week ending April 30th 2006

The United States emitted a record quantity of greenhouse gases during 2004, according to the latest figures from the Environmental Protection Agency. Greater electricity consumption was the main cause of the 1.7 per cent increase from 2003. National carbon emissions have risen sharply in recent years despite concern about climate change and have increased by almost 16 per cent since 1990. Methane and nitrous oxide levels have, however, decreased by ten and two per cent, respectively, from 1990 levels.

David Read, Vice President of the London-based Royal Society, commented that "while the United Kingdom appears to be doing slightly better, its carbon dioxide emissions have been rising annually for the past three years." "The United States and the United Kingdom are the two leading scientific nations in the world and are home to some of the best climate researchers. But in terms of fulfilling the commitment made by their signature to the United Nations Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, neither country is demonstrating leadership by reducing their emissions to the levels required," he concluded.

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Scientists predict that global warming will mean drier summers in the Caribbean and parts of Central America. The forecast is based on a review of a number of climate model simulations. The model consensus was that a substantial decrease in tropical rainfall could occur by 2054, earlier according to some models. The regions most likely to experience summer drying are Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras.

Lead author of the study, David Neelan of the University of California at Los Angeles, said that "the regions in the tropics that get a lot of summer precipitation are going to get more, and the regions that get very little precipitation will get even less, if the models are correct." "Certain regions in between will get shifted from a moderate amount of precipitation to a low amount," he continued. "The bigger the temperature rise, the larger the change in precipitation." Commenting on the slight decrease in summer rainfall that has affected the Caribbean over the past 50 years, Neelin said that "it is plausible that the decrease is due to global warming, but there is not yet a smoking gun that shows that to be the case." It could be "part of a natural cycle."

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If you want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions become a vegetarian, according to a recent study from the University of Chicago. Gidon Eshel and Pamela Martin examined a range of typical American diets, considering the amount of fossil-fuel energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated for each. The vegetarian diet proved the most energy-efficient. "The less animal-based food you eat, and the more you replace those calories with plant-based food, the better off you are, in terms of your health as well as your contributions to the health of the planet," Eshel concludes.

In terms of total emissions, red meat was the worst offender, though the fish-based diet rivalled red meat in energy consumption. "The seafood portion of American diets is heavily skewed toward what is called charismatic predator fish," Eshel reported. "Sword, shark and tuna and so on require long-distance ocean journeys, and those efforts... require a lot of labour and a lot of fossil fuel."

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Week ending April 23rd 2006

The largest wind power project in China is to be developed in the Turpan Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The Huadian Corporation will invest US$1.87 billion in two million kilowatts of capacity. China's Law on Renewable Energy came into force on January 1st 2006 and emphasizes the development and use of solar energy and wind power. It includes a national renewable energy requirement that should increase the role of renewable energy to up to 10 per cent of total energy consumption by the year 2020. "China could and should be a world leader in renewable energy development," commented Yu Jie, Greenpeace energy policy advisor, when the law was passed last year.

Pennsylvania Energy Development Authority is giving 15 small wind turbine systems to municipalities, public authorities or schools to publicize the role of this technology in meeting energy needs. According to Pennsylvania governor Edward G Rendell, "by placing these windmills where many people can see them, Pennsylvanians will be able to learn about and experience alternative energy as part of their daily lives." Successful applicants will receive a Southwest Windpower small-scale wind system and basic installation at no charge, though they will have to pay a fee to connect to the grid and they must provide public outreach and education.

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A two-day meeting on desertification, hunger and poverty was held in Geneva, Switzerland, April 11-12th 2006. The aim was to find new ways of combating desertification. "The issue of desertification has largely been ignored by the international community. There is a lack of interest and a lack of support," said Liliane Ortega of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, the national representative to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. "The problem is that many poor countries don't have the means to fight desertification and the situation, because of human and climatic reasons, is getting worse and worse. It's not an issue – unlike climate change or biodiversity – in which the economic world is very interested," she continued.

The participants concluded that, alongside more foreign aid, there was a need for mobilization at the political level and from the countries affected. "It was not just a question of trying to find more money, but that there can be a partnership between the West and the developing world... that [the affected countries] have to act themselves but with the support of the West," commented Ortega. The meeting was a contribution to the International Year of Deserts and Desertification.

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Climate change could cause the extinction of tens of thousands of species over coming decades, according to a recent study. The researchers predict a substantial thinning out of biodiversity in hotspots such as the Caribbean basin. These hotspots are "the crown jewels of the planet's biodiversity," said lead author Jay Malcolm of the University of Toronto. Around 40 per cent of the species in these areas could disappear as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere double.

The study concludes that the tropical Andes, the Cape Floristic region (on the tip of South Africa), southwest Australia, and the Atlantic forests of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina are particularly vulnerable. Species in many of these regions have few avenues for escape. These hotspots "are essentially refugee camps for many of our planet's most unique plant and animals species," according to Lee Hannah of Conservation International. "If those areas are no longer habitable due to global warming, then we will ... be destroying the last sanctuaries many of these species have left.".

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Week ending April 16th 2006

"The debate is over. The science is in. The time to act is now. Global warming is a serious issue facing the world and California has taken an historic step with the release of this report," said California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. "We are all convinced that we can protect our environment and leave California a better place without harming our economy," he continued. Schwarzenegger was speaking at the launch of a report by the state's Climate Action Team. The report recommends means to achieve pollution reduction targets set last year: to reduce global warming emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, to 1990 levels by 2020 and to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Canada's new government has begun dismantling the nation's Climate Change Program, according to the Sierra Club of Canada. "Apparently, the federal government has launched a stealth campaign against action on climate change," said John Bennett of the Sierra Club. Programmes announced in Action Plan 2000 have not been renewed and Natural Resources Canada has been reducing its staff. The government has been sending equivocal signals regarding its commitment to the Kyoto process since its election two months ago.

