Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary

Global Energy Trends

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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global greenhouse gas emissions could rise by 52 per cent by the year 2030 unless action is taken to reduce energy consumption. The IEA's World Energy Outlook for 2005 predicts that, if current trends continue, energy demand is set to rise by over 50 per cent over the next 25 years. Without extra investment in oil facilities, oil prices will rise substantially. "These projected trends have important implications and lead to a future that is not sustainable," according to IEA head Claude Mandil.

The IEA's medium- to long-term energy projections are generated using the World Energy Model. The model has been run under three different scenarios - the Reference Scenario, the World Alternative Policy Scenario (where importing nations take action to cut demand and change the pattern of fuel use) and the Deferred Investment Scenario (where producers delay spending, inadvertently or deliberately). The model analyses global and regional energy demand and supply prospects, the environmental impact of energy use and energy sector investment needs through to 2030.

Commenting on the projections, Klaus Toepfer, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, said that "this is a grim prognosis based on business as usual. So it must be a clear signal that, in order to avoid such a disaster, we must deploy technologies and adopt economic measures that are already available and feasible."

British Petroleum (BP) has published the 54th Statistical Review of World Energy. As in last year's report, growing energy demand and developments in China dominate the 2005 review.

During 2004, global energy consumption grew by 4.3 per cent, the largest ever annual increase in global consumption in volume terms. Energy demand in China rose by 15.1 per cent during 2004 and, over the past three years, Chinese energy demand has increased by 65 per cent. China now consumes 13.6 per cent of the world's energy.

Global carbon emissions rose by 4.5 per cent during 2004. Disturbingly, this is the highest annual percentage increase since 1976 and the highest absolute increase on record.

Further information
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy can be downloaded. There is also a facility to generate custom graphs of energy trends.