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The region of Gedo, in the south of Somalia, is undergoing a "critical nutrition situation", according to a team led by Food Security Analysis Unit-Nutrition. With pastureland disappearing and most water sources dry, "the only coping mechanisms left are migration; reducing the number and quantity of meals; collection and selling firewood by the poor; and food aid," said Sidow Ibrahim Addou of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

It is estimated that around 1.7 million people in northern, central and southern Somalia are facing an acute crisis because of drought. Christian Balslev-Olesen, United Nations Acting Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, warned that "Somalia is facing a drought, an emergency situation - the most severe in a decade - and this is coming on top of a situation where you already have all the most difficult indicators for human development," he said. Drought-induced hardship is putting recent political progress in danger. "The two elements - the political peace process and the humanitarian situation - of course do present two different momentums. But they are interlinked," he concluded.

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Analysis of the longest pollen records for Central and South America suggests that, on geological timescales, global warming is accompanied by an expansion of the rainforest and an increase in biodiversity. "We found that pollen diversity tracks global temperature through time over millions of years. Diversity increases as the planet warms and decreases as it cools," reports Carlos Jaramillo of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

Jaramillo proposes that the changes in area drive speciation and extinction. "There is good correlation between area and number of species: more area implies more species. During global warming, tropical areas expand and diversity goes up, the opposite happens during global cooling," he said. If this is the case, fragmentation of modern tropical forest could be equated to a global cooling period, because forested areas are shrinking dramatically, resulting in plummeting diversity in the forests that remain."

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Week ending April 9th 2006

China is proposing to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 846 millions tons annually through the installation of energy-saving technologies in new buildings. "If all of the national energy-saving standards have been fully implemented by 2020, China will be greatly contributing towards curbing global warming," said Minister of Construction Wang Guangtao. Vice-Minister of Construction Qiu Baoxing said the proposal could bring business opportunities for Chinese real estate developers, who may trade emission quotas with developed countries. The announcement was made at an international exhibition and forum on green and smart buildings in Beijing.

Targets have already been set for saving energy in real estate development. By 2010, all new buildings should be 50 per cent more energy-efficient then in 2005. One real estate developer called for economic incentives to promote the campaign. "The extra cost is the major reason why the market is slow to react," said Zhang Jun. Vice-Premier Zeng Peiyan regards the nation-wide energy-saving campaign as crucial because of resource shortages. "If we don't take action now the situation will become worse," he said.

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Background


Climate change is increasing the number of the most severe tropical storms, according to a recent study. The research includes processes, such as wind shear, neglected in previous work. "We were criticized by the seasonal forecasters for not including the other environmental factors," said Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Analysing the number of category four and five hurricanes alongside a range of environmental factors, sea surface temperature emerged as the only factor that could explain the observed rising trend.

Review of over 100 studies of trends in the global water cycle reveals that, although the global water cycle has intensified overall, there has been no consistent increase in the total number of storms or of floods. "We are talking about two possible overall responses to global climate warming: first an intensification of the water cycle being manifested by more moisture in the air, more precipitation, more runoff, more evapotranspiration, which we do see in this study; and second, the potential effects of the intensification that would include more flooding and more tropical storms which we don't see in this study," said Thomas Huntington of the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences.

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British Prime Minister Tony Blair, speaking in New Zealand, has called for urgent action on a post-Kyoto climate agreement. "I don't believe that we can wait five years to conclude a new agreement. I think we've got to do it much more quickly than that," he told a climate change conference in Wellington. He argued that "such an agreement, if it's going to be successful, has got to include all the major countries of the world and that includes the major developing economies."

He believes that new technology will be a critical factor in limiting climate change. "It's almost as if we've got to produce the type of technological revolution that gripped us with information technology," he said. While in Australia, Blair gave a broad endorsement to the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. "I think the fact that you've got these initiatives at the moment, all tending in the same direction, is actually a positive sign, it's not a negative one," he said, arguing that such initiatives could eventually be brought together. Back home, the Blair government has been accused of a "pitiful" failure to meet its target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

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Week ending April 2nd 2006

World Water Day, on March 22nd 2006, was marked by the Fourth World Water Forum, an international meeting in Mexico City on management of the world's fresh water resources. Over one billion people do not have access to safe drinking water and four out of every ten people lack access to sanitation. In a keynote speech, Nobel Prize Winner Mario Molina warned that climate change and inappropriate water management might intensify global warming, creating "an intolerable risk." There was disappointment that the Forum declaration did not declare water a human right, referring only to its critical importance.

Director-General of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Koïchiro Matsuura, stressed the importance of the theme, Water and Culture. "Traditional knowledge alerts us to the fact that water is not merely a commodity," he said. "Since the dawn of humanity, water has inspired us, giving life spiritually, materially, intellectually and emotionally. Sharing and applying the rich contents of our knowledge systems, including those of traditional and indigenous societies, as well as lessons learned from our historical interactions with water, may greatly contribute to finding solutions for today’s water challenges."

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The European Union (EU) has launched a new initiative, the CASTOR Project, to develop the capture of greenhouse gases as they are produced by power stations and their storage underground. The aim is to cut Europe's emissions of carbon dioxide by ten per cent (or 30 per cent of the emissions of large industrial facilities, mainly power stations). It is also intended that the cost of carbon capture and storage be reduced from the current 60 euros a tonne to around 20 euros a tonne. "By developing technologies for carbon capture and storage, we can reduce emissions in the medium-term as we move to large-scale use of renewable, carbon-free energy sources," commented EU science commissioner Janez Potocnik.

The CASTOR Project will operate the world's largest carbon capture installation at Esbjerg in Denmark to test new carbon separation technologies. Four carbon storage sites will provide case studies representative of the range of geological conditions across Europe. Carbon capture and storage is seen as a possible "medium-term solution to the current dichotomy of our dependence on fossil fuel technology and the fact that alternative sources of energy aren't yet ready to satisfy the global demand for energy," according to EU spokeswoman Antonia Mochan.

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Climate change may be contributing to the resurgence of malaria in the highlands of East Africa, according to an international team of scientists. Contradicting previous work, the researchers found a half a degree Celsius rise in regional temperature, which could result in enhanced abundance of mosquitoes. "We showed that a small increase in temperature can lead to a much larger increase in the abundance of mosquitoes," said team member Mercedes Pascual of the University of Michigan. "And because mosquito abundance is generally quite low in these highland regions, any increase in abundance can be an important factor in transmission of the disease."

The scientists are cautious in attributing climate change as a causal factor as other processes, such as drug and pesticide resistance, changing land use patterns and human migration, may be playing a part. "Our results do not mean that temperature is the only or the main factor driving the increase in malaria, but that it is one of many factors that should be considered," Pascual said. She added that "this is a very polarized field, in terms of supporting or not supporting the role of climate versus other factors. We don't want to contribute to the polarization, which I think is very unproductive in terms of the science. I hope we can move from this sort of debate into a more constructive one about interactions and relative roles of all the factors that may be contributing to the resurgence of malaria."

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Week ending March 26th 2006

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record 381 parts per million by volume during 2005, according to preliminary figures from the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). David Hofmann from NOAA said that levels rose by 2.6 parts per million from the previous year.

Pieter Tans, a carbon dioxide analyst for NOAA, reckons the latest figures confirm a worrying trend. "We don't see any sign of a decrease; in fact, we're seeing the opposite, the rate of increase is accelerating," he said.

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Over the past 40 years, there have been fewer rain- and snow-producing storms in middle latitudes, but the storms that have occurred have been stronger, each storm generating more precipitation. A new study by the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), based on global satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, has examined the implications of this trend. The results show conflicting warming and cooling effects and an overall increase in precipitation amounts.

NASA scientist George Tselioudis notes that "there are consequences of having fewer but stronger storms in the middle latitudes both on the radiation and on the precipitation fields." The net effect on the radiation balance should lead to cooling, it is calculated, with the cooling effect of the thicker clouds in the more intense storms outweighing the warming effect as global cloud cover is reduced. Overall, precipitation levels have increased, despite the drop in the number of storms.

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Keeping carbon dioxide levels from reaching potentially dangerous levels could cost less than 1 per cent of gross world product as of 2050, according to Klaus Laukner and Jeffrey Sachs of The Earth Institute in New York in the United States. They consider that this cost is well within the reach of both developed and developing nations.

They warn, however, that there must be simultaneous progress in the way energy is found, transformed, transported and used. "Today's technology base is insufficient to provide clean and plentiful energy for 9 billion people," the authors conclude. "To satisfy tomorrow's energy needs, it will not be enough simply to apply current best practices. Instead, new technologies, especially carbon capture and sequestration at large industrial plants, will need to be brought to maturity."

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Week ending March 19th 2006

A survey of 47 journalists in four developing countries, Honduras, Jamaica, Sri Lanka and Zambia, reveals that the media in these countries have a poor understanding of climate change and do not consider reporting the issue a high priority. The survey was conducted by the Panos Institute, based in London in the United Kingdom. According to Panos, the media, policymakers and scientists should encourage an "urgently needed" public discussion.

On Zambia, the report says that "the little reportage that appears barely scratches the surface, and lacks in-depth analysis of what climate change is, what its effects are, and the available strategies to cope with them." The journalists interviewed said they lacked access to clear, accurate information and that scientific jargon made reporting difficult, especially in the case of reporters who do not speak English.

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"Given the gravity of the situation and the importance of taking action, I hope that the global community will move a little more rapidly with some future agreements" on climate change, said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), speaking during a recent visit to Oslo, the capital of Norway. He said that the inhabitants of low-lying countries and small islands are "living in a state of fear." "We must understand the reasons behind their fears. We're really talking about their very existence, the complete devastation of the land on which they're living."

While refusing to be drawn on the conclusions of the forthcoming IPCC assessment, he did comment on the latest research on the link between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, saying that "if one looks at just the scientific evidence that's been collected, it's certainly becoming far more compelling. There is no question about it." He also reckons that the costs of slowing global warming might be less than forecast in the IPCC's 2001 report.

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Reducing emissions of greenhouse gas methane by a fifth could prevent 370,000 deaths worldwide between 2010 and 2030, according to Jason West of Princeton University in the United States and his collaborators. The money saved by preventing these deaths would exceed the cost of the emissions reduction.

Methane reacts in the lower atmosphere to produce ozone, which has been linked to premature deaths in the industrialized nations as a result of cardio-respiratory disease and other health problems. Emissions are being reduced under the Kyoto Protocol through, for example, capture of the gas and its subsequent use in generating energy. The researchers conclude that "methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy."

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Week ending March 12th 2006

United States President George W Bush says he is "fired up" about renewable energy. "We're close to changing the way we live in an incredibly positive way," he said while visiting the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory. He downplayed the push to build nuclear power plants and emphasised clean coal, ethanol, hybrid cars, wind and solar power. To achieve the "national goal of becoming less dependent on foreign sources of oil," Bush said "we're not relying upon one aspect of renewable energy to help this country become less dependent. We're talking about a variety of fronts."

"I wasn't satisfied with the federal response," Bush acknowledged, responding to a White House report on the government's response to Hurricane Katrina. "We will learn ... to better protect the American people." The report found numerous failures in the government's response and proposed over 100 fixes, including better communications, improved evacuation plans and first aid training for students. It was concluded that the White House should have recognized problems earlier and moved faster to coordinate federal aid.

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Mangrove plants account for a tenth of the dissolved organic carbon flowing from land to the ocean even though they cover less than 0.1 per cent of the land surface world-wide. The results, which suggest that the mangrove is one of the main sources of dissolved organic carbon in the ocean, stem from a study of the carbon output from a large Brazilian mangrove forest by Thorsten Dittmar at Florida State University in Tallahassee, United States, and his collaborators.

"To understand global biogeochemical cycles it is crucial to quantify the sources of marine dissolved organic carbon," according to Dittmar and his co-authors. "We show that mangroves play an unexpected role in the global carbon cycle." The mangrove root system traps leaf litter, rich in carbon, running off the land and dissolved organic matter is leached into the coastal waters from this sediment. Tides then flush the carbon into the open ocean. The mangrove ecosystem has declined by nearly half over recent decades because of coastal development. The researchers fear that this trend may be cutting off the link between the land and ocean, affecting the composition of the atmosphere and global climate.

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Background


According to the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project sea level around the Pacific island of Tonga appears to have risen by about ten centimetres over the past 13 years. Sea level has been rising at all stations monitored, but the rise has been greatest at Tonga, where it averaged 8.4mm per year. The oldest gauge in the Pacific, at Lautoka, Fiji, was installed in October 1992 and shows an average trend of a 2.8mm rise a year since then.

The coordinators of the monitoring project advise caution interpreting the data. "Observed trends in sea level include natural variability, for example, events such as El Niño and effects due to many other atmospheric, oceanographic and geological processes. Longer-term data sets for all stations are required in order to separate the effects of the different signals."

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Week ending March 5th 2006

The Aletsch glacier in Switzerland, the longest in Europe, lost 66m last year. Swiss scientists claim this reduction to be an effect of global warming. In total, 84 of the 91 glaciers surveyed in a Swiss Academy of Sciences study shrank. A previous study from the University of Zurich reported that Switzerland's glaciers had shrunk by about a fifth over the previous 15 years. Andreas Bauder of ETH Zürich, warns, though, that predicting the impact of climate change is difficult because, as well as temperature, glaciers respond to rain and snowfall and these parameters are hard to forecast.

A reduction in the Rocky Mountain snowpack has slowed down the release of carbon dioxide from forest soils, according to scientists from the University of Colorado and other American institutions. The effect occurs as the reduction in insulation cools the soil and retards the metabolism of the microbes responsible for the release of the greenhouse gas. "I view this as a small amount of good news in a large cloud of bad news," said Russell Monson, who led the research.

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The possibility of a binding International Agreement on Forests is being debated at the United Nations Forum on Forests, which opened February 13th in New York. Opinions differ, with some nations, such as China, supporting the proposal while others, for example, Brazil, are strongly opposed. China's representative, Qu Guilin, considers the negotiations "critical... to the future management, conservation and sustainable development of forests at the global level." Brazil argues that the adoption of quantifiable targets is not an appropriate response to the threats facing the world's forests.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil announced the opening of two new national parks and the expansion of an existing reserve as the Forum opened. A further four national forests, where sustainable logging will be permitted, and an environmental protection zone, within which development is strictly constrained, have also been created. One aim of the creation of these protected areas is to limit development along the new BR-163 highway from Cuiabá to Santarém.

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The United Nations is relying on Canada's new government to respect its obligations under the climate treaty. John Hay, communications director for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, warned that "there is a compliance regime... which foresees that countries do need to meet their commitments, and if they don't there will be implications." Canada currently exceeds its Kyoto target by around 25 per cent.

Canadian immigration minister, Monte Solberg, has described the nation's Kyoto target as "insane". "If we decide to ban all planes, trains and automobiles in Canada and entirely abandon all manufacturing, stop all construction and shut every mine we would still fall short" of the target, he claims. "In order to reach our Kyoto targets we will have to get to work by bicycle, foot or oxen," he continued. "Excuse me, I've got an appointment downtown. When does the next express oxen come by?" It appears, though, that the new government may have changed its pre-election line. Environment minister Rona Ambrose says that the government will "move on very quickly" with a new climate action plan. "I think we not only have the political will from the prime minister, and from myself and my colleagues, on this issue, we also have the public will on our side."

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Comment


Week ending February 26th 2006

The industrialized nations have shown "significant progress" in working out new policies and rules and the 2012 Kyoto targets remain within reach, according to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The announcement, based on information filed early this year, marked the first anniversary of the date the Kyoto Protocol came into force. Overall emissions from the industrialized nations fell from 18.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 1990 to 17.3 billion tonnes in 2003.

The Kyoto nations were "on their way to lower their emission levels by at least 3.5 per cent below 1990 levels" by the 2008-12 target period, according to Richard Kinley, acting head of the UNFCCC. With extra measures, Kinley considers that the Kyoto nations could reach the overall target of at least a 5 per cent cut below 1990 levels. But they would have to "sustain or even intensify their efforts," he continued. "More is needed." The UNFCCC Secretariat reckons that the Clean Development Mechanism could cut 800 million tonnes of emissions by 2012, according to Christine Zumkeller, coordinator of the UNFCCC Project-based Mechanisms.

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Plants are losing less water as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, and this means that more moisture is left in the soil, according to a recent investigation. The finding may explain why river flow around the world is increasing, although there has been little overall change in rainfall amounts. Nicola Gedney, from the Joint Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Research in the United Kingdom, led the team that conducted the study. She says that the research "answers a key question about what is driving the changes in the global water cycle." "Carbon dioxide is not only a greenhouse gas, it can also affect the world's water directly through plant life."

The effect occurs as high levels of carbon dioxide in the air mean that the plant functions more efficiently. As a result, the stomata, the tiny openings through which plants take in the carbon that supports growth, remain open for less time and less water is "breathed" out. Modelling the process world-wide, the first time this has been attempted, Gedney concludes that "climate change on its own would have slightly reduced run-off, whereas the carbon dioxide effect on plants would have increased global run-off by about 5 per cent." The combined effect matches the change in flow that has been observed in reality.

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Comment


Scientists meeting in Winnipeg, Canada, to discuss the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study have warned that climate change is seriously affecting the physical environment of the Arctic and the lives of the Inuit communities. David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, warns that the polar sea ice is melting at a rate of about 74,000 square kilometres a year and this has been the case for the past 30 years. "This is a very significant result, and it's not some sort of trend that's going to shift back the other way," he said. Louis Fortier, from the Université Laval in Quebec City, says that the Inuit are already experiencing the negative effects of climate change and sea-level rise as ice is lost, shorelines erode and food sources disappear.

The United States Fish and Wildlife Service has announced that it is opening the formal process to list polar bears as "threatened" due to the impact of global warming. The move occurs in response to a lawsuit filed by three conservation groups. "These animals need protection now," warned Andrew Wetzler of the Natural Resources Defense Council. "Everything in their lives depends on the ice sheet, and that ice sheet is disappearing at an unprecedented rate. If current pollution levels continue we simply will not recognize the Arctic anymore."

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Week ending February 19th 2006

A new report concludes that renewable energy must play a major role in global energy supply to meet the threat of climate change. The report, from the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, argues that the cost competitiveness of renewable energy technology means that action should be taken at the national level without waiting for strengthened global environmental agreements. It was launched at the 9th Session of the United Nations Environment Programme Governing Council and Global Ministerial Environment Forum, held in early February.

John Christensen from the Risø Centre on Climate, Energy and Sustainable Development in Denmark, the report's lead author, says that many renewable energy technologies have "moved from being a passion for the dedicated few to a major economic sector attracting large industrial companies and financial institutions." Nevertheless, he comments, "although there are many good political, economic and social reasons for stimulating a more rapid development of renewable energy - not the least of which is climate change - the sector is hampered by a number of market distortions and institutional, financial, and economic barriers."

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Sweden is committing to replace all fossil fuels with renewable energy sources within 15 years in an ambitious attempt to become the world's first near oil-free economy. "Our dependency on oil should be broken by 2020," said Mona Sahlin, Minister of Sustainable Development. "There shall always be better alternatives to oil, which means no house should need oil for heating, and no driver should need to turn solely to gasoline."

The Swedish government is working with car manufacturers to develop vehicles that burn ethanol and other biofuels. Grants are available to health and library services to convert from oil use and green taxes are being used to encourage homeowners. At present, 32 per cent of the country's energy is generated from oil.

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Comment


A report in the medical journal, The Lancet, warns that health risks are likely to get worse as climate change and other environmental and societal pressures increase. "The advent of changes in global climate signals that we are now living beyond the Earth's capacity to absorb a major waste product," according to the article's authors, who were led by Anthony McMichael of the Australian National University in Canberra. Calling for research to identify groups at risk, they argue that health concerns must be included in the international climate debate. "Recognition of widespread health risks should widen these debates beyond the already important considerations of economic disruption."

Reviewing scientific papers published over the past five years, the authors conclude that "the resultant risks to health... are anticipated to compound over time" and that climate change may already have led to lower production of food in some regions due to changes in temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, pests and diseases. "In food insecure populations this alteration may already be contributing to malnutrition," the review states.

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Week ending February 12th 2006

The report Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change concludes that global warming may have more serious consequences than previous assessments have suggested. Particular concerns are raised about the west Antarctic ice sheet. Chris Rapley, head of the British Antarctic Survey, warns that the massive ice sheet may be starting to disintegrate. "The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report characterized Antarctica as a slumbering giant in terms of climate change. I would say it is now an awakened giant," he warns. Based on the proceedings of a 2005 conference, the report has been published by the United Kingdom government.

Writing in the foreword, British Prime Minister Tony Blair concludes that "it is now plain that the emission of greenhouse gases... is causing global warming at a rate that is unsustainable." The conference participants considered the prospects to be slim that greenhouse gas levels can be kept below "dangerous" levels. A two degrees Celsius rise in global temperature is a commonly-accepted threshold beyond which it is believed unacceptable impacts are inevitable. To hold the temperature rise to this level would require a 450ppm limit on atmospheric concentrations. In considering means of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, the report identifies vested interests, cultural barriers to change and lack of awareness as hampering the deployment of proven renewable energy and "clean coal" technologies.

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In his State of the Union address, United States President George W Bush called for a break in his country's addiction to oil. The main rationale was stated to be national security, reducing dependence on imports, though environmental improvement was also cited. Clean energy research is to be stepped up by 22 per cent. The move was welcomed by climate analysts, though with some caution and scepticism. "The first step in curing an addiction is recognizing that you have a problem. He's stood up and taken the first step in the 'oil-aholics' programme," commented Steve Sawyer from Greenpeace. But "this is not a conversion" to Kyoto-style thinking, warned Pål Prestrud of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, Norway.

Leading American climate researcher James Hansen of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NASA) claims that the Bush administration is trying to stop him speaking out on global warming. He says that public affairs staff at NASA have been told to vet his public appearances and pronouncements: "they feel their job is to be this censor of information going out to the public." NASA denies that there has been any effort to gag Hansen.

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The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has advanced a proposal to unlock US$7.24 trillion of untapped wealth to attack problems such as global warming, pandemics, poverty and conflict. According to Inge Kaul, UNDP special adviser, "the way we run our economies today is vastly expensive and inefficient - we don't manage risk well and don't prevent crises. Money is wasted because we dribble aid, and the costs of not solving the problems are much higher than what we would pay for getting the financial markets to lend the money." Nations should account for the cost of failed policies and use cash saved "upfront" to avert crises.

The UNDP plan is based on six financial schemes: pollution permit trading; cutting poor countries' borrowing costs; reducing debt costs; accelerating access to vaccines; making use of remittances from migrants; and underwriting loans to market investors to lower interest rates. The proposal has been published in the book The New Public Finance. Trevor Manuel, South Africa's finance minister, reckons that the proposal addresses one of the most profound challenges of modern public finance, "how to construct better partnerships between governments and private sector players and how to strengthen cooperation between nations in pursuit of common interests.”

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Week ending February 5th 2006

2005 has taken the record for the warmest year world-wide, according to the latest analysis from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NASA). "It's fair to say that it probably is the warmest since we have modern meteorological records," said Drew Shindell of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "Using indirect measurements that go back farther, I think it's even fair to say that it's the warmest in the last several thousand years."

The American results differ from those issued recently by a British team from the University of East Anglia, in Norwich, and the Exeter-based Hadley Centre. The provisional estimate from the British scientists places 2005 as the second-warmest year, some way behind 1998. The difference is due to the handling of the Arctic data. The available evidence suggests was that this region remarkably warm during 2005. "We believe that the remarkable Arctic warmth of 2005 is real, and the inclusion of estimated Arctic temperatures is the primary reason for our rank of 2005 as the warmest year," say the NASA researchers. The British team takes a more conservative approach in extrapolating over data-sparse regions.

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Australian researchers have shown that sea-level rise has accelerated in recent decades. Analysis of historic records of sea level reveals a trend of 1.44mm a year over the period since 1870, but the rate has increased to 1.75mm per year during the period since 1950. Projecting forward to the year 2100 suggests that global sea level could rise by 28 to 34cm this century.

John Church of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, co-author of the study, warns that the future rise in sea level "means there will be increased flooding of low-lying areas when there are storm surges. It means increased coastal erosion on sandy beaches; we're going to see increased flooding on island nations."

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The periodic warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean as El Niño waxes and wanes is affecting the reproduction of southern right whales, according to a long-term study. "The whales produce fewer calves than expected in years when El Niño makes waters warmer in the western South Atlantic off Antarctica," reports Vicky Rowntree from the University of Utah. "The warmer water causes a reduction in the abundance of krill, which are shrimp-like crustaceans eaten by large whales and other predators."

The population of southern right whales has been severely depleted by commercial whaling over past centuries, but a recovery has begun in recent decades. The researchers are concerned that a consistent trend in temperature of the Southern Ocean, as predicted to accompany global warming, could threaten this recovery. The average temperature of the ocean off the Antarctic Peninsula rose by just over one degree Celsius during the second half of the 20th century.

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Week ending January 29th 2006

A survey of attitudes in the United Kingdom has revealed that the majority of the British public prefer the promotion of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures to the relaunch of a nuclear power programme. The study was undertaken by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Ipsos MORI. "The survey findings suggest that, given the numbers of people who are opposed to the renewal of nuclear power, there remains considerable potential for conflict around this issue. Additionally, many of those who do accept new nuclear power for Britain do so only reluctantly, and only if renewables and other strategies are developed and used alongside," said project leader Nick Pidgeon from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom.

Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre reckons that claims that nuclear power can solve the problems of climate change are "simplistic". He believes that, as nuclear power stations reach the end of their lives, the United Kingdom could easily offset the loss of production through energy efficiency measures. "If you've got money to spend on tackling climate change then you don't spend it on supply. You spend it on reducing demand," he said. The survey results demonstrated a lack of faith in British democracy as 62 per cent believed that nuclear power stations will be built in the United Kingdom regardless of public attitudes.

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A new energy efficiency guide for industry in Asia has been published by the The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The guidebook includes case studies of energy solutions in over forty companies across nine countries. The companies, in the cement, chemicals, ceramics, pulp and paper, and steel sectors, reduced their carbon emissions by up to 85,000 tons a year by adopting energy efficiency measures. The Energy Efficiency Guide for Industry in Asia is available in English, Bahasa Indonesia, Chinese, Sinhala, Thai and Vietnamese.

"This guide comes at a crucial time as studies show that Asia's energy use and related carbon dioxide emissions will rise by more than 50 per cent by 2030," said Surendra Shrestha, UNEP regional director for Asia and the Pacific. "Asian economies are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change." "Energy efficiency is vital because rising oil prices threaten Thailand's energy security and economic growth," commented Pravich Rattanapien, Thai Minister of Science and Technology. "Technological research can help companies to find new technologies that reduce energy consumption."

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The United Nations World Food Programme faces a US$44 million shortfall for its work in East Africa. Without additional support, there may be no food to distribute in drought-affected areas by the end of February. Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti have been affected by severe drought with the year's crop lost. "It is imperative that the donor community step up to the plate and avert this impending food crisis affecting some of the world's Least Developed Countries (LDCs)," said Anwarul K. Chowdhury, the United Nations High Representative for LDCs, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States. "For countries like Somalia, Djibouti, and Ethiopia... the situation is made even more precarious given the high levels of poverty."

The failure of the rains at the end of 2005 and long-term civil unrest means that close to 1.7 million people in Somalia are in need or urgent assistance, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. "The drought compounds what was already a dire humanitarian situation, and is affecting communities in areas beset by years of high malnutrition and morbidity rates, chronic food insecurity, clan fighting, and suffering from consecutive bad harvests," reported Maxwell Gaylard, United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia.

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Week ending January 22nd 2006

The inaugural meeting of the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP-6) took place in Sydney, Australia, January 11-12th 2006. The six nations involved are Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the United States. The aim of the partnership, according to United States energy secretary Samuel Bodman, is to "work together with the private sector... to take concrete action to meet energy and environment needs while securing a more prosperous future for our citizens." In a statement issued at the end of the meeting, outlining the partnership's strategy, the group said that it recognized that "fossil fuels underpin our economies, and will be an enduring reality for our lifetimes and beyond. It is therefore critical that we work together to develop, demonstrate and implement cleaner and lower emissions technologies that allow for the continued economic use of fossil fuels while addressing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions." At the meeting, both China and India stressed the role of technology transfer and poverty alleviation.

The partners have stressed that the alliance rests on a non-binding compact designed to complement rather than replace the Kyoto Protocol. "While Kyoto puddles on nicely, the real reductions will come from technology," claimed Ian Macfarlane, Australia's Minister for Industry. "This is not a diplomatic love-in. It's a hard-edged business plan with targets and reporting duties," he continued. Catherine Fitzpatrick of Greenpeace reckons that the new agreement is more a trade pact than an environmental solution. "The short-term interests of the fossil-fuel sector have been put ahead of the long-term health and welfare of ordinary people," she concluded. The inaugural meeting set up task forces covering cleaner fossil-fuel energy, renewable energy, power generation, steel, aluminium, cement, coal mining, and buildings and appliances.

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Frank Keppler of the Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg, Germany, and his colleagues claim to have discovered a new source for methane, arguing that plants may produce up to a third of this greenhouse gas. "We suggest that this newly identified source may have important implications for the global methane budget and may call for a reconsideration of the role of natural methane sources in past climate change," they write in a Nature article. It had previously been thought that methane could only be produced in environments that lack oxygen, but laboratory experiments demonstrated that plants emit methane even under normal, oxygen-rich conditions. "Until now all the textbooks have said that biogenic methane can only be produced in the absence of oxygen," Keppler says. "For that simple reason, nobody looked closely at this."

The results could bring into question the effectiveness of tree planting to soak up atmospheric carbon dioxide. "We now have the spectre that new forests might increase greenhouse warming through methane emissions rather than decrease it by being 'sinks' for carbon dioxide," noted David Lowe of New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. Craig Trotter, at Landcare Research, based in Lincoln, New Zealand, questioned whether methane emissions from forests occur from all species under all conditions or only when trees were under stress. "Even if such small emissions do occur, there remain major benefits in using forests to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions," he said, estimating that New Zealand's plantation forests would remain between 95 per cent and 99 per cent effective at offsetting greenhouse gas emissions even taking into account the methane handicap.

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A fungal disease driven by climate change threatens hundreds of species of amphibians, according to a recent report. "Disease is the bullet that's killing the frogs," said the study's lead scientist J Alan Pounds of the Tropical Science Center's Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve in Costa Rica. "But climate change is pulling the trigger. Global warming is wreaking havoc on amphibians and soon will cause staggering losses of biodiversity," he concluded.

The mechanism identified by the research lies in the effect of climate warming on the dynamics of the fungal infection. Higher temperatures lead to greater cloud cover and hence cooler days but warmer nights, which moderates the temperature range and favours the disease. Extremes in temperature kill the fungus. According to the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment, nearly one-third of the world's 6,000 or so species of frogs, toads and salamanders face extinction as a result of a diverse range of pressures.

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Week ending January 15th 2006

The opposition Labor Party has called on the Australian government to prepare for a "flood" of refugees from the Pacific Islands as sea level rises. "Australia needs to establish an international coalition, particularly from Pacific rim countries, so that when a country does become uninhabitable Australia does its fair share," argued Anthony Albanese, opposition environment spokesman. "The Howard government can't continue to simply pretend that this is an issue that doesn't have to be dealt with in our region." Moreover, "we need to establish a United Nations charter in terms of refugee recognition which isn't there at the moment in terms of environmental refugees," he concluded.

The Australian government was quick to dismiss the call for action. "To start planning an evacuation of the Pacific is really a ludicrous policy," responded environment minister Ian Campbell. "We've established the world's leading sea-level change monitoring equipment across the Pacific, in cooperation with our Pacific neighbours and we work on a range of adaptation measures with them. But to be planning in the year 2006 for something that may not happen for 20, 30, 40 years, or may not happen at all (is wrong), when there are so many things that we need to be doing." Nevertheless, the Labor plan was welcomed by Pacific islanders. "Tuvalu does support the development of new policies that support the Pacific by any future Australian government," said Prime Minister Maatia Toafa. "The proposals... are very much in line with the Marshall Islands thinking," said the foreign minister Gerald Zachios of the Marshall Islands.

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Research by a multi-institutional team has shown that large-scale plantations, while offsetting carbon emissions, can have adverse effects on the environment. "We believe that decreased stream flow and changes in soil and water quality are likely as plantations are increasingly grown for biological carbon sequestration," the ten authors concluded in a paper in the journal Science. The study, led by Duke University, was based on field data and modelling.

"After about ten years' growth under intensive plantations, about one-in-eight of the streams that were in the areas that we studied had no flow for a year or more, and overall there was a 50 per cent reduction in stream flow," reported Damien Barrett from CSIRO in Australia. Using plantations as a means of managing the carbon concentration in the atmosphere is "about trade-offs, it's about maximizing carbon sequestration benefit and minimizing the adverse flow-on effects by locating plantations in the landscape," he concludes.

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A new study concludes that the world is running out of fertile land and that food production may fail to keep up with the planet's growing population. The results are based on maps of global land use derived from satellite information and agricultural census data. Navin Ramankutty of the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States said that "the maps show, very strikingly, that a large part of our planet (roughly 40 per cent) is being used for either growing crops or grazing cattle." "One of the major changes we see is the fast expansion of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, grown for export to China and the EU," he continued.

There is concern that there is little space left for agricultural expansion. "Except for Latin America and Africa, all the places in the world where we could grow crops are already being cultivated. The remaining places are either too cold or too dry to grow crops," warned Ramankutty. The project will continue with the development of the Earth Collaboratory, an internet-based databank drawing on the expertise of scientists, environmentalists and the public world-wide.

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Week ending January 8th 2006

Seven states in the Northeast United States have announced an agreement to control carbon dioxide emissions through a mandatory "cap-and-trade" programme. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) aims to stabilize emissions from power plants in the region at current levels by the year 2015, and reduce emissions by 10 per cent from current levels by 2019. There will also be energy efficiency and other emissions reduction projects outside of the power sector. The states involved are Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Vermont.

Governor George Pataki of New York, a Republican, pioneered the RGGI proposal. "My goal in proposing the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in 2003 was to bring states together to tackle a significant environmental challenge that we all face, knowing that a collaborative effort is the most effective policy," he said. According to Delaware Governor Ruth Ann Minner, a Democrat, "this historic agreement represents the first significant step toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions in this nation. I am proud that Delaware has been part of this very important effort which I believe will result in measurable reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a manner that maintains reliability and economic certainty in our electrical generating sector. I also see the potential for this programme serving as a national model."

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The Global Governance Initiative, a World Economic Forum project, has concluded that the world has slipped backwards in the areas of environment and human rights during 2005. In the environment sector, governments scored poorly for a number of reasons: a lack of high-level political commitment to global environmental goals; few countries slowed or reduced greenhouse gas emissions; no serious frameworks to ensure ecosystem integrity; and hundreds of millions of people still lack access to clean water and sanitation.

Progress has, though, been made in other areas. Richard Samans of the World Economic Forum cites the outcome of the December 2005 World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong, PR China, as an example of "how the international community is beginning to work harder to alleviate poverty. But it "still has a long way to go," he continued. "Much remains to be done in 2006 to transform the 'Doha Development Round' from an aspiration to a concrete plan of action. A lot of hard bargaining lies ahead." Other commentators were less impressed by the outcome in Hong Kong, citing the lack of any clear commitment on the part of the leading industrialized nations to open up their markets to developing countries and end subsidies to domestic producers.

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A food additive could cut significantly the amount of methane released by flatulent cows. "In some experiments we get a 70 per cent decrease, which is quite staggering," said John Wallace of the Rowett Research Institute in Aberdeen, Scotland. The food additive is based on fumaric acid, which occurs naturally and is essential to the respiration of animal and vegetable tissue.

"In total around 14 per cent of global methane comes from the guts of farm animals. It is worth doing something about," Wallace reckons. In 2003, the New Zealand government proposed a flatulence tax - methane emitted by farm animals accounts for more than half the country's greenhouse gases - but the plan was dropped after widespread protests.

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Week ending January 1st 2006

African commentators have welcomed the Montreal commitment to formal talks on a post-Kyoto greenhouse gas regime, which should secure the future of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). "This is a significant victory in the context of these highly contested negotiations," said Richard Worthington of the South African Climate Action Network. "While overall progress to limit global greenhouse gas emissions is still unacceptably slow, these outcomes offer the possibility of multilateral actions, within the shrinking window of opportunity, sufficient to avert a climate chaos that would give rise to hundreds of millions of environmental refugees."

There is, however, concern that Africa will be excluded from the major benefits of an expansion in CDM projects. Ken Newcombe, who pioneered carbon trading at the World Bank, says the European Union has discriminated against Africa by prohibiting investment in forestry and agriculture projects, creating "effectively a trade barrier against the poor." Lwazikazi Tyani, head of South Africa's CDM authority, reckons that the timescale of major energy projects and the fact the few African countries have national CDM certification authority yet "locks much of Africa out of the benefits of CDM."

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Three environmental organizations have filed a law suit seeking protection for the polar bear under the United States Endangered Species Act. If the lawsuit is successful, the polar bear will become the first species officially recognized as at risk from climate change. "Global warming and rising temperatures in the Arctic jeopardize the polar bear's very existence. Polar bears cannot survive without sea ice." said Melanie Duchin, a Greenpeace spokesperson.

"As global warming continues, more bears are going to die. This is very predictable, it's common sense... They can't survive if their habitat disappears," said Kassie Siegel of the Center for Biological Diversity. "To ensure these bears survive, we need to reduce the pollution that is melting their habitat. The Endangered Species Act is a safety net for plants and animals facing extinction. Listing will provide important protections for this majestic animal."

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Climate modellers predict that global warming could melt almost all of the Arctic permafrost lying within 3.5 metres of the soil surface by the end of the century. David Lawrence of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States warns that "there's a lot of carbon stored in the soil. If the permafrost does thaw, as our model predicts, it could have a major influence on climate." The carbon will be released as thawed vegetation decomposes.

The Arctic permafrost stores about 30 per cent of global soil carbon. Lawrence reckons that "in terms of its impact on the global climate, I don't see how it can be good news, but just how bad it is is unclear. It's very difficult to see how we can halt it. We may be able to slow it down." Reducing emissions could cut the permafrost loss from a 90 per cent decline, under a high-emissions scenario, to close to 60 per cent under a low-emissions scenario. The melting permafrost would also release large amounts of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean and this could affect global ocean currents.

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Updated: April 29th 2015